Breaking news: Fonterra raises milk price forecast range by 30c, to possibly as much as $7.55. More soon.

Activity has flattened out in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms with sales remaining at a low level

Activity has flattened out in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms with sales remaining at a low level

Barfoot & Thompson's auction numbers appear to have flattened out as autumn takes hold.

The agency marketed 155 properties for sale by auction in the week from April 1-7, exactly the same number as it marketed for auction in the previous week.

The sales rate was also virtually unchanged, with sales achieved on 34 properties, down just one from the previous week when sales were achieved on 35.

Sales rates at auction remain generally subdued and at Barfoot's major auctions last week the sales rates ranged from 17% at the Shortland St auction on April 3, where most of the properties offered were from central Auckland suburbs such as Parnell, Mission Bay, Glendowie and St Heliers, to 33% at the Shortland St auction on April 2, where most of the properties offered were from suburbs such as Blockhouse Bay, Mt Albert, New Windsor, and New Lynn.

At the big Manukau auction where 28 properties were offered, the sales rate was 25% and at the North Shore auction it was 19%, while no sales were recorded at a couple of the smaller auctions (see the table below for the full breakdown).

Details of all the properties offered and the results achieved are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

Barfoot & Thompson Auction Results 1-7 April 2019
Date Venue Sold Not Sold Total % Sold 
1 April On-site 6 17 23 26%
2 April Manukau 7 21 28 25%
2 April Shortland St, CBD. 4 8 12 33%
3 April Mortgagee/Court 1 4 5 20%
3 April Shortland St, CBD. 2 10 12 17%
3 April Whangarei 1 3 4 25%
3 April Shortland St, CBD. 4 14 18 22%
3 April Pukekohe 0 6 6 -
4 April North Shore 6 25 31 19%
4 April Shortland St, CBD. 0 8 8 -
5 April Shortland St, CBD. 3 4 7 43%
Total All venues 34 120 154 22%

You can receive all of our property articles automatically by subscribing to our free email Property Newsletter. This will deliver all of our property-related articles, including auction results and interest rate updates, directly to your in-box 3-5 times a week. We don't share your details with third parties and you can unsubscribe at any time. To subscribe just click on this link, scroll down to "Property email newsletter" and enter your email address.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

100 Comments

Comment Filter

Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).
27
up

So 78% didn't sell!
Must be time to have that chat about price expectations.

Vendors are still in Christmas mood, not ready to negotiate

Auction clearance rates don’t matter a toss......

Now is not an appropriate market for auctions anyway.

The gist of the matter is that following the housing boom of 2013-2016 the market remains steady/stable....... It’s been a very soft landing - with prices still climbing in some regions and holding well enough in Auckland.

TTP

22
up

LOL

I'm just curious, in your opinion what matters as an indicator for the direction of the property market?

19
up

Auction clearance rates don’t matter a toss......

In fairness, Toothy, coming out of winter last year you were often found citing the fact auction rates were starting to pick up nicely and a good summer for auctions lay ahead.

Hi RickStrauss,

I was correct - auction clearance rates did climb significantly coming out of winter 2018, as Gregg Ninness's regular reports recorded. And overall sales volumes were considerably higher over summer than you and your fiends here had predicted.

But auctions as a selling method are much less relevant during periods of flat/quiet market activity. Notably, the proportion of dwellings listed "By Negotiation" or at a $ price are much higher currently than during the boom of 2013-2016. Most buyers/vendors are aware of that.

TTP

Sounds like you're saying auction rates count when they're high, but not when they're low.

I made no predictions. You're welcome to point to one, should you find one. However, everyone certainly observed auction rates steadily sitting between 20% and 40% throughout the peak season.

See my reply to CN below... the main reason there are a lot more listings by negotiation is because once they fail to sell at Auction they go to a price or By Negotiation.. But yes, there is a slight decrease in the number of new listings trying an auction.. because the market is falling.

Cannot say about other area but Pakuranga, Howick, Buckland Beach and near by area have a fall of 10% to 20% in almost all properties and only houses where vendor is ready to meet the market achieves a sell. Agree not much fall in 650000 to 750000 houses but houses that were earlier selling for 1.1 or 1.2 milion are going for Mid 900s to million and houses in high 900s and million plus for high 800s to early 900s and some even for early 800s.

Also when Vendors has asking price of the house - same as originally purchase price few years back that in itself indicate the direction of the market.

