The latest and last 1News Verian Poll ahead of Saturday's election sees National and Labour almost neck and neck, while the Greens have risen to 16% and both ACT and NZ First drop by 2 percentage points.
With advanced and overseas voting already open, National sat on 30%, Labour on 29%, ACT was on 10% and NZ First on 8%.
Opportunity remained steady on 6%.
National - 30% (up 1 percentage point)
Labour - 29% (up 2 percentage points)
The Green Party - 16% (up 1 percentage point)
ACT - 10% (down 2 percentage points)
NZ First - 8% (down 2 percentage points)
Opportunity - 6% (steady)
Te Pāti Māori - 0.4%
Nine percent either did not know or refused to answer.
Translated to seats, in one scenario the poll assumes Te Pāti Māori wins four electorate seats and Te Tai Tokerau Party wins one seat, causing a five seat overhang. That pushes the Parliament seat total up to 125.
The coalition bloc of National (on 36), ACT (12) and NZ First (10) would have 58 seats.
Labour (35), the Greens (20) and Opportunity (7) would have 62 seats, just shy of the 63 needed to take power, so would need to rely on Te Pāti Māori.
In another scenario where Te Pāti Māori wins only one seat (causing just a one seat overhang to 121) and Te Tai Tokerau Party does not win a seat, Labour, the Greens and Opportunity would still have enough to take power.
You can read more about vote splitting and seat overhang here.
The poll was conducted between October 29 - November 2 with 1006 voters via mobile and online panels.
It follows the most recent RNZ Reid Research Poll, which saw National dip down to 24.8%, while Labour remained steady on 30.6%.
National - 24.8%
Labour - 30.6%
The Green Party - 14.5%
ACT - 10.1%
NZ First - 9.9%
Opportunity - 7.2%
Te Pāti Māori - 1.9%
The poll was conducted between October 20 - 26 via online panels.
While most parties stayed relatively steady, Opportunity rose 1.7 percentage points, up to 7.2%, from 5%. ACT rose up ahead of NZ First, rising 1.1 percentage points to 10.1%, while NZ First dropped 0.7% percentage points to 9.9%.
There was 3.3% who were undecided or were not voting, compared to 1News' 11% of voters who did not know or refused to say.
Translated to seats, the poll predicted that Labour's (37) seats, the Greens' seats (18) and Opportunity's seats (9), would give them 64, which would be enough to govern. The coalition of National (30), NZ First (12) and ACT (12) would have 54, which would not be enough to retain power.
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