Breakfast briefing; China ignores global concerns

Business / news

Evergrande makes a last-minute payment; China mines coal at a record pace; Eurozone to grow faster; Australian unemployment jumps; UST 10yr 1.57%, oil lower and gold higher; NZ$1 = 70.3 USc; TWI-5 = 74.5

12th Nov 21, 7:25am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news China is essentially ignoring COP26, responding to immediate pressures - not the least of which is crowning Xi as an effective emperor.

But first, it is Veterans Day in the United States and that is a Federal holiday. Equity markets are open but not their bond markets. US Government offices are closed and that means the usual flow of economic data releases there are very light.

It is a break that will give the Fed policy makers time to reflect on their oft-repeated claim that the current bout of inflation will be "transitory". They first made the claim in April, suggesting that the building pressures would dissipate by Christmas. Clearly that isn't happening. Perhaps they need to change their tune. Markets sense they will.

In the US it is becoming clear that this year, the 'specials' on offer for the retail events 'Black Friday' and 'Cyber Monday' aren't going to be the discounts - they are going to be that there is something to buy. The supply chain issues are seriously crimping availability.

In China, Evergrande did make those late interest payments we mentioned yesterday. A German investor filed proceedings, but now they are paid that probably pushes the default risk back somewhat. But other Chinese property developers face the same pressures, the latest Kaisa.

Chinese property developers’ fundraising slumped at the fastest pace this year in October, even after the government urged financial institutions to meet the real estate sector’s "reasonable funding needs". But their banks are providing more funds for mortgages, and that saw an uptick in residential real estate demand in October, perhaps a lifeline for those developers.

It is also clear that China isn't signing up to restrictions on its use of coal, despite its 'deal' with the US at COP26. Their shortage of coal to meet current demand has global implications. Urea is a byproduct and a key fertiliser in India. And other byproducts include diesel ingredients used for trucking, in South Korea for example. Locally they mined 12 mln tonnes yesterday, a new daily record.

New forecasts from the ECB for EU policy makers claim their economies are expected to grow at a faster +5% this year, compared to the +4.8% forecasted in July. But the Eurozone will likely expand a slower 4.3% in 2022 (vs 4.5% in the July forecast) and 2.4% in 2023.

In the world of shipping, there was little change last week in the cost of shipping containers by sea. The Baltic Dry Index has also stopped falling.

But the iron ore price has sunk further, however in the long perspective only back to April 2020 levels. Still it will hurt Australia, shaving AU$3 bln of tax revenues there.

The Australian unemployment rate jumped way more than expected yesterday. Employment dropped by -46,000 in October when a +50,000 rise was expected. Most of the jobs lost were full-time jobs, bringing to more than -326,000 the number of jobs lost during lockdowns in NSW, Victoria and Canberra. Their jobless rate went from 4.6% to 5.2%.

In Australia Delta cases in Victoria have risen as 1313 cases were reported there yesterday. There are now 15,675 active cases in the state (an increase) and there were another 4 deaths yesterday. In NSW there were another 261 new community cases reported yesterday with 2,779 active locally acquired cases, and they had another one death yesterday. Queensland is reporting three new cases. The ACT has 9 new cases. Overall in Australia, just under 82% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 8% have now had one shot so far.

The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.57% and up +2 bps since this time yesterday. The US 2-10 rate curve starts today marginally steeper again at +105 bps. And their 1-5 curve is also steeper and at +106 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is much steeper at +151 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is unchanged at 1.82%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +2 bps at 2.95%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is up +9 bps at 2.63%.

In equity markets, Wall Street has started their holiday Thursday session with a +0.2% rise in the S&P500. Overnight, European markets were positive by mixed again, with Frankfurt up 0.1% and London up another +0.6%. Yesterday, Tokyo recovered +0.6%, Hong Kong rose +1.0% and Shanghai recovered +1.2%. The ASX200 ended -0.6% lower, and the NZX50 ended pretty much unchanged.

The price of gold will start today up +US$8 to US$1862/oz and to a 5 month high.

And oil prices are softer by about -US$1.50 and are now at just over US$79.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$81.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar opens today giving up more it its recent gains and is back to 70.3 USc with more than a -½c fall. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at 96.3 AUc. Against the euro we are softish at 61.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 74.5.

