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Dairy prices rise sharply; Hong Kong struggles economically; Beijing preparing for "downward pressures"; RBA's policy shifts hesitant; UST 10yr 1.54%, oil and gold soft; NZ$1 = 71.1 USc; TWI-5 = 74.7

Business / news
Dairy prices rise sharply; Hong Kong struggles economically; Beijing preparing for "downward pressures"; RBA's policy shifts hesitant; UST 10yr 1.54%, oil and gold soft; NZ$1 = 71.1 USc; TWI-5 = 74.7

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news downward pressures are starting to build in China.

But first, the overnight dairy auction was a very good one with overall prices up +4.3% in US dollars and up +5.1% in New Zealand currency. There are many positives. The key WMP price rose slightly more than expected, up +2.7% but the foodservice products were all stronger than expected with SMP up +6.6%, butter up +4.7% and the star of the show was the cheddar cheese price up +14%. And in a virtuous influence, all this came as the Kiwi dollar retreated. On a pure calculation basis that suggests a farmgate milk price of NZ$8.80/kgMS and far above the new higher estimate of the dairy analysts. This is all 'good news' because we are now heading into the peak milk flow part of the dairy season.

Global attention is now turning to the US Fed's policy review tomorrow. The expected unwind of their easy money policies has traders watching for how that will reverberate through financial markets.

Elsewhere, Canadian building permits rose more than expected in September and making back some earlier weakness.

Hong Kong retail sales rose +7.3% in September from a year ago, but that is still very disappointing for them and they remain in a deep funk. This data is still -6.4% lower than the September 2019 level, and an amazing -23% lower than the September 2018 level. China's takeover has left the City very badly damaged in a way it is now illegal to discuss there.

In Beijing, a notice on an official website sparked online alarm after it urged local authorities to stabilise food supply, and families to stockpile daily necessities. The official explanation said it related to weather and pandemic risks (and not war with Taiwan and some has assumed).

Adding to unease is Premier Li's acknowledgement that China’s economy faces new downward pressures.

China's shrinking steel industry is having the expected ripple impact on iron ore prices, with them falling below US$100/tonne yesterday. They have fallen -45% since peaking in May this year.

Going the other way is the price of oats which hit a new all-time high yesterday. The cost of your breakfast cereal is about to jump.

Yesterday, the RBA signaled it is ending its interest rate targeting via the three year Government bond. This was part of a shift in focus brought about because it is acknowledging inflation will be higher there than they have assumed, but they claim it will be milder than for everyone else. The era of easy money and ultra cheap property debt is ending. However, it is holding its 0.1% policy rate and tolerating inflation in a bid, some say, to drive up wages in Australia.

And staying in Australia, Delta cases in Victoria have dropped to 989 cases reported there yesterday, and less than the day before and the first time in more than a month it has been below 1000. There are now 19,409 active cases in the state and there were another 9 deaths yesterday. In NSW there were another 173 new community cases reported yesterday with 3,331 active locally acquired cases which is lower, and they had 4 deaths yesterday. Queensland is still reporting zero new cases. The ACT has 5 new cases. Overall in Australia, more than 78% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 11% have now had one shot so far.

The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.54% and down -3 bps overnight. The US 2-10 rate curve starts today steeper at +109 bps. However, their 1-5 curve is flatter at +103 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also flatter at +151 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate has fallen -10 bps to 1.84%. The China Govt ten year bond is down another -2 bps at 2.94%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is unchanged at 2.56%.

On Wall Street, the S&P500 has opened today +0.4% in the Tuesday afternoon trade and a new all-time record high. Overnight, European markets were higher but mixed with Frankfurt up +0.9%, Paris up another +0.4% and a 20 year high, but London down -0.2%. Yesterday, Tokyo ended down -0.4% after the super-large rise on Monday. Hong Kong fell another -0.2% and Shanghai ended its session down a very sharp -1.1%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday session down -0.6% while the NZX50 finished down -0.3%.

The price of gold will start today at US$1788/oz and down -US$3 from this time yesterday.

And oil prices are -50 USc lower at just under US$83/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84/bbl. 

