The number of people arriving in NZ on work visas is almost back to 2019 record levels

Public Policy / news

On average 17,656 people are arriving in New Zealand on work visas every month

13th Jun 23, 11:00am by Greg Ninness

The number of people arriving in New Zealand on work visas is almost back up to the record pre-pandemic levels of 2019.

The latest figures from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment show 17,319 people arrived in NZ on work visas in May. That's only down 5.1% from the 18,249 work visa arrivals in May 2019.

The number of people arriving on work visas peaked at a record 244,896 in 2019, then dropped away sharply to to 69,528 in 2020, and just 5778 in 2021 with pandemic restrictions in place.

However as travel restrictions were eased the numbers have been climbing steadily again since April last year. They've been above 10,000 a month since September last year.

Since February this year they've been edging closer to the record number of work visa arrivals in 2019.

The major difference between this year's arrival numbers and those of pre-pandemic years is that there was not the large peak of arrivals in January this year that was a regular feature of pre-pandemic years - the graph below shows the monthly trends.

So far this year, to the end of May, 88,275 people have arrived in NZ on work visas, already well ahead of the 78,693 that arrived in all of 2022.

That's an average of 17,656 a month so far this year.

This year's numbers are down by 15.5% compared to the first five months of 2019. However the figures suggest the gap is narrowing. So the end of year numbers for 2023 may well end up being close to the 2019 record, if current trends continue.

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88 Comments

by Harvey W | 13th Jun 23, 11:03am 1686611031

Hmm.. people that need bedrooms, bedrooms are in houses, supply and demand for houses, house prices???

by printer8 | 13th Jun 23, 11:11am 1686611490

Greater pressure on rents more so than house prices?

by Zwifter | 13th Jun 23, 11:26am 1686612373

Upward pressure on rents increases rent prices, increased rent prices make buying houses more attractive to rent out, house prices increase its a circle.

by Simon | 13th Jun 23, 11:31am 1686612668

More importantly in current market rent pressure/lack of good rental options, forces the hand of tenants that may be able to buy but have been holding off to take the step and buy. Reason the aussie market has gone up in the the face of interest rate hikes. Massive immigration and massive rental crisis.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jun 23, 11:35am 1686612904

Spruikers need not get too ahead of themselves here. In the face of forecasted and looming lay-offs there will be seats available on flights out too. Most recent arrivals are here for a good time, not a long time - (working holidays)

Time will tell.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 11:32am 1686612741

Do we normally lose lots of people coming into global recessions?

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jun 23, 11:52am 1686613940

...thats a very good question Pa1nter but it's probably not the right one. The question is what options there are for short term residents if/when the work runs out?

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 11:40am 1686613204

Many of them are filling fields that aren't as effected by recessions.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jun 23, 11:42am 1686613322

Like?

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 11:54am 1686614077

Health, engineering, IT, that sort of thing.

The fact there's a shortage to begin with means there's still likely undercapacity even if the country's employment level drops a percent or 3.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jun 23, 12:19pm 1686615565

...are you sure about that Pa1nter? When I checked 2022/23 year arrivals just now 196,217 of the 215,677 total arrivals, occupations are unknown (not recorded).

https://www.immigration.govt.nz/documents/statistics/statistics-work-ap…

Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong :)

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 12:23pm 1686615810

No one can be 100% sure on much, but there's a stronger likelihood a migrant getting residency based on meeting a skills shortage will get a job in that field, compared to an average existing worker. There's a fair bit of policing of it, at the very least, must have job or offer in relevant field, etc.

by Advisor | 13th Jun 23, 12:53pm 1686617590

Yes, the green list introduced late last year provides fast-track residency to certain experienced professionals (medical, engineering, IT, etc.) through a separate channel.

General applicants have to show a job offer or FT work paying above median wage in most cases to apply for residence via the skilled migration category. In this general category too, you can jump ahead of the queue if you earn 2x median wage ($60/hour).

Looks like these new settings are working well with residency approvals being spread evenly across occupations in the last 11 months. Unlike pe-Covid when hospitality and tourism occupations took in most of the permanent migrants.

by DrGrump | 13th Jun 23, 4:56pm 1686632195

Anecdotally, myself and most people I talk to are not seeing any meaningful increase in numbers of health workers, especially doctors.

by interesting1234 | 13th Jun 23, 12:01pm 1686614460

We historically have a brain drain in a recession as the wages in Aussie seem more attractive than struggling to get a job in NZ, and often Aussie is less impacted by recessions due to having plenty of money stored in the ground able to be pulled out at whim.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 12:05pm 1686614733

Our net migration history doesn't look to support this claim.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jun 23, 12:55pm 1686617742

So if Immigration NZ aren't recording occupations, who are you saying is policing it? Please share...