As long as you are commenting for time pass is good but if you are serious investor than by bluffing/not accepting reality will only harm you.

In real estate of yore that was called "conditioning the vendor". Maybe it still is.

25
up

None from 6 at Puke and none from 8 at Shorty on 4th of April. (I think we can count that Shorty St auction as a golden duck for Barfoots) Must be pretty tense in the rooms with all these properties and no buyer competition. Just the auctioneer babbling on to himself for a couple of hours. Kind of embarrassing for the RE agents, after their marketing campaign, and all for nought.

23
up

....down hill momentum building, the pendulum has swung, the rush for the exits about to become a stampede. Interest rate cuts of a few points won't make a jot of difference. Bernard Hickeys 30% prediction about to proved correct.....just a timing issue.

Oh please ... give me strength. BH makes a claim and 20 years later you think it could happen and you say it proves he was right even though the property prices have risen exponentially. Have you not heard of timeliness and relevance Rastus? From now on the weather report can just say we are predicting xyz in auckland but not tell us which day or what time and then claim to be right 100 per want of the time. Better still BH or you could refer to NZ as one property location and dont break it into areas. If Auckland props are up there is more than likely somewhere that experienced a drop and then you can claim accurate property forecasting ... maybe even publish a book.

Chuckle...thanks for enlightening me.....

By July it will get worse.

Now peoplw who have purchased in last few years are getting away with 5% to 10% loss but by July will be blood path for all of them specially someone who has purchased at rediculous high price earlier and such speculators are many.

10
up

Dont forget the costs involved for the vendor...you pay weather the house is sold or not...

10
up

The RE's will be squeezing the vendors now...

Hi Davo36,

You write: "The RE's will be squeezing the vendors now..."

Note that the converse is also true......

The vendors will be squeezing the RE's now...

TTP

10
up

Kind of embarrassing for the RE agents, after their marketing campaign, and all for nought.
Nope, as I keep saying here, the RE agents don't care if it sells on the day or not. Now they have a very keen vendor.

And they are able to say "The market is slow, nothing's selling, if you want to sell then you'll need to lower your expectations."

10
up

Subdued? Hmmmm, comatose more like it.

17
up

Most of the little being sold is selling well below CV, on average 50-100K below. Makes you wonder where the council pulled the valuations from, thin air probably. Vendors are looking at that and wanting prices higher than CV which is why houses are not selling. Inflated CV's leading to inflated expectations. There needs to be a 20-30% reset of vendor expectations if they want to achieve a sale. Bet the RE's are not telling him that when they go to get the listing signed up. Great for FHB they need to be patient and wait, the tide is turning very fast.

That's the difference between heights of the market vs a falling one

But of course councils want to keep pumping up valuations. Because it kind of softens the blow when rates keep climbing, but as a percentage of your house value, doesn't seem toooo bad. But if valuations were to fall, the masses will question even louder what value is being returned on those rates.

18
up

Houses are going 10% to 20% below CV. One only has to find genuine seller (not all but many)

Recently a beautiful house in Pakuranga with CV of 1150000 went for 950000 and another with CV of 970000 went for 830000 and am talking abkut good quality free standing house with land size of more than 800 sqmt and house size more than 160 sqmt and in desirable area.

Also saw many houses which were earlier listed for mid to high 900s are now listed for high 800s and may be, will accept offer in mid 800s BUT still those houses are expensive in current market and houses listed for 1.1 Million plus drop by 100000Plus in asking price.

Have also seen houses listed with asking of the price that the vendor had purchased few years back (From sell history), and even if they sell at that asking, vendor will pay commison from his pocket but overall many are now ready to sell and take lose of 5% plus and this is Today - going forward will be worse.

Many houses listed for more than 2 to 3 months are those house where owner is testing the market like a house with CV of 1050000 has a asking of 1150000 and in todays market will be lucky to get 900000 (Where the feedback has been in Mid to high 800s) - Similary many either the agent has given high hope/appraisal to get listing or the vendor is trying their luck BUT where the vendor is serious are still getting sold out fast.

Market has changed and still another 10% from here on (which to happen is not much) and will be bloodbath for many and will trigger a chain reaction that for many will be......

Wait and watch.

13
up

Yep, and RE agents are just being the vultures they are, trying to get as much money off vendors as possible.
Our landlords have been trying to sell the house we live in since October. Initially, they put it on the market at $1.68M (CV is 1.7M).