The Kiwi dollar opens today sharply lower, down almost -1c to just under 71.1 US. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally firmer at 95.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also sharply softer at 61.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today well down than at this yesterday at just under 74.7, but still well over the top of the 72-74 range of the past eleven months.

The bitcoin price has risen +4.3% since this time yesterday, and now at US$63,813. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just over +/-3.2%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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74 Comments

Going the other way is the price of oats which hit a new all-time high yesterday.

I wonder why. Cost of fertiliser, maybe?

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My daughter has been drinking a lot of Oat milk recently? I think there is an increasing demand from consumers. Input costs would also be higher but this doesn't always reflect in the sale price within a season as the farmers have little power to pass on the costs.

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Good point, plant-based milk is big business these days.

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Carefull..only cow milk is allowed to be called milk ..

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Why?

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an opaque white fluid rich in fat and protein, secreted by female mammals for the nourishment of their young.

unless oat plants grow teets its not milk

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"secreted by female mammals for the nourishment of their young." ....unless humans are baby cows I suggest we can let Oatmilk keep its name

 

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And strawberries aren't berries. But who cares? It serves the same function as food.

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https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17152761/

 

The first authentic reference to the milky juice of the poppy we find by Theophrastus at the beginning of the third century BC.

Milk of the poppy has been used to refer to opium for thousands of years. Your definition doesn't fit with the historical meaning.

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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/17/britons-drink-plant-ba…

"One in three Britons drink plant-based milk as demand soars"

Would recommend.

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Looking forward to the "GroundSwell" Mother of all protests later this month...it wants freshwater improvement to be managed by catchment groups and rules significant natural areas and the ‘ute tax’ to be re-written or abolished because they are impractical." 

A founder of farming protest group Groundswell NZ has denied being anti-vax after he refused to participate in a DairyNZ video encouraging farmers to get the Covid-19 jab.

McKenzie said Groundswell was “definitely” not anti-vaccination, but had decided not to comment publicly to the 60,000 plus farmers that follow the group, because it was a political and emotional issue they did not want to be a part of.

?

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Interesting article from Canada on Potato "Milk". https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/what-on-earth-potato-milk-1.6169917 Alternative milks may be a threat to Dairy but there are plenty of Potato growers in NZ. So one sectors loss could be another's gain. Change brings opportunity.

 

 

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Jersey breeders will hardly notice the difference

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Slow brain day, must be the lockdown. It took me a while to get the joke.

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Perhaps read the link?...demand

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if the demand for oats are increasing then the demand for healthcare will follow.

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Why is that?

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"..downward pressures are starting to build in China."

Very late in the day, China has seen a financial crisis coming, by finally looking at the Private Debt-to-GDP ratio. The Chinese have done the same as everyone else by over-inflating their economy with debt at the expense of productivity, but have worked out what the problem is before the financial crisis hits.  So, what’s wrong with our current Global System?

 -Bank credit flows into inflating asset prices.

- That makes us think we are creating wealth from rising asset prices.

- No one takes much notice of the Private Debt building up in the economy.

- The Banking System and the markets become bound together, and as soon as asset prices even look like falling, that feeds back into the stability of the Banking System.

- Unproductive bank lending makes the economy “Boom!” even we charge headlong towards a Financial Crisis, and inevitably, an economic and social Depression.

China, is still on the edge of a financial precipice, and might still fall in - just like everyone else.

 

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(PS: From the Telegraph in London this morning:)

Households are becoming more cautious. Much of the surplus in savings accumulated during the pandemic looks set to stay in the bank, rather than being disgorged into the economy as many of us once assumed it would be….it's not a pretty picture… on the stitch in time principle alone, the Bank of England must begin to tighten policy this week. It may already be too late.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/02/stagflation-coming-cent…

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It’s a bit like falling off a tall ladder isn’t it. The falling doesn’t hurt but the landing does, and can kill. Depends really on how up it you were.

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But to keep up the facade of the omnipotence of the CCP to its people, Taiwan has to be looking like a tempting distraction. While the CCP has been negligent with respect to the risks around their management of China's economy, will they be equally so towards an invasion of Taiwan? The cost in lives, in materials and capability will be extreme, but will they acknowledge those and hold back, or do they buy into their own propaganda and believe they can do it?

