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National's Paul Goldsmith resolute NZ needs to come out of lockdown faster; Calls for targeted wage subsidy extension or cash payments to businesses; Says financial support for households will be justified after lockdown

National's Paul Goldsmith resolute NZ needs to come out of lockdown faster; Calls for targeted wage subsidy extension or cash payments to businesses; Says financial support for households will be justified after lockdown

National’s finance spokesperson, Paul Goldsmith, isn’t being deterred by the roasting his party’s leader, Simon Bridges, received this week for suggesting a faster move out of lockdown.

He’s adamant getting people back to work as soon as possible is the key to the economic recovery.

Goldsmith wants to see more corporate welfare, like a targeted extended wage subsidy or cash payments to hard hit businesses.

He also maintains financial support for households will be justified after lockdown, and isn't completely opposed to temporary benefit increases. 

Re-opening the border the goal

“We believe we should be moving as quickly as we safely can to open up the border,” Goldsmith told interest.co.nz; also criticising the Government for being too slow to close to the border in the first place.

Goldsmith pointed to the restrictiveness of Level 3, but wouldn’t explicitly say what alert level he believed the country should be at right now, or when the alert levels should change.

87% of those surveyed in a Colmar Brunton poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, after the Prime Minister announced a five-day extension of Level 4, were supportive of the Government’s response to COVID-19.

Meanwhile a Facebook post Bridges made in response to the decesion attracted 29,000 mostly critical comments. This sparked discontent National MPs to grumble to the media, again bringing Bridges’ leadership into question.

Goldsmith said people were “over-reacting”, as Bridges is “doing what everybody would expect the leader of the opposition to be doing, which is asking very basic questions about government policy”.

“I think it’s important, because there’s a lot at stake.”

Additional targeted support for business needed

Goldsmith wanted to see more corporate welfare, but said this should be targeted - possibly though an extension of the 12-week wage subsidy only for “particular groups”, or cash payments to the most hard hit businesses.

He didn’t want to see the “high trust, loose” model used to deploy the wage subsidy to date continued, saying an extension should be more “rigorous” and “focussed”.

In terms of cash payments, Goldsmith said: “Every business is different and has different requirements, so the argument for some cash payment is strong.”

He also wanted to see an Australian-like code of conduct introduced in New Zealand to make it more explicit that commercial landlords and tenants should share the pain of the crisis.

Goldsmith acknowledged it’s hard to know how many of the 1.6 million people being supported by the wage subsidy will end up losing their jobs.

“It is very difficult to know the scale of the problem. Our sense is it’s very substantial and it’s certainly made more difficult by being ultra conservative on the lockdown.”

Goldsmith said that if Finance Minister, he wouldn’t rush in to buying stakes in larger companies (as the Government is considering doing). But he wouldn’t rule this out, saying “an element of pragmatism” is required in this environment.

Support for households justified after lockdown

In terms of financial support for households, Goldsmith was “open to a broader stimulus”, but “sceptical” about helicopter money - one of the many responses the Government is considering for after the lockdown.

“There will be a time where some sort of stimulus is justified, once we’re out of lockdown and people can actually get out and spend.”

Goldsmith said there would need to be a good explanation for giving cash payments to people who haven’t had to take pay cuts and are relatively economically unscathed by the downturn.

He conceded the Government’s move to increase benefit levels by about $25 a week from April 1 was “justifiable at the time”, even though he thought it was disingenuous for it to make the permanent change under the guise of this being a response to COVID-19.

Goldsmith said any additional increases should only be temporary, noting “substantially higher” benefits would remove the incentive for people to get back into work.

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185 Comments

41
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"Goldsmith pointed to the restrictiveness of Level 3, but wouldn’t explicitly say what alert level he believed the country should be at right now, or when the alert levels should change."

Sums it up quite well.

19
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Well open your mouth and anything can come out. Open the border and anything can come in. Outside of algebra, two minuses don’t make a plus.

Yeah, seems like Goldsmith is stating the obvious that everyone already knows, but not suggesting a specific plan. Nice of him.

39
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Just National trying to stay relevant when current events have shown the holes in their leadership and ideology. How long before Simon gets his marching orders?

Who is this Simon person?

15
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My bad, finger slipped, i meant Ximon.

Soyman..

John Key has disowned him, "Luxon will make a great PM"

13
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Mental note: never vote for Luxon.

A lot of Air NZ passengers know that already.

11
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Trick word there is "safely", so what he really meant to say is, "we won't be doing this any differently to the current government".

"Safely".. what does that mean.
Is it really that safe to lock up everyone inside their house even if it's a apartment?
4 weeks in there with kids and perhaps grandparents or relations?
The economy completely in the crapper for a long long time.. is that safely??

This from our neighbours across the pond:
Australian Politicians don't have the guts to admit COVID 19 was exaggerated
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_giEdRnzj0

Certain social distancing bans are actually completely useless
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wK_l09xUwYY

Also:

22 scientists who don't agree with this hypothesis, a very experienced group and worth your time to read/listen to these guys.

Why don't we hear on radio or see them on TV ????

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavir...

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coro...

Oh wow, conspiracy theorists, some even trying to disguise themselves as legit news outlets. I am so surprised

PA, very difficult to disguise yourself as some, say “legit,” news outlets I would suggest. But let’s have a go nevertheless. Producers and presenters alike to be equipped as follows. “Ear plugs . Blinkers. Linguistic skills of a parrot. Hides like a hippopotamus. Intelligence of a vacancy sign. Looks that are famous. Ambition of a cash register. Loyalty of Benedict Arnold. Integrity of a weasel.” Even then would probably stick out as under qualified.