The bitcoin price has slipped back from its record high level and is now at US$65,135 and a -5.1% retreat from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has very high at just over +/-4.5%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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74 Comments

by murray86 | 12th Nov 21, 7:36am 1636655787

Is it just me, or do others also think the Chinese Property Developers are looking more and more like they are running a ponzi? At the last possible minute Evergrande made it's interest payments, but David also identifies that their fundraising "slumped at the fastest pace this year". So they are raising money from investors to make interest payments? Walks like a duck.......

by Audaxes | 12th Nov 21, 8:27am 1636658840

Is the stock market a Ponzi Scheme?

by murray86 | 12th Nov 21, 8:49am 1636660176

It's certainly obvious that parts of the share market is very much emotionally driven, and parts are also strongly manipulated by some big players, that certainly smacks of ponzi like behaviour. That is what the Reddit groups are attacking. But at the same time it is possible to invest in some companies that are not strongly manipulated.

by MLSmith1 | 12th Nov 21, 10:22am 1636665743

Would not the infidels be sought-out and punished!

by bw | 12th Nov 21, 8:29am 1636658995

And not just onshore; inside China. A whole World of property development (and colonisation?) depends on these companies. e.g. London

Nine Elms feels more like one of provincial China’s obscure metropolises than a high-end development within walking distance of the mother of parliaments....a sign of how keen Beijing is to keep the show on the road, the company and CC Land have secured £430m of fresh loans from a club of lenders, including a Chinese state-backed bank, so that it can complete the first phase of construction at Nine Elms....an ugly ghost town of half-empty tower blocks ...in a densely packed cluster that gives a crushing sense of claustrophobia from street level and the 40th floor.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/11/boriss-ugly-ghost-town-…

by HouseMouse | 12th Nov 21, 11:45am 1636670749

There's several very large land banked sites in Auckland, owned by Chinese interests, with grandiose, pretty plans of thousands of apartments.

For example, one in St John's, next to Colin Maiden Park, and another in central New Lynn.

All smoke and mirrors.

by company of heroes | 12th Nov 21, 9:20am 1636662012

I think it's the positive sign that Xi saw in APEC summit about China US relationship. Biden's slowly reversing Trump's policies and rebuilding China US relationship encourage them to continue to run this Ponzi. Here is the thing for running property ponzi, you've got to keep injecting money into it. China's way is through large amount of export earnings from other countries. Now they see the sign, they have more confident to keep it running.

by muzled | 12th Nov 21, 7:44am 1636656243

Wow, that coal link is incredible!

We really don't understand how screwed we are do we.

China Securities Network (Reporter Liu Liliang) The National Development and Reform Commission reported on November 11 that as the measures to increase coal production and supply continue to take effect, the high-quality coal production capacity is further released. After the cold wave, national coal production quickly recovered and increased rapidly. On November 10, the daily output of coal dispatch reached 12.05 million tons, a record high, an increase of 120,000 tons from the previous peak.

by murray86 | 12th Nov 21, 7:53am 1636656818

Spiceeh made this comment in yesterday's comment stream and it is so true .."it doesn't matter how much we know about how to fix our problems, unless we 'fix' the rich preventing us fixing them." The only change to be made; add in "and powerful" after the word "rich".

James Shaw, arriving late at COP26 and stroking his ego telling the world what NZ will do not only missed the boat, but seems to be utterly ignoring the point that no matter what we do, unless China, the US, Russia and Europe make very big changes, nothing we do will make one jot of difference in the outcomes.

by Foxglove. | 12th Nov 21, 8:01am 1636657281

Using my father’s jargon (learnt from WW2 Pacific marines) NZ is farting at thunder!

by General Comment | 12th Nov 21, 8:15am 1636658114

Agreed, but we also must bear in mind they are following current practice in order to support industries making products consumed by those nations that are sitting back tut-tutting at them.

by Audaxes | 12th Nov 21, 8:39am 1636659586

Indeed:

China is currently the largest carbon emitter. But morally, China doesn't owe anything to the UN's climate actions. First of all, as a country with the largest population in the world, China's historical emissions were small. With its modernization drive, China will inevitably see a peak period of carbon emissions. This is a necessary guarantee for Chinese people's human rights. Second, China is the world's factory. Many of the high-carbon products used in the West are manufactured in China. China's carbon consumption is also the world's consumption. Link

by murray86 | 12th Nov 21, 8:44am 1636659891

True, and I saw JAs comment in the media from her video meeting, about supply chains being stressed. It annoyed me at the time because to me at least, the obvious inference is that the government should be considering what they can do to reduce dependence on vulnerable supply chains. Add in the tensions with China over it's strategic aspirations, and those supply chains could become more than just stressed!

