Wholesale swap rates shift up strongly

Bonds / analysis

The economic data seems to point clearly to higher policy rates soon, and financial markets are pricing them in. Home loan and TD rates are primed to follow

28th Jan 22, 9:19am by David Chaston

Following some clear signals, wholesale swap rates rose sharply yesterday (Thursday).

First, the US Fed removed almost all doubt that would be ending bond buying and hiking the benchmark rates in March.

And the NZ CPI came in above expectations, confirming inflation is enemy #1 for the RBNZ. No one now thinks the February 2 labour market data will show anything other than that part of their policy mandate has been satisfied.

So all is clear for the RBNZ to raise their policy rate again on February 23.

Financial markets are convinced.

Bond yields rose worldwide with the Fed signal.

Wholesale swap rates rose locally with the CPI signal.

The rise was +5 bps to +7 bps in the 1 to 3 year tenors - from the prior day when they rose as well.

That takes the one year swap rate to 2.00% and +35 bps higher than when the home loan market wound down for the holiday break in mid-December.

The two year swap is now at 2.49% and up +25 bps over the same time frame. The three year is now at 2.70% and +20 bps higher. But the two and three year swap rates are really only back to where they were in late November, which was when the current two and three year mortgage rates were established.

The last time there was any mortgage rate rise in the market was in the week of November 26, 2021.

Prepare for a general rise in fixed rates, probably before the RBNZ's February 23 MPS review. The most vulnerable rate rise is for a one year fixed home loan. At this stage the two year and three year rates are less vulnerable until rates rise further from here. (But ASB's two year 4.15% rate which is -20 bps lower than their main rivals might be an early casualty.)

Financial markets are pricing in higher rates.

Who will be first to move up?

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA

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112 Comments

by taimaiakka0 | 28th Jan 22, 9:31am 1643315481

Check this out : Fed Has Misinterpreted Inflation, Lacker Says

https://youtu.be/VQaOS_SYbWA

Saying misinterpret is being polite. Should be manipulated as most governor of reserve banks have inflated ego and in process screw the economy - long term.

Pandemic came and will go in a year or two but scar left by this governor's will be felt for years to come, impacting lives of many.

They should be held responsible, just like surgeon doing surgery - no real accountability and politics allows them to get away.

by RickStrauss | 28th Jan 22, 11:13am 1643321585

Who is going to hold them responsible or undo any of what they have done? No one.

If National are voted in they are a party of property investors who benefited from the last two years' welfare wealth transfers. All that will happen is continuation.

We'll need other parties and voices to stand up against the two Natbour parties on such issues.

by taimaiakka0 | 28th Jan 22, 11:24am 1643322278

Birds of a feather flock together....POLITICIANS.

by company of heroes | 28th Jan 22, 9:42am 1643316142

ANZ? As most time they are the first one to move up the rates? Also they are the biggest bank here in New Zealand. Guess they'll have more cost to cover?

by Smudge02 | 28th Jan 22, 9:45am 1643316318

I find it alarming that there is any sort of 'surprise' in any of this. A global pandemic hits and emergency financial decisions were made to prevent economic harm, recession etc (some pretty poor financial decisions but thats another conversation). So things are now going back the other way (admittedly quickly because we over cooked it) and people are panicking?

If you accumulated vast amounts of debt at 2.5% thinking that rates were going to stay that low for any amount of time and you can't support that debt even if we move to what would be considered a more 'normal' rate of 5 or 6% then you will just have to deal with it. Too many people have made stupid financial decisions in recent years on a whim or FOMO and there may well be some consequences coming.

by Averageman | 28th Jan 22, 10:06am 1643317575

Agreed. The only surprise is how long its taken central banks to look like they will start to act responsibly. We should be deaf to those that have gone all in for their own greed.

by RickStrauss | 28th Jan 22, 11:15am 1643321725

The question is whether free market risk and price discovery will be allowed this time around? Last time around the RBNZ outright stated their worst case scenario is house prices falling, before removing LVR limits and pumping the market.

Will they allow free market risk to apply next time? Or will it be considered another emergency that requires rescue?

by Officebound | 29th Jan 22, 7:45am 1643395502

"Last time around the RBNZ outright stated their worst case scenario is house prices falling"

No they didn't.

by Notgreedykiwi | 28th Jan 22, 9:49am 1643316567

my prediction is 6% one year home loan rate by March 2022. Let's see how many million+ dollar house sales by mid this year.