After several months of no buyers (and literally no one showing up to open homes), they switched to 'price by negotiation', then a few weeks later to $1.45M. Now the RE agent convinced them to pay for an expensive marketing campaign that includes two open homes per week (no one showed up to one open home / week, so it makes sense to have two?) and an auction in May.
It's a leaky 5BR house in an amazing location. The problem is, there are multiple 'open home' signs on every corner along the whole East Coast Bays area. Shit's gonna hit the fan soon.

1) who wants a leaky house? And 2) what bank will lend $1 million plus on a leaky house?

Wouldn't be surprised if they don't get much above land value.

Infact now ifthe vendor sells without agent by themselves, may be by homesell will get extra $300000 to $40000 as many agents does not help to get extra in this type of market.

Vendor should acess by what is selling in their area for similar price and try themselves.

Many houses listed for more than 2 to 3 months are those house where owner is testing the market like a house with CV of 1050000 has a asking of 1150000 and in todays market will be lucky to get 900000 (Where the feedback has been in Mid to high 800s) ……Correct as just a house listed in BucklandsBeach/Howick and wonder if the Vendor actually wants to sell.

Anyone who wants to buy, should first identify if the vendor is serious though agents will say that Vendor is motivated but are mostly lying or do not complete the full sentence that vendor is motivated to sell at a premium which is hard to get for next few years :)

27
up

All seems to happen in slow motion, has been a long time coming. I find the mainstream media articles still talking up house prices really irresponsible.
First time buyers should be very very wary there is a very real risk of taking a big loss buying now.
Scary times for our economy lots of people will be quick to blame the coalition. But this problem is bigger than the current government and has been obvious for a long time for all parties that this wont end well.

It's actually really sad politicians have let things get this far out of whack and the two previous governments failed us by not showing true leadership on these issues. Now we are left up sh*t creek owned by Australian banks. All anyone really wanted was a place to live in this beautiful country.

It is the case that whoever is in power when the market slides gets the blame from voters, but yes this bubble has been building for a long time, with both the left and the right of politics on a neo-liberal economics bent for decades. It’s all fun and games when the market is rocketimg up by double figures a year (except for the inequality and rising unaffordability), not so much on the way down.

Yeah wally, I find it staggering when i have a conversation with most people - they simply have no idea what is going on with RE as they continue to consume the bulk rubbish appearing on msm. Just be grateful we have this site and DFA aus which are informing those who would otherwise also be in the dark.

Indeed Wally. I have often wondered if the Herald could be the target of a class action lawsuit from House buyers it has conned.

12
up

Overall 22% auction sales rate. When was the last time it was that low? Ever?

Remember that the above results are in light of the current shortage of housing in Auckland as claimed by many property market promoters, real estate agents and economists. That narrative is only useful in the context of town planning. A very misleading statistic if you're using this number to assess future property market prices.

Here is the chief economist of the Auckland Council saying that there is a shortage of 46,000 dwellings in Auckland - note he is talking about underlying supply and underlying demand, not effective supply and demand.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/97513/auckland-councils-chief-econom...

visited a mate in blockhouse bay, his neighbour own a 5 bed, 3 bath with 4 (FOUR) families living in it..

There are families who need a house to live in. At current price levels many families are sharing - I know of people living in converted garages in Auckland. That might suggest a shortage of AFFORDABLE housing in Auckland ...

If property prices in the rental market were lower, they might be able to afford or choose to rent - there are currently over 2,100 properties with 3 bedrooms or more currently listed for rental in Auckland on trademe.co.nz.

If property prices in the ownership market were lower they might then be able to afford or choose to buy - there are currently over 9,300 properties with 3 bedrooms or more listed for sale in Auckland at current price levels on trademe.co.nz

True, looking at TM at the moment there are so many houses on the market. Lots seem to be marked 'price reduced'.

Just looks like not enough of them have been reduced enough to attract buyers.

Remember that the above results are in light of the current shortage of housing in Auckland as claimed by many property market promoters, real estate agents and economists ......AND Also very low interest rate BUT for a million $ property have to pay a mortage of say $900 instead of $1000 BUT is $900 Plus.

FHB buyer should wait and not rush. Understand that compare to last few years theyr are finding deals but what seems deals are still high and will save atleast 5% to 15% from here on. It is a matter of time when picks up momentum as the process has just started in last few months.