But China could be concerned that a big commitment away from fossil fuels could significantly increase the cost of many of the goods it currently manufactures, to the point that it reaches the threshold were it is cheaper to make them in the country of consumption. Good for workers everywhere but China. A consequential impact of that that would need to be considered, is what threshold is required for China to act militarily on those strategic aspirations? On one level it may be cheaper to let China continue, but that will screw the planet and everyone, but war may threaten survival anyway - so what price survival?

by blobbles | 12th Nov 21, 10:21am 1636665699

For the millionth time, of course it will make a difference if we lead, because we can apply political pressure. That's how international agreements work. Please understand tragedy of the commons. Also we will be held up by big players like China and India as examples why they shouldn't do anything - "Look at NZ, they are a developed nation doing nothing, therefore we can do nothing too because we are a developing nation!".

What we don't want to do is be a laggard, as it is likely we will start attracting all sorts of issues, including restrictions to our exports. Add to this the fact we will need to spend billions of dollars per year in the not too distant future buying carbon credits that appear to have ever increasing prices and we will be in trouble.

by murray86 | 12th Nov 21, 10:32am 1636666341

It's not about doing nothing Blobbles, it's about being realistic. My perception is that Shaw, and likely the Government are not being pragmatic about this. I suggest that making a big issue about the need for the big countries to do the heavy lifting, as they are the heavy polluters, is required.

Again, no matter what we do it will have no net effect. Being able to stand on a dais and claim holier than thou will not save us. Those countries at the end of the day don't care one jot about what we do so long as it doesn't impact on them, and this is where the diplomatic pressure can be used.

by blobbles | 12th Nov 21, 10:54am 1636667640

Coool, so you have no idea how international politics works then, nor these sorts of agreements.

It's worth repeating. If we do nothing, and China/India holds us up as an example of why they should do less (or nothing), then we have directly contributed to China/India doing less than is required.

Your utilitarian viewpoint of "even if we were completely carbon neutral it wouldn't make a difference" is accurate from the perspective of what is happening right now. But it does not even begin to take into account the politics involved about planning the future, which is what these agreements are built on. Displaying your ignorance of this by repeating what we already know to be true right now, shows a severe lack of understanding of the complexity of the issue going forward.

by HouseMouse | 12th Nov 21, 11:48am 1636670915

100% right.

And the cumulative effect of each small to medium sized country not doing anything (because, they argue, of themself they are insignificant) , could be quite significant.

by murray86 | 12th Nov 21, 12:58pm 1636675088

Surely Blobbles, if we have enough clout to be held as an example for doing nothing ( and I have never advocated doing nothing) then we have enough clout to be able to lean on them diplomatically to do more?

by blobbles | 12th Nov 21, 3:26pm 1636684001

Not at all. In international politics, normal/expected behaviour is rarely praised. Bad behaviour however is scorned mercilessly by non allies and often held up as examples of why others should not act. For instance, if you are exposed to Chinese press, you will note that they scorn the USA mercilessly for war crimes, Guantanamo Bay and gun violence as examples of the US's human rights violations, when the US brings up the Xinjiang issue. The Chinese hold up Australia all the time in meetings regarding climate change as a developed country that avoids their obligations, allowing China to get away with not upholding theirs (or setting lower standards). Australia are around 1% of emissions...

In politics, every little bit of political pressure helps, often because big countries waver around their obligations because it's harder for them to change. If we as a small country cannot change and show them a path, that's on us, not on them.

