Sales rates volatile but overall sales lifted at Barfoot & Thompson's latest auctions

Property

Sales on just over a third at Barfoot & Thompson's latest auctions

21st May 19, 9:48am by Greg Ninness

Auction numbers and the sales rate both picked up a bit at Barfoot & Thompson's latest residential property auctions.

The agency marketed 101 properties for sale by auction in the week from May 13-19, up from 91 the previous week.

The sales rate was also higher with sales achieved on 35 of the properties, giving an overall clearance rate of 35% compared with 26% the previous week.

However, results at particular auctions continue to be quite volatile.

The Manukau auction, where most of the properties offered were from Auckland's southern and eastern suburbs, had one of the lowest sales rates last week, with sales on just 4 of the 18 properties offered (18%), while the sales rate at the previous week's Manukau auction had been one of the highest at 45%.

Conversely, sales at the North Shore auction hit 39% last week, up from 18% the previous week.

The on-site auctions also stood out last week with a 50% sales rate, compared to a meagre 10% the previous week (see table below for the results from all of Barfoot & Thompson's residential auctions last week).

Details of the individual properties offered are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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**Barfoot & Thompson Auction Results 13-19 May 2019**
Date	Venue	Sold	Not Sold	Total	% Sold
13-19 May	On-site	6	6	12	50%
14 May	Manukau	4	18	22	18%
14 May	Shortland St, CBD.	4	3	7	57%
15 May	Shortland St, CBD.	7	12	19	37%
15 May	Whangarei	0	1	1	-
15 May	Pukekohe	3	6	9	33%
16 May	North Shore	9	14	23	39%
16 May	Shortland St, CBD.	1	1	2	50%
17 May	Shortland St, CBD.	1	5	6	17%
Total	All venues	35	66	101	35%

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62 Comments

by Mrs The Point | 21st May 19, 10:36am 1558391770

It's an early spring. Whoopee!

by Battinz | 21st May 19, 12:40pm 1558399206

Love to see the DGMs try to explain this one away!!!

by Mrs The Point | 21st May 19, 12:53pm 1558399986

Poe's Law in play here.

by Cowpat | 21st May 19, 1:44pm 1558403056

Yep, 0.00006 percent of Auckland's housing stock just sold. Crisis averted.

by Battinz | 21st May 19, 9:07pm 1558429624

Indeed...

by NorthernLights | 21st May 19, 4:01pm 1558411289

Don’t be so hard on the Double Grammar Morons
They’re oblivious to living in a true city with genuinely high property taxation
Its amazing how some can see these sales levels as glorious lol

by Hardly | 21st May 19, 5:30pm 1558416604

Oh how will we manage it.

35% was bad before Auckland hit the 20s. Its a reversion to the mean.

by Chairman Moa | 21st May 19, 10:59am 1558393146

the Housing market summed up in this youtube clip

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR0lWICH3rY

by Yvil | 21st May 19, 11:20am 1558394428

Haha, very funny, shame the brits in the sinking ship in German waters didn't speak German to save themselves

by Dgm | 21st May 19, 11:39am 1558395564

so appropriate, so many have jumped into the market without having a clue about housing as an investment.. when they start to sink, their yells will be shunned by banks, claiming they cant understand their English... :)

by tothepoint - d… | 21st May 19, 1:21pm 1558401710

We may see a slightly more buoyant Auckland housing market over the next few months - including some upward price pressure - due to the ban on CGT combined with continuing falls in interest rates.

Notably, there are very few listings in the much sought-after inner-city suburbs like Ponsonby and Freemans Bay - so choice for buyers is constrained in such areas. (It would be unwise to assume there's a universal excess-supply of listings.)

Nonetheless, I don't see the Auckland market gathering any real strength until 2021 - at the very earliest.

TTP

by CourtJester | 21st May 19, 1:50pm 1558403439

Why would the "ban on CGT" affect house prices now? There wasn't a CGT or even rumours of it a year or two ago, when Auckland prices flattened out. If the lack of a CGT didn't drive prices up then, why would it do so now?
Also, see the Interest article about the significance of "falls in interest rates". It's essentially zero. If people were reluctant to get a 600k mortgate at 3.95%, that ~0.15% change won't do anything.

by taimaiakka0 | 21st May 19, 2:46pm 1558406818

Have to ignore as this is more talking to self loudly and trying to convince oneselves rather than others that everything will be fine soon

by tothepoint - d… | 21st May 19, 3:47pm 1558410468

Hi CourtJester,

The ban on CGT has changed buyer/investor sentiment. Many property investors fear capital gains tax. Plenty of them now feel more relaxed about housing investment.

