Barfoot & Thompson's November sales show a steady market, with sales firm and prices holding their own

Barfoot & Thompson had a strong rise in sales in November, while selling prices held steady.

The agency, which is the largest in Auckland, sold 941 residential properties in November, up 6.4% compared to October and up a whopping 24.3% compared to November last year.

The number of homes sold in November was also only slightly below the number of sales achieved in November 2016 (947) and November 2015 (986).

Prices were also steady, with the average sale price in November coming in at $937,792, which is the highest average price so far this year but below the averages of December, May, March and February last year.

The median price was $850,750 in November, down from $860,000 in October.

Overall, Barfoot's November results portray a market that is steady, with sales levels following normal seasonal trends and prices remaining within the fairly tight price bands that have been evident throughout 2017 and 2018.

Overall stock levels are also flat, with Barfoots having a total of 4853 residential properties available for sale at the end of November, compared to 4848 at the end of October and 4838 at the end of November last year.

"With stable prices and a solid number of properties to choose from, we anticipate trading in the run up to Christmas will be strong," Barfoot & Thompson director Kiri Barfoot said.

"During November 11% of all sales were of properties that sold for under $500,000, highlighting the growing attraction of the apartments and town houses now reaching the market," she said.

"At the end of last year sales in this price bracket were rapidly diminishing.

"This emphasises the growing opportunities for first time and modest income families to enter the housing market."

Barfoot Auckland

Select chart tabs »
The 'average price growth % year on year' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
The ' average price' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Average 
Median
The ' number sold' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
The ' new listings' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
The 'Auckland market share' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment or click on the "Register" link below a comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current Comment policy is here.

56 Comments

Cue the squabbling Spruikers and DGMers.

Right before the downturn, the complacent Spruiker is festing.

It must be a sign.

RP, will you concede that Aukland house prices are not minimum 5% down by this Christmas, as you predicted?

Hi Yvil,

Fair enough to start holding Retired-Poppy accountable for what he says here.

Retired-Poppy has repeatedly proclaimed that the Auckland median house price would fall by at least 5.0% (year-on-year) by the end of 2018.

His day of reckoning is fast approaching.......

TTP

Yvil, why are you so obsessed? I've already replied to you in another thread. I certainly predicted a 5% fall in Auckland house prices by this December. On May 4th, 2018, you predicted we are sliding towards another depression. (spot the difference in outlooks) Like BLSH commented, many Auckland locales have fallen more than 5%. Anyway, you're welcome to scrutinise my timeline as much as I can yours. Look at what's already taken place in Sydney. More declines are coming here as a flow on. I'd also take this opportunity to point out, I've remained consistent, whereas you seem to change depending on the article.

I asked you once where you predict Auckland house prices would be by December 2019. You replied "lower than where they are today" When pressed for a percentage you became hostile and told me to "figure it out for myself".

Yvil, when will the depression start? Should we all start digging our bunkers now? You do realize that if houses drop 50%, wages drop too? For those lucky enough to still have a job.....

Agent TTP, as for my day of reckoning as the "Crash Crusader", a 5% decline is hardly a crash. Only the complacent fool celebrates when the downturn is still yet to be had.

Hi Retired-Poppy,

It's good to see you moving towards accepting responsibility for your errors of judgement.

Good on you for doing so.

My respect for you certainly increases.

We can all make misjudgements and when we do it's best to take it on the chin - be upfront/straightforward about it.

TTP

Agent TTP, take from my comment what you will. Respect from an RE Agent is hardly worth bottling. It should be treated more with with suspicion ;-)

RP, I thought you had a bit more integrity, you called house values in Auckland to fall by min 5% they have not, why not just man up and concede you were wrong?

At least Nic admitted he was wrong when he called interest rates to be at 3.5% by this Xmas, good on him/her

Yvil, perhaps you're creating a slideshow to deflect your own shortcomings? Firstly, I'm hoping the following will go some way in helping you cope.

On this occasion, what turned me off is when obsessive hypocrites are now questioning one prediction amongst many that commentators (including you) were invited to make earlier this year by interest.co.nz. This was done in good spirit and I've not tried to hide from it. Of course my forecast missed the mark. It's obvious my timeline is questionable, my bias is not. I have no problem whatsoever presenting myself as wrong on occasions when questioned by those who practice integrity themselves.

Again, when should I dig my bunker?

Well who would of picked that then ? A stable market - and that's a good thing for all concerned.