Just when you thought it couldnt get worse........

18
up

Burn baby burn! The bigger the bubble the more painful the pop, and boy oh boy is this bubble going to pop.

Hi Taubin,

What bubble?

TTP

If Barfoot and Thompson cannot sell a property then give it to another agency who can. Light it up on Gavl. The many auctions I've seen and monitored on Gavl have good selling ratios even in subdued Orkland

14
up

Yep, you keep telling yourself that.

10
up

That's surprising Houseworks. I've attended quite a few auctions that were also on Gavl and my experience has been that very few of the bids came via Gavl, most are direct from the floor or phone bids via an agent.

No only a few of the auctions have bids from Gavl bidders, that was not my point Greg. Rough numbers, there seems to be about half of all Gavl auctions sold under the hammer. Double the barfoot success rate!! I am happy to be corrected by you if you have run the numbers.

Thanks Houseworks. I'm not sure which auctions you are referring to, but the auctions I attend that are covered by Gavl don't seem to have results that are much different to those without Gavl. I'll talk to some of the agents involved and see if they think it has made much of a difference. Cheers.

This is what is happening. 3 Months with one agent and than suddenly another agency comes in. Vendor should realize that instead of changing agency better change/reduc the price based on market feedback (When the house were going ridiculously HIGH - was justified that it is buyer/market that determines the price SO the same applies now when the market is Falling if for a million dollar house best offer is in 800s than that is the market price NOW - Take it or leave it.

4/5 Mortgagee Court sales failed. What does that mean? No one willing to even pay the level of the outstanding debt?

All four of the mortgagee properties that didn't sell were withdrawn from sale prior to the auction. That is quite a common occurrance with mortgagee sales, usually because the bank and property owner have come to a new arrangement at the last minute. 

Thanks for clarifying Greg. It's not clear from the Auction results page which ones were the mortgagee court auctions. Appreciate your response.

@ Joe Wilkes - Have a look at the Barfoot auction results on their website
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/sell/latest-auction-results

Thats right Joe....Not a very good sign at all..

Hi Joe, I've sold hundreds of mortgagee sale properties (albeit in the USA during the GFC). I might be wrong but I expect the process is pretty similar in some ways in NZ. Banks won't just want to recoup the debt. They'll want the maximum the market can support. In Arizona, many homes where the mortgages were in arrears ended up sold as 'short sales', ie the bank came to an arrangement with the mortgagor and accepted a pay off (from a buyer) prior to repossessing the home. Very paper-intensive, time-consuming and stressful process for all. I think we are a long way off that happening here, but there are certainly market similarities that are interesting. Auckland looks a lot like Arizona did shortly after the declines began. It took a few months of flattish prices and then values fell off a cliff. This is possibly one of the worst times to buy in NZ's history and it's very worrying to see media and agents continue to try and talk up the market.

Any estimates for how long the downward trend will run?

You've tempted me into it Jock. I'm going to say the bottom will be sometime between 2023-2025

Probably when house price to income is between 5 to 7

11 Kenny Rd sold under the hammer over the weekend with 6 active bidders at the onsite auction. The sold price of $2.41M is a touch over the $2.2M CV. Dgz.
https://rwremuera.co.nz/auckland/remuera/11-kenny-road-rmu26347/

meanwhile for the same $$$ .......https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5620-La-Jolla-Blvd-La-Jolla-CA-92037/... .....surfs up dude !

It is a rather long commute from California though....

I used to live in La Jolla and would take it absolutely any day over Auckland. We only moves here because my wife is from here. I miss that place every day.

@ Taubin, La Jolla is awesome .....you can go surfing a block away from your house ! I have lived most of my life in Auckland and the "value" you get for the land and buildings here, when you buy a residential property is just crap - the build standards are "shady" with either it being poorly insulated, cheap fittings, "leaky building" syndrome etc etc ....while your $650,000 piece of land will be a south facing, no view, cold & damp piece of dirt in the back blocks of Mt Roskill ....and that is meant to be "affordable" as most FHB's are paying well over 50% of their income in mortgage repayments ........that's 3rd world living not first world !

I have been investing in residential property in the States since 2012 ....did a trip to Phoenix in 2011 for a taste, then got into the Maryland (just outside DC) market. The overall gross rental return from what I paid for my properties plus renovations is 14% .....need I say more.