At the margin, changes in interest rates typically make a difference to housing purchase decision-making. It's spurious to say that a "~0.15% change won't do anything". Bankers/lenders will tell you that.

TTP

by Sluggy | 21st May 19, 4:22pm 1558412538

If they fear a CGT, then they are investing with the intention of selling for a gain, so it is taxable based on their intention, assuming they make a dime, and dont lose their shirts. You understand that the 5 year brightline is a cgt and is not banned. So its not a blanket cgt ban, just a partial cgt ban, or a claytons ban, the ban you have when your not having a ban.

by tothepoint - d… | 21st May 19, 5:29pm 1558416552

Hi Sluggish,

The Brightline regime is well known and understood by property investors.

But Labour had hinted at something far more draconian during its 2017 election campaign. That created uncertainty and fear among property investors - but now that uncertainty (and fear) has lifted.

Hope that’s now clear to you.

TTP

by Sluggy | 21st May 19, 10:01pm 1558432876

Bright line = capital gains tax
Intent = capital gains tax

There is no ban on cgt. The names have been changed to protect their identities, like that time Prince changed his name to The Artist. Same guy, different name. Tricky concept I know.

by NorthernLights | 21st May 19, 4:04pm 1558411486

TTP so now you say it’s 2021 hilarious!
I thought I’d pop back after many months to check on the driveling
2021 indeed lol

by Chairman Moa | 21st May 19, 5:19pm 1558415977

@ NorthernLights: Are you sinking what I am sinking?

by tothepoint - d… | 21st May 19, 5:33pm 1558416839

Hi NL,

I have consistently said 2021 - AT THE VERY EARLIEST. (That’s been my position for a long time now.)

Kindly desist from mis-quoting me.

TTP

by Voiceofreason | 21st May 19, 5:35pm 1558416905

TTP, you seem to have added “at the very earliest” to your thesis in the past couple of weeks.

by theglc | 21st May 19, 5:33pm 1558416829

So seriously! we have got to the point where we are celebrating a 35% clearance rate!!!!

LMAO!!!!

Things are truly getting dire .....................

by CJ099 | 21st May 19, 11:34am 1558395245

Sounds like a dead cat bounce to me considering that 35% is still very low sales clearance rates.

by Crazy Horse | 21st May 19, 2:13pm 1558404798

@CJ099 ....mean while for the weekend just gone, the auction clearance rate in Sydney was 56% ....but we're different here in Awklund ...robust, unaffected, "bullet proof" etc......just ask "Taking the P*ss" .....happy daze !

by CJ099 | 21st May 19, 4:37pm 1558413448

Yeah the Ozzy market will probably plummet further down to our auction clearance levels when the finally have to do something about their main property market driver: ABC News: Real Estate; dirty money laundered through Australian housing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-A_lH4S3ufA

by tothepoint - d… | 21st May 19, 6:07pm 1558418835

Hi Crazy Horse,

I guess if you’re crazy, you can say anything and get away with it........

But keep enjoying your lunacy, old chap!

TTP

by Crazy Horse | 22nd May 19, 10:06am 1558476386

@ taking the "Proverbial" .....I might be "Crazy" and I might be a "Horse" but at least I am not out there on the track, running with my "blinders" on ..,.happy daze !

by NorthernLights | 21st May 19, 4:07pm 1558411626

No 35% sold is apparently spiffing!
Where did these people leave their brains ?

by taimaiakka0 | 21st May 19, 11:40am 1558395629

If Vendors are realistic, sell will be achieved but vendors with high expectation are unable to sell. In Pakuranaga, Bucklandsbeach and near by area house comming to market are asking 10% below CV and and are settling anywhere between 15% to 20% Below CV as of now.

Anyone paying CV or more.......Good Luck to Them.

by realterms | 21st May 19, 12:47pm 1558399656

browsing through the north shore auction results (on this site) it does look like maybe the current lot of vendors is a little more realistic. almost all recent sales below CV, and that's sale at auction, not after months of lowering expectations.

by stuart786786 | 21st May 19, 1:14pm 1558401270

Correct in Howick, Pakuranga, sunnyhills, Bucklands Beach and near by areas, have observed that on first week of open home the agents play around with CV and immediately next week will drop by 10% to 20% below CV except those gents who have bought the listing with high appraisal/hope to the vendor (How do you know which agents are those who have bought - Check the listing of those agents and will notice that have heaps of listing and many unsold since last few months).

FHB should check sell history and if the vendor has bought in 2016 or after, to be avoided as will not be able to sell unless ready to take a loss. Besides also to check the listing history of real estate agent, if have many listings with him/her and many unsold since last few months can be avoided as most probably has been bought by the agent with high appraisal.

