Migration numbers getting close to negative territory

Public Policy / news

Net migration gain of just under 800 in the 12 months to September this year, down from gain of 65,000 in year to September 2020

15th Nov 21, 12:10pm by Greg Ninness

Population growth from migration is at a 10 year low, with a net population gain of just 653 people in September. This is the lowest it has been for the month of September since 2011, according to Statistics New Zealand's latest figures.

In the year to September there was a net gain of just 796 people, compared to a net gain of 65,014 in the year to September 2020.

The record for any 12 month period was a net gain of 92,000 in the year to March 2020.

In the year to September 2021 there were 46,982 long-term arrivals into New Zealand, compared to 130,911 in the year to September 2020.

That was almost matched by the 46,185 long-term departures in the year to September 2021, compared to 65,897 in the year to September 2020.

The level of long-term arrivals compared to long-term departures means the net migration level is getting close to producing an annual net loss of migrants, something that last occurred between December 2010 and May 2013, when more people were leaving NZ long-term than were arriving long-term.

In the 12 months to September this year there was a net gain of 9325 NZ citizens and a net loss on 8529 non-NZ citizens.

There was a net loss of 3388 citizens of China in the year to September 2021, followed by a net loss of 1783 citizens of India, and a net loss of 894 citizens of Korea.

There were also net outflows of citizens of most other countries, including France -682, Japan -518, the UK -523, Tonga -401 and the USA -328.

Only a handful of countries made a positive contribution to NZ's population growth in the 12 months to September, led by Australia 751, Samoa 514, Philippines 535, and South Africa 457.

Returning NZ citizens made up the biggest group of long-term arrivals by a substantial margin, with 25,828 NZ citizens arriving back in the country in the 12 months to September this year, followed by 3166 Australian citizens.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.

Net long term migration

Select chart tabs

Source: Statistics NZ

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

59 Comments

by muzled | 15th Nov 21, 12:17pm 1636931853

Sounds just about right doesn't it?

by tothepoint | 15th Nov 21, 12:31pm 1636932679

Sadly, it's possible we'll suffer significant population loss - through Covid mortality.

Don't put it off - get vaccinated now.

TTP

by Kaper2 | 15th Nov 21, 1:14pm 1636935265

Perhaps picking up where Eugenics failed

by Brutus Iscariot | 15th Nov 21, 2:43pm 1636940610

Hahahaha thanks for the laugh!! What do you think this is, the Black Plague??! We'll get a few hundred covid deaths tops next year. And most of those will be people who were on their way out anyway.

Normal mortality in NZ runs about 30k per year so even if we get a 10% anomaly, it's not gonna move the total population needle.

by PocketAces | 15th Nov 21, 3:14pm 1636942446

Neither did the plague move the population needle in the long run (mind you, it was in a time when no one had the foggiest idea where it came from, how to treat it and/or how to prevent it, but otherwise a greeaat comparison, pardon the sarcasm) or any number of wars. The only thing that moves the population needle in the direction the planet needs us to is birth control.

by b21 | 15th Nov 21, 12:20pm 1636932003

Where can I find in that graph those the hordes of returning Kiwis who were going to take houses from our hands?

by Noncents | 15th Nov 21, 12:46pm 1636933612

On the MIQ backlog graph.

by Carlos67 | 15th Nov 21, 12:49pm 1636933796

From what I heard a couple of hundred thousand are trying to return. There will be no shortage of arrivals when the border reopens.

by b21 | 15th Nov 21, 1:23pm 1636935784

You heard where? Maybe the same sources that lied the first time?

by VTHO | 15th Nov 21, 1:45pm 1636937155

That many? Ya dreaming mate. I know a few in London, yea it was a crap 2020 for them but they are back travelling again now and having a great time - no desire to come back here to live.

by Ngrrk | 15th Nov 21, 4:06pm 1636945570

Same. I know many people overseas who were thinking of coming back at the height of covid but have changed their minds. They took pause afer thinking about what they would return to: insane house prices and s$%t wages.

by AJ123 | 15th Nov 21, 12:20pm 1636932036

5 million is enough no more immigrants are required, more burden will further choke the system which is already crumbling due to Labour decisions.

by VTHO | 15th Nov 21, 12:24pm 1636932263

Good. NZ is full, the population should be capped at 5 million.

by northman46 | 15th Nov 21, 12:59pm 1636934368

Does that include child birth?

by powerdownkiwi | 15th Nov 21, 1:17pm 1636935464

Why ask?