Greed is never good but majority humans are not part of the intelligent species. Darvin did say survival of the fittest.

by WhiskeyJack | 28th Jan 22, 10:00am 1643317217

Could be an extra $200-350pw on the mortgage payment if that happened. Which is gonna be pretty helpful if everyone is sick at home with the plague.

by company of heroes | 28th Jan 22, 10:08am 1643317735

But if OCR is not hiked to where it should be, there could be an extra $200-350pw on cost of living for everyone anyway due to inflation, potentially the retail interest rates go up more too, which one is gonna be more helpful if everyone is sick at home with the plague?

by rastus1 | 28th Jan 22, 10:17am 1643318259

That's a point that most miss.

Putting up interest just shifts the cost to where it should be - to those that borrowed (often for greed) Not putting up rates means the burden falls on those who have not borrowed to the eye balls (the frugal and non asset owners).

We have subsidised the housing ponzi over all else for too long. It's time the borrowers paid the piper - and not the rest of us.

by Smudge02 | 28th Jan 22, 10:28am 1643318893

Boom 🤯👍

by Notgreedykiwi | 28th Jan 22, 10:28am 1643318914

What most people are missing is that intelligent ones paid off more during the times of low interest rates and now have more freedom to live their life and can spend more. The Darvin's dumb went down the FOMO lane and bought more debt for themselves and that lot is a very small number compared to those who paid off more to make their life simpler.

So higher interest rates will help majority of the people because they won't be putting more money in their non moveable asset but more into economy and probably enjoy life too.

Hence leave your scare mongering behind and most balanced interest rates for any growing economy is between 6-8% and that is where we will be.

by refactornz | 28th Jan 22, 10:35am 1643319343

Yes, that's why people in Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Turkey are enjoying such high standards of living at the moment.

by Solid_Granite | 28th Jan 22, 6:18pm 1643347128

I don't buy that. If most people were sensible and focused on paid off their debt over these past 10 or so years, we wouldn't have ended up with such massive house prices.

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 10:07am 1643317627

Could indeed happen. Our economy will be toast if it does, especially the house building sector.

Selling a 2 bedroom shoebox for 600k at 3% interest rate, two years ago, is one thing. Trying to sell the same shoeboxes for 800k- 850k at 6% (or even 5% for that matter) is quite another....just get your mortgage calculator out to see!

No wonder the clever people have escaped the RBNZ! It ain't gonna be pretty.

by jeremyr | 28th Jan 22, 11:06am 1643321205

You could very well be right, but I suspect it will go higher.

I get on very well with my mortgage manager at the bank.

I wanted to purchase a holiday home late last year, and he advised against it (but did approve the money regardless). I didn't go ahead with it in the end.

My mortgage manager told me he also wanted to purchase a holiday home, but he would wait until higher interested rates really really burned people and he would pick up one later when they are much cheaper. He said interested rates would go up sharply in the new year, and expected it to happen quickly.

I fixed all borrowing on the low 3s, for 5 years prior to this conversation as I could see what was about to happen anyway.

It is going to be very tough going for many this year (and next also) that thought this cheap credit party would last forever. Interest rates 7-10% would be my pick at peak.

by iwantit2 | 28th Jan 22, 11:17am 1643321859

I could pick 7 to 8% for longer term interest rates but not for 1 year rates. If that does happen, then yes as mentioned above the economy is toast and we will be in a Recession before anyone knew what him them and create absolute carnage that no one will be safe from. I would also think personal lending would be very hard to obtain especially if we are falling to pieces.

It would be interesting to see how we will compare to the rest of the world over the year, will they inevitably follow similar path to NZ or will they be able to avoid high interest rates and possible recession etc.

by linklater01 | 28th Jan 22, 11:58am 1643324282

Ngk,

"Darvin did say survival of the fittest". A hitherto unknown cousin of Darwin perhaps?

by Ebisu | 28th Jan 22, 5:04pm 1643342652

Darvin is a cousin of Darvin Vader - a heavy breather - not fit enough for Darwin’s world.

by Nifty1 | 28th Jan 22, 12:07pm 1643324834

my prediction is 6% one year home loan rate by March 2022. Let's see how many million+ dollar house sales by mid this year.

