Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news investors are awaiting the outcome of the US Fed meetings underway which will be known tomorrow. They are nervous that the lateness of their response to the inflation threat may bring an abrupt and unsettling policy shift. Wall Street is showing that nervousness with a renewed sell-off.
Meanwhile, US retail sales are holding with their good gains, but they are over a year-ago base that was pandemic affected.
And that is confirmed by the Conference Board tracking of US consumer sentiment.
In their factory sector, the Richmond Fed's latest survey was positive, but less so. Not going away are the cost and price pressures however.
Today's UST 5 year bond tender has brought sharply rising yields, with the median now 1.49% pa whereas a month ago at the prior equivalent event it was 1.21%. Demand for this bond remains very strong.
In South Korea, they reported their Q4 GDP result yesterday and it was impressive, up +4.1% and its fastest annual pace in 11 years.
German business sentiment is recovering, which follows other recent positive indicators. Although the improvement remains small it is off a ten month low.
But some key commodity prices are just getting excessively frothy. Tin is at a new all-time high with another huge jump today. Nickel is even more frothy. Dr Copper is doing nothing however, although aluminium is making another run at it. Iron ore is beholden to China's slowdown (a bit like copper) so isn't faring in all this froth although labour shortages in Australia and resulting supply issues might get it moving higher again.
The final air cargo data is in for 2021 and it reveals a healthy sector ending a dramatic and turbulent year on a strong note. International trade was +9.4% higher in December than for December 2019. For the Asia/Pacific region it was up +8.8% on the same basis. A consequence of high demand, and capacity stunted because passenger services were weak, meant that freight rates were sky-high, underpinned by very high container shipping rates which are a partial alternative.
About the best thing you can say about international passenger air travel is that it is 'recovering' at the end of 2021. But it is still in a life-and-death crisis.
The IMF is saying that the world economy is facing multiple challenges, including rising pandemic caseloads, a disrupted recovery, and higher inflation. But they are optimistic; they say "inflation should gradually decrease as supply-demand imbalances wane in 2022 and monetary policy in major economies responds."
Australian December CPI came in higher than anticipated, but not hugely higher. They say their consumer prices rose 3.5% in 2021, above the expected 3.2% and higher than the annual rate in September of 3.0%. Housing and transport costs kept the pressure on. Clothing and tech kept it restrained there. Given how much CPI increases have beaten forecasts in other countries, this Aussie report isn't extreme. But it is above their RBA target level, and rising. And it is the highest rate there since 2014.
Australian business confidence fell sharply in December, according to the widely-watched NAB business sentiment report, as the spread of the Omicron variant threatened to dampen their economy’s post-lockdown momentum. The fall in business conditions was driven by the employment component, which fell despite strong jobs growth reported in official data, reflecting the complexity of their labour market situation as businesses faced growing worker shortages and the prospect of a ‘shadow lockdown’ through the summer.
In NSW, there were 18,512 new community cases reported yesterday, a big increase from the prior day, now with 209,326 active locally-acquired cases, and 29 daily deaths. There are now 2,943 in hospital there and a new record high. In Victoria they reported 14,836 more new infections yesterday, also a big rise. There are now 183,154 active cases in that state - and there were also 29 more deaths there too. Queensland is reporting 9,546 new cases and 11 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 1869 yesterday with 5 more deaths. The ACT has 904 new cases and one death, and Tasmania 643 new cases. Overall in Australia, 46,842 new cases were reported.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.75% and up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today steeper at +75 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +95 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is steeper at +171 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is sharply higher at 1.95% and a +7 bps rise. The China Govt ten year bond is another -2 bps lower at 2.68%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is up +1 bp at 2.57%.
In the shadow of yesterday's late recovery, Wall Street is sharply lower again today in afternoon trade with the S&P500 down -1.8%. Overnight, European markets all tried to recover some of the prior day's big falls, up about +0.8% across most markets. Yesterday, Tokyo ended down -1.7%% on the day. Hong Kong was also down -1.7% and Shanghai ended down -2.6%. The ASX200 ended down -2.5% while the NZX50 was a relatively modest -0.5%.
The price of gold starts today at US$1848/oz and +US$14 higher than this time yesterday.
And oil prices start today having recovered yesterday's drop and up by +US$2.50/bbl at just under US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$87/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today unchanged at 66.7 USc and holding its lower level. Against the Australian dollar we are lower at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we are a little firmer at 59.1 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 71.3, and off its recent lows.