TRYING to

Safely means the political spin you’ve been absorbing over the past 4 weeks without the intelligence to question the risk outcomes for the decision.
Good decisions, in this case, are made to minimise total harm - both extant and latent

He’s speaking in politics; like they all do!
Everyone implicitly knows he means Level 2

Pragmatism. Thanks Mr Goldsmith, that’s exactly what we need. See a problem, tackle a problem. Limited tourism, the carefully controlled return of International students, or at least teaching them remotely in their home country, are all possible. National’s problem though is whether to go with Collins now, or skip a term and wait for Luxon. Collins’ baggage is the issue. Simon Bridges is unelectable. Being a leader is about charisma, and getting the right people behind you, hopefully not with a knife.
During my trawling through international media this morning, it was somewhat alarming to read about fears for a worse second wave, and how countries which have successfully suppressed Covid will be more at risk because far fewer people have immunity. Don’t shoot the messenger, please. There seems to be an emerging consensus that Covid is here for good, at least until an effective treatment or a vaccine is found, if there is one. We have suppressed many viruses, but I don’t think any have been eliminated completely. I add the tautologous ‘completely’ given the PM’s interpretation of elimination. Steve Elers’ column on Stuff today is worth a read.

17
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Well yes, but is Goldsmith not stating the bleeding obvious. Things will happen when they can, not before.
Trying to stay relevant.

19
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The Nats are just as lost as Labour were during Key's reign. Lack of talent, little new talent, lack of meaningful policy direction and uninspired leadership.
I take back what I said about an interesting election. Nats don't have it in them.
And that's saying something given how poor Labour have been, and how wrecked our economy is.

ICYMI: "Truly bad things are coming down the pike and Labour lacks the depth of political talent required to deal with them" https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2020/04/deposing-simon-bridges-would-b...

The Nats have worse than no chance now we have to face the 'rona. NZ will vote for the strongest leader and that is a no contest, she'd probably even beat him in an arm wrestle.

14
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i have no problem with international students coming in on level two BUT it needs to be done in a controlled way which they have to pay for and is over seen by our government.
they need to be all tested before they get on the plane , when they arrive they must spend 14 days inside a government controlled hotel and given a test before they are released.
and they must cover all costs.
the study needs to be university level
the numbers controlled 1000 a month so as not to overwhelm our systems

they missed the start of year anyway, and there is a lot more risk now ,that things don't go as planned.

22
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..and make sure they are not coming for the ol 2 hr a week course that is really about a job at the petrol station.

12
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...or heading straight to Bay of Plenty for pre-arranged kiwifruit work under the guise of studying dubious "business" courses in Tauranga and Rotorua.

14
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That rort has been going on for so long. Just drive through Te Puke where the Indian gang masters live. They hire out fake student picking gangs, pricing for 10 workers but supplying 20. They can do this as they are paying the workers alot less than minimum wage. All the old school local picking gangs have been priced out. The sickening thing is, is that the greedy orchard owners know exactly whats going on. They don't care they just want MORE MORE MORE. NZ's greed is out of control at this point.

Some observations. Zespri pushed a massive increase in gold (G3) kiwifruit production since 2012, without the labour force to support that increase. This coincided with the National Party opening the floodgates for fake Indian students (Shane Jones' pseudo students) and allowing them to work. Cheap imported labour undercut and replaced many local operators.
The kiwifruit industry became dependent on cheap imported labour. Indian labour (and Indian subcontractors supplying that labour) to a significant extent "have the industry by the balls". Many Indian labour supply contractors readily exploit Indian labour (and other temporary workers such as backpackers). These type of operators have imported their business ethics from India and it is blatant. NZ tax/employment law is no more than an optional guideline.
Many Indian workers are willing to be exploited where there is possibility of obtaining residency, and once obtained then move to Auckland and other centres. Similar patterns are seen in liqour stores (Bottle-O and other independent liqour stores/chains) and ethnic restaurants, where jobs and positions are sold and workers exploited in exchange for sponsorship and residency qualification. Changes by the current Labour government have reduced both the flow of pseudo students and the dodgy education institutions which allow them to come to NZ.
Small size growers in the kiwifruit industry have little or no ability to change this behaviour. They are commonly reliant on kiwifruit orchard contractors, who in turn source (subcontract) labour from indian "gang masters" or labour supply contractors. Workers (legal or illegal) can be swapped in and out, and the grower and head contractor are none-the-wiser. Immigration NZ are under-resourced and lack the capacity to properly police the fraudulent and corrupt business practices outlined above. Perhaps direct regulation and joint investigation or auditing by Immigration/IRD of all kiwifruit labour supply contractors is necessary.
It is not cheap for the average small grower. Basic abour rates are currently in excess of $25 per hour plus GST. So the middle men (including those "Indian gang masters") do well out of this system.
In the last election, this issue is one significant reason I did not vote for the National Party. I cannot vote for the NP again until it publicly acknowledges and accepts the defects in its previous policies on immigration, international students and the corrupt/illegal employment practices by recent immigrants (including ex-international students who obtain residency) perpetuated from those policies.

They are not going to be coming in any great numbers anymore, remember the economic hit is happening everywhere, including China, and splashing money around all over the world will no longer be a thing. Air travel will become more and more expensive for a kicker.
There seems to be this notion that as soon as we "get back to normal" here, all will be right with the world. It won't, at least not in the way it was.
National need to get the noggins around this.

They do indeed.
They need to go further to the right to have any chance.

Elers includes 'marketing'.

Yup.

Yes, if we do get it in enough numbers, how can we travel to places who have and how do we let those who might have it, in?
Big problem

Assuming Jacindas COVID response remains popular they will stick with bridges as the sacrificial lamb at the next election.

27
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Goldsmith “We believe we should be moving as quickly as we safely can to open up the border,” Yes I wonder just how quickly that would manifest in to opening up international flights to China, too soon without any substantial quarantine like voluntary home quarantine, and then we're right back to square one again! Or should I save back to Level 4, when the infection rates increases thanks to National.

Yeah, Vote National and end up with Italy's death toll from the coronvirus.

You just won't believe as how many blue teams into property ponzi scheme here in NZ, NZH, ANZ etc. are all advocating the specific country for open border, as their master instruction is clear. We only move capital out, when our people can get in simple. Worldwide the magic weapon/united front works won't happen/activated... without the land to procure and agents to sleep on it. (OZ, UK, US, Canada)..NOT Malawi why?

National MPs will certainly be looking after their business interests in China before NZ

Att National Party.
Sit back and keep quiet, Labour will do enough campaigning for you shown by their lack of delivery and inability to handle what is coming.

13
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I am confused. I thought you loved Labour's ultra conservative lockdown approach?