LOL abit extreme there...

by ShoreThing | 28th Jan 22, 4:29pm 1643340587

Extreme? Last time inflation was above 5% the OCR was 8% and home loan rates above that. 6% home loan rates are very possible.

by Lanthanide | 28th Jan 22, 4:42pm 1643341324

The rate itself is not extreme. The time frame is. They said 6% 1 year rate by March 2022. That's 5 weeks away. Current rates are ~3.5%

by WhiskeyJack | 28th Jan 22, 9:55am 1643316953

Raising interest rates just as the plague arrives in NZ seems like a smart move. Why did they need to lower them in the first place?

by Smudge02 | 28th Jan 22, 4:39pm 1643341187

So it was a bit like saving up for a rainy day, the forecast said rain was coming so we cracked into the 'rainy day fund' and had a big spend up but the rain didn't come? Now it seems we actually do have some rather heavy rain coming our way but no more $$$. Moral of the story, don't assume just because someone holds a position of power that they have any idea what the hell they are doing.

by pete johns | 28th Jan 22, 1:13pm 1643328832

Smudge . lovin your comments . our leaders are no better than you or me & have no moral compass , they should be ashamed the damage they have done to our great country....its all about the votes..

by Miguel | 28th Jan 22, 10:36am 1643319402

Lowering rates wouldn't have been a disaster if they had retained (or raised) LVR limits, and ensured DTI limits were in place. This would have meant people with existing debts would have had reduced servicing costs at a highly stressful time, but would have stopped people taking on new debt at rates that were always going to be temporary.

Sad part is, that wasn't the intention. The intention was to create as much new debt as possible, to "boost" the economy. Short sighted with no regard to those who will be most heavily impacted (new first home buyers). It was a short term panic fix, as the RBNZ know they have created a highly unstable financial bubble - they think "financial stability" consists of ensuring it doesn't blow up in their face immediately, rather than ensuring we have a completely stable and resilient financial system able to withstand financial shocks.

by Averageman | 28th Jan 22, 10:08am 1643317700

Good article DC, I agree logic dictates a lift in rates and quickly. That said I have thought that for a while and the Fed and RBNZ have just double/tripled down on ever cheaper debt inflating an ever greater bubble. I have lost confidence in their ability to act logically.

Using this bubble graphic http://static.businessinsider.com/image/515dc7c669bedd430400000a, I suggest we are still somewhere between the "delusion and denial" phases. Many are very worn out/delusional at the market, and all the bulls are in complete denial thinking the fiscal mismanagement of the last ten years must continue because the bubble is too big to fail.

Lets speculate for a moment the Fed actually acts normally and leads central banks into a extended period where interest rates again exceed inflation (the long term norm). Aussie and NZ will have to follow. What does 7-8% interest rates (again the long term average) do to the piles of debt dumped in assets?

The changes in the US equity markets this year is a hint. They went straight to the "fear" phase of the bubble model, also know as FONGO. As stated yesterday shares can be exited in minutes, housing is quite different.

by taimaiakka0 | 28th Jan 22, 10:05am 1643317540

Survival of the fittest is true but just like drug peddlers deserve strict punishment for promoting so does........

It was evident last year that greed under FOMO was at peak and instead of addressing it, went all out to promote......

In a crisis, should have supported existing debt instead of promoting new in crisis, unless they had taken upon themselves to print and serve for ever.

Basic thinking was wrong. IN CRISIS NEED WAS TO SUPPORT EXISTING DEBT INSTEAD OF PROMOTING NEW CHEAP TO ONE AND ALL KNOWING THAT FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN.

Pandemic was a natural crisis ( if we rule out China theory) BUT economy crisis has been created by .....

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 10:09am 1643317791

They are hesitant because of the carnage they know lifting rates will cause. Housing market, housing construction, shares will all be whacked with sustained and aggressive lifting of the OCR.

They are faced with a WICKED PROBLEM.

by Brock Landers | 28th Jan 22, 10:31am 1643319067

The slumlords and specufestors have gone remarkably quiet recently.

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 10:11am 1643317892

Mate, let's see how chirpy they will be in 6 to 9 months.

We can all look forward to rubbing it in.