The bitcoin price has recovered today, back up to US$37,036 and a +9.0% bounce-back. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 4.8%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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80 Comments
"as supply-demand imbalances wane in 2022 and monetary policy in major economies responds."
Thank you for the morning humour.
Meantime in the real world, the West's media is doing a good repetition of swallowing Weapons of Mass Destruction Mark 2. Sorry, Russia is about to invade.... Reminds one of those trumped-up incidents i countries around Germany, in the mid-late '30s. Key thought? Europe is now dependent on Russian energy.
yes PDK -- the gas pipeline from Russia through Ukraine is just like a tap -- one flick of hte switch and Europe is in way way more economic pain that the severe sanctions that Biden and the West are threatening -- not to mention that they are going full steam ahead to get a major pipeline to chine - and once that happens the EU had better have invested in way way more renewables or they are screwed!
Extraordinary really. Less than twenty years of WW2’s end & the funding of the Marshall plan to prop against Russian expansion, found the EEC for economic security, independence & sustainability and then eventually find yourselves dependent on Russian fuel & Chinese manufacturing.
Indeed - What Next?
That's rubbish. If Putin wants 'neutral', he means a lackey who will jump to his bidding.
No he wants to control Ukraine and his access to Crimea, which will also help him in his dominance over the Black Sea. He has already invaded Ukraine once, in 2014, with effective impunity, so how could Ukraine do anything other than fear him. There is no way they could ever be 'neutral'.
Look at a map, the border of Ukraine is less than 500km from Moscow. Remember the Cuban missile crisis? The US risked nuclear war to prevent the Soviets from installing weapons systems that close to the US mainland. Why should Russia have to tolerate the US installing those same weapons systems in it's front yard?
Ukraine is no threat to Russia. The reason they would like those missiles is because Russian invasion is an existential threat with a high likelihood of happening.
Russia is the agressor here. If you believe this is a defense play by Russia you've swallowed their propaganda hook, line and sinker.
Ukraine might not be a threat to Russia, but you can't say the same of NATO. Their continued expansion eastward since the fall of the Berlin wall is aggressive, NATO is a just another tool for US global hegemony.
Should I swallow the US propaganda instead? They've always been so honest in the past, after all.
Rubbish the Ukraine is very much a threat to Russia, it already is as the USA are just stoking the fire providing weapons to Ukraine. Basically all the USA needs to do is say that the Ukraine will never be a part of NATO and the situation is diffused. What we have is a whole pile of unpopular politicians looking for distractions and poll support by not wanting to back down, its a very dangerous situation that's going to get people killed. Biden is an idiot, just another one after the last one.
No it is not, the Ukraine is less than 500Km from Moscow. NATO could launch a hypersonic missile from there and it would hit Moscow before Putin could wipe his arse and pull his pants up. The Ukraine is screwed because of its geographic position and changes is missile technology. Russia wants it back and you would be a fool to go to war over it. The USA needs to stop trying to be the world police and focus on its own massive internal problems. At least Trump started pulling troops out of totally lost causes.
That's a good point. China could take advantage of the chaos in the Ukraine to go for Taiwan. If it were really ambitious, it may gobble a bit of other countries too, such as Nepal, Bhutan and India.
And finally, if really really ambitious, it may go for the soft underbelly of Russia via Mongolia with the vast sparsely-populated, resource-rich territory there. After all, who'd come to the aid of Russia if it decided to go into Ukraine?
And the fact that they are cozying up with Iran too... This is a big concern..
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-china-iran-hold-joint-naval-drill-…
Firstly the west doesn't have an operational hypersonic missile. If you are to believe their propaganda - Russia does however. And countries like Ukraine were never a part of Russia. They were subsumed by the Soviet Dictatorship. After the collapse of that dictatorship they have only sought independence and democracy.
NATO does not recruit new members, they have to apply to join and the membership standards are pretty rigorous (Although Turkey is a member, it's Erdogan's Government would not likely meet the criteria). So NATO's expansion eastward is not a goal of NATO but at the request of those countries who joined after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
NATO, not just US. If Russia only had to worry about US planes, then they wouldn't be so paranoid. But when your main enemy AND his allies have the same stealth strike capability, then you have many times more to worry about.
I'm not defending Putin here, just seeing it as from the Russian POV...
My brother used to work in the Singapore defense industry and when I asked him why Singapore was bothering to buy (at first they wanted the F-22s but were declined) F-35s, he said "First strike capability, it's as much a deterrent as it is a weapon".