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Well if they have a really evil agenda, ambition to the point of regaining the Yuan dynasty reach & territory they may well. The wholesale slaughter of civilians will be of little consequence to them as being relatively short lived. But it is also certain that the event would also have a catastrophic impact on the world’s financial market stability, which is already dire. Think how the gulf wars for example have tipped things on their head. Already the Covid pandemic has taken a devastating toll on lives, households and economies all around the world, and the CCP is completely unrepentant about that. So do you think Taiwan is stage two?

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Invading Taiwan would be a disaster for Tauwan, for China, and the world.

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what happens in countries is every time a leader is in trouble they find a war to distract from local problems, the USA are great at this process, how many meaningless wars have they got involved in so a president can get a second term,  i will be watching to see if either china or the USA ramp this up

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For Taiwan a disaster

For China a hiccup

For the world a wake up call

For the CCP - an opportunity for the old guard to hang on to power and privilege.

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I think the risk is increasing rapidly. Mao's legacy was 80 million dead, and that doesn't seem to concern them much as he is still up held as an icon. But the cost will be huge and as Hong Kong is showing they will not be able to profit from taking Taiwan. Taiwan will be destroyed if they try with very little left. The only gain will be to their ego.

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Exactly.

But we have had suicidal ego-maniac leaders scattered throughout history haven't we.

What's stopping us now?

 

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"The only gain will be to their ego."

Do not underestimate how important China view it as a means to "Save Face"

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(From CH Smith)

President Xi's view is "we can't afford to bail out Evergrande etc" because that would open the floodgates of moral hazard that he is trying to close.
The state bailing out the private-sector, and state-owned enterprises, is what led to the massive moral hazard-debt bubble that Xi is determined to pop now while he still can control the process. He understands this is the do-or-die moment to regain control of an out-of-control financial bubble, and the only way to do so is to push the losses onto everyone with exposure, the driver being the stark choice to either regain control by popping the bubble now or letting it expand and implode in an uncontrolled fashion.The consensus in the West is that China cannot afford to let its bubble pop because the pain will be so severe. Those who believe this have a poor grasp of Chinese history, especially in the 20th century.
If crashing China's bubble is the nuclear option, Xi has reason to be confident he can push the pain level to 11 and most will accept it, and those who don't will join Jack Ma in forced retirement.

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Already the Covid pandemic has taken a devastating toll on lives, households and economies all around the world, and the CCP is completely unrepentant about that. [my emphasis]

What America's 17 Intelligence Agencies Won't Say About the Origins of Covid

 

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Yes, Taiwan is stage 2.  I think after the Olympics next year Xi will start to work on a plan to get it done, before he's too old to drive it, and before they lose the advantage of Biden in office. 

My guess is they will start by planting military assets on one island after another outlying Taiwan, claim territory, snoop with subs, do flyovers and look for a provocation from Taiwan in response.  China outnumbers Taiwan in airpower 10 to 1.  Xi would be willing to give up the bulk of the navy if necessary to get it done. 

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Michael Reddell on productivity...or NZ's lack thereof....

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A good read. Thx.

"New Zealand’s productivity growth rate.... was less than it was in the 1970s. That’s the New Zealand of Key, English and Ardern"

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How do we rid ourselves of these clowns and their petty ambitions?

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Certain groups of people have been asking that question for 181 years 

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Good to read maybe - but only to see how people trained in a blind regime, peddle blindness.

Productivity per person long ago gave way to energy output per energy input. It's not the digger driver, it's the digger. And GDP is as blind, as a measure.

And 'compared to the 'OECD' should always ring alarm bells - who cares? If they're less sustainable, they will last less time. You want to compare ' income'  while ignoring 'remaining capital'? Stupidity....

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I quite agree with pdq about the chimera of "growth" in a world reaching limits of traditional energy and other physical resources, albeit that it is something of a generalization in itself.

But I think you are being a bit tough on Micharl Reddell and his comments on falling NZ productivity. Surely the fall in productivity in NZ over a long period, even in an economy relatively constrained in energy and other natural resources, must be an issue of some significance. If nothing else, it reinforces David's equally strongly expressed views on the folly of our great immigration experiment?