DON'T BE QUICK.

by Carlos67 | 28th Jan 22, 11:31am 1643322661

With respect HM your the No1 guy on here saying rates will not and can not rise. Its now pretty clear that regardless of the factors that are right in front of you, the bigger picture that most are not looking at require rates to start climbing. Rates should have started returning to preCovid levels a year ago and we wouldn't be in such a mess now. Its a total cock up, people have got themselves in debt up to the eyeballs thinking these low rates were here to stay.

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 11:45am 1643323518

And yet you don't see house prices crashing???

Curious position.

by refactornz | 28th Jan 22, 12:39pm 1643326754

Because wages are going up too, especially in high level jobs.

by Halfway To Paradise | 28th Jan 22, 3:37pm 1643337450

Just wait until the minimum wage is pumped up because of inflation, and vote grabbing.

by Carlos67 | 28th Jan 22, 4:05pm 1643339122

How can house prices crash when the cost of building one keeps increasing ? Wages are going to have to climb, building materials have already gone through the roof. We will be lucky if the rises stay in single digits.

by jeremyr | 28th Jan 22, 7:27pm 1643351247

It doesn’t cost that much to build a house if you are smart about it.

I built one, but not the crap that people Build in Nz where the design and quality is an embarrassment.

It’s a large home, 320sqm with top of the line fit out, all rimu, tiles, all the mod cons, but the expensive stuff I imported from all over the world, and did a lot of work myself (while still doing a full time job).

in the end it cost 750k to build, but it’s insured for 1.5 million, because to build it and pay the local prices for all the materials cost that much.

the secret is just to bypass all the moronic local suppliers of building materials in this shithole country and just import stuff from elsewhere.

I had never done it before, but it was actually really easy to procure all the stuff, have it delivered and the employ really good builders to do the actual work. I was importing high quality stuff for 15% of the cost of the same products here.

It was easy.

by Sam B | 28th Jan 22, 11:53am 1643323990

Yeah. I've shifted from HM's thinking (they can't raise rates, the bubble is our economy) to thinking they'll have to raise rates. Inflation is real. And the NZD will continue to weaken against the USD, making tradeables more expensive. Look at the global risk-off mood; always bad news for the NZD... on top of which we have an economy that is dependent on low interest rates in a global rates-up environment. It'll be a choice between saving the housing market and saving the dollar. They'll sacrifice the NZD to save housing to an extent, but I think the NZD will be dunked a lot harder than anyone is predicting at the moment and force them to raise more aggressively.

by pete johns | 28th Jan 22, 1:20pm 1643329238

Sam B . nailed it ....NZD has to be saved before anything else ....other wise its good nite nurse....

by Essen | 28th Jan 22, 1:44pm 1643330679

My understanding of HM's thinking is that they will raise rates, but not as much as the market thinks they will. In other words, the house of cards will fall over as quickly as it was built.

by StuckAtHome | 28th Jan 22, 1:48pm 1643330884

NZD goes down, tradeable inflation goes up (which the NZRB conveniently 'looks-through'), non-tradeable inflation trends back down (due to reduced domestic demand), price base re-set and transfer of wealth from poor to rich is complete. Job done!

by RickStrauss | 28th Jan 22, 2:23pm 1643333011

And then demand for gated subdivisions rises as the poor decide it's fair and reasonable to take back some of what was taken from them without their permission. "What's the difference?" they ask.

by Merrydaze | 28th Jan 22, 2:16pm 1643332580

Sam B, I get your thinking but you also have to remember NZ is an export driven economy. Lower dollar means more profits for exporters which flows into the economy and increases tax revenue for government. Will be interesting to see which way we go.

by VTHO | 28th Jan 22, 10:37am 1643319456

There is still time. BE QUICK.