Anyone who buys a house right now in Auckland has to have a screw loose ! .......wait people, wait !

They got a pretty good price. Just goes to show what a good renovation and presentation can still achieve. That house doesn't even have a garage. Last sold for only 750k in 2009. I wonder what it would have fetched unrenovated? Probably still a good return, maybe an even better one if you subtract the renovation costs although it doesn't look like anything too massive was done so it's hard to determine.

Yeah I agree Zach. It's a good price, and it's outside of the DGZ boundary as well. I also attended another onsite auction just off Orakei Rd in DGZ about a month ago. It sold for $2.7M and has a CV of $2.1M. https://rwremuera.co.nz/auckland/remuera/9-komaru-street-rmu26266/

Hi Double-GZ,

There's no disputing the pulling-power of those magic three letters: "D", "G" & "Z"......

TTP

Ha-ha! Nice one DGZ. Talk about the embarrassed cherry picking in the midst of a declining market :) Leafy suburbs are sinking too.

13
up

What is wrong with NZ's MSM ? - how can it be that Sydney's auction clearance rates are around double that of Auckland .....yet NZ'S MSM is quite keen to report that Sydney is "heading for a fall" etc while Auckland is "steady as she goes"? ......I can see them now sitting around the editors table at the granny herald saying "whatever you do, don't write anything to scare the horses" ..... it ALWAYS comes back to VESTED INTERESTS !

11
up

And who pays the wages!

In NZ (may be in other countries also) most experts, study is sponsered and / or have vested interest and mostly everyone in media, politics, experts and who all matters in building policies, have number of houses and have vested interest.

NZ need a leader who thinks for average Kiwi.......Not just dole (As giving Dole also does not help in the long run) but overall fair system

(Comment irrelevant to this story deleted, Ed).

Auckland and Sydney have very different auction cultures.

ZS, how so? I've lived in both places and I don't see that they are much different at all.

It’s just diffrunt okay?

Hi voiceofreason,

NZ & Australia are different countries with different demographics for a start.......

Auckland happens to have a chronic shortage of houses and Sydney a glut.

Really, who would believe they are not much different at all? That’s like saying chalk and cheese are not much different at all.

TTP

"Auckland happens to have a chronic shortage of houses ".... Statement of the year... and a sale rate of 22%...HA...HA.....HA

... and yet Sydney has fewer properties for sale (adjust for population) than Auckland.

Interesting that you can define Sydney as having a "glut" and in the same breath describe Auckland as having a "Chronic shortage".

FYI, this is the narrative that many property market commentators, property market promoters and many others with vested interests repeat.

Property investors believe it is the most important influence on property prices, and gives them confidence to buy and use lots of debt to finance those purchases.

- https://www.interest.co.nz/property/97513/auckland-councils-chief-econom...

Tothepoint,

Not quite sure what your vested interests are in respect of Auckland property - property market promoter, property market commentator, property mentor, real estate agent, property investor, property developer, etc. I recall that you have been looking at property for over 50 years, so perhaps your beliefs are the result of 50 years of personal experience in property and in your framework of understanding how property prices work, demographics are critical and the essential variable.

FYI, demographics showed that there was a underlying housing shortage in Sydney in April 2016, yet by December 2018 prices had dropped 11% from their peak due to the imbalance between effective supply and effective demand. Here are some excerpts:

Australia faces critical housing shortage
Thu, Apr 07, 2016 - 5:50 AM

AUSTRALIA'S population growth is among the strongest and most rapid in the world, resulting in an increasing demand for residential property, retail goods and business services. This then feeds into logistics, warehousing and manufacturing, and demand to occupy office property. Questions have been raised as to which Australian city will benefit most.

As the population of both Melbourne and Sydney is set to double over the next 35 years, both of these cities will reap the rewards.

RESIDENTIAL MARKET

Sydney is a global city, and the largest capital city in Australia. Home to four of the five wealthiest residential regions in Australia, it has an internationally recognised luxury residential market.

Shayne Harris, head of luxury residential sales at Savills Luxury Residential, noted that Sydney's luxury residential market and off-the-plan market is primarily being driven by international demand and more specifically Asian demand. With its close ties to Asia for business, together with personal investment, the wider benefits such as education and migration make Sydney compelling.

Sydney's recent population figures have only served to highlight the existing shortfalls in housing supply, where the undersupply gap continues to grow.