In NZ, & particularly Auckland, & increasingly Waikato, we see the effects of turning our backs on our few significant natural resources (rainfall & grass) plus their supporting industries, in favour of bringing in comparatively large numbers of immigrants who conglomerate around, cafes, liquor outlets, brothels and so on which certainly boost our gdp, perhaps productivity, but essentially mean an economy where we simply "take in each others washing"....all for the purpose of short term political back-patting.

(I hasten to add that immigrants also bring in skills & capital of real worth, but clearly not sufficiently to offset the less valuable aspects.)

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Mills - great reply. Actually,  almost all of us 'take in each other's washing' in energy/resource terms. All we're doing is jockeying for position in the queue at the resource/energy window; we do it by allowing other a share because we value their service to us, but when thew chips are down.......

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This is the story of exporting jobs by selling our manufacturing industries overseas, mostly to China, because the short term profit looked too good, versus having strategic goals to retain a strong industrial and manufacturing base, and building national resilience. Solid, efficient manufacturing would have kept ir increased our productivity at high levels. It also high lights the flaws in over reliance in agriculture. 

Since the 80's there have been calls to diversify away from dairy, to reduce our dependency on it, but the opposite has occurred, and that has got multiple barbs in it. Climate change is a big negative from that, plus agriculture can never provide the levels of employment or wages to support the population, so the beneficiary range of our primary export sector is actually quite narrow. 

For all their egos, our national leadership has failed us dismally in the last 50 years!

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The guy who said last year the OCR should have gone deeply negative?

No thanks.

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He is just a messenger of OECD analysis in this case, but he is also a disciple of unobserved central bank neutral/ natural interest rate nonsense.

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Adding to unease is Premier Li's acknowledgement that China’s economy faces new downward pressures.

Decoupling From ‘Inflation’ Maybe

Last night China’s NBS reported another drop in the “official” Manufacturing PMI, down to 49.2 and blamed for a whole range of factors that make it seem otherwise as if this was nothing to do with increasing global weakness. On the contrary, the trend began all the way back in April which is the same month (March inflection) which has shown up all over the world (and all over markets).

The new orders index for Chinese manufacturing continues to fall, dropping to just 48.8 in October.

Relatedly, China’s Non-manufacturing PMI declined to 52.4 in October after having only rebounded to 53.2 in September following August’s delta COVID negatives. This low level, 52.4, is among the worst in the entire series, strong evidence that weakness isn’t really about the pandemic (government reaction to delta in August only made a bad situation that much worse).

These cycles continue to repeat because there is one thing, and only one thing, common to each. The excuses (from trade wars to subprime mortgages, now COVID) come and go with every “decoupling” transition, yet there is always the one uniting factor which governs the process.

Inflation promises. Growth scare. “Unexpected” deflation.

Globally synchronized growth. Decoupling. Globally synchronized downturn.

Rinse. Repeat. Why? Because the world still thinks QE is money printing, and that inflation is the only kind of CPI.

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Good Morning fellow citizens of Jacindastan. Wish a great day for all, may the property gains rain down from above!

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May housing forever be in your favour, fellow House-Dweller.

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Email from Business Broker below  :

Of serious significance for our economy going forward was the recent annual inflation figure of 4.9%. What makes the current situation even more unique is we currently have historically low interest rates alongside high inflation. In layman’s terms, this means cash savings are currently earning record low returns of 1.0%, and when you overlay inflation of 4.9% that equates to losing 3.9% on your savings annually.

The optimal place to be during inflationary times is having a high proportion of asset holdings and riding the wave of inflation on those investments. Investing in business assets is one area that can mitigate losing net wealth in inflationary times and allows the investor to benefit from increased prices for your business's products and services. One question you want to ask yourself prior to investing in a business is how easily can you increase prices for your customer base as this will need to be monitored carefully in the current environment. What we do know is having high levels of cash savings is not a sustainable or optimal investment strategy given the current economic settings!

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I dont disagree regarding the losses due to inflation. As a business owner I have cash in the bank right now to allow for this situation we are in, the current lockdown forced me to throw in a pile of cash to get us through the 4 weeks of level 4. As a business broker I would've thought recommending liquidity wouldnt be a bad idea altogether.