You didn’t answer my question. What about the F-35 changes the game in terms of a first strike on Russia?
No offence to your brother but that is a terrible source with no detail.
I would argue that the F-35 is not a game changer at all. And in fact no conventional weapon is a game changer with respect to Russia because any existential conflict will be governed by nuclear weapons theory not conventional weapons.
Why are you only thinking in nuclear terms? Are you expecting the current situation to devolve into a nuclear scenario? Why?
This will be a conventional conflict. The stakes are not high enough to warrant even a nuclear option unless Russia is attacked by NATO/US, so why even bring it into the conversation?
You can easily research the capabilities of the F-35 yourself. I won't insult your by reciting data you can easily find yourself.
You are piece of work. Do the research yourself is the go to of everyone who finds themselves without facts in an argument. You cannot provide the facts because they do not exist.
Of course it will be a conventional conflict but you aren’t talking about this conflict, you are talking about a hypothetical one where the US and allies threaten Russia with these F-35 points. And I said if the US ever threatened Russia then nukes would be on the table. Hence the US will never threaten Russia. That is the whole point of the nuclear deterrent.
You are piece of work. Do the research yourself is the go to of everyone who finds themselves without facts in an argument. You cannot provide the facts because they do not exist.
And I said if the US ever threatened Russia then nukes would be on the table. Hence the US will never threaten Russia. That is the whole point of the nuclear deterrent.
Wow, that was such a lazy reply, what a way to get out of doing your own homework. Fine, here's some information for you after a whole 0.70 seconds of searching:
"The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is the cornerstone of our future fighter force and air superiority. ... With stealth designed in from day one, the F-35 has an unmatched ability to evade enemy detection and enter contested airspace."
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/f35/news-and-features/everything-you-nee…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II
Just type "strike and stealth capabilities of F-35" into Google...
Do you really love the notion of a nuclear conflict so much?
Partly correct - they can still make more but they can't afford to since they can't sell it to allies to help pay for it (something they did with the F-16 very successfully and now the F-35), so each F-22 costs more than the US itself can afford to pay.
They wanted a fleet of 1,000+ F-22s but ended up 130+... Very sad.
Hey Nzdano, why does the US have such a problem with Russia parking a bunch of their military forces on their own soil near a country that keeps up an anti-Russian tirade when the US itself is quite happy, and apparently sees no provocation (towards China), in persistently sailing a large chunk of their Pacific naval fleet in the South China Sea. If it's okay for the US to put their military forces where-ever they like thousands of kilometres from their own borders then tell me what is wrong with Putin putting his own military where he wants to within his own country! Hypocrisy on the part of the US and it's NATO lap-dogs if you ask me and before you ask, I am definitely not pro-Russia or China.
With the US as a prime supplier of arms to NATO, why would they even consider putting ballistic missiles into Ukraine? Ukraine is a long way from being stable, and only wants a secure independence, and un-interfered democracy. Things that Russia can't seem to tolerate. Your view is very very naive. NATO has existed since the 50's and has never mounted ballistic missiles. But take a look at France, who are not a member of NATO. They actually pulled out so they could chart their own nuke pathway.
It's never as one-dimensional as that....
Putin is a bully and a tyrant, but that aside there are other substantial factors (some historical and justified in the Russian psyche) that should not be overlooked or dismissed, chief among them is paranoia over a new threat from the west a la 1940s, and a strong sense of vulnerability from the encroachment of NATO eastwards towards Russia, potentially from the south by Turkey and Iran, and from China with its encroachment towards the central asia region.
US is selling a stealth strike fighter to many EU countries, including some very near to Russia or within striking distance. China is feeling its way (with the belt and road initiative) into the central asian region, and Turkey & Iran in poking around in the southern parts, so to Russia (not Putin, but Russia), it sees potential threats and glaring vulnerabilities.
Think of it from the Russian perspective - they have been overrun many times in history and after losing several satellite countries since the downfall of the USSR, the geographical boundaries now leaves Russia vulnerable to incursions from the west (Europe), south (Crimea) and south-east (central asia). I suppose directly from the east is the US on the pacific side too, so that's another vulnerability...
Paranoia is a major component of the Russian cultural and psychological, and therefore political-military makeup.
