Migration is adding just over 1000 people a month to New Zealand's total population, down from almost 6000 a month a year ago and 9000 a month two years ago.
Statistics NZ estimates that 138,923 people arrived long term in the 12 months to June 2025, while 125,221 left long term, giving a net gain of 13,701 for the year to June.
By comparison, in the 12 months to June 2024 there were 181,042 long term arrivals and 110,658 long term departures, giving a net gain of 70,385.
And in the 12 months to June 2023, there were 207,157 long term arrivals and 98,760 long term departures, giving a net gain of 108,397.
So over the last two years, long term arrivals have declined by 68,234 (-32.9%) and long term departures have increased by 26,461 (26.8%), while the overall annual net gain has declined by 94,696 (-87%).
Most of the change over the last two years has been driven by fewer non-NZ citizens coming to this country long term, while the number of NZ citizens leaving the country long term or coming back after an extended stay overseas has been relatively stable.
In the 12 months to June this year, 25,352 NZ citizens arrived back in the country long term, compared to 24,250 in the 12 months to June 2023.
That figure has changed relatively little over the last four years.
Over the same period, the number of NZ citizens leaving the country long term has increased from 60,431 to 71,850, up 18.9% over the last two years.
The big movement has been in the number of foreign citizens coming here long term, which has declined from 182,907 in the 12 months to June 2023, to 113,571 in the 12 months to June this year, a decrease of 69,336 people a year (-37.9%).
The impact of that was magnified by increasing numbers of foreign citizens leaving the country long term, which climbed from 38,329 in the 12 months to June 2023, to 53,372 in the 12 months to June this year, an increase of 15,043 (39.2%).
So overall, there was a net loss 46,488 NZ citizens in the 12 months to June this year compared to a net loss of 36,181 NZ citizens in the 12 months to June 2023.
Over the same period there was a net gain of 60,199 citizens of other countries, down from 144,578 in the 12 months to June 2023.
Net long term migration
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28 Comments
Does that mean the population is going backwards?
It's probably aging faster now.
Reasonably impressed the coalition hasn’t fixed the economy through the normal approaches- immigration and house prices. Or maybe they’ve tried and failed?
Listened to Bill English last year, they're fairly aware that another period of high house price appreciation for them would be political suicide.
That and they can't pump house prices and migration, because the last lot already did that too recently.
Where do I see immigrants? In the likes of New World supermarkets, couriers etc. Clearly many of our corporates have departments and schemes to bring in people to fill basic roles. At minimum wage of course, and in the contract rorts, less.
We should not allow this. If my supermarket needs to pay more to attract local applicants so be it. We need an econoy where one can walk into a job, even if it is just shelf filling. We don't now.
(acknowledging there are many immigrant jobs I don't encounter)
It's not really just about pay. There's a bunch of jobs you will struggle attracting a local with, for any money (within reason), and at the end of the day, most migrants are just more reliable employees.
Number of times I've had a non indigenous worker call in sick on a Friday or Monday, or have their personal life effect their work = 0
Number of times I've had a Kiwi do the same = way too many to count
Without immigration I doubt we have enough working age people to fill all the roles. We could end up with the scenario that the supermarket checkout pays more than surgery if the working age population declines while the consumers increase
You can earn crazy money servicing sceptic tanks. You still can't persuade someone earning even half as much to do it.
I have a theory that it will be apathy that ends western dominance. A kid growing up in China will take any opportunity they can to get ahead. In NZ you can live a cruisey life without bothering. People think that poverty is our biggest problem, I wonder if a lack of poverty is actually worse.
Western dominance is more a product of historical disparities between the West and most of the rest of the world, than any inherent superiority. Remember at one point, 12% of the world, held 90% of its wealth. 10,000 English with firearms controlled hundreds of millions of Indians.
We assumed (wrongly) that we could export our manufacturing to all these backwards nations, and our wonderous superiority would have us continue our trajectory to even greater prosperity and advancement.
Only that's a nonsense, and these other nations have developed at great pace (the blueprint was already made by us over centuries), and are competing with us for those future advancements. Only they're closer to an era of deprivation, and are hungrier.
It is very hard, close to impossible to reverse the trajectory without us falling into poverty first.
I think the outsourcing would be fine had we kept upskilling ourselves.but too lazy.
Very hard to say. There should have been some tax/levy on the imports to compensate for the changes to our economic structure.
We have gained in some fields, but it seems inevitable that the wealth disparity enjoyed for so long was going to reverse.
I doubt anyone would want an overpriced US car or phone when you can get a better cheaper one from China. They would have stolen the tech regardless.
Any country that forces their citizens to buy inferior crap via tariffs would fail I reckon. Like being forced to buy a Lada.
A tariff to fund things like infrastructure and education in the importers country, not to incentivise local production.
And you make decent money selling new pumps etc as well... its a great business, have family in the shitty business.
Easier money in the install though the servicing gets you through the quiet periods.
Drives a new ford ranger...
"Without immigration I doubt we have enough working age people to fill all the roles. "
With 200,000 people on Jobseeker why would you think that?
https://www.msd.govt.nz/documents/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-r…
Hint: it's not age, it's attitude.
Good point. Still that is only a few years worth of the immigration levels we were seeing.
I doubt you would want some of those jobseekers working at your local supermarket...
"If my supermarket needs to pay more to attract local applicants so be it"
You forgot to add: " and I'm happy to pay even more for my groceries to pay fo the higher wages"
And then everything else once everyone else also demands a pay rise.
And Yvil. You forgot to add you are happy to pay and support 200,000 on job seeker benefits.
Good. A great time have a rethink about who we should be allowing in and what they're doing once they've arrived. We need high quality immigrants who help to ease the critical skills shortages and actually follow that path. We don't need more Uber drivers and Bunnings staff.
A willy nilly immigration policy is not an economic growth strategy despite what most politicians believe. The data proves it.
We need both. Actually it'd be more preferable that the locals did all the high pay jobs, and we just have an army of migrant cannon fodder to do all the lower tier stuff. Instead, we'll have an over educated population, and a skills shortages at the same time.
A willy nilly immigration policy is not an economic growth strategy despite what most politicians believe. The data proves it.
The data proves that growth is related to a sustained or increasing population, and a declining population has never been effectively managed. So a potentially bad option, over an untenable one.
I’ve always wondered why people want high skilled migrants while locals run the dairies and Ubers…
I'm guessing it's something along the lines of; they're higher tax payers, they're filling a high end shortage we'd take too long to train someone up, and maybe they'd be a better class of people?
But it's fairly self defeating, most of our day to day activities are depending on an army of menial workers. You may need a doctor once every year or to, but you fairly regularly need someone to empty your trash, make food for you, etc.
Lowering pressure on our stretched infrastructure and providing more breathing space for the infrastructure deficit to narrow + hopefully this will also drive a bit of wage pressure to deliver some real income growth too. Hopefully this trends continues for the foreseeable
My daughter works casual at new world, started shelf stacker now mainly checkout.
Its mainly NZers not migrants and its very competitive to get in, younger daughter hoping having sister on inside will help. They grab casual shifts on an app, normally 6 or 8 hours rarely shorter...
Now she makes money she is much tighter with it, and really objects to 17% out of the blocks tax....
plus kiwisaver
The life lessons start young...I remember my age 12/13 daughters disillusionment & disappointment at the tax on her first paper round pay packet
Gives them a good work ethic though!!!
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