Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. (ASB's 4.15% two year rate remains unchallenged.)
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Both ASB and BNZ have raised TD rates. ASB raised there by between +5 bps and +40 bps. BNZ raised theirs between +5 bps and +20 bps. But the net result is that in the sweet spot between 3 months and 18 months, BNZ has offer rates generally higher than ASB.
UNDERWHELMING AT THE FACTOY LEVEL
The BNZ-BusinessNZ PMI survey showed that the factory expansion of October slowed sharply in November, and that sector is barely expanding now. Even the jobs component has lost it shine.
SPENDING STAYS UP
Electronic card spending in November as a proxy for core retail spending levels rose by +9.6% in November from October (+11.7% actual). That was stronger than expected and adds to the picture of resilient spending appetites as we head into the holiday shopping season. On a year-on-year basis, core retail spending measured this way is up +2.4%.
PRIVATE SECTOR SUPPORT ENDING
The Government has signaled that it is moving away from the broad based economic supports provided under the Alert Level system. It announced a Transition Payment that is available for affected businesses to support their move to the COVID Protection Framework. But that will wind down at some point.
ACC LEVY CHANGES
At the same time, it has modified its 2022 ACC levies, some up, some unchanged, some down.
BITING HARDER
Japanese producer prices rose more than expected in November, adding to background global costs. At an annual rise of 9.0%, and a monthly rise of +1.4%, that puts them at a 40 year high, and a very uncomfortable position for their manufacturers.
LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In Australia, pandemic cases in Victoria jumped to 1203 reported today. There are now 11,145 active cases in the state - and there were another 2 deaths today. In NSW there were another 516 new community cases reported today, another jump, with 3,683 active locally acquired cases, and no deaths. Queensland is reporting 9 new cases, especially on the Gold Coast. The ACT has 6 new cases. Overall in Australia, just under 89% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus a bit over 4% have now had one shot so far. In contrast, there were five cases in New Zealand at the border, and 95 new community cases today. Now 88.6% are double vaxxed, 93.7% of Kiwis nationally aged 12+ have had at least one vaccination, and the equivalent Australian rate is now at 93.1% of all aged 16+ (92.2% ages 12+).
GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trading, gold is at US$1779/oz and +US$2 higher than this time yesterday, and +US$4 higher than the close on Wall Street.
EQUITIES SOFTEN AT WEEK'S END
On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended down -0.7% in their Thursday trading stunting their weekly advance to +1.7% so far. Tokyo has opened down -0.5% and heading for a +1.8% weekly gain. Hong Kong has given up -0.2 in early trade but is heading for a +3.3% weekly gain. Shanghai is down -0.3% in early trade, heading for a +1.3% weekly rise. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in their early afternoon trade today and heading for a weekly rise of +1.5%, while the NZX50 is down -0.1% in late trade but is only looking at a weekly rise of +0.6%.
SWAP & BONDS RATES LOWER & FLATTER
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. There is likely to be a flattening today. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 0.89%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is now at 1.64% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The China Govt 10yr is at 2.87% and unchanged. The New Zealand Govt 10 year rate is now at 2.41% and lower, and still below the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.46% (-1 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.49% and marginally firmer.
NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is now at 68 USc and a little firmer from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are marginally softer at 95.1 AUc. Against the euro we are firmish at 60.2 euro cents. The TWI-5 is little-changed at 72.6.
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BITCOIN SLIPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price has slipped to US$48,445 and -4.0% below the level at this time yesterday. Volatility since this time yesterday has been moderate at just on +/- 3.3%.
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26 Comments
yeah you sort of look at them now, but still dont want to take one.........On a side note the lows of politics seen yesterday by ACT. I dont see any excuse for supporting future cigarette sales, disgraceful really. First they grabbed the gun nutters, and now the smokers. The lowest of the low.
Act sees a valuable vote support base amongst migrant owned businesses (particularly the likes of bottle stores and dairies). Issues such as law and order and ready access to large volumes of migrant labour are key policies. The support for cigarette sales is not surprising given dairies depend enormously on them to remain viable.
There is a reasonably coherent ideology here, if you agree with it or not. I can't see any libertarian wanting to just start banning things people are using, this is just taking the opportunity to promote the upside. Are you suggesting ACT would support these policies if not for the votes?
the original predicted date was 28th November -- and has drifted since -- Northland was originally a late december date and i think its nearly March now -- and in reality unlikely much before winter if at all -- perhaps they should just be moved back to Alert L3 -- and a hard border put above Auckland to keep Northlanders out .... everyone might be happy then ? of course we are still following the DG advice arent we .....
well if they were serious about wellbeing they would -- after all -- its the root of most of the domestic and other violence in this country -- way more alcohol than drug addicts -- huge economic costs in lost productivity -- much more harm to our society than smoking or drugs -- far greater cost to our health service -- but as you say - older white middle class drug of choice !!
In 2020, alcohol contributed $1.193 billion of government revenue in the form of excise tax.
In contrast, alcohol misuse is estimated to cost New Zealand society $7.85 billion each year. This includes costs resulting from lost productivity, unemployment, as well as justice, health, ACC, welfare costs, etc.
Costs of alcohol harm exceed that of other drug harm.
Google told employees at a virtual all-hands meeting Tuesday that it will not be adjusting workers' pay to match inflation. In other words, Google's rank and file will be effectively earning less, even while the company has thrived, achieving record profits for five consecutive quarters
shorturl.at/myS06
Quoting Jeff Booth:
"Productivity growth in an information age is negative GDP. Creating inflation against that fact is the biggest theft of our time. (both literally and figuratively)."
Basically, productivity gains in a world focused on technology and information = negative GDP. Massive consequences to economies like NZ built on credit that needs to grow forever to "try" to pay it all back.
Buy the Dip!
As of Monday, sales by insiders are up 30% from 2020 to $69 billion, and up 79% versus a 10-year average. The selling is likely to increase even more, as December is often an active month for sales...
and
Markets awash with Central Bank money have spawned the mother of all bull runs ... It has spurred fears of a bubble in valuations which, depending on who you ask, may already have burst....some measures are setting alarms ringing on trading floors....The real earnings yield on the S&P 500 is at -2.9pc, the lowest since 1947.....Each of the last four times the real earnings yield fell into negative territory, a market crash followed: the post-WW2 slump, the 1970s stagflation phase, the ‘Volcker shock’ of the 1980s, and the dotcom crash....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/10/fears-market-sell-off-r…
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