Vendors may have to make some tough decisions as auction sales rates start to decline in April, with sales particularly weak in Auckland

Vendors may have to make some tough decisions as auction sales rates start to decline in April, with sales particularly weak in Auckland

The number of homes being auctioned is holding up fairly well but the sales rate is declining as autumn winds blow across the housing market.

Interest.co.nz monitored 266 residential property auctions in the first week of April (April 1-7), about the same number per week that were monitored over March, which is traditionally the busiest month of the year for the residential property market.

Of those, sales were achieved on 30% of the properties, which was down from the March average of 37%.

If that trend continues, it could suggest a hardening of attitudes towards price by prospective buyers and a build up of unsold properties to be sold by negotiation post auction. That could mean some vendors may have to make a tough call and accept a more realistic price or withdraw their property from the market.

Where interest.co.nz was able to match up properties' selling prices with their Rating Valuations (RVs), exactly 50% sold for more than their RVs and 50% sold for less.

However the sales rate was weaker than the national average in Auckland, where it dropped to just 26% last week compared to the March average of 36% for Auckland.

But although fewer properties were selling at auction in Auckland, the percentage that were selling for more than their RVs held firm at 36% compared to the March average of 38%.

Details of the individual properties auctioned and the results achieved are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

You can receive all of our property articles automatically by subscribing to our free email Property Newsletter. This will deliver all of our property-related articles, including auction results and interest rate updates, directly to your in-box 3-5 times a week. We don't share your details with third parties and you can unsubscribe at any time. To subscribe just click on this link, scroll down to "Property email newsletter" and enter your email address.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

52 Comments

Comment Filter

Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).
16
up

So from 62% selling below RV, its climbed to 64%, won't be long before its 100%

For auctions only. Only a small % of all sales are via auction in Auckland, and even less for the rest of the country.

Yes, about 55-65% of listings trying by auction, but 74% of those failing to sell by auction does mean only a small % actually do sell by auction..

Evidence please

Are you suggesting I try find the evidence for you?

That is the evidence, last time i checked it was 51% of the new listing by auction, the time before that it was 60%. ( Of houses in Auckland).

So take off your socks so you can count past 12 and get counting.

So it is quite feasible that 90-95 percent of all Auckland sales are currently below 2017 RVs.

Possible, but highly improbable. Tell yourself whatever makes you happy though.

Nothing new, few sales & steady prices

Where did the story mention steady prices?

There you go:

"Where interest.co.nz was able to match up properties' selling prices with their Rating Valuations (RVs), exactly 50% sold for more than their RVs and 50% sold for less"

That doesn't at all imply steady prices.

How can that be steady? Last year almost 100% were selling above RV

18
up

26% clearance rate, and 64% selling below 2 year old RVs in Auckland. I hope you take those rose tinted glasses off before driving, with that much tint you're practically driving blind.

The story doesn't say that 64% are selling below RV, it says, quote:

"Where interest.co.nz was able to match up properties' selling prices with their Rating Valuations (RVs), exactly 50% sold for more than their RVs and 50% sold for less"

The 64% below RV is Auckland, the 50% is the full country (with both numbers referenced in the article). By inference, outside of Auckland, the majority of auction sales are above RV...

Exactly, Yvil.

Plus the NZ economy remains upbeat - with high employment, robust growth, low inflation and low interest rates.

Property is a great place to be. (See the article in today's Herald about the Princes Street apartment development: confidence in the market is hardly lacking at the top level.)

TTP

10
up

Do you really consider that an ‘article’ TPP? Or was it an advertorial for the Sanctuary Group who are running the first open home for the complex this weekend?
Presumably for the infinitesimal number not already sold to ‘High profile sports people, captains of industry, movie makers, business people, those with children at university...young professionals...empty nesters...people returning from overseas...those wanting to leave the suburbs...’) - with such a wide demographic I’m astonished there are any left.

Hi Yesyesyes,

Given you think the Princes Street apartment development caters for "such a wide demographic", I assume you may be interested in purchasing one yourself........