For what exactly, I don't know :D

by Oasis | 28th Jan 22, 11:05am 1643321133

They are in damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t situation aren’t they? Over-leveraged investors can’t sell their newly acquired investment properties without paying a huge tax bill (because of brightline test) but they are also nervous about impending market crash?

by RickStrauss | 28th Jan 22, 11:19am 1643321976

Bright Line Test only takes a percentage of the profit made. So they're in no way hard done by if they're still making money, they're just being forced to their chagrin to contribute to society's funding just as working folk do.

by refactornz | 28th Jan 22, 12:45pm 1643327143

True that it's just a percentage of the profit. But if e.g. they're sitting on a 30% gain and are in the 39% tax bracket then selling now and paying BL tax would be equivalent to selling later for 9% lower price and no BL tax. Add in commissions and it's more like 11-12%. Do they think that prices will drop by more than 11-12%, that's the question.

by Smudge02 | 28th Jan 22, 11:33am 1643322788

Over leveraged investors didn't give a toss about anyone but themselves when the $$$ were flowing like water so we should return the favour when the drought hits.

by fortunr | 28th Jan 22, 11:06am 1643321214

BE QUICK - to sell.

by taimaiakka0 | 28th Jan 22, 11:27am 1643322462

Well many have already made a fortune except new entrants in last one year.

by MortgageBelt | 28th Jan 22, 10:11am 1643317875

Well, I’m dropping from a fixed 2.2% rate to floating next week. And will stay floating as I believe a hiking path will be unsustainable over the medium term.

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 10:12am 1643317931

I totally agree.

by MisterB | 28th Jan 22, 10:24am 1643318651

That's quite a premium over say the 1 year rate even now.

by realterms | 28th Jan 22, 10:43am 1643319792

Yeah I'd struggle to come up with a scenario where variable makes more sense than a short term fix, even with the view that hiking is unsustainable. The variable rates are just punitive.

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 11:05am 1643321104

yeah, if you are coming off your term now, AND think high interest rates are unsustainable (as I do, a minority view), then you might fix for one year, then look to rates coming down by this time next near and re-fixing again.

I come off one year in late November, I will monitor things and keep an open mind but I expect to float for a few months before fixing again in February / March next year once rates are lower again.

But a lot could change by November, so staying flexible and open minded is key.

by linklater01 | 28th Jan 22, 12:07pm 1643324827

HM,

You are not entirely alone. With no debt and lots of cash, I should welcome much higher rates and they will certainly go higher. A 2% OCR will not surprise me, but I think that in 5 years, rates will be falling again.

All my TDs are very short-term to take advantage of increasing rates, but at some point, I expect to shift to longer terms.

by pete johns | 28th Jan 22, 1:26pm 1643329607

HM , you are a gambler , betcha in 12 months rates will be closer to 6% than 3%...all about inflation & saving our $...wish ya luck..

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 4:23pm 1643340210

You might be right, don't worry I'll be OK :)

But the NZ economy and housing market sure as hell won't be!!!

by mfd | 28th Jan 22, 11:13am 1643321585

I'm expecting to go floating in March, waiting for a sale to go through overseas to pay off a chunk of mortgage so I think floating gives me the most flexibility (unless anyone has a better suggestion?)

by MortgageBelt | 28th Jan 22, 12:22pm 1643325726

True, quite a premium, MrB, but with a small mortgage it’s not really a big issue.

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 10:37am 1643319426

If I am wrong, and the RBNZ hikes repeatedly and aggressively to say 2% by August/September, then I can't see any other reality to the economy getting whacked. Now, that might help inflation quite a lot, but it will obviously come with a lot of economic pain.

That's why, under this scenario, which most people seem to think will happen, the RBNZ will actually need to start cutting the OCR by year's end or early next year, to try and resuscitate the economy.

A marked recession will kill inflation.

by Husaria | 28th Jan 22, 10:56am 1643320575

It is entirely rational to have that expectation. Since the early 2000s we've been conditioned to expect a rescue from the central banks every time the markets and the economy (because of its high degree of financialization) stumble. The Greenspan put was followed by the Bernanke put was followed by the Yellen put and finally the Powell put. The key question is, will the central banks run to the rescue again? In NZ, would a major housing downturn bring inflation to within 2% (what about imported inflation?) enabling RBNZ to cut rates. Would a housing-driven recession in NZ kill inflation imported from overseas? Would RBNZ depart from the tightening path followed by the FED? I don't know...

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 11:07am 1643321245

Good points / questions.

But maybe the FED have to reverse their tightening path for the same reasons?

