National Party will bring in new talent this election with five fresh candidates in winnable list spots

National has released its party list for the 2023 election which features a number of new candidates, as the party recovers from a devastating defeat in 2020. 

A simple average of recent polls shows the party is on track to win about 46 seats in Parliament, up considerably from the 33 it won in 2020. 

It’s difficult to predict how many electorates the party will win, but one informed guess puts the number at roughly 36. That would mean just ten MPs would come in on the list.

However, long-serving MP and former minister, Michael Woodhouse, will not be one of them.

He asked to be taken off the list on Saturday morning, after seeing his position on it.

In a statement, Woodhouse said that he’d been put low on the list which suggested he would not have been given a ministerial role in a National Cabinet. 

“It was clear from the rank offered that I was not part of the leadership’s thinking regarding Ministerial positions, so I feel the best thing to do is to stand aside and allow a fresher face into caucus from the list,” he said. 

Christopher Luxon, party leader, said the list was not necessarily reflective of ministerial positions but he respected Woodhouse’s decision. 

Woodhouse will campaign for a seat in Dunedin but he’s not expected to win. 

Refreshed ranking

The list looks quite different from 2020, with Luxon and his deputy Nicola Willis in the top two spots, up from #61 and #13 respectively. 

Willis could win her seat in Ohariu but will likely use up the first list spot. 

Former leader Judith Collins has retaining a high ranking at #10, while her deputy Shane Reti has climbed one place to #4 on the new list. Both should win their electorates 

Gerry Brownlee is the highest ranked list-only MP at #14, he failed to hold onto his long-held seat in Christchurch’s Ilam last election and won’t contest it in 2023. 

He’ll take up a spot on the list, but ahead of him will be Epsom candidate Paul Goldsmith and Mt Albert candidate Melissa Lee. Those are secure Act and Labour seats. 

National’s new Ilam candidate, Hamish Campbell ranked #63, will have to beat both the Labour incumbent and TOP leader Raf Manji if he wants to be in Parliament. 

After Brownlee, accountant Nancy Lu would be next in line for a seat. She’s a list-only candidate that fell six seats short last election. 

Fresh new faces

Lu would be one of five new MP’s to come in on the list: Napier candidate Katie Nimon, business woman Agnes Loheni, Remutaka candidate Emma Chatterton, and lawyer James Christmas. 

West-Coast Tasman candidate Maureen Pugh (ranked at number #26) would be home safe with the eighth list seat, while Christmas would pick up the tenth and last list spot. 

He was a former advisor to Chris Finlayson and has been tipped to go straight into cabinet as Attorney-General and Treaty Negotiations Minister — if he makes it to Parliament at all.

These numbers are highly speculative and depend both on the party vote and which electorate seats the party wins. 

For example, Simon O’Connor could be ousted from his seat in Tamaki by the Act Party challenger Brooke Van Velden. At number 54 on the list, he’d not be returning to parliament. 

Sylvia Wood, National Party president, said the list was a refreshed, talented line up of people with real-world experience.

“This is a team that can step up to provide New Zealand with the strong stable government it needs to get things done and deliver the change New Zealanders need to get ahead,” she said. 

There are 21 women and 19 men in the top 40 representing European, Māori, Indian, Cook Island, Samoan, Korean, Filipino, Tongan and Chinese New Zealanders.

However, nine of the top ten candidates were Pākehā and six were men. The ratio was similar in the top 20, with 16 Pākehā candidates and a dozen men.

The list spots will help to get more women into Parliament. Seven of ten most-likely list candidates were women, but only three weren’t of European descent.

National’s 2023 party list