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 1:00pm 1686618037

Immigration police it, I believe MBIE collate and release the data.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jun 23, 1:27pm 1686619664

Link please :) "Health, engineering, IT, that sort of thing" I need convincing MBIE statistics will support your assertions skills immigrants are endowed with are largely recession proof.

Feel free to admit you don't know Jack ....when you comment "Many of them are filling fields that aren't as effected by recessions"

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 2:09pm 1686622171

The assertion of migrants losing jobs in recessions was yours and AFAIK there isn't historical data to back that. In fact, the basis of most of your views appears to be "time will tell", which is showing to be more likely wrong than right.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jun 23, 6:18pm 1686637086

LOL! I think you can't support your assertions and you're embarrassed. Being the open minded person that I am, all I wanted was a link to support your claim. What Pa1nter says goes - right?

This proves you know Jack .....

Time WILL tell. (edit)

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Jun 23, 5:37pm 1686634624

Pa1nter says immigrant arrivals are involved in "Health, engineering, IT, that sort of thing", well not according to this article...

"The migrants were generally lower wage-earners, he said, which could lessen the extent to which their arrival pushed up wages and prices"

"Workers were going to tourism and construction businesses, which had been short of staff"

Note "had" been short of staff. With Construction entering tough times, its easy to see why many of our recent arrivals will be facing tough choices.

Like I said Pa1nter - time WILL tell....

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300904413/migrants-fountain-of-youth-f…

by Advisor | 13th Jun 23, 1:28pm 1686619706

Most applicants actually receive open work visas because their applications aren't occupation specific. This includes partners of workers, post-study workers, holidaymakers, etc.

These temp migrants are allowed to work in any occupation lawfully. I know for a fact that MBIE doesn't collect and present any data on the occupation of these workers.

Not entirely unreasonable to expect post-study work to be limited to area of study, but that would bring the "export education" sector crashing down.

by Simon | 13th Jun 23, 11:33am 1686612834

Where to? Aussie is even worse with deliberate and govt encouraged immigration leading to long queues for rentals. UK is seeing similar.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 11:40am 1686613236

Don't crush the dreams that NZs situation is unique, and escapable.

by Colin Cameron | 13th Jun 23, 12:33pm 1686616418

And that's it forecasters usually get things wrong a bit like economists and pollsters. Remeber the aforementioned immigration wasn't even going to rebound like it did. And all the intelligent ones were heading to Aus cause of the new citizenship hasn't happened yet.

by rastus1 | 13th Jun 23, 11:45am 1686613537

Nah. Upward pressure on tents, under bridges, caravan parks, grannies couch and the like.

Time to accept a new normal. Rents/house prices will not go up, the ability to pay is reducing at a much greater rate.

by interesting1234 | 13th Jun 23, 12:05pm 1686614714

Around Nelson there seems to be a large rental deficit with regular posts on community pages of those seeking anything including a garage, shed, caravan, anything. Not surprisingly there is an increasing demand for used shipping containers around Nelson for converting to container homes for residential outhouse accommodation as well as the usual commercial customers.

What situation will we be in in 2 years time when many more have retired and still have their own house, yet those that work and need accommodation won't be able to find it?? I guess all we can pray for is the retirees considering a downsize sooner than later, or for somehow someway residential construction picks back up for the shortfall.

by huttman | 13th Jun 23, 2:03pm 1686621836

actually I see it differently. for an average person, in the labor shortage environment, they should be able to demand higher income. the new comers will only ease the labor shortage than creating a labor over supply.

So it's really people who cannot work, or less skilled that would bear most impact. but they would've been living in tent, sadly, already?

by Sluggy | 14th Jun 23, 9:00am 1686690031

So "investors" are happy with a 3% gross return ?

by Simon | 14th Jun 23, 1:51pm 1686707510

who are you replying to?

Rent increases with falling and for a while into the future flat prices will see gross yields 5% plus at the same time OCR and bank dep rates drop under 3% again.