With a resident population of some 4.8 million people housed in approximately 2.2 million dwellings, Savills Research believes this is below average for cities of a similar size. As the population of Sydney grows towards 10 million residents over the next 30 years, apartments are forecast to make up a larger proportion of total dwelling stock (about 10 per cent of all dwellings in Sydney are apartments).

Government statistics predict that Sydney will need to create an additional 623,850 homes over the next 25 years, just to keep up with the population influx. Forecasts show that Sydney is falling well below its annual target, and Mr Harris believes that the limited additional supply will cause upward pressures in the foreseeable future for both rents and capital values.

Melbourne has a resident population of some 4.5 million people housed in approximately 1.9 million dwellings. The City of Melbourne currently contains approximately 122,000 residents in just over 58,000 dwellings.

In light of these numbers, and the dynamics of supply and demand, it is our firm belief that a city the size of Melbourne can cope with, and will demand, further additions to its inner city residential market, which covers approximately 5 per cent of the total housing market.

While the natural increase in the population can generally be accommodated in the existing housing stock, overseas migrants generally require a new dwelling. Over the last decade, new arrivals have demanded a total of 750,000 new dwellings in Melbourne. This is about 50 per cent of all new housing stock built in that period.

It is little wonder that construction has struggled to keep up with demand and that a combination of investor-driven and owner-occupied driven solutions to supply have been required.

With a critical short supply of housing, record immigration levels, lowest interest rates on record and bucket loads of first-time buyers, there is a vital need for more housing.

Source: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/hub/property-2016/australia-faces-criti...

Suggesting an undersupply of housing assumes that everyone in the country is willing and able to buy a home, which is not the case. Just because you build it doesnt mean they will come buy it. Young adults are continuing to live at home with their folks, immigrants are sharing bedrooms in boarding houses, locals are becoming homeless and sleeping in their cars or in emergency motels. The only thing there is a shortage of is affluent people with big deposits and the ability to service a mortgage. There is no undersupply of housing for people who can afford to buy a house, they currently have a record number of houses on the market to choose from. There is only an undersupply of houses cheap enough for those currently locked out of the housing market by lack of savings or bank responsible lending laws. The only thing that will fix that undersupply is for house prices to drop 30-40% thus enabling more buyers to be able to afford to enter the market. Until then, the housing inventory will continue to pile up making a mockery of all those who believed the fantasy of there "not being enough houses".

Tothepoint,

You might want to understand how the housing shortage numbers are calculated before citing that the housing shortage in Auckland is a reason for continuing rising property prices.

The article calculates the housing shortage in Auckland. (refer https://www.interest.co.nz/property/98008/new-estimates-showing-much-low...)

How you can have a housing shortage and a fall in property prices at the same time?

Note that this is underlying demand for housing in Auckland. Factors which impact effective demand (on which the market prices of residential dwellings are based) are not accounted for.

Note that for the basis of this calculation for the housing shortage for underlying demand, no adjustment is made for changes in demand due to changes in house prices.

The calculation of underlying demand is used for the purposes of long term town planning, and infrastructure needs (such as sewerage, parks, roads, schools, etc) due to an increasing population. Underlying demand is not useful for estimating future property market prices.

For example, the housing shortage number calculated for underlying demand would remain unchanged in the following 2 extreme situations, (assuming current household incomes, population, population growth & the same number of residents per dwelling).

1) if the current median house price in Auckland was $10,000. In this case there would likely be a huge increase in the number of active property buyers which would increase effective demand (and would be above underlying demand). People who were not owner occupiers would buy at this price. A large number of people who are already owner occupiers would also become active buyers and buy at this price - buy a house for their children, grandchildren, parents, holiday homes for out of towners, etc as they are cheap. People who could afford it from all over New Zealand and abroad (such as Australians and Singaporeans who are exempt from the foreign buying rules, and New Zealanders living overseas), are likely to become active buyers in the market. The underlying demand calculation does not incorporate this.

2) if the current median house price in Auckland was $10,000,000. In this case, there would likely be fewer active property buyers in the market. The number of effective demand would be fewer than that for underlying demand. The underlying demand as calculated above would remain unchanged - after all there is no change to population estimates or the assumption of the number of people living in each house. There would still be a "housing shortage" as calculated by economists using the population numbers, but in reality there would be few buyers active in the market if the median house price in Auckland was $10,000,000. Very few would have the deposit necessary to buy, and very few would meet the bank lending criteria particularly on debt servicing.