Agree that going forward to buy at CV is not a good buy (few execepation) but if can buy at 20% Plus below CV most probably you are minimising your risk. Finally not rush to buy as this just the begening.

by richard1965 | 21st May 19, 11:43am 1558395799

How bad the situation is can be judged from the fact that sell on 35% of the houses is considered to be positive.

Need say anything...……..

by taimaiakka0 | 21st May 19, 1:51pm 1558403468

It is positive. If someone is terminally sick and doctor says that will live for a month - is positive, if earlier was advise few weeks.

Need say anything...……..

by JimmyJames | 23rd May 19, 1:10am 1558530635

And when you consider the sales would capture people who benefited from the upward pressure of foreign buyers over the years so are just buying and selling the family home in the same market to upscale or downscale. A lot of people put of moving because the rungs on the ladder became to far apart to step. Eventually sales data will be more dependent on new money buying houses priced in foreign buying power.

by Milkyone | 21st May 19, 2:57pm 1558407426

Come on people...

Law of small numbers applies here, especially as we are talking about a highly variable data set (ie all houses are not the same). We should expect to see significant shifts week to week, both up and down. Its the trends over a number of weeks that matters. The weekly figure taken in isloation, or in this case compared only to the past week's, is practically meaningless from a statistical perspective.

Really, these articles should end with a trend graph showing the past 52 weeks or so.

by CJ099 | 21st May 19, 4:31pm 1558413118

Yes I think you'll have likely seen a sharp trend downwards in the upper price brackets, after January this year when the AML regulations second phase kicked in. Think that trend is likely to continue. Still it wasn't just our property market that had become addicted to the false economy time to build a real economy now.
Better dwelling article: Canada Would Be In A Recession Without Money Laundering - Over $200 Billion Money Laundered Across Canada Over 5 Years
https://betterdwelling.com/canada-would-be-in-a-recession-without-money…

by house hunter | 21st May 19, 5:03pm 1558415000

This x10.
Some sort of moving average might be interesting.

by THE MAN 2 | 21st May 19, 4:02pm 1558411358

Forget the Auckland market at the moment, as there is not money to be made at this time unless you are buying exceedingly well.
Christchurch is a very balanced growing market with absolutely no chance of a down market, as it continues to become more and more popular with people moving here!
Affordable investment property that gives positive income and capital gain in future guaranteed!

by Joe Wilkes | 21st May 19, 4:30pm 1558413012

‘Remember we welcome ‘robust’ respectful and ‘insightful’ debate.’

by Chairman Moa | 21st May 19, 5:26pm 1558416377

You heard it capital gain in future is guaranteed!

by theglc | 21st May 19, 5:36pm 1558416968

"with absolutely no chance of a down market,"

I wonder what another earthquake would do...............

by Chairman Moa | 21st May 19, 5:38pm 1558417135

You are on shaky ground there bro'

by tothepoint - d… | 21st May 19, 5:58pm 1558418337

Earthquake recovery operations involve greatly increased expenditure in local communities which, in turn, pours income into pockets......

Ironically, this stimulatory effect leads to wealth creation - and heightened prosperity for many (but not all).

TTP

by THE MAN 2 | 21st May 19, 6:45pm 1558421119

Hope we do not have any more, however many people have done very well financially out of the quakes.
Providing you are insured, not a worry!

by theglc | 21st May 19, 8:17pm 1558426654

I hope there isnt any more either, but I imagine a lot of people would relocate if another big one hit.

I was really trying to point out how ridiculous your comment was in a region that still carries a fair amount of risk.

by THE MAN 2 | 21st May 19, 9:31pm 1558431111

Where is the risk?
Everything is insured for more than the houses are actually worth on the open market?
ChCh risk is lower than Wellington’s and many other places!

by EarlyMillenial | 22nd May 19, 10:37am 1558478274

What a talented man THE MAN 2 is..
Property Guru
Seismology Expert
Actuarial and Private Insurance Product and Pricing Expert
Reinsurance Expert
/sarc

by Chairman Moa | 22nd May 19, 10:59am 1558479573

He doesn't get out much.. I don't live in CHCH but I do know where the skinheads hang out!

by Fegus Woodward | 22nd May 19, 11:22am 1558480952

the internet where everyone gets a voice

by Dogboy | 21st May 19, 5:45pm 1558417556

What about insurance costs? Thats got to dampen the CC market

by THE MAN 2 | 21st May 19, 6:43pm 1558421026

Insurance in ChCh is probably less than Wellington and Auckland and still affordable.
People have done very nicely out of insurance on their ChCh property

by Fegus Woodward | 22nd May 19, 11:20am 1558480814

Unreal perspective, you are truly living in a dreamland! Christchurch (as shown by property market performance) is the least desirable city to live in.

by Zachary Smith | 21st May 19, 5:42pm 1558417340

A 35% sales rate should give the 'serious seller' grounds for a degree of confidence in the auction system.