We have what we have at present, so we get on with it. All the blar blar about what party would have down what is just background noise. There was no time to change who was in charge, so just get on with it.
What Labour has done has been good but could have been activated a week earlier for less pain.
That dose not mean that just roll over and agree with them.
My view of Labour being able to manage what is coming is not exactly flattering.
What National needs to do is come out with a viable bussiness plan for the future but that is tough because no now knows how deep this is going to go.
Labour has rolled out National's ideas and projects in the last year or so... therefore National should just be quiet and let Labour run it into the ground / or not...

To not lock down would have had massive economic effects and deaths as well. Several on here try and argue that but it is clear that it would have been the stupidest idea ever. Even Labour, NZF and the Greens thought it was a stupid idea...

Do you honestly think national would have shut down the border and economy quicker than labour?

As I said, we had who we had there was no time at all to change or even think about it..it is not worth thinking about. It does not matter at all, not worth an oz of goat crap.
Is this a Dear Liza story. There's a hole in my bucket dear Liza, dear Liza...

There is no way to tell, because we only have one government at a time.
It's not like to can select the other government operating at the same time as you would change phone companies.

All you have to go on in your case was that opposition were calling for earlier, tighter closure.
But how much does it mean.

You might get a clearer picture comparing to an Australian State government, though still environments different.

Warning signs are IMF think we will do comparatively poorer than most other countries except Venezuela.
Other things like poor transparency around PPE (rotting stock, not stocktakes) wierd buying arrangements, cockup over flu vaccine, still building contact tracing system, criticism from GPS, chemists and aged care sectors. Unclear testing plan & elimination v eradication & testing re aged care.

Odd treatment of Health Minister compared to other countries. Bikie gang members operating road blocks in north. Social situation in Queenstown that could blow to crisis. Many more lay offs to come. Apparently lots of food parcels in Auckland.

You should starting zooming with your people across the country & Australia, gives you amazing context. Everyone's situation is different.

Adding DHBs. They are complete black boxes. Everything is not just replicated, but different.

Nurses warn conflicting approaches to dealing with Covid-19 between district health boards and even within hospitals are putting health workers' safety at risk.

Dr Sandra Richardson from the College of Emergency Nurses at the Nurses Organisation said the Health Ministry's guidelines were interpreted differently by each DHB.

Some staff were receiving three sets of policies in one day, and different professions were taking different stances to using personal protective equipment and spacing patients, she said.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121275853/coronavirus-...

What was the level that all the planning in February, what level of detail was that done to. Did it include DHBs, who signed off as the February planning was conducted and fit for purpose?

No wonder the contact tracing fell apart as some as things started in March, everything would have been done differently, no transparency.

Remember what the Aged and care home industry said about DHBs / MoH relationship at the committee. Now the nurses seem support.

What comes next is a poisoned chalice for anyone unfortunate enough to have to drink from it.

Labour will have a tough time indeed, and National would fare no better. National's better option is really to lose the next election (which Ximon seems to be aiming at), change leader and wait for the next election. The next few years will be incredibly tough and they'll be able to spend the time pretending they'd have done better, then get likely get elected by default.

Realistically. It will be very difficult for anyone to manage the hardships of the next few years.

And National need to come up with a better and more patriotic plan than simply selling NZ to foreign billionaires, out from under the younger generations who have to pay off the debt. They need to be a little less self-absorbed property investors and CCP fans and a little more of NZers who govern for the benefit of NZers.

We agree for once, Rick. I've been through a few downturns and recessions, but I've never seen anything like this. The starting point seems to be a reduction of 20% of wage expense, either through agreed reductions or redundancies. This will accelerate through June as the wage subsidy runs out and tough decisions are made. Some like me will take early retirement without being recorded as unemployed, the same for others where remaining spousal income exceeds the limits to apply for the dole. I'm picking 15% recorded unemployment with those still at work on reduced wages/salaries. Add a preference to save, not spend and the Government has a poisoned chalice. I think the current lot are as incompetent as they come, but I struggle to see National holding to their ideology if they win. I'm voting for ACT and hopefully insulated from what's about to occur.

I'll have you almost believing I am actually a disillusioned long-time National voter if I keep up like this, eh? :)

Yeah...this does feel like nothing we've seen in our recent years.

I was reading through this RBNZ material on the Great Depression the other night. Very interesting background for a time like this. https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/reservebank/files/publications/bulletin...

If your going to vote act then might as well cut out the middleman and go straight to Xi.

I'd say this is why Sanders bailed out of the yank election. So now they have trump and biden, who cant even pronouce his own name properly. Reminds me of Mrs Bucket....

Are we ahead of them? Debatable.

18
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Agree that sooner one comes out of the lockdown better and is same when someone is admitted in hospital, earlier he comes out of it better BUT should only be discharged if is fine and on recommendation of doctors.

So should come out of lockdown asap but........not just to please opposition who is playing politics.

^^^ ding ding ding jackpot

It would be interesting to know the proportion of people who are financially okay with the lock-down. People who should be okay are:

The retired
Unemployed (before lock-down)
Students
Sickness beneficiaries
Those with sufficient rainy day funds
Those still working

80-90% of the population?

No way that high.
Yes most are still working, but I hear of many whose income has been cut 20-30%.
Students? You are kidding right? A large proportion of them, like my son, need to work part time, often in hospo or retail.
You say 80-90%. I would say maybe 40-50%

17
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Watching Martin North the other night, his household surveys suggest that within the next month or so around 40% people with mortgages are going to have difficulty making payments to banks. So very soon it is going to become clear how bad this is - I feel like we're in a bit of holding pattern at present while the government covers some costs, but soon reality is going to set in and there could be significant financial pain for a lot of people this year.

Most should be able to get a six month mortgage holiday to help over the worst of it. But it's the ones in the tourist industry that are really going to be effected and just think of all those Airbnb's that will hit both long term rental and sales in the property market.

Then what?

Then you are 6 months down the track, still not much chance of earning enough and have an average of $35,000 over the duration of your loan tacked on.
I agree IO, it still comes home to roost if it's now or 10 years down the track.

It's becoming apparent that part of our society thinks that nothing has changed. If you want to buy the 4th house, just go to the bank and get the loan. What is unfolding hasn't happened in a long, long time. Nobody knows what is going to happen! So people talking about BAU - I find it very difficult not to laugh.