Do you understand population?

by northman46 | 15th Nov 21, 3:08pm 1636942084

I'm trying to understand their viewpoint by asking a question for them to elaborate. What don't you understand about that?

Some are only concerned about population from immigration. I want to know if there's the same concern from births.

People have commented below stating population increase from birth is fine.

Why are you asking if I understand population? Just being a condescending prick?

by PocketAces | 15th Nov 21, 3:17pm 1636942635

In this day and age when females are not completely dictated to by their gender and can and do choose how many times, when or if at all they give birth, birthrates tend to fall to below replacement. That is very much a thing

by OVO | 15th Nov 21, 1:18pm 1636935483

I don’t think so, child births are okay. If we are above replacement fertility in the future so be it. But that isn’t the way we are trending. Open immigration up again when we dip back under 5mil.

by Averageman | 15th Nov 21, 2:52pm 1636941130

Slight annual increase of about 25k or 1% growth or there about from births and deaths according to https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/births-and-death

At the current housing stock annual debt (...I mean value) growth rate of 20% , and lets assume the earliest of this years crop of babies can afford to buy a house is at their 25 birthday, then the average house prices should around $95.4 million by that time. Or lets for a moment consider it would be at the average age of today's first today's home buyers, being 36 years old as reported granny herald, then average house prices will be $708.8 million. Note for fairness this was reported in 2020 when things were much cheaper...

by rastus1 | 15th Nov 21, 12:41pm 1636933318

Thank You covid. Achieving for Kiwi's what politicians were too limp to do.

Can we make covid a legal entity (like the Wanganui River) and nominate 'it' (she,him,her they) for NZ er of the year?

by HouseMouse | 15th Nov 21, 1:04pm 1636934688

Haha, yes, although even covid was impotent in turning house prices around.

Even if we had a nuclear war our house prices would probably surge forward.

by rastus1 | 15th Nov 21, 1:49pm 1636937355

...patience...many fools still out there (4 were on tv last night). Sir/Dame covid ain't giving up yet.

by Let me be Frank | 15th Nov 21, 8:35pm 1636961725

Even if the bubonic plague returned and half the population died some would expect NZ house prices to rise.

by Palmtree08 | 15th Nov 21, 1:27pm 1636936076

Limp soon to be back in fashion again.

by JohnTrz | 15th Nov 21, 12:42pm 1636933325

Excellent. Ever fewer people bidding ever higher sums for ever more houses. What larks!

by Carlos67 | 15th Nov 21, 12:48pm 1636933714

This is the best news all year, Labour finally delivered on an election promise.

by nktokyo | 15th Nov 21, 12:57pm 1636934243

20-30k stuck in MIQ lobbies

by northman46 | 15th Nov 21, 12:59pm 1636934392

It's just going to go into over-drive next year.

by HouseMouse | 15th Nov 21, 1:02pm 1636934538

This is not an international migration comment, but an internal migration comment.

I have a surveyor friend based in the Waikato who has told me they have been inundated with jobs of lifestyle block subdivisions from Aucklanders, typically mid 50s to early 60s in age.

Seems a bit of a no brainer, especially if you are wealthy and/or can readily work remotely.

And it's not much more than an hour, off peak, to drive back to Auckland to see friends, family etc.

I really do think Auckland's population growth will slow, which is a good thing.

by napierboy | 15th Nov 21, 2:36pm 1636940196

Domestic migration over the last year combined with lack of international migrants means Auckland's population dropped last year by 0.1%, the first decline in its history.

