Immigration flows picked up in March with a net monthly gain of 1177

Public Policy / news

Migration tap slowly being turned on with net migration turning positive in March

12th May 22, 11:46am by Greg Ninness

The flow of migrants to New Zealand may have turned a corner in March with a net gain of 1177 people for the month, according to Statistics NZ.

It was the first time long-term arrivals into NZ have exceeded long-term departures since October last year, when the net gain was just 481. However it was still down 88% compared to March 2020 when there was a net gain of 10,117 migrants for the month.

In the 12 months to the end of March there was a net loss of 7256 migrants, which followed a net loss of 1740 in the year to March 2021. Both those figures provide a stark contrast to the record net gain of 91,680 in the year to March 2020.

The turnaround in the net gain in March this year was mainly driven by an increase in the number of people coming long-term, both NZ citizens and non-NZ citizens.

There were 4992 long-term arrivals in March, which was the highest number since July last year.

By comparison long-term departures, of both NZ and non-NZ citizens, remained relatively subdued at 3815 in March, to give the net gain of 1177.

So far, it appears we are yet to see the great rush of New Zealanders quitting this country to live overseas that many commentators have been expecting.

We are likely to see an increase in the number of migrants coming long-term in the second half of this year, after the Government announced new immigration rules on Wednesday for people coming on work and residence visas.

Whether there is also a significant increase in the number of New Zealanders departing long-term, we will have to wait and see.

The chart below tracks the monthly net migration gain or loss since 2001.

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Net long term migration

Select chart tabs

Source: Statistics NZ

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22 Comments

by Gummy Bear Hero | 12th May 22, 11:57am 1652313450

Real Estate agents rejoice ... the migrants are coming back ... the house price swoon is over , the pumping of the ponzi will resume ! ... JOY !!!!

by Beanie | 12th May 22, 12:22pm 1652314929

Don't worry, immigrants will all be carbon neutral so we will still meet our national commitments there.

by Advisor | 12th May 22, 2:56pm 1652324192

Haven't you heard, the immigration reset will ensure those coming in are clean energy physicists, green-star building specialists, solar panel installers, EV mechanics, public transport engineers, etc. thanks to the $28/hour wage cap.

So our immigration programme is going carbon-negative.

by stacking_cheddar | 12th May 22, 4:57pm 1652331469

Liquid carbon transfer technicians for the BP forecourt, Carbon Filtration and Cola Premix Project Managers for Big Barrel, and Kiwi Carbon Fixing Soil Operators for the orchards. Come on NZ, we've got this!

by nktokyo | 12th May 22, 12:36pm 1652315761

here for a bit of whine

by Gummy Bear Hero | 12th May 22, 12:40pm 1652316003

Chardonnay ... or a nice Shiraz ?

by nktokyo | 12th May 22, 12:45pm 1652316347

Can't go wrong with a nice Shiraz!

by Gummy Bear Hero | 12th May 22, 12:50pm 1652316656

... oooh yeah , on a cool autumnal evening ... a big bodied Aussie shiraz .... very satisfying ...

by NZBilly | 12th May 22, 12:49pm 1652316597

This statistic and trend will be interesting to monitor for the remainder of the year tracking the numbers leaving NZ permanently to those coming in. The other key metrics within NZ are mortgage rates, employment rate, inflation figures and business/tourism confidence levels. Globally will be Russia Vs Ukrain/NATO, China Vs Covid, and the health of the US economy.

by nktokyo | 12th May 22, 1:34pm 1652319289

1,1000 people is approximately 400 homes. I know rentals after soft in some areas. Slack taken up within 90 days at this rate?

by Von Metternich | 12th May 22, 2:45pm 1652323558

Does importing new workers for the plantation economy out weigh the climate change agenda? Can't we just phrase "F off we are full" in terms of climate change so the Greens promote it?

by Advisor | 12th May 22, 3:17pm 1652325452

On the contrary, the Green party is busy playing saviour and feels pivoting our migration programme towards high-income workers is racist, discriminatory and inhumane towards low-income migrants (their co-leader's exact words). They want more public spending on the wellbeing of low-wage workers.

