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Policies worthy of Soviet Russia circa 1926, seem ludicrously heroic in the New Zealand of 2026

Public Policy / opinion
Policies worthy of Soviet Russia circa 1926, seem ludicrously heroic in the New Zealand of 2026
soviet

By Chris Trotter*

How on earth did New Zealand’s supermarkets become the catalyst for draconian state interventionism?

 While the Greens’ veering sharply in the direction of that Old Time Socialist Religion might have been anticipated, few would have predicted the National Party slipstreaming them quite so blatantly. The upshot of the largest conservative party’s sudden conversion to the doctrines of “Comrade State” has been to make the Labour Party (which once favoured the nationalisation of all farmland!) look like the soul of moderation.

Truly, the 2026 General Election grows weirder with every passing day.

Perhaps the weirdest aspect of this “Crush the Profiteering Supermarkets!” sentiment currently gripping our major political parties is its sheer economic insouciance. It would be interesting to discover which National Party MPs, interviewed privately and with full name suppression guaranteed, would ‘fess up to the news media that they are absolutely confident that the logic of the marketplace can be resisted with enduring success by the intervention of politicians.

My prediction would be: “Not many, if any.”

Even among the Greens there must surely be a handful of MPs who are less than certain that nationalising a swathe of private enterprises and setting-up a state-owned supermarket chain will end happily. It requires a tremendous leap of faith (and an almost total ignorance of modern history) to believe that such a supermarket chain could thrive, even in circumstances where all private competition had been abolished. The proposition that that a state-owned “KiwiMart” could successfully compete against two, strong, privately-owned supermarket chains, while worthy of Soviet Russia circa 1926, seems ludicrously heroic in the New Zealand of 2026.

Labour, bless it, still carries sufficient neoliberal antibodies in its bloodstream to resist the temptation of reverting to the economics of Harry Holland (he of land nationalisation fame). Its “solution” to the supermarkets’ alleged profiteering is to:

  • Make price gouging illegal, so big companies can no longer rip you off
  • Make sure smaller supermarkets can access products at the same wholesale prices as the big players, breaking the big two’s grip on the market 
  • End the unfair contracts that stop local stores like Four Square cutting their prices
  • Stop the giants cutting off supply to smaller supermarkets the moment they start winning customers
  • Ban the junk fees they squeeze out of our farmers and food producers

So, when it comes to channelling the spirits of the market-tamers of yesteryear, Chris Hipkins would appear to be inspired less by Lenin than he is by Teddy Roosevelt. Even so, the measures he has announced hardly seem attuned to the prime objective of all private enterprises – i.e. the maximisation of profit.

Nor, strangely, do they show any appreciation of the role played by supermarkets in keeping modern capitalist societies even vaguely affordable.

Without the sheer scale of the big supermarket chains; without their overwhelming market power; the price of the ordinary working family’s basic necessities would be much higher. While abjuring the drama of nationalisation and mandatory divestment, Labour’s policies are every bit as hostile to the market’s implacable calculation of profit and loss.

If voters wish to see “price-gouging” in operation, then I suggest they visit their local dairy or superette. Not that any sensible politician would move against the pricing regime of corner-store retailers. If these hardy shopkeepers didn’t “gouge” they’d go broke. People patronise them on account of their convenience, not for their competitive prices!

Passing laws and/or imposing regulations to equalise the market strength of retailers large and small is equally Quixotic. The profound inequality of market participants is critical to the supermarkets’ profitability. Without it, the savings flowing from their savagely enforced wholesale pricing regime would not be there to pass on to their customers.

Stripped of its monopsonic advantage, the supermarket duopoly would soon fall prey to the avaricious instincts common to every small farmer since Adam was chucked out of Eden. Their incomes would rise, but so, too, would the price of food on the supermarkets’ shelves. The small farmers would praise the market-defying politicians, the workers would curse them.

Perhaps the strangest aspect of Labour’s policy is its firm intent to rid the sector of unequal and unfair contracts, and to prohibit the duopoly’s ruthless deployment of its market power by means of profoundly distorting interventions.

To conceive of such a policy is to betray a completely inadequate understanding of capitalist dynamics. Fairness and equitable treatment are antithetical to capitalist enterprise. Always, the imperative is to absorb and/or eliminate the competition. Monopoly isn’t an aberrant market phenomenon, it is a profoundly rational economic goal.