End of the long term and short term debt cycles. All the balance sheets were ugly everywhere.

Whatever pricked the mutha of all bubbles, the fall out was always going to be ugly.

A few people that I've talked to are BAU. These are people that are fairly smart and very good at what they do. One says we won't even go into recession, it's a short term blip, he read a FB post about it the other day.... wtf..
It's a duck with a live handgranade strapped to it.
It's got me stuffed how people can't see that.

For some that's right and they will be the ones that do very well out of this, the rest not so much.

Yep given how many households took up mortgage holidays, which is the last card you play, then you right on the money.

19,000 mortgage applications according to Westpac. That's just their customers.

There was an interview with ANZs CEO in the FT and Mr. Elliott was saying that around 7% of their loan book has already asked for relief. That was the beginning of the week however.

Be interesting to see what happens when government handouts stop and people go on job seeker benefit and try to pay the mortgage/rent plus all the other bills.

If my "interesting" you mean debt defaults/deleveraging, mass devaluation of inflated assets and a big wealth reset via deflation, then yes.

It's a bold move underestimating the central bankers.

Deflation? Money printer goes brrrrr

No you misunderstand, I am fully expecting the Central Banks to print. Printing will deflate the value of currencies.

Yep we've been effected by the -20% wage drop in the education/tech sector.

As has my wife (early childhood centre), she was on full pay during Level 4 but next week it's reduced rosters consisting of 5 hour shifts on alternate days, likely pay being topped up to 80%.

By "okay" I don't necessarily mean "unaffected". For example someone could have lost their job but have enough savings to get by. Older workers close to retirement possibly. Or they could be using up their annual holiday budget while on lock-down.

I'm really thinking of someone who would be okay with the government extending lock-down a few more weeks and it wouldn't ruin them. What proportion of the population fall into this category?

Okay, fair enough.
If we include those affected, possibly significantly but not ruined, maybe 70%.
Another 3 weeks of lockdown? That would drop, to possibly 50%.

Anecdotal I know but I don’t personally know anyone who is in trouble or anywhere near it yet. (By the way I accidentally hit the report comment button instead of reply so you are no doubt being investigated by the interest team right now)

You’re both missing the public sector, government workers, council staff. Teachers have lost my respect though. Supermarket workers, health workers have been heroes, but as soon as teachers are asked to their bit, moan, moan, bitch. If you don’t want to work, take sick leave, unpaid leave. If you’re drawing a salary, do what you’re paid to do!

Tell me where supermarket workers have to keep small children socially isolated. This is going to be almost impossible among children probably all ages to some degree or other.

Life has its complications for many of us at the moment. I would just posit the theory that if you cannot control children, then possibly teaching isn’t for you.

I think there’s a reasonable amount of people who are still working from home or essential services and whose disposable income has gone up due to lower interest rates, not paying for daycare and lack of spending opportunities in lockdown level 4 & 3. Look at the flood of new members sharesies have post lockdown

We are in that category: income the same, spending way down, savings way up. For now at least - I am expecting a pay cut at some stage!

I'm included in this cohort: essential services, IT/remote work, WFH, no debt, discretionary income way up (no fuel, ditched Sky Sport, no eating out, no holiday spend). Intend to plough a lot back into the locals once the Cold Dead Hand is lifted from their revenue activities. Most neighbours just fine too. But one is AirNZ....not so hot.

Z-S - you missed one.

Those who were self-sufficient, or nearly so.

:)

Yes of course, the self-sufficient, preppers etc. Kept women, very young children. I'm sure the list is quite long which led me to guess 80-90% of the general population. That said 10-20% in financial trouble would be significant.

"kept women"? I just vommed in my mouth.

Zachary still isn't able to deal with the real world, ever since the modern series of Lost In Space and his lead character was transformed in to a woman. Basically he has issues, poor, poor ZS.

Z S,

"Kept women". What century are you living in? Given your oft stated admiration for the British Empire, I'll go for the mid 19th Century when British gunboats ruled the world and women knew their place.

The lockdown has been ok in our household. No income drop, no exposure to equities etc, greatly reduced discretionary spend. However, all around us there are cracks showing with family and friends losing jobs or on reduced hours. I expect it all to hit the fan when we get to level 2 and the wage subsidy runs out. I fully expect to lose my job, but am comfortable with that outcome. As long as I can maintain the value of my savings I can wait out more than a decade.

Add public servants to that list.

Im feeling good at the moment, but I run a business on trade terms, so cash is coming in now, but next month, there will be nothing coming through the door barring bills.

I saw a statistic that most people (70% plus of the population) wouldnt last more than 2 weeks without being paid.

32
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Reopening the border - yeah but at what cost.

Sorry cannot open border for now so please tell your master to wait in Ch....

Richard what is the cost?
What's the benefit.
1. Treasury have figured of cost of lockdown levels as drops in gdp.
2. IMF is forecast we do comparatively worse (gdp this yr and next) than all countries we compare to.
3. Borders back to some sort of travel with Australia would be a likely first start (what makes you think of ever opening the border with China again?).
4. Are we clear on if the virus is being eliminated or eradicated, and what's the cost difference.

17
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Cost of lockdown compared to what exactly. I'll bet most are still comparing it to pre lockdown. That's simply not the reality. Our whole economic system is in turmoil (terminal?) And simply coming out of lockdown is not going to put those incomes back in place.

It seems to be very hard to get that message across

Bingo

ding ding ding

Compare scenario of earlier transition to L2...L1 vs estimated Corona death/other health impacts and the benefits of both.
Given we are looking at primarily an internal domestic economy for sustenance for a while the prospect of “sustaining” and eventually growing will be a whole lot harder the more capital, spirit and enterprise is destroyed from frozen, servile people - the illogical fear and the inability to see life is not meant to be fair nor is it meant to be feared. ANZAC day reminds me humanity makes sacrifice, both in lives and in wealth (social, economic and physical), to preserve what we believe is worth preserving (whether propaganda or not).

Tell me this, why have we done what we have done? How does this stack up to fact we make decisions regarding people’s lives and health every day through budgets, policy and the ballot box.