Covid-19 blamed for Auckland's population declining for the first time | Stuff.co.nz

by KH | 15th Nov 21, 10:14pm 1636967659

For many years net internal movement has been out of Auckland. It's not a new thing.

by Notgreedykiwi | 15th Nov 21, 1:11pm 1636935085

And we want to keep it this way. Too many uber drivers and cleaners have entered the country and it's not good for average brain gain of the country. We need intellectuals who add value to society and increase the intelligence. Rather we are getting people whose collective IQ is far less than average kiwi and are a drag on the country.

by northman46 | 15th Nov 21, 1:15pm 1636935337

Assuming the average IQ of an immigrant cleaner or Uber driver is lower than the average Kiwi is a bold assessment of the situation. Superior arrogance, maybe?

by Notgreedykiwi | 15th Nov 21, 1:21pm 1636935661

No arrogance or superiority. Just stating the facts. I might be very wrong but I said what i see around me. If a person is smart and there are opportunities to do better things around, why would be doing uber driver or uber eats?

by CWBW | 15th Nov 21, 1:33pm 1636936438

No arrogance or superiority. Just stating the facts.

So you're saying that migrant university students are so dumb that they qualify an entrance to our university without affirmative aid because they do Uber.

You're equating IQ with opportunities- it appears to me that you are actually the one on the left hand side of the IQ curve.

by Lapun | 15th Nov 21, 3:00pm 1636941626

Not all students go to university. Many do 'diplomas' - probably of variable quality. Many arrive to study and bring a partner with them - sometimes those partners are really bright however it is not tested.

by HouseMouse | 15th Nov 21, 5:15pm 1636949740

From my limited sample size of perhaps 10 uber drivers, the vast majority of them came here to do diplomas at non-university institutions.

It's a rort.

by refactornz | 15th Nov 21, 1:34pm 1636936485

No arrogance or superiority. Just stating the facts. I might be very wrong but I said what i see around me.

So not stating the facts then.

by Orontogosh | 15th Nov 21, 2:41pm 1636940487

What is the point looking for opportunity to do better things when a miserable moldy shed earns more a year than a skilled professional anyway? If a person is smart and can find other opportunities to do better things then why move to or remain in NZ anyway?

At least uber and uber eats drivers (immigrants and kiwis) are providing a useful service for front line workers and vulnerable people looking for safer way to get around during the pandemic and helping support struggling restaurants. What use has the wealthy specuvestor class been during the pandemic other than driving up house prices and robbing young people of future financial security? Without hard working people actually providing genuine value to NZ then what are we left with other than lazy people trading houses for arbitrary sums of money?

by Jarlaith | 15th Nov 21, 6:26pm 1636953967

You’re stating an opinion, not a fact.

by Bellbird | 15th Nov 21, 1:33pm 1636936430

Totally agree. The calibre of the average immigrant over the past 5 years in terms of skill, qualifications and net wealth has been low. This doesn’t even take into account immigrants with bogus degrees etc. Do ‘chefs’, cleaners and Uber drivers really benefit NZ long term? Meanwhile highly skilled/qualified/experienced professionals are struggling to gain entry..

by Lapun | 15th Nov 21, 3:05pm 1636941939

If you are pro-immigration then you think of brain surgeons and if you are anti-immigration you think of checkout operators. The reality is NZ gets both. Given an immigration policy that is transparent and publicly discussed there would be an opportunity to get even more of those immigrants that make NZ a better place because at present the best young students go to other countries.

by twoturntablesa… | 15th Nov 21, 4:54pm 1636948460

I've encountered lots of Uber drivers who are intelligent.

by Waikatohome | 15th Nov 21, 5:54pm 1636952057

Firstly, when my boiler breaks or a my roof leaks I don’t go looking for an intellectual to fix it. Intellectuals aren’t particularly useful most of the time. Secondly, I recently met an Afghani refugee working as a caterer. She was a qualified and experienced obstetrician but her Russian degree was not recognised in NZ so she couldn’t practice here. You may be surprised by the Uber drivers qualifications.

by Notgreedykiwi | 15th Nov 21, 1:15pm 1636935353

If you are aged between 21-35 and have good qualifications or good industry experience, sell your stuff and get out into the wider world as soon as you can. NZ will drag you behind if you stay here any longer. Just find a job overseas and go enjoy the whole wide world. Better opportunities and lots of things to discover there. You can always come back when you have made lots of money and NZ will be your bach house visit during Christmas.

by powerdownkiwi | 15th Nov 21, 1:21pm 1636935694

You haven't read much, I'm guessing?