But November was post foreign buyer ban. Surely not.

Maybe the foreigners bailed ?

Either way, you’d agree that their absence hasn’t crashed the housing market?

up
15

When a plane runs out of fuel, it doesn't immediately fall from the sky

When a DGM runs out of evidence, it doesn't immediately stop huffing and puffing.

TTP

When a REA runs out of listings, he/she doesn't immediately sell the audi?

Very funny TTP, thanks for the laugh

up
17

I never thought it would crash the market, but I do acknowledge the impact is less than I anticipated.

That said I still hold the view of falling property prices in NZ in 2019. I think this "housing shortage" has been blown out of the water with the poor auction clearance rates and over 6 months of Auckland housing stock on the market. That says a lot about affordability. Sentiment has certainly changed in recent weeks.

I think regardless, the main factor for me is what is occurring overseas and my personal view is we are on the verge of royal phuckery.

Marginal buyer effect will take time to settle in, ay Nic Johnson, if you’re around today?

No doubt the world is due for a slowdown. They come around every 10 years or so. I don’t think the impact on NZ’s housing market will/would be as extreme as most here expect though.

Yes but surely you agree it will be more extreme than 10 years ago right?

p.s - you're not implying I am Nic Johnson are you?

I think it will be less extreme than last time for NZ, despite interest rates being comparatively low already. Because reasons.

No, not implying you're Nic, just anticipating that he will chime in any second about marginal buyer effect.

The GFC was a pretty massive event, there's a good chance any coming recession will be less destructive globally. There is no pattern that each recession must be larger than the previous one. I wouldn't like to venture an opinion on what the impacts will be on NZ's property market in particular, because frankly no one knows.

Given the woeful auction clearance rates recently, this data seems a little contrary.

I'm sure that the % of properties being auctioned has dropped of as traditionally in NZ atleast, Auction's are preferred when the market hot. I'm seeing PBN's at this point.

Wait and Watch.

Wait and Watch........rent until you die.

Stable government = stable job market = people buying houses = people selling houses

Stable, but not effective.

The last govt sat on their hands for 9 years and did nothing on raising house prices. The lot before that did the same. This current one seems to be a bit more pro-active

So about the same as the lot they replaced?

Greg, to confirm the methodology here, this is B&T unconditional sales only? i.e. at Auction or where negotiation, after conditions are met. This would mean the impact of the FBB cannot be construed from these numbers as (from my understanding of the legislation) as long as the contract is signed prior to the ban (23 Oct) the conditions could be outstanding and not be in the data as unconditional until November or later.

Sorry Spruikers and DGMs, you may need to hold the vitriol until next year when some new data comes out...

shoak - Very Good. Read between the lines people. Remember to FOLLOW THE MONEY.

Might have to go through the auction results at a later date and see how many have a verified price on QV. Or how many have been relisted.

So the second worse sales volume since 2012, to put that in perspective in Nov 02 & 03 they did 1300 sales.

last November total sales for Auckland were 1925 and that was the lowest since the GFC so I expect total sales for this November to exceed that number, but lets not get carried away.

Still over 12000 on trade me and close to 13000 on realestate.co.nz, So plenty of stock available and a lot of it has been on the market for a fair while. Sometimes what cant sell tells you more that what does sell,

As expected. Next year was always going to be where the real action occurs, specially after the money laundering disclosure changes kick in. But hay...dont take my opinion....

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/109107340/auckland-house-buyers-sellers...

In Pakuranga had been to an Auction of a property with RV of $1.225 Million which failed and now are asking for offer above 900s - may take mid to high 900 offer.

And the data and experts are trying to prove that the market is stable.

Another very good property in the same street, which has an RV of a million and is marketedd for high 800s and the Market is stable (Same Property in boom time would have gone for high 900s to million Plus).

Media / Experts / Data does a balancing act, one day will be positive news and the next day negative - have to run the show/business BUT reality is that Housing Market atleast in Auckland is far worse and NOTHING near stable.

Denial Mode but the fact is that market is sliding down by the week and soon ................

what's the address?

But ASB economist Kim Mundy said it was more likely that the surge in activity had been brought forward by the foreign buyer ban, which came into force in late October.

"Barfoot & Thompson Auckland house sales fell in November, reversing some of the strong surge in sales over October. This fall in activity suggests that at least part of October's strong gain was likely activity bought forward to get ahead of the change in foreign buyer restrictions. However, the seasonally-adjusted 984 sales recorded in November was the second highest number of monthly sales since February 2018. "

Fear not folks, in fact wildly celebrate !!! ..... we are at the very start of the "great Auckland property comeback" !