You can do a proper cost comparison as soon as you figure out how much a person's life is worth.

When I was a philosophy student, a question was: if someone had a spare 100 dollars, and they don't give it to someone who needs a lifesaving drug that costs that amount, are they a murderer? Can’t remember the answer, but I think it was something to do with moral relativism.

Lockdown is unavoidable either do intially and prevent spread of virus or let virus soread and than do lockdown.

I think first option is better and economy not only in NZ but world over is going for a toss.

Any country that is not facing financial and health crisis. Some more and some More more.. But all atleast NZ has managed to control health for now.

Anything that National says or means has China connation. Bitter Truth.

17
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Usual swampy rubbish we expect from National - and I usually vote national. Paying beneficiaries more is pointless - unaffected group. Only giving money to those who need it is immoral - if you use that logic you would only give it to the 50% of the population who are net non-contributors so have never paid in.
Commercial landlords - tough. In my experience they run the landlord/tenant relationship strictly by the letter of of the contract - when you do that you risk your tenant also doing that - which has happened with the ADLS lease.

18
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Interesting to note how many cafe/bars etc owners are saying that they may notre open.
This after only 4/5 weeks after lockdown.
Makes you wonder how sellers of such businesses can justify the asking prices the want when selling.

That's right - its a bad place to be. Who would want to buy the business? So there could be significant falls in values across the board.

12
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I have long thought that there are far too many cafes.

Asking prices on businesses don't reflect sale price and many hospo businesses sit on market for ages even in good times before massively discounting just to exit.

22
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Now if Steven Joyce had written that piece, I'd understand; it's up to his usual standard - drivel.
But that the National Party finance spokesman has penned it...well... at least 3 and maybe 6 more years in the wilderness.
(NB: I've voted National; Labour and TOP in the last 3 elections - based only on what their policies were at the time. Unless National change direction, it won't be them again this time)

Yes agree. I've voted across parties depending upon policy/culture at the time. Won't catch me voting National this year - not even close. If Luxon were to come in and change the culture a bit, I might consider it.

And his legacy is?

1. A business which couldn't wait-out a 1:100-year event, and which had no future near-term anyway.
2. a belief problem https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2019/11/08/chosen-to-rule-what-sort-of-christ...

Although he shares belief with a lot of folk - everyone who believes in money, at this stage, has to be on shaky ground.....

Well you have our right leaning voters claiming 'Labour has no business experience'. But then at the same time have Simon Bridges running their ship! (who has no business experience). So at least if Luxon comes in some credibility can be claimed - good or bad.

Did you know that all the crims at Rotarua preferred to have their cases heard at Tauranga.
Guess who was on the crowns side there with his foot (and a couple of hands) in his mouth?

Yet its front and centre on his CV. Bit like Farmers year at treasury courtesy of Norah's Clueless Swiftyland/Wally connections where as a recent graduate and farmer he was useful in getting the coffees just right.
Message is CVs for MPs need careful perusal.

well lets check Luxon's credentials...he's been running the National Airline half owned by the government which has now effectively failed which paints him as an ineffectual leader, no back up plan, no vision, nothing. Do not try and sell him to me as a future leader...he just isn't.

Does 'effectively failed' mean failed? or, kinda failed? or, hasn't actually failed but, you know what I mean? Another bachelor of Tautology, just like our prime minister.
Its amusing to start to see the slur/smear campaign emerge out of thin air. Maybe there is just a wee bit of fear that Luxon may actually be very effective? oh no, we can't have that can we.
Be nice. Just be nice. Listen to your leader (Jacinda) and be nice.

In fairness, if you were going to elect a former Air NZ CEO to fix problems, you'd go with one who fixed problems at Air NZ. Fyfe, not Luxon.

According to all the folk I know at Air NZ, Luxon is a good salesman who did okay keeping things ticking along after Fyfe had done the hard stuff.

its 'Wash your hands' now repeat after me....

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Open the borders. Got to keep our foreign donors happy...

Perhaps it’s got more to do with limiting the economic damage that younger generations are ultimately going to have to pay for.

Yes so true. That's why they're the "Covid Generation"
I feel sorry for those poor guys.

Nope. Not true. After the end of the last long term debt cycle (and all other long term debt cycles) debt was massively wiped out and there was a golden era of productivity, wealth and equality.

What we are about to see is a massive wealth reset. Hopefully there won't be a war this time in order to force it, but unfortunately the mega rich will often hoard their wealth and refuse the move to more equality to such an extent, that political instability will eventually lead us to war.

Read Ray Dalio. The wealth reset is happening already. Billions has already been wiped. It will be nasty in the short term, no doubt. But history shows us that long term... it will be better.

Wow. Maybe we should have asked for this sooner then.

Its been required, but governments, central banks and front line banks have been doing everything in their power to prevent it. But looks like it might be beyond their control this time.

Oh, so the open borders aren't a major part of the reason we are in this mess?
In fact I'd wager they are the BIGGEST reason we are in this mess.

Lots of tourists, oh shit we need more people to look after the tourists. So we hire tourists to look after other tourist so tying up a heap of beds.
Then other tourists saw how prices of houses were going up because the tourists (both kinds) were taking up all the spare beds. So those tourists bought houses here and locked them up putting MORE pressure on house prices/rents.

So let's summarise. If we arsehole ALL the tourists maybe house prices would be real and everyone could have a house.

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National Party, you just too stoopid! We all saw post gfc, post chch quakes in particular but not limited exclusively to those 2 events... that National are just too conservative in their thinking to solve complex problems and simply resort to their archane idology of not doing anything. I tend to view their recent 3 terms in government as a tragedy, a decade of wasted potential. They have no vision, ergo I feel they are no longer fit as contenders for government. The current coalition my not be my ideal construct but at least they are acting broadly instead of hiding meekly in their mousehole like National apparently would.

Agree - just doing what Labour did but better. Should have repealed WFF and replaced the money and bureaucracy with tax cuts across the board. Should not have increased minimum wage as it is highly discriminatory against those who arent capable of creating value at $22 ph.

Interesting, how do you see higher min wage as highly discriminatory? I would have thought its just as good as WFF if not better... beacause it means landlords can jack up the rent accordingly each time the min wage is increased?