As far as price rises are concerned, we are throwing the farm at it to keep the wolf from the door. There does appear to be a bit more caution in consumerlands manic spending also.

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All very well if you already hold assets. But if you don't, then buying into assets know is buying into a bubble. 

The absurdity of Tesla the poster boy of bubbles.... which the bursting of may well trigger the slaughter. 

Can't be far off now.

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Probably the same time Bitcoin explodes Rastus...tulips in all? Question, have you ever taken a drive in a Tesla?

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Crypto certainly and no doubt in tandem with Tesla. Some will remember waking up to a meltdown.  But for many it is so incomprehensible they think it cannot happen. 

History has seen this  before.

(Tesla no, fully elect Hyundai yes, quite often. No questioning the vehicle, but the valuations)

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even though tesla is overvalued, i can not see it bursting any time soon and many short sellers have lost a bundle on that bet,  the simple reason is the company is still growing and making bigger profits quarter on quarter and until that changes ie, they reach peak market share or a serious competitor comes along to challenge the share price will still grow

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..no argument about bigger profits (though largely based on enviro credits). 

The fact it it has a valuation that is beyond sanity.  You reasons such as growth and bigger profits do not account for the valuation (you forgot to mention declining market share by the way).

Tesla shares shot up to a $1 trillion valuation after the hertz announcement. Now Musk has tweeted there is no contract with hertz. More market BS use to pump a stock into fantasy levels. 

The more I read about tesla the dodgier it gets.

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Everything looks like a bubble against a collapsing currency. 
 

https://twitter.com/jasonplowery/status/1455574321506791428?s=21

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Covid Levels update.

Nothern Northland - level 3

Rest of Northland - level 2

Auckland - Level 3 - reopening step 1

Waikato - Level 3 - reopening step 2

Rest of NZ - level 2

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Covid quote of the day from our factually accurate, and "we don't need to be scared" PM

"It will come to people's doors and it will find the unvaccinated"

God, it's no wonder the 5G conspiracy nuts are having a field day. The way the PM paints the picture maybe Covid is hooked into skynet, reading your vaccination status, then scanning your address before sending out a Terminator to take you out.

I firmly believe she is doing more harm than good now. Just leave the medical stuff to Bloomfield, he is far more qualified.

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Anyone who is reading the UKHSA surveillance reports will know that the vaccinated over the age of 29 are seeing higher case numbers per 100,000 than unvaccinated. Israel cases per age cohort are the same. The two most vaccinated counties in Ireland are 1 and 2 for case increases. The widely publicized Massachusetts study saw a higher percentage of vaccinated cases than percentage of population vaccinated. Jacinda is too misinformed to know the real world is about 9 months ahead of our experience. 

In the real world people are discussing things like: does waning efficacy go negative? So after 7 months are you more susceptible to Covid being double jabbed than not? And why? What are the long term effects and efficacy of boosters? Why are a majority of cases in Canada who present to hospital within 2 weeks of being jabbed? Why is all cause mortality up in all heavily vaxxed populations? Why are those excess deaths in younger age cohorts? Why are we vaccinating the children for a disease that they shrug off? Why is nobody talking about the vaccinated being able to catch and carry SarsCov2 with viral loads similar to unvaccinated? Does a mandate for healthcare workers increase the odds of a positive asymptomatic vaccinated person showing up to work as a super spreader? 

That's what we should be asking. 

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They're not being asked because anyone who goes against the prevailing narrative risks losing their career or being labelled a lunatic. Or both.

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So I feel at this juncture of history NZ and the world will learn that if you replace brave honest inquiry with weak political expediency the consequences will be dire. 

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Care to elaborate on this newfound scrutiny of methodology that was absent until the stats began to be inconvenient? 

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We need to ask more than that to get a proper understanding. Good post though. 

We need to consider human behaviour. If the stats behind your comment re vaccinated are accurate, a question arises is that because there is a difference in behaviour between the vaxxed and unvaxxed in the study groups. In NZ (and Australia?) the unvaxxed are often demonstrating defiance, but in the UK could they be being more defensive and cautious while the vaxxed think they're safe? Peripheral influences could be having a big impact.