Best you say yes, yes, yes and get in quickly - while there are still some left.

TTP

10
up

If everything was has rosy as you say, then everyone wouldn't be talking about an OCR cut in May would they!!!!

18
up

Commence the realistic, common sence commentry, with the numerous thumbs up, verses those who are blinded by their own vested interests in property - head in the sand mentality. Get the hint... the lack of thumbs up, means you dont get much support on this forum... dont know why you guys bother!

Hi BacktoPerth,

Those who focus on the "thumbs up" icon are being somewhat superficial in their analysis - to say the least.

TTP

12
up

And those who revert their eyes away to what is common sense and truth, is either blindly unaware or purposely presenting a narrative which benefits their own interests. TPP- which one describes you?

Hi BacktoPerth,

I'll back substance over trivia.

Am always happy to be judged by the validity/reliability of my contributions here.

Notably, over the last two years, the housing market has tracked exactly as I deduced......

Because I haven't shouted crash, crash, crash, I don't collect many "thumbs up" (your preoccupation).

I'm not an active participant in the property market. My interest is in monitoring the market and quietly watching life's passing parade.

TTP

So the answer to my question TPP is that you are blindly unaware! Makes sense... thank you for the response to my question.

TPP you must be so rich, and have so much debt, to purchase all your property. Your company must be huge if you follow your mantra, buy, buy buy.

Good luck to you, easy money.

Getting lots of thumbs up is simply a proof that you think like the masses, definitely NOT what I'm aspiring to

Buying property is thinking like the masses, hence all the debt tied up in the Banks.

Creating a start-up business and employing people based on an idea, and growing that idea is not. Even a normal business is not following the masses.

But property is.

All people on here are commenting about housing, I'm sure a lot of investors who buy houses think the market moves up and down. Probably why some have billions and others have thousands.

13
up

Nothing new. Dead market.

Not dead yet... seriously ill and waiting to see if the Doc is going to prescribe a shot of "stimulus" or just let the market sweat it out.

Hi Fritz
Just "man-flu": as in one thinks that they are dead.
Some drivers still there - continuing low (and likely lower) interest rates, high historic immigration, housing shortage, and increasing activity from FHB (RBNZ).
Expect some continuing correction and seasonal drop over next six months but probably 5% or so but unlikely more than 10 to 15%. Very unlikely to be a "bubble burst" = being a sudden and severe drop of 15%+.

No real news here , vendors' unrealistic greed remains steady

11
up

Many houses with asking are very high compare to what buyers are ready to pay as a result unsold for over 2 months to 3 months and still no change in expectation and asking price.

Difference between asking and what people are ready to pay is 10% to 20%, which is a very big gap. Vendors who have to sell are trying for the highest price but selling on the best available price unlike many who are not serious and just testing the market (Many times agents are responsible as have given high hope/appraisal to the Vendors and in current market is misfiring unlike boom time).

Correct so many houses with high asking. Do not think that they want to sell. If the gap between the asking and what is being offered is small, is understandabe but in manyhouses it is as much as 20% :)

Property market set to boom again...China has started stimulus so plenty of liquidity available now. Sales rate for their property market picked up 20%. Sooner or later the excess will flow into Aus and NZ propert markets. Even though NZ has FBB local Chinese can still access china credit market for loans. On top you have more money coming out of China as a measure of shorting their currency by investing in other currencies world wide. However this will be short term as they have attained somewhat of a debt saturation where interest is at par with income. Short term jump in property sales expected i believe

11
up

I thought china had clamped down on the capital outflows.. Has that ended, or are they trying to boost the domestic market and still coming down hard on people trying to send money out of the country?

12
up

Taking the P***, Yvil and Co. .......if property doubles every 7 - 10 years according to your ilk and the peak was say 2016 we can safely say, the average Auckland house price in the DGZ in 2023 will be around 4 million ? ....so why are you posting on this site ??? ....so get out there and buy some more property !!! ......gotta keep the "property ponzi party going" ! ...time is short ....see ya at the Shortland St auctions.