What the Greens, Labour, and now even National, do not seem to have grasped is that New Zealand’s supermarket duopoly has always been a self-defensive public relations exercise. For many years now the two dominant players used it to protect themselves from the political intervention which an undisguised monopoly would inevitably have prompted. Woolworths and Foodstuffs are competitors, not collaborators. That is their story, and they are sticking to it.

Were KiwiMart to become a reality it would not be long before Chloe Swarbrick and her comrades were forced to accept that you cannot serve God and Mammon.

To provide the voters with more affordable food, along with all the other products essential to a Kiwi household, the state would have to undercut, by a discernible margin, the prices of its private competitors. All other things being equal, this would require KiwiMart’s owners (that would be us) to subsidise a fair number of the items in the average Kiwi shopping basket.

How could the private supermarkets compete? Simple answer: they couldn’t. If they attempted to do so without access to the state subsidisation enjoyed by their publicly-owned competitor, then in very short order they’d go broke. Mammon would drag them under.

In a democracy, unfairness on this scale would be very hard to sell. It would be interpreted by capitalists large and small as a direct threat to their survival and they would deploy all their resources to removing any government reckless enough to let it happen. Responding to such pressure, the guilty government would almost certainly extend the subsidies advantaging KiwiMart to the now struggling private supermarkets.

Good news for consumers. Bad news for taxpayers. Absolutely bloody brilliant news for supermarkets – public and private.

Some might describe all this as ruinous socialism. Others will doubtless characterise it as manifesting kindness in an unkind world. But what nobody should be permitted to get away with calling it, under any circumstances, is capitalism.


*Chris Trotter has been writing and commenting professionally about New Zealand politics for more than 30 years. He writes a weekly column for interest.co.nz. His work may also be found at http//:bowalleyroad.blogspot.com.

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34 Comments

You really don’t need to be too cynical to appreciate that this is just the right hand side of the field trying to out grandstand the left hand side of the field. When campaigning can become so blatantly hyperbolised it is little wonder that parliament itself, as a debating chamber, is now virtually pointless. Whatever status  the subject supermarkets have attained has been done so lawfully and overtly under the watch of a good number of governments without a naysayer amongst them. Wresting that off them would mean drastic intervention that it is difficult to imagine any coalition government having  the cohesion , stomach or legislative skill to achieve. So back to the first sentence just each side of the field blowing hot air at one another. 

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FG. Yes, hot air with little likelihood of much coming from it for sure but an issue with significant election day influence which cannot be ignored. Put yourself in Luxon's shoes; a charismatic Trotsky like rabble rouser in the form of Swarbrick promises to deal to the parasitic enemy of the people and in the process boosts the greens support to 14%. Hapless Luxo, with Peters nationalistic breath hot in his ear, has no choice than to at least go through the motions of slapping the supermarket owners wrists.  

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Aye and it doesn’t stop there. The concept of local councils having power to force tenants onto retail landlords is risible, farcical in fact. There is no comprehension of basic common law, the Magna Carta for instance,  that protect citizens from Crown intervention into legitimately owned property. I doubt that any trained legal professional would abandon their principles to even draft up a law to enforce such a draconian remit.

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The supermarke debat is a convenient dead rat /  strawman thrown on the table to distract from the last 4 decades of NZ government economic failures across the Left / Right spectrum.

I  pretty much agree with CTs take above (except his understanding of capitalism is still too stuck in last century's class struggles)

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I would like to see rebates being made illegal. Its everywhere, from Xero paying accountants, to building supplies, to food. 

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In lots of sectors.

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nt. The counter argument is that rebates are simply a form of margin that an end purchaser would be paying one way or another. A perhaps more corrosive effect is that products attracting the highest rebate rather than those that are best fit, are promoted.       

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Sad as it is he is likely right. While the duopoly are undoubtably thwarting competition and operate on excessive margins even 1% on too expensive is too much.

If margin and supplier control were the only reason groceries were too expensive then the likes of your local butcher would be outcompeting them....have a look around, they're are as expensive if not more so.

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They are definitely alert and savvy as to what exactly the market will yield, in other words what consumers are prepared to buy. The only other considerations then are basically,  volume and range. For example post the limitations on supply during covid, many lines of alternative brands have not reappeared in our main supermarket and nor did the bulk of the higher prices retreat much. A policy of not so much what our customers want and can afford, but instead, what they will accept and can pay for it

 

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Make price gouging illegal, so big companies can no longer rip you off

Kroger was accused by academics and politicians for price gouging in 2022.