The Soviet Union collapsed when Reagan called their bluff whereupon it became clear that the actual Soviet military strength had been vastly over estimated. Sure in conflict the Soviets could have inflicted huge damage but in the end they would be overpowered and they knew it. Since then new technology may have allowed Putin to close the gap. But Russia in itself is now undeniably smaller, geographically & economically. For instance ten USA states have in their own right economies larger or around the same size as Russia. WW2 saw aircraft carriers eclipse battleships. Now nuclear subs have eclipsed aircraft carriers. The USA & allies have 94 of these, Russia & China 36 The problem too for Russia is deployment in that Black Sea sailings have to pass through the Bosphorus & thence past Gibraltar. Northern ports are not warm water ports. Putin was eyeing the Baltic States.They are now in NATO. Ukraine following would be the final straw and probably Georgia too. If Putin should “absorb” Ukraine he does not gain much at all strategically in a military sense. He knows he will not be allowed to march west & south with the same impunity as Adolf expanded, in the 1930s. The USA & allies have enough intercontinental missiles plus short range bases in Turkey, the Baltic and on to overfly Ukraine in minutes. And then of course, there all those subs, whereabouts unknown. It’s actually difficult to imagine what Putin would actually achieve by invading Ukraine given that there will be vicious open, then unceasing partisan conflict. Thought many would have learned by now from the Afghanistan fruitless campaigns. You will just be engaged in open ended bloodshed for very little gain.
Putin has shown a far better grasp on strategy than the US or UK in recent years. Look at the mess in Syria. If everyone had stayed out of it or backed Assad (like Putin did) the Country would have remained stable. They could then have worked on Assad to improve human rights. Instead the UK and US backed a load of dodgy militia and destroyed the place. The US destroyed Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. They need to focus on their own problems, Democrats can't even hold a civil conversation with Republicans, how can they think of themselves as world peace makers.
In 1939 the Soviets invaded Finland primarily because Finland would not agree to a buffer zone that would keep Leningrad out of artillery range. The Soviets didn’t have it easy but force of numbers & arms etc prevailed in about three months. The Fins then made the ill-advised decision to actively side with the Nazis, Operation Barbarossa, invasion of the USSR. Leningrad was thus well and truly bombarded from west & south.Always seemed strange that Stalin did not insist on including Finland in territory that became the Warsaw Pact. After all Helsinki is strategically a hugely important port, much more so than Odessa & surrounds if that is part of Putin’s objectives now.
pdk,
I have no idea what Russia's intentions are, nor do I have any geo-political expertise, but are you saying that Russia doesn't meddle in the affairs of other countries-particularly former Soviet countries? What about Crimea-did it not invade it just recently? Belarus-is Russia not propping up a thoroughly unpopular government?
Trumped up incidents in Europe- Spain? Austria? Czechoslovakia? Poland?
I would like to think that my views are formed by reference to various sources, though I certainly read mainstream media. I find it difficult to understand why Europe has allowed itself to become so dependent on Russian gas.
That article includes this sentence: ""The war was a crime against peace, pure and simple."" Strange use of the word peace when according to the International Center for Transitional Justice, the Yugoslav Wars resulted in the deaths of 140,000 people. The Humanitarian Law Center estimates that in the conflicts in the former Yugoslav republics at least 130,000 people were killed. In the Bosnian sub-conflict 2.2 million people displaced. According to the Trešnjevka Women's Group, more than 35,000 women and children were held in such Serb-run "rape camps".
This happened while Europe watched on. My own country the UK as bad as any. At least American involvement for all its faults brought a comparative peace.
Agreed all wars and especially one with bombing raids cause deaths and are bad. But compared to the deaths and rapes prior to US involvement these numbers are trivial: ""Human Rights Watch concluded ... as many as 528 Yugoslav civilians were killed in the ninety separate incidents in Operation Allied Force". Refugees were among the victims. Between 278 and 317 of the deaths, nearly 60 percent of the total number, were in Kosovo. In Serbia, 201 civilians were killed and eight died in Montenegro.""
Audaxes "Israel and the Golf States" - thanks for the second chuckle of the morning :)
Linklater - no, they're not lily-white. But they're less black than the US, since WW2.
https://www.countercurrents.org/polya050713.htm
And most of their moves are about defensive buffering; they cannot tolerate missiles within 6 minutes of Moscow (here I differ with Murray86). Stepping back, that piece of topography has been the clashing-ground for centuries, for good reasons. It's like chess; Russia is what it is; whatever European belligerent is what it is, and somewhere in the middle is a demarcation. You chuck your pawns forward to protect your king and give yourself a buffer; some room to manoeuvre.
A number of NATO countries are buying the F-35 stealth strike aircraft - is that not first strike capability?