Locking in a good price when buying is the key and then let the Labour dynamics play out.

by donny11 | 13th Jun 23, 11:17am 1686611850

This is the paradoxical kiwi economic model in its finest. We have a housing crisis, we import people to build houses to address this issue. These imported people need a home so the housing crisis gets worst. So we import more people to build houses for the people we previously imported. All the while we lack any sort of real innovation or improvements in real economy efficiency so real incomes per capita keep dropping. Thus the permanent cost of living crisis we are facing.

by Nzdan | 13th Jun 23, 11:18am 1686611923

And then we create shortages in other sectors of the economy, requiring us to import more people to fill those "skill shortages".

by Flying high | 13th Jun 23, 11:35am 1686612920

Yet we allow talent to go to waste. The min of housing was told to make night visits to KO housing.

That would be weird if it weren't for the nocturnal life

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 11:36am 1686612995

It's almost like there's a shrinking labour pool or something

by Advisor | 13th Jun 23, 1:47pm 1686620844

Shrinking labour pool? There are 628k more people working full-time in NZ in 2023 than there were a decade ago. Try fact-checking yourself every once in a while Pa1nter.

New Zealand Full Time Employment - 2023 Data - 2024 Forecast - 1986-2022 Historical (tradingeconomics.com)

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 1:58pm 1686621496

Last I checked the population is getting older, so if not for migration, there would be less workers.

by Independent_Observer | 13th Jun 23, 3:12pm 1686625941

The key would be the ratio of retired vs working age population.

My understanding is that without immigration then Treasury were forecasting for this to become unsustainable (as the large boomer demographic retired).

I.e. too much superannuation to pay and not enough tax take from working age population.

Happy to be corrected if this is a false paradigm that I'm viewing this issue from.

by Simon | 13th Jun 23, 11:27am 1686612428

No need to guess at the implications. Lag will mean we are only just going to be starting to see the effects on the numbers. It will show up first in rents and the REINZ data (QV data is late based on settlements so wait another 3 months+ for that data to catch up).

Guess it's engineered by Labour to try see some positivity before the election. As they have shown since 2017 they will lie, cheat, steal to get and retain power. Nothing is off limits.

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/121217/anz-economists-say-latest-sa…

by Independent_Observer | 13th Jun 23, 11:33am 1686612829

It is an issue across the anglosphere.

Retiring boomers leaving a hole in our working age population.

Governments need more people to tax and to provide goods and services to retired boomer cohort.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 11:37am 1686613046

Oh, and also, household sizes are shrinking so there's less places for people to live.

by Small Kev | 13th Jun 23, 2:56pm 1686624969

$400 per room per week, Wi-Fi “Not” included.

by Squishy | 13th Jun 23, 11:30am 1686612612

As long as they don't demand to live in houses or use our hospitals.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 11:33am 1686612809

They're migrants, not retirees.

by Camel's back | 13th Jun 23, 12:50pm 1686617452

Retirees have a house, migrants dont. Been to Middlemore lately?

by nktokyo | 13th Jun 23, 12:47pm 1686617264

Or eat Kumara...

by Noncents | 13th Jun 23, 11:46am 1686613588

Nothing fixes inflation faster than more people wanting access to the same resources.

Government and RBNZ will fight each other all the way to our graves.

by IT GUY | 13th Jun 23, 12:17pm 1686615437

All the new migrants and house prices fell 3% and retail sales are a disaster, they are not bringing in cash as the current account is also a disaster..... Once here they are not spending money or we would be seeing better retail sales.... maybe trademe is doing well.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 12:18pm 1686615537

Two things to factor in:

- how much worse would the figures be otherwise

- how much inertia is there between arrivals, and our economic indexes

by Yvil | 13th Jun 23, 12:34pm 1686616474

It's far too soon to come to this conclusion yet, IT.

by nktokyo | 13th Jun 23, 12:45pm 1686617100

Calm down. It takes months for numbers to change.

Much of the inflation we are seeing now happened in 2022 (for example).

by K.W. | 13th Jun 23, 12:32pm 1686616335

Now do all the people who have left New Zealand this year.