One house in Sunnyhills sold for 930 (CV of 1150) in February and just saw that house came up again after renovation as was a do up property in just 2 months.

Interesting some are still able o take the punt

Theres a few like that. 96 Marua road is being flipped. Back on the market a week and a half after the last listing came down, previous owner had already renovated it so I doubt much if anything has been done to it. New owner is trying to flip it for more than the previous owner was asking back in Feb, and that was before three price drops and then giving up on a price and going to Negotiation..

They say god loves a trier.. lets see if "the market" does too.

41 Louton Avenue was a do up and by photos it looks that have done a fine job and must have spent anywhere $30000 to $40000 and if we take agents commission breakeven will be a million.

Similar one in St Heliers, sold for 1.25 million on 10th September 2018. Its been done up for a quick flick at 1.59 million but it's not selling. https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/st-heliers/4-12-kaimata-street/gAavD

There are still quite a few people on here clinging to the "everything is fine", NZ is different line, along with a lot of mainstream media (with bank and real estate ad dollar revenues). This is probably the last chance to exit without having quite a tough time of it I'd say. If it's home and you're happy with it, and not leveraged to the hilt, fine, it you have highly leveraged investments, I'd say exit, now.

Real fall is about to come. At this stage agents are asking as if market has not changed and after few months drop by 10% plus and many have not yet accepted so their is a resistance - both by Sellers as well as by buyer as a result heaps of unsold house. In this market buyers will not pay much so it is a matter of time before Vendors realize. Bigger role is of real estate agents who in their greed of getting a listing are giving high appraisal and false hope to the vendor and AFTERWARDS try to condition the seller to bring down the price but by that time many vendors who are not serious gets pissed off and change agent so the entire process takes few months and by that time the will be lower from where they started.

Hi VoR,

You write, "This is probably the last chance to exit without having quite a tough time......"

One has to remind readers that comments like yours have been made here ad-infinitum for at least the last 7 years.

Your comment is a cliche - a hackneyed statement backed by neither evidence nor proof....... The proverbial record stuck in the groove. Stale and tiresome.

TTP

TTP, You will not have seen that from me before now. I've been pretty optimistic about the Auckland and Sydney property markets, leading up to 2015, when I saw a peak of a bubble about to hit. I'ver personally made quite a bit from both those markets on the way up, and now I see the down side of the bubble ahead. I'm not a perpetual bear, but I am now. I'd say it'll take about 5 years to unwind this one.

No evidence or proof? There's never any evidence or proof on when the time is right to an exit a market. Until that time has passed. We do know that prices across Auckland are falling and there's no evidence or proof they will rise any time soon. You can buy a 3 bed in Manly in the 500s today. A couple of years ago there was nothing like that below 700. Take a look. You'll see.

Here’s all the proof you need, although there is a lot of it in the current market bubble situation. Oh look a big bank with a lot at stake is surprised by the scale of the decline, everything was fine:
“NAB says property price falls larger than expected”
https://amp.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/property-falls-larger-than-e...

Very interesting. I note The Herald is still claiming NZ is nothing like Aus and 'we don't follow Sydney, we mirror it,' meaning that since we haven't yet dropped as sharply as Sydney we are not mirroring them and therefore won't crash. Madness. This is the calm before the storm. The market is now becoming aware that things aren't in sellers' favour, and people are too nervous to buy (rightly so). From here it's all about buyer sentiment. No one wants to catch a falling knife, and with costs to own so high and zero equity growth there is no point whatsoever in purchasing. Sit back and watch the prices tumble. If you look at prices on Hibiscus Coast you'll see it's already happening. There are also a lot of new homes coming onto the market and sitting vacant despite lowered price expectations. Interesting times.

I saw that video, that guy is dreaming. It's wishful thinking, and he'll regret saying that. It reminds me of the countless commentators saying things like that before Sydney and Melbourne started plummeting.

Thought exactly the same thing. That's going to be embarrassing!

Thick Skin and only motivated by vested interest.

Question to be asked by so called experts, will they put their money on what they say.