Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
BNZ has raised some key term deposit rates today from 6 to 9 months. Basically they are matching ANZ for those terms.
MINOR COMPENSATION
Investors defrauded in the Ross Asset Management ponzi have had a minor 'victory' from a High Court decision. But a smaller group of 555 'investors' will receive approximately four times as much for each dollar invested as the larger group. The larger group has been fighting for a rebalancing but is left with this decision.
LAST HURRAH?
Overall mortgage lending by banks rose by +$2.3 bln in November from October (C5), and similar to the prior month's rise. Mortgage lending books are now +11% higher than a year ago. But now with the restrictive CCCFA measures in place, home buyers are likely facing a credit crunch in coming months from here. Selling houses will be very much harder to find qualified buyers.
REGAINING MOMENTUM
Bank lending to businesses is rising much faster now, up +$1.1 bln in one month and +5.6% higher in a year. This rise is reminiscent of the pre-pandemic growth. But the total lending to business hasn't yet recovered all the run-down (in demand). (C5)
TD's ARE BACK?
Overall bank deposits rose +$4.3 bln in November from October, continuing the solid rises over the past three months. (S40) Households contributed +$1.6 bln of that growth. $1.0 bln was the growth in transaction accounts, savings accounts didn't grow at all in November, and there was a surprising +$0.6 bln rise in term deposit balances, the largest rise since May 2019 and well before than pandemic.
DE-RISKING RURAL EXPOSURES
It was another month of reduced lending to the rural sector, taking the decline to 20 of the past 22 months (C5). Banks have reduced their exposure to the rural sector to levels last seen in June 2018 and by nearly-$2 bln when it peaked in July 2019.
LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In Australia, 1980 pandemic cases in Victoria were reported today. There are now 14,801 active cases in the state - but there were another 10 deaths today. In NSW there were 5715 new community cases reported today, and another huge jump, with 27,093 active locally-acquired cases, but only 1 more death. However the number of Covid patients in their ICUs is rising faster now. Queensland is reporting 184 new cases. The ACT has 85 new cases. Overall in Australia, 89.7% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 3.4% have now had one shot so far. In contrast, there were 4 cases in New Zealand at the border, and 56 new community cases today. Now 91.2% are double vaxxed, 94.6% of Kiwis nationally aged 12+ have had at least one vaccination, and the equivalent Australian rate is now at 93.1% of all aged 12+.
GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trading, gold is at US$1806/oz and up +US$17 from than this time yesterday.
EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE
Wall Street ended up more than +1.0% in its Wednesday session as measured by the S&P500. The Dow was up less, the NASDAQ up more. Tokyo has opened trading today up +0.4%. Hong Kong is down -0.1%, while Shanghai has opened flat. Both the ASX200 and the NZX50 are each up +0.3% in later trade today.
SWAPS LITTLE-CHANGED
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to be little-changed, perhaps a little softer. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 0.95%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.60%. The China Govt 10yr is also down -2 bps at 2.85%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.27% and up +1 bp but still below the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.33% (up +2 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.46% and unchanged.
NZ DOLLAR FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is now at 68.1 USc and up another +½c in a day. Against the Aussie we are also marginally softer at 94.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up at 60 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now just over 72.5 and off its recent lows.
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BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price has slipped marginally to US$48,410 to US$48,670 and lower by -0.5% than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.6%.
FINAL FOR THE YEAR
This is the final 4pm update for 2021. We will resume again on Monday, January 17, 2022. Any relevant news will be included in our daily Holiday Briefings until then. Happy Holidays!
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29 Comments
Overall mortgage lending by banks rose by +$2.3 bln in November from October (C5), and similar to the prior month's rise. Mortgage lending books are now +11% higher than a year ago. But now with the restrictive CCCFA measures in place, home buyers are likely facing a credit crunch in coming months from here. Selling houses will be very much harder to find qualified buyers.
Thus, by word and now deed, the Chinese Communists are unequivocally showing you what they think about lower growth prospects; they are, in fact, taking away even more official support as uncertainty and outright problems grow larger, meaning that officials are clearly intent on China’s economy going forward without the same level of real estate and property boost as had been gained since 2009’s grand Keynesian introduction. Link
I think you are looking in the wrong direction for the governments motivation in controlling immigration.
The Labour government knows they don't have to please everyone - just 51% of voters..
Unionists, Maori and Pacific islanders, blue collar Aucklanders and Greens is probably plenty to stay in power.
The biggest impact of immigration controls has been a reduction in competition for lower paying jobs and a steadily rising minimum wage with potential for more increases to come..
That directly appeals to ........ Unionists shoring up support, Maori and Pacific islanders, blue collar workers and liberal leaning Greens.
NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10338727/NSW-Covid-19-Dr-Kerry… If and when I am going to catch COVID I would rather Omicron than Delta.
“It was another month of reduced lending to the rural sector, taking the decline to 20 of the past 22 months (C5). Banks have reduced their exposure to the rural sector to levels last seen in June 2018 and by nearly-$2 bln when it peaked in July 2019.”
Why are the banks de-risking on rural lending?
I thought the primary/rural sector was doing well currently?
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