Examples of us not doing anything:

Where's the mass rollout of supplementary seaweed feed to lower our cow methane emissions (which is already happening in other countries and has been known for 5 years or so)
Where's our mass subsidisation of solar panels/batteries for houses and changes to the electrical grid to support them? (which is already happening in many other countries)
Why on earth haven't we built the biggest wind farm in the country in the Wairarapa (already fully consented), which would enable us to emit less carbon? Or the dozen others that are fully consented which would also help? (mass windfarm builds are happening in almost every other country, including China). Or investment in new hydro dams in central NZs already denuded areas (Tararuas, Clarence River, plus quite a few others)
Where's our leadership in reversing biodiversity loss when we are recognised as one of the worst in the world (see stuff's excellent recent series on this)
Moving to more regenerative farming practices to enable our soil to uptake a lot more carbon than it is

Sorting out the above are fully achievable things that would make us a climate leader, if we did them all and they would knock out well over half of our emissions. Instead we do nothing and drag the bigger countries down with us as they justify why they don't have to do anything as well.

by MLSmith1 | 12th Nov 21, 1:35pm 1636677311

The fact of the matter is US, China, India etc. will not give a flying F if we or any other wokey/tokey/tinpot nation adopt policies to placate the climatic/dramatic crowds.. ITS MONEY AND POWER that matters! They survive and live by the sword... x years hence doesn't matter to many. That my friends is the nature of politics (the ones that survive and hold power)

by paashaas | 12th Nov 21, 10:46am 1636667160

That "political pressure" of yours is working a treat with China , is it not ?

If yourself and the rest of you "green" nitwits enjoy being played so be it , just leave the rest of us out of it.

by muzled | 12th Nov 21, 10:54am 1636667648

Don't worry paashaas, the climate doesn't care whether you agree or not, it's just gonna do what it's gonna do, and that's change it for us all.

But you keep your 1950's thinking going with your head in the sand and your caboose pointing skyward...

by blobbles | 12th Nov 21, 10:56am 1636667809

It's fine to be left out of it and let more intelligent people to take the lead, we do that all the time in life. However unless you are planning to leave the biosphere in the near future, then you may want to admit we have a problem that we have to deal with.

by paashaas | 12th Nov 21, 11:22am 1636669320

Like many of your kind you have a very much exaggerated notion of your own intelligence.

The climate is changing - but rather slower than the non-stop fearmongering suggests. We should be planning , preparing and taking measures. Killing our economies while posturing on international stage contributes nothing to that.

by blobbles | 12th Nov 21, 11:34am 1636670093

As you clearly know everything, including myself and how intelligent I am, we should obviously let you decide all science and international policy related matters. Ego much?

by paashaas | 12th Nov 21, 11:38am 1636670339

Haha .. you are the one claiming to be more intelligent etc. etc. - without knowing anything about me - not even a nice try at turning this around .

Nor did I say I should decide - it is you claiming to take the lead etc. etc. - the presumptions are all yours.

by blobbles | 12th Nov 21, 11:55am 1636671317

Really?

"The climate is changing - but rather slower than the non-stop fearmongering suggests." - latest IPCC report suggests exactly the opposite.

"We should be planning , preparing and taking measures." - we are, but it's not enough, not fast enough and not to the degree we need.

"Killing our economies while posturing on international stage contributes nothing to that. " - economies require a functional, stable biosphere. As the economy is based inside the environment which does not end at country borders. Therefore international agreements must be made so jurisdictions are able to plan appropriately for their people. This is how things work, for reference see the Montreal Protocol.

Your comment suggests you know much better than the thousands of experts who are suggesting different results from their studies and therefore conclude that a different action to yours must be taken. At no point did I suggest that it was myself that was more intelligent than anyone else, suggest you learn to read, it's obviously not a strong point.

by paashaas | 12th Nov 21, 12:11pm 1636672299

You can write many pages more on how it all "works" .

Meanwhile China is increasing it coal production - which was my point to start with . None of your longwinded writing addresses that and nor it can.

by blobbles | 12th Nov 21, 12:16pm 1636672567

"None of your longwinded writing addresses that"

It's a complex problem, requiring complex solutions, which require big words with long explanations. What's your simple solution?

by Noncents | 12th Nov 21, 1:58pm 1636678682

What's your simple solution?

It's incredibly simple. Stop buying sh!t you don't need. But no-one wants to do that.

by blobbles | 12th Nov 21, 12:13pm 1636672412

"Like many of your kind..." - presumption.

"claiming to be more intelligent" - presumption.

"rest of you "green" nitwits" - presumption.

"enjoy being played" - presumption.

Maybe learn what a presumption is too?