The money supply increased by 38% over the 5 years preceding 2022. All Kroger's financial reports show Kroger's revenue rose directly in-line with their expenses (23%) over the 5 years, and at a slower pace than the growth of money supply (38%). They had flat (and extremely low) profit margins of 1.43%. So it's the denominator going down. Not gouging. 

The money supply began increasingly massively under the Trump administration in 2020, due to large monetized fiscal deficits for stimulus purposes. It continued to increase massively under the Biden administration in 2021.

This money supply growth, with a lag as it pushed through the system, contributed to broad-based price increases starting later in 2021. The fault is not entirely owned by either Republicans or Democrats, but rather both.

When you print a ton of money, aggregate prices are very likely to increase, as more money chases a similar amount of goods and services and overall production capability. Otherwise, printing money would make everyone rich. If you look at Kroger's profits in gold-denominated terms, they're not making any more money than they were years ago. Instead, it's the denominator of their profits, the dollar, that has gone down due to the printing of a lot more dollars.

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I believe a good deal of the monetary expansion was due to lockdowns/Covid, as was the case in the UK, when money supply growth spiked at circa 15% in late 2020, compared with 3% in 2019.  We then had inflation, no surprise, and the cost of living crisis gripping Western Nations.  I remember listening to monetarists (not many of them left) claiming that would be the case back in 2020, and so it was.

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In NZ Marcus, we had ~$70Billion of govt borrowing for the covid relief, but this was dwarfed entirely by the gigantic rise in private debt taken on due to many NZ'ers coming home due to uncertainty, buying houses, and the price of housing skyrocketing due to this, and the RBNZ removing loan-to-value ratios, as well as creating the Funding for Lending Programme (banks had access to borrow form a ~$14billion pool of funds from the RBNZ that could be lent at the OCR rate, then add some margin for free, ticket clipping profit), so the incentive to lend, lend lend was incredible for them and irresistible.

The wash of money lent into existence by the banks alongside the COVID money expanded the money supply substantially leading to our inflation bulge.

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All the parties seem imprisoned in generally market-based solutions they control. 

I think it's because they're politicians: they can't bear not being involved in a 'solution' and, preferably, in control. 

It leads to an infuriating lack of vision and creativity. 

Co-ops are big enterprises in the UK and other places and, beyond groceries, they cover things like insurance, legal services and loans. They work well for consumers. That co-ops aren't even part of the conversation here is dispiriting and emblematic of a lack of vision and ambition. 

 

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I think it's because they're politicians: they can't bear not being involved in a 'solution' and, preferably, in control. 

I think that may be thinking too deeply into it. Of course politicians need votes to get or retain power. The political promises are getting more frequent, and vague, as the days go on and the election gets closer. That's about as much as I see it. They need votes and will say or do whatever they wish to sway the populace to vote for them. 

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Co-op does have many stores in the UK, although they tend to be corner type, and certainly not the cheapest.  

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The co-op benchmark the pricing of their basics to Aldi, who are price leaders. 

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This reminds me of when labour was in last time. I worked, unpaid, on several advisory groups in Wellington for ministries. Every time a problem came up they would employ another contractor, now that was a good job, and form another committee which then employed some graduates to run. It was a merry go round that went no where and just spent money. The end result was nothing happened as each time they wanted to do something it caused more issues and a new merry go round was formed. I gave up as it was wasteful and they listened to no one. 

Life’s not fair, never has been, never will be but we probably live in one of the fairer countries of the world believe it or not.

Life will not be like post covid again with free money being poured onto the country creating an artificial high and unreal expectations. That out pouring of money, around the world, into the economy has caused inflation along with energy disruptions adding to it. The housing market has fallen as we all wanted it to, and now that has stopped the money flow, especially in Auckland, and hospo etc feel it hard and we all wish for it to take off again.

Maybe we have to enter NZ in the 70s early 80s again for many to realise it was not a nice place or much fun in many ways. 

 

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Good comment Jack. I too did some unpaid advisory work for Labour and found it very frustrating.

I think if they are ever back in government they need to stop the governing by committee model. Especially where it comes to infrastructure. 

I remember when I did the research into what went wrong with Cook Straight Ferry debacle. From the Labour side it was clear their Ports Group model failed. Members of the group essentially used the governance structure to impose a veto to extract benefits for themselves and impose a cost to the public purse. In no way did the process optimize costs and benefits. The various actors were not constrained by budgets. There was no accountability or transparency. And despite the large numbers in the groups there was very little technical expertise. 