Is NATO protecting existing borders when admitting new members bordering Russia? And then selling those countries EU or US weapons?
Putin is a bully and a tyrant, but that aside there are other substantial factors (some historical and justified in the Russian psyche) that should not be overlooked or dismissed, chief among them is paranoia over a renewed threat from the west a la 1940s, and a strong sense of vulnerability from the encroachment of NATO eastwards towards Russia and from China with its encroachment towards the central asia region.
Think of it from the Russian perspective - they have been overrun many times in history and after losing several satellite countries since the downfall of the USSR, the geographical boundaries now leaves Russia vulnerable to incursions from the west (Europe), south (Crimea) and south-east (central asia). I suppose directly from the east is the US on the pacific side too, so that's another vulnerability...
'First Strike' is a policy choice not an aircraft. If you are to use that (aircraft) then Russia has a massive first strike capability, that cannot be fully countered. Russia's borders have never been threatened. In the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was very much disorganised and vulnerable to invasion, especially by NATO. But did this happen? No! Again because NATO is a defensive agreement not anything else. Putin's concern about Ukraine becoming a part of NATO is not about NATO's potential threat to Russia, but about NATO coming to the defence of Ukraine when Russia invades it. That would scupper Putin's plans.
Is NATO and Europe today the same as Europe/NATO in the times of the Soviet Union?
If you had Poland, Estonia, etc as a buffer in the past, when now they are NATO members right at your doorstep, would you not feel a little threatened?
As I said, see it from the Russian perspective, not the western perspective...
The Russian perspective is one of aggression. They seek to dominate not live in harmony. Poland, Estonia ETC were parts of the Soviet Union and it is their experience with Russia that has led them to join NATO. Russia feels vulnerable? This is not about buffers but a bully who is progressively being deprived of victims, and being held to account. The 'perspective' as you put it is BS.
PDK.
Best you don't quote sources using phrases such as "Traitorous racist Zionists". Which also lumps in US military invasions of North Africa and bits of Europe during WW2, to the enduring gratitude of the locals, with their other less salubrious adventures. You have ruined the little credibility you had, by acknowledging your following of such websites.
sit23 - how many Palestinians are held in conditions similar to the Warsaw ghetto?
6 million, last I looked it up. An interesting figure, no? Remind you of anything?
What did they do wrong?
Actually, how many N African 'locals' welcome the US, again? It was all about access to oil - from Allenby/Bell/Lawrence on.
If you look, all the easy options for getting more gas from the middle east are through conflict zones, and the only other option is LNG from the US. Which I assume is exactly what the US wants because it has a lot of NG but not many markets wanting to pay the expense of LNG shipping. If the US can stop the EU buying gas from Russia, they win big time.
Yes, the US gets to eat Europe's lunch near term - but higher input costs make manufactured export prices uncompetitive on international markets.
China becomes stakeholder in outcome of EU-US-Germany-Russia gas tango. Putin-Xi talks in Beijing (Feb) will prioritise Mongolian route of Power of Siberia pipeline potentially delivering up to 50 bcm/year to China (same as Nord Stream 2.) http://en.people.cn/n3/2021/1230/c
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US in talks with Qatar on LNG in case Russia-Ukraine crisis explodes
Biden administration representatives are in talks with Qatari officials on possible supplies of natural gas to Europe in the event of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta they doubt that Qatar’s gas can fully substitute for Russian fuel. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from Qatar are still far behind Gazprom's exports to the EU, and they do not meet the needs of European states themselves.
The Qatari-US negotiations are tied to a potential scarcity of energy supplies in the event that the current crisis between Russia and Ukraine heats up even further, according to Bloomberg. At the same time, the agency's sources stated that it will be difficult to considerably boost LNG supplies to Europe in the immediate future due to increased global demand for gas. However, it is expected that Qatar may be ready to divert its LNG tankers to Europe in the event of a war in Ukraine.
It is unlikely that an alternative to Russian natural gas supplies will be found quickly, asset manager at BCS Mir Investments Vitaly Gromadin told the newspaper. At the same time, the expert does not rule out that in the long term it is quite possible to launch new large projects in other regions. "But it will cost more for European consumers than pipeline supplies from Russia," he pointed out.
Today, Russia has an almost half-a-century-long impeccable reputation as a supplier of energy resources to the EU, economist Andrey Loboda noted. "Russian pipeline transport is the safest and most competitive today. Russia's share in Europe’s energy supplies is unlikely to fall below 40% of the total market," he told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
All world powers (or countries in general) meddle in affairs of those inside their spheres of influence. The Ukraine conflict is because US has decided to meddle in the affairs of places Russia considers to be inside its sphere. This conflict has been going for years the other side has a different story behind the sequence of events. This is Russia protecting it's interests from the US.