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/11/10/our-fossil-fuel-energy-predicamen…

Read it all - still advising kids to leave?

by Notgreedykiwi | 15th Nov 21, 1:24pm 1636935848

I guess you are middle aged kiwi with greenie goggles and no other achievements to show for yourself.

by HouseMouse | 15th Nov 21, 1:57pm 1636937851

He / she said young kiwis might go overseas and come back with some $$$, seems pretty sensible to me. And have some good overseas experiences and travel on the way.

by Chris-M | 15th Nov 21, 4:53pm 1636948381

Given the crazy price of houses, anybody considering moving to NZ has rocks in their heads. I suspect that when people are confident enough to travel again young Kiwis will be leaving in droves. It is their only way out of the housing un-affordability and welfare benefit poverty trap

I heard Kelvin Davies saying today that house building costs will continue to rise. They are already well beyond the realistic affordability of most people who desperately need houses so there is absolutely no hope that a healthy competitive market will return prices to anything like affordability.

Given Aderns comments on continuing houses price rises and now this from Davies, it is absolutely clear that Labor have no intention of addressing housing affordability. The message is clear to young aspiring FHBs. Give up any hope that prices will fall, it is just a foolish pipe dream that is holding you back. The only option that you have is to get the hell out of NZ.

by tothepoint | 15th Nov 21, 2:17pm 1636939029

Hi Chris-M,

It seems to me that there are many Kiwis who are happy to stay put - having made a fortune from the housing market over the last few years...... 💰💰💰

TTP

by GV 27 | 15th Nov 21, 2:55pm 1636941312

That's the problem. There are many Kiwis who lack the imagination to do anything but sell houses back and forwards between each other and drive up the prices for young Kiwis starting out.

They might be in for a shock when there's no one to pay for their Super, or when there's suddenly a degree of social unrest and a shortage of people who are willing to work as police officers for the pay on offer.,

by Averageman | 15th Nov 21, 3:35pm 1636943703

And nurses, and doctors, and teachers, and firemen, and rest home workers to wipe peoples dribble and other areas. Oh wait...we are already there.

by Orontogosh | 15th Nov 21, 3:06pm 1636942017

classy

by Colin Nemo | 15th Nov 21, 2:31pm 1636939895

House prices to the moon. One way ticket to wealth and prosperity for asset holders. Once house prices goes, the real economy will die with it.

For NZ citizens returning, at least, they're able to get the WINZ benefit to live off as opposed to not being able to find work in Australia or overseas and being destitute. For what you can get rents here are still cheaper than say Sydney/ Melbourne for many returnees so they can get back on their feet. AU does not support unemployment for Kiwi citizens living there and rents are through the roof.

by Chris-M | 15th Nov 21, 4:47pm 1636948076

There is a lot more to Australia than Sydney or Melbourne. They are the last places that you should be considering. And once there Kiwis should be putting all their effort into gaining Australian citizenship. But there are far more counties than Australia that are only too willing to welcome our young highly qualified and hardworking citizens.

by HouseMouse | 15th Nov 21, 5:17pm 1636949862

I've spent a fair bit of time in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. All nice cities in their own way, and MUCH more affordable than Auckland.

by Let me be Frank | 15th Nov 21, 8:41pm 1636962098

"This data is based on migration intentions as stated on the arrival cards and departure cards. This approach has been discontinued due to the removal of departure cards."

https://figure.nz/chart/Erk7ckPxpzaqtXKe

If we dont wish to know (or wish to confuse) then we dont measure

by AKLCrusader | 16th Nov 21, 8:43am 1637005415

Any wonder there are no workers to help business in our economic recovery?

Close to 200k temporary visitors left the country at COVID, those people filled many minor roles and temp worker cash type jobs, nobody to do that at the moment.......... I'm setting up a factory and having to pay skilled wages to unskilled workers - but even then can't find enough workers.

by TheAnalyst | 16th Nov 21, 9:45pm 1637052317

So why don't YOU upskill these workers and get value for money from them? Hasn't that been part of the immigration issue, NZ employers and business not investing in upskilling our youth, but instead just importing cheap labour?