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I look forward to reading scientific inquiry into this conjecture 

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"It will come to people's doors and it will find the unvaccinated"

I remember Dad used to tell me a similar story about Wee Willie Winkie. Scared me shitless at the time, but god was I bitter when I found out there was nothing to fear.

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Well it's not like we always said she talks to us like 5 year olds.

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there are people walking the te araroa trail that will go from  northland level 3 to level 2 without them knowing or the cops,  it runs from ahipara across the country through the forests and pops out at kerikeri, some will be deep in the Omahuta Forest or puketi forest and not even realize they are breaking the law 

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Common sense would sugges that their risk profile will easily nulify any charges

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From the Australian Financial Review: "Exclusive - Commonwealth Bank (CBA) to add crypto to its banking app"

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Classic game theory in play. Evolve or die. 

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Talk about inflation, look at China!

China sparks fear about Taiwan tensions, food shortages after families urged to stockpile ‘daily necessities’ | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)

In the last week of October, the average price of 19 vegetable varieties tracked by the Ministry of Agriculture in 286 wholesale markets across the country rose 49.1 per cent from a year ago, and was up 13.5 per cent from the previous week.

Last month, the average wholesale price of 28 different vegetables rose 16 per cent from September, bucking the usual seasonal decline in autumn, the ministry added.

The price increases have prompted concern among economists that raw material and producer inflation is spreading to consumer products. However, there is no sign of vegetable shortages.

 

Annual inflation on vegetables sitting at 49.1%, and that's in autumn, when typically the price of vegetables fall!  That makes our 4.8% rate look very good!

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A few points

1. China is reorienting its economy and rest of world seems not to appreciate this and its impacts due to CV19 distractions 

2. Stagnation reduced demand as inflation exceeds wage increases

3.Recession was baked in 6 months ago because of this yet NZ continues to forecast growth

4. Growth itself is contraindicated to global warming as is pop rising which no one speaks about 

5. Dairy prices are rising because costs are. Not same as profits rising

6. Aus and NZ claiming same cop out (pardon pun) route to avoid doing anything about coal or cows, which is risible ideas about how much trees and soil can absorb in other countries if we pay them so we can continue misbehaving

7. Cases of CV19 are not rising as much as forecast because people are decreasingly willing to get tested, especially those least likely to be vaccinated 

8. TV no longer interested in PM press conferences unless it’s an announcement about level restrictions because it’s boring and audience is bored too. Groundhog Day 

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China is reorienting its economy and rest of world seems not to appreciate this and its impacts due to CV19 distractions.

China has clicked onto the fact the tangible things they are selling to the rest of the world are being exchanged for worthless IOU's aka fiat. They have therefore decided to move to a more balanced economy where production equals consumption. I think it is a good move by China in the long term. Even if they feel some short term pain.

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Re #6.  I've been a big critic of Boris, but really enjoyed his words at the opening day in Scotland.  I would encourage people to watch the whole thing.  I know a lot of this will be hot air, but at the end of the day he's a world leader, standing up in front of other world leaders & 100% calling it out.  There is an impending disaster, we are slowing killing our life support systems, and we are not currently doing enough to avoid it.

For our part (NZ).  We are all kidding ourselves if we believe we deserve anything close to a clean green image.  Not even close to world leading in the fight against climate change.  Our measures are akin to hardly trying, or blaming others that are larger.  We like to think ourselves as green because what? we made a bunch of anti-nuke protests in the 60's? We have lots of trees and we like camping?

Time to expect more from your leadership class aside from never ending capital gains & nice images on social media.

 

 

 

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I love how boring Bitcoin is at the $60k level!

Dot and Eth making new all time highs. Get them bags packed for Q4 and Q1 2022 <3 

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So apparently you won't be able to leave Auckland over summer if you're not vaccinated.

Imagine the queues at the border checkpoints. Best pack a lot of entertainment and treats for the kids. 

Also don't quite know how that gels with UNDHR Article 13: "Everyone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the borders of each state." ... but then again I guess we are well past bothering with any of that nonsense any more.

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