Here is an example that sold last week. A two bedroom B&T very much in need of elbow grease that sold for close to a million:

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/property/residential/auckland-city/greenlane/…

Affordable houses in premium locations are still relatively easy to sell.

by Joe Wilkes | 21st May 19, 5:55pm 1558418102

Here’s some more stats compiled by an analyst I have the pleasure of dealing with. Slightly larger data set than 1 and referencing historic sales volumes in the ‘City of Sails’

‘Auckland house sales in historical perspective

pcm sales 2012-18 (84m): 2630 pcm
2008-12 (60m) : 2368 pcm
2008-18 (132m) : 2520 pcm
January-April 19: 1956 pcm

2003-2007: 4326 pcm

Last 4m monthly sales thus are 17.4% below the last period of "recession." Houston, I think we have a problem....’ (Anon). Unless he pops up here to claim credit for his research.

by Zachary Smith | 21st May 19, 6:19pm 1558419577

Relatively high volumes in absolute numbers though. This shows that a significant number of properties actually do sell and reinforces my statement that affordable properties in premium locations continue to be an agent's dream listing.

If you have a two bedroom in the 700-1000k range, a three bedroom in the 1000-1500k range, or a four bedroom for around 1600k in the double grammar zone of Auckland you are likely to sell at auction.
(Disclaimer: this is my area of particular interest)

by tothepoint - d… | 21st May 19, 7:08pm 1558422522

Hi Zachary,

Always good to hear from you! (Your comments are always so refreshing, after wading through the acres of doom & gloom here.)

My only response is: if you have an "affordable property in a premium location", why let an agent sell it? I say do the job yourself and save a bundle in fees!

Certainly, I wouldn't be inclined to line the pockets of any real estate agent. Plenty of them are still driving luxury cars. I work harder than any of them - and drive a humble Hillman Hunter. (I've named it "Rachel" in honour of Rachel Hunter.)

TTP

by swapacrate | 21st May 19, 9:10pm 1558429850

Your Doom and Gloom is my happiness. If I can pay less for a house and less for my deposit and less to the bank in interest. More for my kids, and more to live life at the beach surfing, then happy days.

by Zachary Smith | 21st May 19, 9:57pm 1558432666

Thanks TTP, that made me laugh about your Hillman Hunter. I still think I would use an agent though. My last one did a marvelous job of practically project managing the preparation and staging, calling in favours from flooring people and stagers, to get the property presentable within a short time frame.

by tothepoint - d… | 22nd May 19, 7:42am 1558467722

Hi Zachary,

Good to hear of an agent that pulled his/her weight and earned their keep.

I don't hear too many stories like that. (Most people maintain that what agent's deliver seldom matches what they promise.)

Cheers!

TTP

by Chairman Moa | 22nd May 19, 11:32am 1558481544

TTP you should upgrade Hillman Hunter to a Morris Marina with vinyl roof

by Big_Data | 22nd May 19, 8:12am 1558469541

I was a close follower of the GFC as it unfolded in Arizona from 2006 to 2012. There are many similarities with what's happening in Auckland. One notable similarity in respect to this article is the desire to leap on any slight positive fluctuation (average price, median price, HPI, sales numbers, inventory etc.) and claim 'the recovery is here!' But it never was. Many people jumped in and bought on these occasions as it seemed hard to believe there was much further to fall. But there was.

When the market finally turned it did so very quietly and slowly. There was no bounce off the bottom. There was a dejected and beaten feeling among sellers and agents. Even buyers lost the belief that 'this is the bottom!' It's pretty hard to time the market.

People who bought at the right time did so because they ignored the imaginary pressures to buy. They saw that the numbers stacked (being cheaper to buy than rent, or able to lease a rental investment and be comfortably cash-flow positive, not ignoring taxes and maintenance and management fees, all of which add up).

Auckland is not at that place. It makes no sense to buy a declining asset that costs you money to own. We have a long way to go.

by Jaf | 22nd May 19, 10:15am 1558476944

Ban on CGT? Think again.

There is Brightline Test which by default treats a gain on sale within 5 years as taxable (except the family home, but with exceptions there is no pattern of buying & selling a owner-occupied home at a gain).

Intent to gain on sale? There is no cut-off point to this. In the past IRD may have been pussyfooting on this.Perhaps taking the cue from the government then which had vested interests not to rock the property market.

But, under Labour one can expect the IRD to have a more robust application of the intention to gain.Tried selling a house lately? Your solicitors would require you to fill up some forms!!!!