Since 1 March, a net 101,255 people have departed the country. I wonder how many of the newly arrived migrants will be doing the same when they realise how low the wages here are, how expensive everything is, how bad the crime rate is, and how crap our education system is. They're probably all just waiting on a visa for Australia or Canada.

by Yvil | 13th Jun 23, 12:36pm 1686616607

"Since 1 March, a net 101,255 people have departed the country"

Very doubtful that over 100'000 more people have left NZ than have arrived in 3 months. Source?

by K.W. | 13th Jun 23, 1:19pm 1686619196

Daily Customs data. March a net loss of 24,355. April a net loss of 34,339. May a net loss of 34,367. First week of June a net loss of 8,164. So unless people are teleporting into the country, those numbers are accurate.

by Matt_B | 13th Jun 23, 4:20pm 1686630046

In the first 12 days of June

Net loss of 10,471 NZ Passport holders and a 2,045 gain of other Passport holders

Not even School holidays yet

by Simon | 14th Jun 23, 1:57pm 1686707848

Yet in just March and April, two months, net migration (immigration in less immigration out) was up a net 19k, with net +72330 increase to the year ending April 2023. 72K is close to record highs pre-pandemic and much higher than long term averages which generally sit around 40k net increases.

Business travel, holidays, lots of reasons to fly internationally (caught in the raw customs data) without it meaning anything to the longer term impact on population.

by K.W. | 14th Jun 23, 6:36pm 1686724564

You realise the Stats NZ numbers are just a guess? An estimate, based on assumptions used in a computer model. Since they have no actual data to work off. They come back 16 months later and check the Customs data to see whether all the people who arrived left or not, and if all the people who left came back, then they "adjust" their figures. So in this case, they will be checking if those 101,000 people came back, and if they didnt, then they will adjust their migration figure downwards. But of course it will be too late for anyone to care by July 2024.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 12:46pm 1686617172

I wonder how little you're aware of what most of the rest of the world is like in comparison.

Actually maybe a better question is, where are these places with cheap houses, high incomes, low costs of living, low crime, amazing education system, and has relatively open borders. Dubai (so long as you're not one of their indentured workers)?

by K.W. | 13th Jun 23, 1:39pm 1686620383

Most of Australia, outside of Sydney or Melbourne. Even then, its still probably cheaper to live in outer Sydney or Melbourne than Auckland.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 1:50pm 1686621045

So basically anywhere the bulk of people dont want to live then?

by K.W. | 13th Jun 23, 2:24pm 1686623062

Depends. I lived 13 years in Melbourne, enjoyed it, but won't go back there. I'm looking at the Gold Coast now, after considering Newcastle. There are lots of lovely cities in Australia, and they all need the same skills as everywhere else - doctors, nurses, teachers, builders, chefs ... probably even more so than in the big cities. For older people who want to build a life rather than be at some trendy bar or restaurant every night, there are lots of places to choose from.

by HouseMouse | 13th Jun 23, 5:43pm 1686635038

I lived in Adelaide for a few years - very nice city. I know people who have moved to Brisbane who rave about it. I visited there last year and was impressed.

by nktokyo | 13th Jun 23, 12:43pm 1686617010

Have they departed to move overseas permanently or are you including those who shot off on a holiday. I suspect the latter.

by K.W. | 13th Jun 23, 1:23pm 1686619428

Those who leave on holiday come back so their departure becomes an arrival a few weeks later. Likewise tourists arrive, then leave again within a short period. So its the rolling net number that matters, as it automatically cancels out all the short term arrivals and departures.

by Cur8or | 13th Jun 23, 12:44pm 1686617044

No party to vote for on this issue, so no point in voting. Do you want the politicians to wear red or blue ties while they f#$& you?

by nktokyo | 13th Jun 23, 12:45pm 1686617149

Green party at least are open that they tax you more while you are bending over.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 12:47pm 1686617249

The same party would have to advertise how much extra tax you'll be paying in the void of less extra workers.

by Cur8or | 13th Jun 23, 12:50pm 1686617402

Or how much less tax because less services and infrastructure to fund.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 23, 12:57pm 1686617832

Most of our services are sucked up by people outside working age/capability

by Cur8or | 13th Jun 23, 1:58pm 1686621534

I think housing affordability is my main concern. I don't mind paying a bit more tax if house prices halve.

by nktokyo | 13th Jun 23, 12:47pm 1686617224

Rental availability crunch. As an owner I just hope it hits the news before the election so the government has the opportunity to defend their record on housing.

by WestieAJ | 13th Jun 23, 12:57pm 1686617851

NZ Customs capture the data daily. Jan 23 -May 23 380k arrivals and 413 k departures. So a net loss of 33k.

