A new poll indicates this election could be on a knife edge, while Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong hits out at "absolutely disgusting" comments directed at one of her candidates by NZ First candidate Michael Laws.
Poll countdown
The October Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll serves up a hung Parliament between the left and right blocs, as advanced voting is well underway in the lead-up to Saturday's election.
National - 28.9% ↑0.4 (compared to October's poll)
Labour - 28.4% ↑0.2
Green - 14.4% ↑1.1
ACT - 10.5% ↑1.3
NZ First - 9.8% ↓2.2
Opportunity - 5.8% ↑1.0
Te Pāti Māori - 1.1% ↓0.3
Other - 1.1% ↓1.6
National and Labour had only a 0.5 percentage point difference, with National just ahead on 28.9% and Labour on 28.4%. Tuesday night's 1News poll had just a 1 percentage point difference between the parties.
Translated to seats, National (35), ACT (13) and NZ First (12) would have 60, while Labour (34), Greens (18), Opportunity (7) and TPM (1) would also have 60. Sixty-one seats would be needed to form a government in a Parliament of that form.
However the seat combination does not assume any overhang. You can read more about vote splitting and seat overhang here.
The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3, with 700 by phone and 300 by online panel.
Qiulae Wong calls Michael Laws' comments 'absolutely disgusting'
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong said comments from Michael Laws regarding one of her candidates "makes my skin crawl".
NZ First candidate Michael Laws on The Platform last month described Opportunity candidate Kayla Kingdon-Bebb as "every officious primary school teacher, female that I'd ever come across in my life".
"Must be hell dating people like that, just quietly. Can you imagine what it's like post-sex? Did I say that out loud? Yes, I did," he said.
"It's absolutely disgusting... I don't think someone like that should be standing as a candidate. They don't belong in politics.
"I think Michael Laws needs to stand down as a candidate. I would expect the leader Winston Peters to take action on that swiftly."
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon described the comments as "stupid", ruling him out of any of his Cabinets.
National deputy Nicola Willis said Laws should go back to Noah and the Ark.
"My party does not stand for sexism."
Unemployment
Responding to the rise of unemployment to 5.7% in the September quarter, Willis said it reflected "ongoing uncertainty in the New Zealand economy".
"Obviously, we can't control international oil prices. We can control what goes on here at home, and it really reinforces for me how important it is to give businesses the confidence they need to hire more New Zealanders.
"That confidence starts with stable tax settings, sensible regulatory reforms like fast track and ensuring we're managing the books well."
Labour economy spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said National "chose cuts over investment, cancelled projects and left businesses to fend for themselves".
"The result is fewer jobs, less opportunity and more families under pressure."
Previous polls
The last 1News Verian Poll ahead of Saturday's election sees National and Labour almost neck and neck, while the Greens have risen to 16% and both ACT and NZ First drop by 2 percentage points.
With advanced and overseas voting already open, National sat on 30%, Labour on 29%, ACT on 10% and NZ First on 8%.
Opportunity remained steady on 6%.
National - 30% (up 1 percentage point)
Labour - 29% (up 2 percentage points)
The Green Party - 16% (up 1 percentage point)
ACT - 10% (down 2 percentage points)
NZ First - 8% (down 2 percentage points)
Opportunity - 6% (steady)
Te Pāti Māori - 0.4%
Nine percent either did not know or refused to answer.
Translated to seats, in one scenario the poll assumes Te Pāti Māori wins four electorate seats and Te Tai Tokerau Party wins one-seat, causing a five-seat overhang. That pushes the Parliament seat total up to 125.
The coalition bloc of National (on 36), ACT (12) and NZ First (10) would have 58 seats.
Labour (35), the Greens (20) and Opportunity (7) would have 62 seats, just shy of the 63 needed to take power, so would need to rely on Te Pāti Māori.
In another scenario where Te Pāti Māori wins only one seat (causing just a one seat overhang to 121) and Te Tai Tokerau Party does not win a seat, Labour, the Greens and Opportunity would still have enough to take power.
The poll was conducted between October 29 and November 2 with 1006 voters via mobile and online panels.
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