I pretty much agree that they have no vision beyond the top end of town, but there real problem seems to be a lack of values beyond doing the deal. This position was cemented under JK, who’s real claim to fame is success as a professional gambler of other people’s money!

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If The Nats gave up their pro-China ideology and apologised for lying about the housing crisis I would consider voting for them, as this coalition are not impressing me and I have zero trust in Winnie. I wish this would happen so I had options. The way it stands, with Simon appearing to be a fan of the CCP, I will not go near them.

Yip - you end up getting pushed towards the green party because Labour and National are pretty much the same, just a different colour tie. It becomes a selection of not whats good, but what is the lesser of many evils.

F b,
I have the same voting problems. The current lot are, to put it kindly, thin on talent. I don't like Peters and I positively loathe Shane Jones. But when I look right, I see a Bridge to nowhere and no obvious replacement. I dislike Collins as much as Jones. That leaves me with the Greens and while I broadly support their environmental policies, I fear that they may be moving too far left with their social policies. What to do?

ditto

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Gutless. Never have an alternative level or date do they?
That is because do not want responsibility for being wrong, whereas PM has to take that resp
That is difference between being in office and being in power as Geoffrey Howe once said in UK.
Sooner National get obliterated at election the better

When we reach level 2. Move some testing facilities and lab equipment to Auckland airport. Test 100% on arrival. All arrivals have compulsory 24hrs Isolation in airport area hotel on arrival. If you test negative you can carry on and enjoy your holiday. There are 1400+ rooms within 5km of the airport in hotels with the ability to provide 24/7 room service. That is potential for 2800 arrivals per day on share twin basis. That would only be half our existing testing capacity. Build it into the cost of the travel package. No pay no play. High-value tourists only. The more you commit to spending through prepayment for accommodation and activities the higher up the waiting list you go. Yes, there would be a waiting list to visit a CV19 free country during a global pandemic. We could even force them to fly here on Air NZ

Yes, the immediate, most possible medical advancement required to get tourism going in an Oz/NZ bubble is a simple test/ tests to determine if you've got the virus or had the virus.
Emirates trialled a 10 min test this week. Not sure of its reliability.
Prob also need to ascertain what immunity is given once you recover from the virus also.

The immunity is quite simple and well proved. You can get it again.

Most practical plan I’ve heard so far.

The airlines will struggle to operate commercial passenger flights for at least 12 month - physical distancing on planes will mean carrying 1/3rd of former passenger loads - costs per seat prohibitive. We wont get back to 2019 passenger levels through Auckland Airport for at least 5 years.

You're right, this is a great opportunity for some new thinking this election year. Hopefully we'll get some although I wouldn't hold my breath. The trouble being at the end of the money food chain is that you usually have to do as you're told. With most of our banks foreign owned by Australia & most of those banks owned by the big American banks, we will probably have to follow our masters, or else! The other main choice is China who need/want our food. So (for me) we're between a rock & a hard place. We could go Japanese as we already have of lot of Yen invested here (through the banks) with Europe the only other real source, and they can't even keep up their own payment systems so fat chance on any interest from them. Mr Orr has started the presses so we'll be fine. He & Mr Robertson have it all under control.

Absolutely reopening the border or at least parts of it like to Australia has to be a priority. It’s all very well comparing our lockdown response to the likes of Taiwan’s “gold standard” but what Jacinda and Grant have not accounted for is that our economy is not the same as theirs or a lot of others we compare our response strategy to as around 20pc of our export receipts come from Tourism. Just shutting that part of the economy down for 18 months and hermetically sealing ourselves off from the rest of the world and hoping an effective vaccine will be produced in that time, if at all, was always an extremely high risk strategy. A strategy I might add that was landed on us without much in the way of robust debate. Fortunately for us Australia’s less economically destructive containment measures have been just as effective as ours has been and gives us the opportunity to partially open the border and maybe breath a little bit of life back into the devastated regional economies like Rotorua and Queenstown. Devastation that if not repaired soon will quickly spread to the wider economy.

"our economy is not the same as theirs or a lot of others"
Quite right. And because of that New Zealand has ONE SHOT and, one shot only, at getting this right. Australia, and others. could afford to relapse back into a higher state of lockdown if needed; we don't.
We have the economic capacity to do this once. And if it's not good enough then we will be confined internally ( social distancing etc ) and externally ( we won't be allowed to travel without impediments) for a very long time.
Given that, is it any wonder that we may err on the side of, "Well! We overdid that!". But isn't that better then the alternative of thinking, "If only....."

I think you missed my point. There are alternatives but but we got locked into this one with no going back now. History will no doubt tell which of the various countries got there strategy right with the balance to their economic situation and managing the strain on the health system. As it is we have killed tourism and run an extremely high risk strategy of containment. At the moment Australia and Sweden look like they have probably picked the right balance but as I say time will tell.

Only people who suck on the teat of right wing propaganda news sources, think Sweden is an example of success. 80% of their resolved cases have died (compared to 7% in Denmark). Everywhere else in Europe, active cases has peaked and are going down, Sweden's is nowhere near peaking. Have a look for yourself https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Also, the other virus-denier countries of Brazil and Belarus also have rapidly worsening virus, economic and political situations.

I’m not sure I would count the BBC News as a right wing propaganda news source if you want to check their most recent very balanced review of Swedens strategy. Death toll sitting at 0.02 pc of the entire population and a large majority of those aged with health disabilities. They have been keeping hospitals going and still have spare capacity for Covid cases and by most estimates will have 25 pc plus of the entire population exposed and immune by the 1st of may. And what I said was time will tell and gave both Australia and Sweden as examples.

wow - looks like their going to learn America's lesson. Underestimate this and take a whipping.

McNitty,

"we have killed tourism'. Really? I rather think the virus did that. Do you really think foreign tourists would be pouring in now? Who would be flying them here? get real.

Not pouring in no. But under this strategy they won’t be allowed in till there is a vaccine and in the best case that’s 18 months away. Unless of course Trump’s idea of injecting disinfectant turns out to be a winner!!

And I'm fine with that. In fact dump tourism as it is wrecking the country. Good riddance!!