So many things take precedence over the environment on the party agenda leading to such contradictory policy positions. A renaming of the party to 'Touchy, Feely Aotearoa' should be appropriate!

by RickStrauss | 13th May 22, 11:29am 1652398149

That was a bit weird of Ricardo et al, too. Like...do they not realise how many highly skilled ICT workers coming in are not white?

by Jesse1 | 12th May 22, 2:03pm 1652320981

Wait until the April numbers come out. Customs arrivals and departures had a 6,000 gain in March. So 20% of this number were net migrants.

April had 16300 more departures than arrivals and 20% of this is 3300, which is an estimate of the net migration loss that will be reported next month. Multiply that by 12 months and you get an annual loss of 40,000 (using pretty crude estimates).

by Gummy Bear Hero | 12th May 22, 2:24pm 1652322269

40 000 ... that's all of Gisborne gone ... ... I can live with that ...

by Matt_B | 12th May 22, 4:53pm 1652331235

I have also been keeping an eye on the statsnz covid page also

Even with the opening up to more eligible travellers from 1st May has not produced the expected arrivals.

Suspect that is why they have decided to open the border to everyone 2 month sooner (peak flu season!)

by Squishy | 12th May 22, 2:45pm 1652323500

One way government could offset it's changes would be to deport illegal immigrants. Apparently there are estimated to be around 14,000 people who have illegally overstayed their visa window. Just as conciliatory gesture.

by singautim | 12th May 22, 2:56pm 1652324212

That depends on overstay - a week or two is just Island time (or Irish or Spanish) or even a prompt German with a stomach bug. Or it can be decades. Illegal immigrants are not a serious issue in NZ unlike say California or England. Our problem is not immigrants but our mad obsession with rapid population growth via excessive numbers of low paid immigrants.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 12th May 22, 3:02pm 1652324535

... wouldnt it be easier ( and cheaper ).just to get the management at Gloriavale to teach us how to incentivise 6 or 7 year olds to work a 14 hour day ....

by KH | 12th May 22, 3:39pm 1652326772

We need a population policy. Only after that can you work out an immigration policy.

Strangely we don't have the population policy, so the immigration decisions are clueless.

by Spiceeh | 12th May 22, 4:11pm 1652328671

What would be useful is a system of integrated databases. I'm sure these might exist separately, but likely not in an integrated way. The basics would be...

Unemployed person database

Name,
Qualifications,
Skills,
Years experience,
Market rate expectation,
Date added

Skills database

Qualification,
Skills,
Years Experience,
Number required (can be negative),
Current market rate expectation (updated regularly and history kept of rate changes as cross reference),

Immigration database - worker visa applicants

Name,
Qualifications,
Skills,
Years experience,
Employer,
Date employed,
Rate employed,
Rate changes during employment (updated and cross checked against tax while not a permanent resident to identify possible exploitation)
Landlord (updated and cross checked against tax while not a permanent resident to identify possible exploitation)
Rent $ (updated and cross checked against tax while not a permanent resident to identify possible exploitation)

Cross check these databases against each other before blindly approving new applications of immigrant workers, to see if kiwis are being overlooked in favour of lower wage workers from overseas and to identify if unemployed kiwis are being educated in areas that are not in demand.

Use the unemployed worker and skills shortage lists to focus educational institutions to boost training in areas most in need. Educational institutions will need to be as agile as possible in their staffing, courses and modes to ensure a steady flow of graduates where and when most required.

Stop writing off the unemployed as too lazy or stupid to undertake courses in areas they aren't already somewhat skilled, limiting their ability to get out of their situation. Provide tutors who can support those who find traditional education modes difficult to undertake eg those with learning disabilities such as Dyslexia, ADHD and ASD etc.

by 2 Tooth Bora | 13th May 22, 12:23pm 1652401439

The property zealots shouldn't get too excited and start spruking / lying yet (but they well).

There are currently 25,684 NZ jobs advertised of which their are approximately 5,000 highly skilled full time positions that immigrants can truly apply for now.

There are 188,000 kiwis on the job seeker benefit.

Over 100,000 kiwis are graduating with specialised training & tertiary qualifications entering the workforce this year and next...

The pandemic is not over, Governments are risking throwing open the borders to generate taxes as they don't make money; businesses do - corporates run the world in the pursuit of profit - their plan is drive down wage costs by increasing applications that makes available positions more competitive :)

Unemployment will grow in coming months as we cut / trim our cloth to meet our over expenditure of the past years to bring budgets back into line.