After difficulties pulling together census information from poor response rates in each of the last two nationwide surveys, Stats NZ will now compile the required information annually based on a smaller survey and already collected data

It's official: The census survey as we know it has been axed. But we are definitely getting a monthly inflation measure.  

The 2023 census will be the last of five-yearly nationwide surveys, replaced by use of 'administrative data' supported by a smaller annual survey and targeted data collection.

The move was formally announced by Statistics Minister Shane Reti on Wednesday, but was largely foreshadowed last year when Statistics NZ began a round of public consultation seeking approval for the change now announced.

After the disaster that was the 2018 census, with poor response rates - particularly among Maori and Pacific people - Stats NZ was forced to use 'admin data' to bolster the available information. Admin data includes such things as birth records, school enrollment information and tax information.

For the 2023 census Stats NZ purposely tailored the exercise to use both the traditional survey material and admin data - and redoubled efforts to get a better overall response. The full cost of it is over $300 million.

But as Stats NZ's Statutory Review of the 2023 census showed, while the response rate was better, at 88.3%, it still fell below the 90% target. The response rates of Maori and Pacific peoples likewise improved, but the Maori response rate was still well short of the 90% target at 76.7%, while the Pacific peoples' response rate was 79.9%.

The next census had been planned for 2028 but now won't go ahead.

Reti gave a starting date for the new approach to collection of census material as 2030.

"Relying solely on a nationwide census day is no longer financially viable. In 2013, the census cost $104 million. In 2023, costs had risen astronomically to $325 million and the next was expected to come in at $400 million over five years," he said.

"Despite the unsustainable and escalating costs, successive censuses have been beset with issues or failed to meet expectations.

"By leveraging data already collected by government agencies, we can produce key census statistics every year, better informing decisions that affect people’s lives."

Reti said  while administrative data will form the backbone of the new approach, surveys will continue to verify data quality and fill gaps. Stats NZ will work closely with communities to ensure smaller population groups are accurately represented.

He also commented on the plan for Stats NZ to start delivering a monthly Consumers Price Index (CPI) from 2027, which was announced in this year's Budget. 

The CPI is the country's official measure of inflation and its the measure that the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) uses in its consideration of deploying the Official Cash Rate in order to achieve an inflation rate between 1% and 3%. New Zealand is a global outlier in having an inflation measure produced only quarterly as opposed to a monthly measure - and the RBNZ in particular has been calling for some time for more timely economic information. 

The Government says it will invest $16.5 million to deliver the monthly CPI, "bringing New Zealand into line with other advanced economies".

"This will provide more timely inflation data to help the Government and Reserve Bank respond quickly to cost-of-living pressures," Reti said.

"Inflation affects interest rates, benefit adjustments, and household budgets. Timely data helps ensure Kiwis are better supported in a fast-changing environment.".

Reti says the census and CPI changes "reflect a broader reset for Stats NZ".

"Some outputs have not met the standard expected of a world-class statistics agency. We’re getting back to basics – measuring what matters. Our goal is a modern, efficient, and reliable data system that delivers the insights New Zealand needs now and into the future."