Goodo. Didn’t need that $20b of foreign cash coming into the economy anyway did we. Any other sectors you don’t like and think we should do away with??

So you believe their numbers? What a hoot.
First off if the numbers were true why is tourism in so much shit?

Jafa airport just had to raise over a billion cause no planes for a bit to cover running costs. That's just a short term cover to boot.
I live in the epicentre of tourism, it's creating far more costs and problems than earnings for EVERYONE here. It can not be allowed to go back to what it was.

We can do a way better than mass tourism.

Second that.

Yes I believe MBIE’s numbers. Not sure what point you’re making with AIAL’s capital raise, obviously this is a bad thing in your world too. unfortunately most small and medium businesses don’t have such access to capital and Those that need it to survive will fail. unemployment will head up etc etc. I guess you’re happy with that too.

Auckland airport is tourism.
However I'll break it down. 4 billion in rental subsidies straight off the top, we import so many work visas to look after tourists among other things that they are a major contributing factor to those subsidies.
As for the unemployment. That really is laughable. 400 000 people to be returned to their home countries will do two things, keep AirNZ ticking along and open up those jobs here.
There is going to be a shortage of shearers and shedhands. There is going to be a huge shortage of tractor drivers. All the cultures are going to need staff.
Cafe and restaurants will level out, some will go down the hole but the kiwi staff will be picked up by other cafes etc.
So the real unemployment numbers may not change greatly, however if the fools in govt don't get rid of the work visa people we should be baying for political blood.
Yes the overall economy is going to drop but that's the same in every country.

Resulting in an upward pressure on wages as employers compete for a dwindling pool of workers. Inflation?

You really have worked it all out! I’m convinced now too we really do have to get rid of tourism. Thanks for the insight.

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Reopen foreign property sales (anti sovereignty) reopen the border (let virus back in), protect commercial landlords (debt ponzi bank profit first)...It's like National wants to loose the election.

There is a certain number of people who still think this is just another flu, and the flu had killed more people than this. They fail to point out that in order to control this disease, it requires billions of dollars to be lost in productivity to lockdown people from coming into contact with others. Otherwise the numbers and deaths write be multitudes worse. NZ should be looking at new ways of doing things. We needed to do this before this occurred because we were killing our planet and it wasn't sustainable long term, and it was being led by money and greed.

"Goldsmith said any additional increases should only be temporary, noting “substantially higher” benefits would remove the incentive for people to get back into work."
And this is different to paying a wage subsidy causing business to not look for a better model to make money how? ( Not a dig at businesses, just a jab at the hypocrisy)

I’m surprised he didn’t promote removing the foreign buyers ban as one way to help re-open the economy. The wealthy CCP apparatchiks could purchase their homes from offshore and relocate to New Zealand at Level 2. We need to get the rock star economy going!

Ximon will be awaiting CCP instruction before bringing that up again.

When someone comes into Nz we have no idea if someone has the virus or not. Nor can we trust they will self isolate, and it has been proven some won't. So any travel will require quarantine. The whole reason we went into lockdown was because our system for tracking was overwhelmed by the huge number of cases that were occurring and community transmission and the restrictions they had in place didn't work. Eg clusters occurred in events and situations that were perkitted , but already had mitigation restrictions in place. This is a disease distributed by open borders and travel. Why do we normally quarantine animals coming into the country but not humans? We are all animals

More to the point, opening up means asking - to who, under what conditions. Most comments are simply tribal reflexive so far: red/blue, prepper/unprepared, subsistence existence/urban luxury, quasi-religious incantationists/full-on science. None of that is frankly very useful.

Some heretical thoughts:

  • We know what we can Export but there's not much notion of How long-term. If FF is goneburger or too unstable, we may need to swallow our principles and think about a nuclear-propelled shipping service (maybe shared with Oz, which has plenty of U). Air freight may be a stop-gap but obviously cannot handle thousands of tonnes a week....and electric planes are a science fiction proposition for long-haul. City-hops, maybe.
  • We need plenty of imports of raw materials or finished goods we simply cannot easily get ourselves: most metals, cotton, rice, sugar are examples of the former; chips, capacitors, tractors, trucks, machine tools, locomotives of the latter. Again, Oz is the obvious partner here.
  • Few commenters including Goldsmith of the article and many on this august site, have much idea about how to preserve social cohesion and at the same time have some progress towards a new configuration during the transition that is a'comin' down the pike. It's simply ridiculous to expect the laid-off media types to 'learn to code', the tourist-trap woikers to light out for the nearest subsistence farm, the teeming masses of South Auckland and Northland to be Educated quickly or value-added enough to become SME entrepreneurs, the youngsters in the meshes of what passes for Education to look forward to - well - anything much in their fondly hoped-for future. We'll frankly be lucky to see a fraction of any of this, and disconnection does tend to lead to social unrest if history is any guide. Yet cohere, somehow, we must.
  • No-one has much of a way through any of this. The talking-down we endure from the Covid Crew is one pole to be avoided, as are the Sermons from the Mount from those convinced that the way that works for their tiny fiefdom, is The Way, the Truth and the Life we must henceforth all Obey, at the other pole. As always, muddling through some sort of emergent middle is what we'll end up doing, assuming the centre holds. If it doesn't, look out below. In these circumstances, philosophers are far more useful than the Experts and the Zealots. Leonard Cohen became an advocate for 'Love is the only engine of survival' in his songs and life, and Alain de Botton, via a long series of books about How to Live in our fractured times, are two I recommend.

    Almost an epilogue waymad. The pendulum will always swing past the centre on either direction. One day maybe the centre may prevail but not under this col.
    I bet social distancing will be a ‘thing’ forever more. Just wait, climate change emergency levels will be next.

    No opening the border unless we can do the 10 minute blood test Emirates is doing

    https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-becomes-first-airline-to-...

    This should be applied to all current flights as aircrew are not subject to 14 quarantine, and the applied to all inbound and outbound flights.

    I agree with Paul. Reopen tomorrow as the chance of dying from the Wu flu IS the same as the chance of dying of the old fashioned flu ie 0.1%. And if we do not open the border, 25% of our economy is vaporised.