I suggested you should be interested in fixing a problem, that is recognised by almost every scientist that looks into it, as you are part of the biosphere. Or not, if you have a plan to leave the biosphere.

by Lapun | 12th Nov 21, 3:10pm 1636683052

I don't have numbers but my guess is China, the US, Russia and Europe might even half their greenhouse emissions and do so fairly quickly (I'm not saying it is remotely likely but it might happen) however put India and Africa's per capita emissions to the level of say half NZ's and we are doomed. You cannot stop the developing world develop; they will insist on cars, fridges, air conditioners, etc.

by blobbles | 12th Nov 21, 3:24pm 1636683862

Exactly. So we have to show them that if they want those things, they are fully achievable to get, you just have to grow your green energy industries to handle them, unless you want the world to burn. But if small, adaptable, developed countries like NZ can't show a good path, they will just follow the same ones we have to get where we are. And then it's all over for everyone.

by brisket | 12th Nov 21, 7:49am 1636656557

The Chinese RE thing is really not just Evergrande. There are a slew of other companies now hitting the skids in the same way - not surprising. It’s also unclear that the EG bond payments actually came through, some investors are still claiming not.

by HouseMouse | 12th Nov 21, 11:50am 1636671052

_contagion.

_{even if it doesn't become a full-blown financial crisis, its ramifications for the Chinese economy will nonetheless be significant.}

by ozzzy2 | 12th Nov 21, 4:03pm 1636686190

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/mystery-of-china-s-h…

extract;

"Unprecedented trade surpluses and record inflows into its bond market are giving China a stockpile of dollars unseen since the days when the ‘Asian savings glut’ was blamed for keeping U.S. interest rates excessively low and fueling the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

But unlike then, when China aggressively recycled its dollar holdings into U.S. Treasuries, China’s giant pile of foreign exchange reserves are holding broadly stable. That means the dollars are being funneled somewhere else, but exactly where is proving to be a bit of a mystery"

by Carinaz | 12th Nov 21, 7:59am 1636657197

"It is a break that will give the Fed policy makers time to reflect on their oft-repeated claim that the current bout of inflation will be "transitory". They first made the claim in April, suggesting that the building pressures would dissipate by Christmas. Clearly that isn't happening. Perhaps they need to change their tune. Markets sense they will."

It is clear :

Transitory was a ploy to deflect and avoid questions.

secondly it was suppose to ease by Christmas and are suppose to change their tune... NOT VERY HARD...SIMPLE... change the goal post / Transitory to next year and who can argue it.

Whatever Fed says or comes with justification, same will be parroted by RBNZ....do we need people in rbnz as can hire one to just copy paste.

by Audaxes | 12th Nov 21, 8:19am 1636658382

It is also clear that China isn't signing up to restrictions on its use of coal, despite its 'deal' with the US at COP26. Their shortage of coal to meet current demand has global implications.

Major coal-using countries, including Canada, Poland, South Korea, Ukraine, Indonesia and Vietnam, will phase out their use of coal for electricity generation, with the bigger economies doing so in the 2030s, and smaller economies doing so in the 2040s.

However, some of the world’s biggest coal-dependent economies, including Australia, China, India and the US were missing from the deal, and experts and campaigners told the Guardian the phase-out deadlines countries signed up to were much too late. Link

by Advisor | 12th Nov 21, 9:27am 1636662457

Funny how the world's three most populous countries with the most to lose from climate change are ignoring the big, bold writing on the wall.

And some still argue humans to be rational beings!

by Audaxes | 12th Nov 21, 8:44am 1636659898

Good Morning from #Germany which risks becoming the Eurozone’s economic laggard. GDP forecasts keep falling as econ recovery stumbles w/Covid cases hit a record high. German govt's panel of econ advisers cut its 2021 growth prediction to 2.7%, the latest in series of downgrades. Link

by younger than most | 12th Nov 21, 9:09am 1636661376

Feeling misled yet ...?

So whole truth is part truth.... right

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-ministry-of-healt…;

"Anyone who died with of other conditions with covid is included in the figures. .

by murray86 | 12th Nov 21, 9:35am 1636662913

Co-morbitities have always been an issue in health care, complicating treatment significantly. There is an old statement, clearly tongue in cheek that goes "the treatment was successful, unfortunately the patient died".

The question is where a person has compromised health, maybe a heart issue or blocked arteries or something else, and then they catch another disease, COVID for example and the additional load kills them. Did they die of COVID or the underlying health condition? Without either they could survive, but the combined load was too much.