Although, I think our economy is much more vulnerable to tightening than the US economy...

by RickStrauss | 28th Jan 22, 11:21am 1643322074

If they have to choose between poor people losing the value of their wages and savings vs. the wealthy losing value in their investment portfolios, history suggests they'll chose the former.

by Husaria | 28th Jan 22, 11:38am 1643323084

Good point. I guess you're referring to the 1980's. The central banks were not faced with the choice of battling high inflation vs protecting asset prices since the late 1990s. Essentially because inflation was so low. Now inflation is no longer low.

by Averageman | 28th Jan 22, 11:39am 1643323145

It is the Labour party, so you would think that decision would be a no brainer. The real question is does the Labour MP's have enough have enough rentals to make them abandon the socialist part of "chardonnay socialist"?

by RickStrauss | 28th Jan 22, 2:26pm 1643333167

Doesn't seem like Labour is actually left-leaning at all. Natbour are so close together, how does one tell? A slight preference for public transport vs. private car travel?

Labour chose the wealthy over the last 2 years.

by Brock Landers | 28th Jan 22, 10:56am 1643320613

We dont have inflation. We have stagflation.

by ikimpaul | 28th Jan 22, 11:46am 1643323615

absolutely agree - stagflation defined as a stagnating economy whilst inflation is considered to be considered high or out of control.

Given the economy is definitely starting to stagnate and will continue to under the red light traffic system - and we have the highest inflation in 30 years - it will get worse before it gets better.

by camnz | 28th Jan 22, 10:38am 1643319509

I went fixed for 2 years at 4.15% and paying extra.

Gives me some certainty as there is plenty of uncertainty out there at the moment.

by Brutus Iscariot | 28th Jan 22, 10:27am 1643318848

Swaps are down this morning. Fake-out yesterday. Markets wising up that growth and inflation have peaked.

by realterms | 28th Jan 22, 10:44am 1643319854

Will be very interesting to see where they go over the next few days.

by Jonny_Utah | 28th Jan 22, 10:47am 1643320047

And so it begins!

by Carlos67 | 28th Jan 22, 11:36am 1643322984

Yes and the smart people should have been smashing their mortgage over the last few years but I'm really shocked at the numbers on interest only. There is every indication now that rates will return to historical averages and people that couldn't be bothered to start paying down the principal on their million dollar house are going to get smashed.

by Miguel | 28th Jan 22, 1:19pm 1643329164

The interest only loans are the scariest to me as well.

I had a conversation with a colleague last year, after they purchased their first house. They were talking about the fact they bought it on interest only terms, and they explained "we couldn't really afford it, but we felt like if we don't buy now we will miss our chance forever."

Scary as shit if this is more than just a 1 off anecdote. I know everyone will claim "Banks stress test at X%", yet the CCCFA rules have shown banks stress test based on claimed expenses, not actual expenses.

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 1:27pm 1643329622

Interest-only loans are dodgy. And they are predicated entirely on the view that house prices will only ever keep going up.

by Jonny_Utah | 28th Jan 22, 2:28pm 1643333310

I paid my mortgage off last year.

was less satisfying than you might think. Invested in a brand new car lol at a 1.9% interest rate.

by Carlos67 | 28th Jan 22, 4:13pm 1643339584

That because the satisfying part after paying off your mortgage is no longer having to work for dick heads. You can then do what you always wanted to do, i.e not work or do some charity work when you suddenly don't have to find $800 a week for a mortgage.

by fortunr | 28th Jan 22, 11:17am 1643321838

The big rates normalization event has just started. Be ready for significantly higher interest rates, with further surprises on the upside.

This is structural, and it is going to be a medium term phenomenon, not just a short term event - central banks have over-expanded the money supply, kept an over-loose monetary policy for too long, and now for the next few years at least we will see higher interest rates, as inflation is appearing again, as a natural consequence of past policies.

Hoping that interest rates will come down again in the short-medium term is pure wishful thinking not supported by the facts and in clear contradiction to what swap markets are clearly indicating.

Specufestors and mortgage holders are in for significant pain, that's for sure. They will bear the brunt and pay much of the price for the necessary rebalancing of the economy that is going to happen in the next few years.

by Carlos67 | 28th Jan 22, 11:44am 1643323493

100% agree. Those that are overleveraged and overextended are going to have to bail out of the market. The thing is I still don't see a housing crash with costs rising across the board, in fact I still expect single digit house price increases for 2022. There will be some serious lifestyle adjustments for those who want to stay in the game. Its not impossible to do at one point 80% of my take home pay was going towards a mortgage, you just have to suck it up for a few years. Short term pain was most defiantly long term gain.