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/128602/brendon-harre-makes-case-taking-minimum-viable-design-approach-could-have

 

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I've done advisory work for a largish government industry development group, and I worked out that there were two of us who had any actual industry experience. Endless process that was seen as much more important than getting a good - or any - result as there were no sanctions or incentives to do anything but talk a good game.

It was kind of soul sapping to endure. 

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Would not a solution be more competition?

I mention this, thinking back to 2010-2012 as the UK emerged from the financial crisis.  The UK's major food retailers were hugely impacted then by an aggressive expansion of Lidl & Aldi.  They were and remain hugely price competitive.  They went from circa 8% market share in 2010 to 20% presently.  Their strategy forced the majors to reduce prices/limit price increases, and over the years 2010-2019 it was very noticeable, especially as more affluent bods began shopping in their stores, as in .....'my, I say, you bought that at Aldi'!  Response.....'indeed, and you should try a visit yourself, damned good bargains to be had I can assure you'.  

Indeed, so successful has their strategy been that Tesco etc will now say - Aldi/Lidl price match. 

Now, NZ is different to the UK, being far removed from major supply chains, but surely, thinking of the motto - there is no such thing as a problem Government cannot make worse - more competition trumps Government meddling!

 

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More competition is the key to lower prices for sure, but the NZ market is so tiny and the cost to establish a new wholesale/distribution supply chain so large, it would take years for a new entrant to achieve a reasonable ROI

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Indeed.  I wonder what the relationship of farmers/supermarkets is in NZ?

In the UK farmers complain about being at the mercy of the supermarkets who demand good deals.  As far as I am aware there is no large entity such as Fontera etc. in the UK which can pressure or dictate the supermarkets on price (as in upwards).  In the UK it is the reverse, supermarkets push prices down, or so farmers complain.

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The problem is systemic. A result of (multiple layers of) return seeking and currency variation not to mention the fact that it is all predicated on a declining resource and is operating at maximum output.

The 'solutions' are all either unpalatable or unrealistic.

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Price gouging?

The masters of that must be the local chemist. Compare the prices of items available elsewhere to what the chemists charge. And I'm sure those other retailers are not selling at a loss

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They're charging for the locality and convenience.  

 

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Not sure I see the convenience in paying more when I can walk 200m and get it cheaper at the supermarket

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i had my prescriptions done at a local chemist and bought the odd other item for convenience. It was at the time the big warehouse styled pharmacies established themselves in NP. I asked the local chemist, the owner who is a pharmacist, some technical info on an emollient. Didn't have the answer there and then and he said he'd get back to me. About a week later i checked in again and he hadn't got the info. Gave him another week and still no answer. About the same time there was an article in the local rag with this pharmacist complaining about the warehouse styled chemists. Needless to say I stopped using his pharmacy and patronised one of the warehouse styled pharmacies.

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"other retailers are not selling at a loss" 

Preferential treatment by wholesalers. 

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Really it is all a big distraction from the fact that real incomes aren't rising. If we had more income, the cost side of things would be less visible. Unfortunately, no party has a solution to this real underlying issue

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The housing merry go round has stopped and we have to earn income from not flipping houses or feeling rich because the value went up.

A painful but necessary adjustment.

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Not sure about where everyone else is around the country, but I have noticed a marked uptick in people building and starting food carts around Nelson bay. Seems a cheap-ish way to start a business, and with hospitality the way it is, it can benefit to be mobile to go to events etc.

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Improving wages need to be underpinned by improving per capita productivity. 

That's just not happening and none of the parties have got any meaningful strategies or policy. 

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Spot on.  I am not sure of Kiwi data, but in the UK real GDP per capita increased by circa 25% every decade (70s, 80s, 90s), and since 2008 it is up by......8%.  It underlies many of the UK's problems.

No answers to that from politicians.  Outsourcing the entire manufacturing sector and replacing it with low value service jobs did not help.  

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in the UK real GDP per capita increased by circa 25% every decade (70s, 80s, 90s)

Coinciding with the coming of working age and careers of the bulging baby boomer generation and the rise in women working also. Many opportunities were to be had. Advancement of so many technologies. One thing I do think does get overlooked is that we can add the spouse to the workforce to near double it, but this cannot ever be replicated again and thus, the reliance on past data does come into question as to how heavily we weight it relative to today. 

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