Anti-vaxers, COVID conspiracy theorists will tilt their argument one way, others the other. But in the end for most at least, it will be the loading from COVID which in the end caused them to die.

by younger than most | 12th Nov 21, 9:56am 1636664166

Whoosh, over Murray's head

No distorted motivations here on anyone's behalf...

Yes, the key thing is to get covid included on your death certificate for the kudos

by Rosenstein | 12th Nov 21, 10:16am 1636665395

It wasn't the blood loss from the gunshot wound that killed him, it was the viral load discovered through a PCR test with Ct of 35 to 40.

by murray86 | 12th Nov 21, 10:21am 1636665717

I assume you refer to the chap found shot in New Lynn? I was curious as to why they tested him, but these days it may just be standard protocol. It was clearly a surprise to everyone to find out he was positive, but I'm pretty sure you'll find the cause of death is still the gunshot.

by Rosenstein | 12th Nov 21, 10:47am 1636667244

But as per WHO he goes in the official Covid death tally. Which is insane.

by sparrow | 12th Nov 21, 11:24am 1636669483

It's been referred to the Coroner is my understanding.

by Rosenstein | 12th Nov 21, 12:10pm 1636672203

It's been officially added to the national Covid tally AND referred to the coroner. In. SANE.

by murray86 | 12th Nov 21, 10:18am 1636665513

Not over my head at all. I just understand the complexities of the argument. Perhaps you don't and want to bend it in another direction?

In effect it is to an extent a chicken and egg debate. But I have discussed the co-morbidity issue at length with Doctors and it remains a factor for many people. COVID will potentially be the straw which breaks the camels back and kills lot more.

by younger than most | 12th Nov 21, 11:41am 1636670468

Given you are in such a hurry to get PERFECTLY HEALTHY kids jabbed Murray, you are now officially in ministry of truth territory ...

Incidentally

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4340862

Taiwan blocks second dose for teens because of myocarditis concerns....

But I thought the trials were done Murray?

by Rosenstein | 12th Nov 21, 12:12pm 1636672320

Even with Tromethamine added to the kids vax?

by murray86 | 12th Nov 21, 12:35pm 1636673724

When and where did kids come into this debate?

I've not expressed an opinion on that.

by younger than most | 12th Nov 21, 12:47pm 1636674454

Sorry must be a different Murray86 that's been commenting on the necessity of getting kids jabbed first

by murray86 | 12th Nov 21, 1:02pm 1636675343

I said the young, not kids. There is a difference and I explained it.

The initial focus was to get the elderly and vulnerable vaccinated, but as has been evidenced it is the people who are going out and partying, socialising, the under 40s, who would be and are spreading it. The 'young', because that would slow or stop the spread.

by younger than most | 12th Nov 21, 2:07pm 1636679230

Keep digging Murray... you definitely should apply for a ministry of health spokesman gig

by donny11 | 12th Nov 21, 11:09am 1636668564

"Anti-vaxers, COVID conspiracy theorists will tilt their argument one way, others the other. But in the end for most at least, it will be the loading from COVID which in the end caused them to die."

I see your point. But I disagree. In this circumstance there were multiple factors that lead to this death it is as simple as that. So the cause of death should be listed as covid + comorbidity 1 + comorbidity 2. Whether or not you consider this a covid death depends on how your definition of Covid death.

As a conspiracy theorist (as you like to call us) what I have a problem with is that the government/media seams to not be particularly transparent on the comorbidity factor. People that have died from Covid are generally portrayed as dying exclusively from Covid. This was certainly the case up until very recently. Comorbidities are suddenly only being discussed only if the person who died is vaccinated which seams shady as hell to me. As vaccination status should not influence how we record covid deaths in any way, shape or form.

by murray86 | 12th Nov 21, 12:41pm 1636674070

Donny I agree with you that the media are lacking some transparency here, and possibly the Ministry too. I also agree with Rosenstein above that it is nuts to add the chap who got shot in his driveway and died, but was later found to be positive with COVID to the COVID death stats. That is dishonest. I doubt that having COVID impacted on a hospital being able to treat him for his gunshot wound.