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 11:53am 1643324017

Your opinion is one I see serious holes in.

Apparently, you don't think aggressive hiking of the OCR will lead to a recession and significant increases in unemployment?

Because a recession and much higher unemployment would force a significant number of people to sell property, whether it's their own home or an investment property.

Then who is going to buy?

So I see two scenarios:

1. Small increases to the OCR, to say 1.75 maximum, and moderate drops in house prices (5-10%) - this is my forecast

2. Large increases to the OCR, to say 2.5% plus, recession and higher unemployment, house price drops of 25-30%.

You seem to go with scenario 2, but with house price increases?

Please explain.

by Sam B | 28th Jan 22, 12:07pm 1643324822

I'm not the OP, but I can see this happening. I would expect large OCR hikes to cause recession, but that doesn't have to mean big price falls.

Both NZ culture and banks will encourage mortgage-holders to eat a lot of s**t before selling at a loss or forcing foreclosure. People who have bought $1m townhouses in Greenhithe will hit the foodbanks and drive Uber after hours before abandoning the dream. We're collectively stupid and stubborn enough to maintain insane house prices at the price of widespread middle-class poverty. So look for a big increase in foodbank use, benefit fraud, tax evasion, fraud in general, a lowering in the cost of sex workers, and collapse of the hospitality industry... rather than drastically lower house prices.

I'm torn between this scenario and the one where the market rationally reprices property. <shrug>

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 12:22pm 1643325735

Thanks for your opinion. I don't agree with it though :) There will be many people with their own homes or investments who will still be well ahead of the purchase price even if they sell 30% lower than current market peak.

I also think once the problems start, there will be a downwards spiral that is very hard to stop - unless the RBNZ cuts the OCR!!!! (that's why I think the ultimate outcome will be the OCR increases being reversed, late this year / early next year, with the chances of that happening greater if they hike above 2% by August)

by Brock Landers | 28th Jan 22, 12:25pm 1643325932

Are the costs of sex workers included in CPI calculations?

by Sam B | 28th Jan 22, 12:37pm 1643326643

As I understand it, the CPI covers the cost of postage stamps, penny farthing wheels and boot-polish services. That's why it captures the lived experience of inflation so well.

by RickStrauss | 28th Jan 22, 2:27pm 1643333225

I'm not sure we delineate to quite that level the different ways through which we screw the younger generations.

by Carlos67 | 28th Jan 22, 4:22pm 1643340172

The penny finally dropped for me in September 2020.....The is no "Logic" in the housing market and once you understand that you realise it simply doesn't react as you would expect. Housing is the Kiwi obsession, every single thing will get eliminated in order to keep the house. Discretionary spending will crash so sure its going to be really bad for cafes and restaurants. People will simply have to pull their heads in and stop spending in order to hold onto the house.

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 4:33pm 1643340807

Fair enough, I don't agree. This time is different, in my opinion. There's no get out of jail card this time.

Either the OCR is not raised so much, and there is damage limitation to the economy and the housing market but inflation is only tamed a bit (my opinion) OR

The OCR is raised a lot, inflation is tamed but there is carnage in the housing market and economy.

If I am wrong and you are right - the OCR is raised a lot and house prices rise let alone fall - I will join you in agreeing there is absolutely no logic whatsoever in the market.

by Carlos67 | 29th Jan 22, 6:55am 1643392555

Lets see how it pans out HM. I see rates going up through 2022 but the pain will not show until 2023. The reason for this is the huge percentages of mortgage renewals falling this year and the brakes on spending will roll into next year when the emergency savings is gone and the credit card bills start rolling in. Its very hard to cut spending and some peoples idea of "Must Haves" in life are truly eye watering.

by Nzdano | 29th Jan 22, 12:44pm 1643413465

I tend to agree, I suspect momentum in the economy will keep this year positive, but pressure will come on 2023,2024

by GV 27 | 28th Jan 22, 1:46pm 1643330761

"Its not impossible to do at one point 80% of my take home pay was going towards a mortgage"

Some of us have this weird thing about eating, or living in a house with power.