This is the reason why the underlying housing shortage is a misleading number (as calculated by economists, etc, and quoted by mainstream media, politicians, property market commentators, etc) as a justification for future house prices to continue rising. It is used as a convenient narrative by those in the real estate industry to persuade those to enter the residential real estate market.

Economists in their calculations of the underlying housing shortage, and talking about future property market prices, have failed to incorporate the fact that:
1) as prices rise, effective demand falls
2) as prices fall, effective demand rises.

This is introductory economics and the basics of demand in a free market. Underlying demand is unchanged, yet effective demand changes. This is how there can be a housing shortage (due to underlying demand), yet property prices fall (due to an imbalance between effective supply and effective demand).

So when talking about a housing shortage, there are two numbers to understand, each useful for their own specific purposes:

1) Level one supply and demand - this is underlying supply and demand - this is the most commonly referred to and discussed by most property market commentators, media, politicians, etc. This is useful for long term town planning purposes for local councils to determine infrastructure needs.
2) Level two supply and demand - this is effective supply and demand - and this is the key determinant of property market prices - and this is how property markets can go from being a buyers market to a sellers market (and vice versa). This is how the number of days to sell a property is impacted.

@Zachary Smith, have you lived in both cities? I have and both cities are full of kiwis.

yeah, ridiculous and clearly vested interest at play.
Which is why we need this website more than ever! Independent and objective journalism is not quite dead in NZ!
You can spin all you like, but that won't avoid the truth that the housing market (at least in Auckland) is dead, and prices will give (but who really knows by how much).

Just a reminder that currently there are 1,148 properties listed for sale in Auckland for sale by auction on trademe.co.nz. That is out of a total number of 14,059 properties listed for sale in Auckland on trademe.co.nz.

So currently about 8.2% of total listings for sale in Auckland are being offered for sale by auction.

Its not a great way to look at it. Auction is the method that gets tried first, then they fall back to Negotiation or with a price. So to look at how prevalent Auction is as a sales method you need to look at listings within the last 3 weeks or less, so you capture all the ones that are still in the auction window.

A quick check on Houses in Auckland City, of the last 100 listings on RE.co.nz, 49 Auctions, 31 Negotiation, 5 Tender, 9 Priced, and 6 others (Deadline sale mostly). A few of those are probably re-listing with new agents after the first attempt failed, so may slightly under-represent the true ratio of auction listings.

I think, as a tenant, you can decline open homes, and have viewing by appointment only. It upsets the RE agents no end..

Indeed, if the landlord is trying to sell the house out from under you, negotiate reduced rent in exchange for one or two fixed times per week for private viewings (with 24hour notice minimum) and scheduled open homes. Its a pain in the a** and you don't have to bend over and take it. They have two choices.. negotiate and be reasonable, or give you notice and miss out on all the rent until they find a buyer and settle. (And also possibly have to pay to dress the house to get the best price since an empty house is not as appealing as a tidy furnished house.)
Oh, and you have the right to be present during open homes and viewings too. The house is full of your belongings and random strangers are going to be wandering around...

It's best not to have tenants when selling a home. You usually need to do the place up a bit and stage it.

Depends whether they can afford to go without the rent for 6-8weeks while they try to sell. 8 weeks of finding an extra $500/week to service the mortgage from their own income won't be easy for those that got into the rental game in the last few years with maximum leverage.

The market is dead.

Wow 22%. When was the last time they reported a percentage at that or lower?

Judging by the number of houses for sale in Auckland and the number actually sold each month it looks like there is up to 12 months of stock available at any one time. Hard to reconcile that with the so called “crisis “ let alone a housing shortage. The Lefty Loonies have conned the public just to get into power. Kiwi build is a farce with houses ending up more expensive than used houses next door which come complete with all the extras.

Well, that went off the rails quickly...

Kiwibuild is corporate welfare for developers who face going bankrupt. When a Kiwibuild house doesnt sell at the advertised price, the Govt is obligated to buy it, presumably at that price. So we end up with the situation where a 2 bedroom Kiwibuild house is for sale at $459k whereas the 3 bedroom house next door (built at the same time by the same developer) sold on market last year for $422k.