Co-morbidities add complexity to the question, and there are certainly times when it can be difficult to determine the exact cause of death, but if comorbidity is a factor then I suggest it should always be disclosed.

by Carlos67 | 12th Nov 21, 1:53pm 1636678406

No its really simple the guy that got shot died of Covid plain and simple the number 1 comorbidity included lead poisoning.

by chebbo | 12th Nov 21, 10:06am 1636664799

This is how COVID-19 deaths are recorded (more or less) worldwide, and has always been the case. If the person either has COVID-19, or has symptoms consistent with COVID-19 at the time of death, then it goes down as a COVID-19 death regardless of the underlying cause.

The Ministry of Health follows Australian Bureau of Statistics guidelines for classifying a death as being from COVID-19, which states that COVID-19 "should be recorded on the medical cause of death certificate for ALL decedents where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death".

There was a rest home case last week where the family is asking questions as to why it was not registered as a COVID-19 death, when the patient was positive for COVID-19, and died from complications consistent with it. This death should absolutely have gone down as a COVID-19 death, and according to the MoH's own guidelines, probably should have even if the patient had not tested positive beforehand.

by Hamish | 12th Nov 21, 10:23am 1636665811

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/11/six-healthy-children-died-c…

by Sess | 12th Nov 21, 11:16am 1636669014

oops , looks like a dead end. literally. article gone....

by younger than most | 12th Nov 21, 11:20am 1636669237

Sorry... looks like we got too close to the truth briefly there...

by Adam B NZ | 12th Nov 21, 9:25am 1636662324

That "German investor" hasn't been paid though?

by Let me be Frank | 12th Nov 21, 9:46am 1636663573

They claim not....curious that there is no "official' release or comment from relevant parties.

"So has DMSA seen any coupon payments yet on its bonds?

It says it has not.

“Although some mainstream media outlets such as Bloomberg LP and Reuters reported that Evergrande had made its bond payments in the last few minutes, DMSA, as a public bondholder, has not yet received any payments, resulting in Evergrande’s default,” said Metzler.

“Therefore, we will now take legal action against Evergrande and file for bankruptcy.”

DMSA has issued an official statement confirming the bankruptcy proceedings."

https://www.asiamarkets.com/evergrande-bond-payments-again-sugar-coated…

by Tom Joad | 12th Nov 21, 10:24am 1636665864

This is as clear as mud.

One would have thought EG would be trumpeting payment if ALL bondholders had been paid. Seems there's a constant whip round for loose change!

Scroll to the bottom of the article linked to - an awful lot of coupon payments due before the end of the year spells trouble ahead.

by Let me be Frank | 12th Nov 21, 10:32am 1636666349

Indeed....the damage is already done and time is being played for.....and those are only Evergrande's coupons.

by CWBW | 12th Nov 21, 10:36am 1636666576

Looks like there isn't a Lehman Bros moment- people hoping for a contagious global real estate crash must had been disappointed.

The countries that skipped the self-imposed climate change delusion will be the most prosperous nations in the coming decade. Beggar thy neighbour hasn't been easier especially when your neighbour swears by the green bible.

by Carlos67 | 12th Nov 21, 10:39am 1636666795

COP26 was a waste of time. China is not going to quit coal anytime soon. The only way we could put pressure on them is if they had to import it all. If China is not going to slow down on emissions then neither is the USA because they are in a struggle for world domination and energy is a key factor. So then your left with about 25% of the "Rest of the World" trying to make a difference and even if everyone else dropped to zero we are still stuffed.

by younger than most | 12th Nov 21, 11:17am 1636669078

Where do you think the stuff YOU consume comes from?

Fossil fuels!!!!!!

It was always a waste of time

No point blaming China for your consumption

by younger than most | 12th Nov 21, 11:26am 1636669616

Excellent news

Mandatory vaccines fall within the bill of rights...

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/126931324/mandate-to-get-covid19-v…

Now where did I put that euthanasia legislation..

by Zen20 | 12th Nov 21, 11:48am 1636670927

We're all gonna die

by younger than most | 12th Nov 21, 12:56pm 1636675007

Feeling uncomfortable yet????

The Police state is here.... excellent!!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-schools-can-call-…

by murray86 | 12th Nov 21, 1:15pm 1636676120

It's not really. It is a national health order. Just like a normal law. We have always been able to call the Police if someone breaks the law.

by younger than most | 12th Nov 21, 2:05pm 1636679132

Teachers turning up to schools they have taught at for years.... yes sounds criminal

Course, it's fine today. Just not Tuesday