The fact you could cover the basics with your remaining 20% seems lost on you.

by pete johns | 28th Jan 22, 1:31pm 1643329898

fortunr . you nailed it again , all ways on the money , some commenters should take notes..

by Sam B | 28th Jan 22, 11:58am 1643324310

2022:

-RB forced to return to dovishness by housing market softness?

-RB forced to raise rates beyond the current schedule by inflation?

-RB keeps to schedule, no major dramas?

I wish this comment section could do polls. More specifically, I'd like to get votes from the commentariat here and see how opinion fared vs reality at the end of the year.

by CWBW | 28th Jan 22, 1:34pm 1643330099

This is a good incentive and motivation for a rent increase.

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 1:40pm 1643330426

Did you just see the stats? Average rents increased by less than 3% last year.

by CWBW | 28th Jan 22, 1:46pm 1643330760

How does last year's numbers project this year's?

by HouseMouse | 28th Jan 22, 2:10pm 1643332240

It perhaps shows that despite a lot of hot air about increasing rents, landlords perhaps have limited ability to do so.

With young kiwis likely to depart for Aus, with unemployment likely to rise and see young ones return home, and with tonnes of housing supply being delivered landlords might think very carefully about rental increases.

Be careful!!!

by CWBW | 28th Jan 22, 2:37pm 1643333831

Kiwis come and go, unemployment rates went up and down but for the last 18 years, the compounded annual rental growth rate in the country is about 5%.

I don't see any strong reasons why the long term trend will change anytime soon.

by Miguel | 28th Jan 22, 2:25pm 1643333119

Auckland has stagnant population, and the highest levels of construction ever seen. Take a look at what is happening in CBD rents for a sign of things to come if both these things continue.

by CWBW | 28th Jan 22, 2:41pm 1643334106

The population in this country is not stagnant.

COVID and its lock-downs hit central cities the hardest in the any real estate markets around the world. Taking a sub-set of a market to infer the whole market is problematic. A trend is already established that as central cities are experiencing a decline, suburb and outer suburb properties are experiencing tremendous growth- and that's not unique to New Zealand.

by Nifty1 | 28th Jan 22, 2:16pm 1643332610

What would be interesting to know is what % of home loans are coming off interest only this year? What's the likely hood the banks will extend it... this is where the real trouble brews for some.

by Carinaz | 29th Jan 22, 12:35pm 1643412941

Do you mean that banks are no longer providing interest only loan, if it comes for renewal.

by Solve_it | 29th Jan 22, 10:04pm 1643447089

No they are not from anyone I've been speaking to. There may be some exceptions but if there are they are flying well under the radar.

by Nifty1 | 30th Jan 22, 10:25am 1643491507

Typically it involves a new application to assess affordability...with recent legislation changes more people may find they don't qualify.

by Toye | 28th Jan 22, 7:16pm 1643350595

There is still room for upwards valu.... sorry I can't say it with a straight face.

by JamesM | 28th Jan 22, 9:20pm 1643358014

I’ve read the above comments with interest. I agree that increasing interest rates are inevitable due to high inflation but wonder if the following should also be considered-

1. Inflation will also push up rents (and help offset mortgage rate increases for investors)

2. If increased rates result in a significant market correction the RB will drop them again.

Thoughts?

by Smudge02 | 28th Jan 22, 9:31pm 1643358665

The Reserve Banks mandate is " to create the conditions that promote full employment and maintain the purchasing power of your money into the future". Nothing in there says "Protect the housing market and ensure values are always rising".

I would think if they make a move to reduce inflation (which seems imminent) and then drop the OCR at a later time to protect the housing market with inflation still high and/or rising, that would be a pretty hard sell.

by JamesM | 28th Jan 22, 9:36pm 1643358963

What if they tank the wider economy as a result of a massive market correction?

surely then domestic inflation would ease and they would have to move to protect employment?

by Solid_Granite | 29th Jan 22, 5:19am 1643386796

I think that's why they are raising OCR so slowly. That way we get continued high inflation, and sustained market drops. Good, the worst of both worlds.

by HouseMouse | 29th Jan 22, 9:08am 1643400481

Yep, that's exactly my view and why I think they will go no higher than 1.5-1.75%.

Retail interest rates have risen a lot over the last two months, I think they will be starting to have a dampening effect on the economy and inflation which will be reflected in much lower rate of growth in the CPI at the next announcement, which will give the RBNZ the rationale to pause the hikes.