    As the Cambridge University statistician recently noted; there is no "excess mortality". Less people are actually dying than last year in most countries. I believe this is a totally fabricated crisis and a statistical chimera.

    Jacinda's brain fade will probably, however, kill about 1,000 people who are too scared or (newly) poor to see their doctor...Medical appointments have plunged about 90% in New Zealand and cancer spreads quick...

    A: you don't live in a tourist area
    Or
    B: You are up the tourism ladder
    Which is it?

    Where is your source? World O Meter shows how many reported cases, vs how many deaths. At least 20 times more poeple die from this, and even more when the health system gets overwhelmed.

    Agree

    Sunchap,

    You are wrong

    The highest per capita testing in the world in Iceland and UAE indicate that the Infection Fatality Rate will be of the order of 0.5% to 0.7%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-24/is-coronavirus-wor...
    The bloomberg article indicating the large antibody testing in New York gives a similar infection fatality rate at 0.5%
    The same bloomberg article indicates the seasonal flu is 0.04% (the typically quoted 0.1% is closer to a case fatality rate)

    This means that covid19 is 0.5%/0.1% = 5x to 0.7%/0.04% = 17.5x more fatal than the seasonal flu

    In addition, some folk keep misleadingly citing Iceland re asymptomatic cases. Iceland's authorities noted that many who were asymptomatic at the time they were tested subsequently became symptomatic.

    Goldsmith said there would need to be a good explanation for giving cash payments to people who haven’t had to take pay cuts and are relatively economically unscathed by the downturn."

    Righto. Do NOT come expecting me to pay for it when nats had a hell of a lot to do with the current situation. Unscathed must be code for weren't greedy and stupid, like to see a Nat MP that's unscathed in this.

    What on earth has National Got to do with the current situation????

    They caused the excessive house price rises that will crash this economy.

    Ummm... so you think somehow National have continued to uphold the greedy housing market under Labour and NZfirst. Given both parties actually campaigned to reform it

    Can you elaborate on how the NP caused excessive house prices. As I recall they took over just as the GFC was hitting and the economy was tanking, house prices crashed 15 pc and residential construction work effectively stopped for 4 years as there was no demand. Having an earthquake in the middle that cost 10pc of GDP didn’t help much either. Then the economy got going again and housing demand picked up again and house prices rose. Would you have preferred that they kept the country in recession??

    If it avoids selling our sovereignty to China, yes.

    Even the Sir JK admitted this current event.. in comparison cubed the GFC, sadly you must look the past 30 years, off course one can argue Lab started this, buy hey that's why at least some of us voted NP couple times, in believe they can change things, buy yea... just making it worst. So until you lives around AKL East the past 3-5years & liaised with most NP rep to know more about their core believe & actions.
    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1507/S00101/the-fire-economy-new-zeala...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGrBCtOt4Qs

    Your quote from the article is his response to the idea of giving out helicopter money. I would have thought targeting of some form is not unreasonable and don’t understand what point you are trying to make. Whatever it is it appears totally unrelated to the quote.

    Joe90 has been busy, maybe he might have a go at knifing Ximon? Who would he go with - the westie or the millionaire mercenary? Hard to see the electorate embracing Collins, as she has an uncanny resemblance to Mrs Mainzeal and is a bit tainted by some of hubby’s bad press?

    It's got to be Muller, doesn't it? Who else is so relatively unknown that they are untainted? Luxton? Don't make me laugh!
    Muller wouldn't win this one ( none of them will!), but that experience might help down the line.

    This is not the first time people facing 'uncertainty' in human history. Apparently, watching too much 'Contagion' will not resolve the issue. Because there was no act/scene of opening the country there. The question is that shall we use our brain as well as answer and prepare for wave 2, 3, 4, 5 and N?

    Easily predictable blue team comment, they expecting the bluey line of saviours from.. their overlord.
    Nice doco to watch during lock down, less governance regulatory body, leave to free market..open the market there?.. at the cost of land investment here...same modus operandii, then it's people migration.. how many native Kiwis locally employed? - from stats: it's just employing the PR/Citizen status.. but from specific overlord ethnicity, blue team, banks, media.. the past 15yrs only had one card for overseas funding:
    https://tinyzonetv.to/watch-movie/watch-the-china-hustle-2018-free-59408...

    Some experiences out of Asia to think about and consider in the discussion

    1) FYI, Hong Kong had zero cases on one day - last Monday.

    "Following a March spike that accompanied the return of numerous Hongkongers from abroad, the city’s daily tally of infections has dropped into the single digits, where it has held steady since April 12, with zero reported on Monday for the first time in nearly two months."

    On Tuesday, despite the signs of improvement, officials announced the extension of most social distancing rules, including the shutting of bars, gyms, beauty salons, massage parlours and karaoke lounges, for at least two more weeks.

    "Hong Kong confirmed four new Covid-19 cases on Wednesday, including a child of two, bringing the city’s total infections to 1,033. All four had recently returned from Britain."

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3081068/c...

    It's the incoming travellers that are taking it in and responsible for the new cases. It only takes one asymptomatic infection in the community to restart the infection count in the wider community.

    2) Experience out of Harbin in China. It only takes one to restart infections ...

    https://twitter.com/SGCFin/status/1253526963811016708/photo/1

    The border should not be opened until there is a world class quarantine centre on the airport. The makeshift arrangement the government have in place is sub optimal to say the least.

    Auckland and Christchurch International Airports should already be ripping out the retail space and replacing it with the facilities required to quarantine inbound and transit passengers in the coming years.

    Jeez, what is this with the "corporate welfare" label? Do you really not understand that small and medium sized businesses are not corporations? This is just blatant lefty demonisation of all businesses as parasitic. Please, no more.

    This is how you do it.
    The contact tracing App.

    https://youtu.be/duSClwDUogM

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/techau.com.au/the-governments-covid-19-trac...

    Ozzies are downloading it now in droves.

    Keep the border sealed off until there is a vaccine - we cannot afford to re-import the China Virus and end up in Level 4 again. We also need to understand whether or not people who have the China Virus are immune or can get another dose. Also appear to be ongoing health impacts with people who have had this lethal virus ending up on dialysis and other younger people having strokes etc. Maybe China already has a vaccine but keeping it to themselves for now?