I am so looking forward to to those wonderful NZ Herald headlines that read "couple make more on capital gains, than their 2 professional salaries comblned ! or that other dozee "property investor banks $230,000 in 18 months !!"

Those property investment companies should immediately change the tone of their radio ads, to reflect these fantastic times that are ahead !

All those incredibly gifted and astute property investors will again be able to say "I'll told you property doubles every 10 years - and that is a fact.....Jack"

Those 'baby boomers' can now rock up to the BBQ and again boast just how well they have done through property.

The media can now go back to positively highlighting our "lowest in the world (only NZ)" interest rates and the never ending supply of buyers, that will only go on to buy these properties.....with a view to such spectacular capital gains !

The next "The Block" will regain it's No. 1 in the ratings.

NZ's national weekend pastime will again become DIY ! ....Bunnings, Mitre 10 etc shareholders will have a very merry Christmas !

Yes folks, there has been so much "doom & gloom" lately ....get out there, join the party ! ....make that "inflated" offer on that leaky dump .... keep the banks happy ....LIVE THE DREAM !

Nice piece of sarcasm there Mr Ed.

Everything's going so well, they say.

Why'd the Reserve Bank feel so motivated to move faster than expected?

So the month after the FBB came into effect, B&T which is the largest in Auckland, sold 941 residential properties, up 6.4% compared to October and up a whopping 24.3% compared to November last year.

How is that possible?

on a seasonally adjusted basis, they sold less in Nov than in Oct.

Sales prior to the October ban may have only been concluded in November, which would explain the increase in sales.

REA's well adept at massaging their sales figures in very creative ways.

Does the SOLD include those sold at Auction to the Vendors themselves via Vendors' bids?????

In November 2017 house sales activity was extremely low due to the impact of the shock defeat of National government - comparing last November with this November is irrelevant.
941 sales is just a normal November month for Barfoots as evidenced by November 2015 with 986 sales and November 2016 with 947 sales.

The market price is dictated by what people have to spend. Like I’ve previously said, the median sell price stats can remain largely unchanged while more and more vendors are discounting to meet the market. Median price is an aggregate of transactions, it won’t tell you if properties have reduced in potential sales value over the last 6 - 12 months.

Absolutely correct. My friend had a budget of 800s and ealier he was planning to buy 3 bedroom unit for mid 700s or cross lease property for early to mid 800s but today he is able to buy a free standing house for 800s so will be opting for it or may be spend little more and buy what was earlier in a million as now have options.

A reduction in house values doesn’t reduce what your friend has to spend infact as you say if there are now much more desirable properties to be had he might spend that extra $50k. Suddenly hes $50k up in the median house price stats distribution. We are seeing plenty of anecdotes around vendors heavily discounting so it’d be foolish to assume stable medians are a sign of health.

Absolutely. This is what is happening. Also 2 and 3 bedroom units rates have not fallen as much as 900 plus or million dollar plus properties. So value for money is in buying those properties.

Don't suppose anyone will ask, but here goes: what sold where?
Answer is that 43% of sales were in Auckland City and Central Suburbs. NSC also had 20%
Rodney underperformed cf its listings.
Also, WHAT sold - ie how many sections, apartments, 3 or 4 bed stand alone etc.
Listings are continuing to fall. RE NZ listings for Rodney show it only having 1161 houses or townhouses listed for sale today. On October 30th it was 1143. Not exactly stellar is it?
People are pulling listings that not being offered what want for.

Credit cycle now in slight decline worldwide.
Speculative flow of capital (oh sorry I misspoke I. meant to say "investors") in Auckland housing "market" declining more by month.
No crash, just 3% pa decline for 4 years.
As we saw in 2007-11 in fact.

Housing slump on track to be the worst ever after prices tumble in Sydney and Melbourne .
This is actually an article from the MSM.
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/housing-slump-on-track-to-be-worst-ev...

Conflicting data coming out of Barfoots. Personally I believe this is the flat market calm before the storm. I don't think it will be as bad down here as it will be in Australia though. Long term I am very bullish on Auckland but I believe some suburbs will take a hammering during the next Global downturn which seems to be on the way. Auckland is one of the best cities in the world though and people will pay for paradise in the long term as many other cities become unsafe, polluted or turn to shit.