Current number of listings for sale in Auckland on trademe.co.nz : 14,030
Number of property transactions in last 12 months in Auckland 21,590

Number of months to sell current inventory listings for sale: 7.8
Number of weeks to sell current inventory listings for sale: 33.8

For context look at https://www.interest.co.nz/Charts/Real%20estate/Housing%20inventory

I see a house for sale near me that is advertised with an asking price close to 200k less that they paid for it two years ago. I do recall at the time that I suspected the buyer paid too much for it in 2017. However it may not be the disaster it looks like at first.

If in 2017 you sold a house you were likely to sell at a premium price. A house that costs 2M is unlikely to be your first home so it is likely you have sold a house to move up to that 2M home. Maybe had 500k -1M appreciation on that home. So you sell that home and buy the 2M home. Two years later you sell at a 200k loss and buy somewhere else. That somewhere else, if in the same region, is likely to be cheaper as well.

When someone who has been in the market a long time sells at a loss they need to consider all the gains they have made over the entire period of buying and selling, add it all up and subtract that 200K from the total.

The real indicator of a housing slump will be the value of the first home market. If someone's first home goes down in price then it is a bit of a disaster but even then not if they are in it for the long term or are buying and selling in the same market. Only if you wanted to get out of the market altogether or if life circumstances change through divorce, job loss, etc.

It makes me think that housing value drops are not particularly catastrophic. Only for the negatively geared with too much inventory, the too greedy. This is the nature of gambling I guess.

Houses in 700s and 800s have fallen but not that much (Not Much) as houses which wer Million Plus.

2 Bedroom house in Farm Cove sold in December for $800000 (part of 2 Unit) and this month the other 2 Bedroom Unit went for $740000 (Was marketing for High 700s to early 800s and has a CV of $900000). First unit was back unit so slightly more land space to use and better but still on paper both are same - 2 Bedroom unit and can see a drop of appox 8% in just few months and the person who bought in december/January, if were to sell today will make a loss of 10% (Same thing earlier ewas going up - 10% in weeks/months and similar thing is happening now but oppsoiste - falling). This may be few but still jhas started to happen and in a Very Good area - Farm Cove.

Million Plus houses are selling at 10% to 20% below what would have fetched during Boom.

I guess low end (If you can call 800s - low end :) are holding for the interest rate and FHB are moving as are unable to get into 900/million+ unless have saved good deposit.

The process has started and matter of time when their would be significant change in all type of house/units/area.

We are thinking of selling soon with a view to move to Huapai. Reading up on the market now I am totally unsure of whether to just get a move on and sell with the view of being a cash buyer if the market is dropping
Opinions?

That Bernard Hickey's dream of 30% drop might come true after all.. Just takes a bit of time to get there!

The magnitude of a property price fall is really dependent on the banks willingness to extend and pretend a financially stressed borrower or to strictly enforce loan agreements on financially stressed borrowers. I recall stories where some households went from P&I loans to interest only loans to buy owner occupiers time. As for property investors, property developers, some banks may be less forgiving for large loan exposures. There is very little evidence to predict what the banks will do unless the banks are themselves in survival mode due to capital or liquidity constraint pressures. What we do know is that there are about NZ$66bn of interest only loans / revolving credit secured by residential real estate - these borrowers may have less financial flexibility in the event of an unexpected shock or economic recession, and may need to sell under these circumstances.

ICYMI, for those readers interested, here are Bernard Hickey's comments.

In early 2008 I argued that house prices would drop 30 per cent from their peak over the following two years.

That didn't happen as the Reserve Bank provided lending support to the big banks here, Australia's government provided a deposit guarantee, the Official Cash Rate was slashed from 8.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent and our unemployment rate stayed relatively low. An extraordinary effort by the powers-that-be prevented a collapse. I revised my forecast last year to a 15 per cent fall in house prices from the peak and over a longer period.

The artificial pumping of air into the market through late 2008 and early 2009 helped hold prices above their 'natural' level during the crisis. Now the artificial air is leaking out after the crisis, the housing market is starting to subside, albeit slowly.

The 'natural' level of house prices that is sustainable over time is best measured by affordability. Our measure of the proportion of after tax median pay needed to service an 80 per cent mortgage on a median house is still around 60 per cent.

Household income levels are still well over 5 times house values in many of the big cities. That is plainly unsustainable, particularly as the credit that fuelled the bubble is slowly withdrawn.

Source: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=106...

Have reached more than half the target of 30% in many areas in Auckland. Give Time till July and may be 30% target is reached. Matter of time and is When and not If.