Are the arrivals on Work Visas mentioned in this article first time arrivals or people returning from holidays etc that just happen to be entering back to NZ on a Work Visa?

HTF do we not know 100% what is going on with immigration when it is so critical for all other decisions that are being made? It's like we don't want to know on purpose. Leave it up to reckons and revisions. Confusion is the most effective consumer marketing strategy.

by K.W. | 13th Jun 23, 1:29pm 1686619772

YTD there have been 2,216,778 arrivals and 2,241,643 departures. Still a net loss of 33k though. But if you look at just the last three months alone its a net loss of 101,255. There was a big influx of people in February as all the RSE workers arrived for harvest, they should be returning home this month.

by WestieAJ | 13th Jun 23, 3:11pm 1686625869

Sorry the grand total on the OIA response PDF was actually just the total for May. https://www.customs.govt.nz/globalassets/documents/statistics/oia-respo…

Can even rely on a government department to add up a couple of columns.

by HouseMouse | 13th Jun 23, 6:01pm 1686636070

Doing nice work on this K.W. Pity that journos aren’t.

Will be interesting to monitor this. i see ASB forecasting net migration of 100k for this year. Let’s see how accurate that is.

by KH | 13th Jun 23, 1:10pm 1686618652

New Zealand would be richer and a better place with a smaller population.

by interesting1234 | 14th Jun 23, 1:07pm 1686704856

Give it 10-20years, it will drop off sharply if they don't crank the immigration to 9000 to keep the numbers up but then again the western world will be facing the same competition for labour and the same aging population dilemma

by Takere | 13th Jun 23, 1:21pm 1686619283

One million dollars a day for motels. How's that going?

It will only get worse from here on in. There's not enough bridges to fit them all under.

Convert office buildings into boxes for accommodation? Eliminate Airbnb by taxing them into oblivion?

Here's a novel idea. Build some houses??!!

by K.W. | 13th Jun 23, 1:32pm 1686619935

And the Labour Govt got a whole extra $22M from removing the "tax loophole" for landlords to cover that $365M bill. Back in 2017 the spend on emergency housing was just $36M a year, so its gone up TEN TIMES since Labour took over. How's that for a legacy, Dame Jacinda?

by WestieAJ | 13th Jun 23, 3:05pm 1686625525

We could always look to the cage homes of Hong Kong for inspiration.

by Nzdan | 14th Jun 23, 11:46am 1686700005

Do you know why people ended up in motels costing $1m per day? Have a look at the total managed Kainga Ora stock over the years, this is "state housing". From 2015 - 17, a reduction of 4k state houses. That's 12k people if a conservative 3 people per house.

by K.W. | 14th Jun 23, 6:46pm 1686725162

You need to add back the houses that were sold to Community Housing Providers (CHPs) who provide social housing as well, like this one https://www.ocht.org.nz/about/about-ocht/

Kainga Ora is not the only provider of social housing. National focused on outsourcing it to those most competent to provide it, while Labour doubled the number of Kainga Ora employees on $200k salaries to do exactly the same job but delivered even less.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/kainga-ora-hiring-spree-1000-extra-staff-…

by Von Metternich | 13th Jun 23, 1:23pm 1686619398

My working hypothesis is that this is chain migration driven by the COVID amnesty passed last year by Labour.

Remember when the Labour party was about improving the working conditions and wages of ordinary people? Not in recent memory, that is for sure.

by HouseMouse | 13th Jun 23, 5:48pm 1686635327

Our Indian neighbours’ older parents are now here permanently, since a few months ago. Daycare solved!

by John from Bunnings | 13th Jun 23, 3:04pm 1686625482

What a mess. Luckily I can just move to Australia , easy fix.

by Small Kev | 13th Jun 23, 4:03pm 1686629008

Tighter rental market, what would the government do to increase the rental supply as they are already struggling…..

by kiwi_overseas | 13th Jun 23, 6:04pm 1686636280

Insane.

Where are we going to house them?

Also our carbon emission targets are absolute not per capita.

Employers bringing staff here should be forced to bid. That’s the only way to level the cost vs training New Zealanders.

Otherwise it’s just a subsidy to them and they will continue to demand “cheap” labour from overseas.

by Simon | 14th Jun 23, 2:00pm 1686708019

International migration: April 2023 | Stats NZ