For example go have a read of who was a part of group that tried to overthrow Kazakhstan's government and make up your own mind if they had popular support or less honourable motives or what events preceded the invasion of Crimea. I think US and UK MSM are reporting propaganda at the moment.
The bubble of everything is about to burst…
"The IMF is saying that the world economy is facing multiple challenges, including rising pandemic caseloads, a disrupted recovery, and higher inflation. But they are optimistic; they say "inflation should gradually decrease as supply-demand imbalances wane in 2022 and monetary policy in major economies responds."
Read increased interest rates, rising unemployment and defaults......"optimistic"???
"Other factors: Geopolitical tensions, including in eastern Europe and east Asia, imperil energy
supply, international trade, and policy cooperation. Social unrest, which had declined earlier in
the pandemic, is once again on the rise in some countries—related in part to elevated food and
energy prices."
Food IS energy, indeed all 'price rises' are energy-related.
Am I being mean for wishing for this to happen?
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-je…
"They are nervous that the lateness of their response to the inflation threat may bring an abrupt and unsettling policy shift."
Why does everyone tries to be diplomatic when it comes to Reserve bank, why not be upfront and say that fed was wrong, which led to distorting the economy and now will have to pay the price for their fetish,.
Admit that fed did more harm than pandemic.
As I keep saying, they were not wrong. They knew exactly what they were doing, these guys are smart as f***. More harm than good to plebs, yes, but they don't actually care. They did an excellent job for the people they actually serve, their rich buddies in the top 1%. Their wealth grew astronomically through asset price inflation, whether it be property or shares. Job well done! Now to pretend to care about the plebs and their loaf of bread going up 10% in price.
Wall Street waits for Fed nervously
Regardless of reality, Jay Powell, God bless him, he's backed the FOMC into a huge corner. Admit the slowdown, and risk making it worse. To keep up spirits (the only thing the FOMC does), they actually *have* to raise rates now. Bonds call the bluff. https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/01/20/goo
The curve, as always, could change but why would it now? What has changed lately in any material fashion? According to the vastly more important shape, even as rates are pushed up from below there is no steepening in it anywhere. On the contrary, flatness is over the past week or so pushing new levels of flat.
Today's UST 5 year bond tender has brought sharply rising yields, with the median now 1.49% pa whereas a month ago at the prior equivalent event it was 1.21%. Demand for this bond remains very strong.
Demand for safe, liquid pristine government assets has no end for large US banks - unfortunately bank loans to the productive sector are displaced except for the largest US corporate borrowers.
It is sad that this debate is needed. And it is distracting NZ from our need to produce mathematicians and scientists. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/science-or-ideology-the-nz-university-at-the…?
"" It is access to the abstract quality of academic knowledge and language, its very remoteness from everyday experience, and its formality – science in other words – that is necessary for success. Tragically this knowledge is miscast as ‘euro-centric’. The aim of the decolonisation and re-indigenisation of New Zealand education is to replace this knowledge with the cultural knowledge of experience. But science is not euro-centric or western. It is universal. This is recognised in the International Science Council’s definition of science as 'rationally explicable, tested against reality, logic, and the scrutiny of peers this is a special form of knowledge'. ""
Is it brave of prof Rata to lift her head above the barricades?
MOH said the track & trace team aren't coping & missing some Omicron cases,,,,
ln 5 weeks time there will be 25k reported daily cases , and only God will know how
many not reported....T&T team may as well stop now & signing in very shortly may
as well stop to......save ya selves 10s of millions $$$ to...
MOH all so said you must take personal responsibility for your health....
should of been shouting that one 20 months ago....
Here's what l would recommend....Daily RAT tests for care give givers & hospital staff..
What's the point of daily testing, its just a waste of more money. Everyone's going to get this sooner or later unless you opt for a super lockdown where you (or your family) never leave your house and get all your food delivered. The symptoms are so mild that most people will just carry on as normal and not even disclose it. May as well just let rip and get it over with before winter arrives. Build some natural immunity before the next variant arrives.
When one compares the binary choice on offer:
- Get the sniffles, speed down to the local GP or ER, get tested, logged as a Case, followed up ( intermittently and probably incompetently), isolated for up to a month as it pulses through the whanau, lose income, strain relationships, etc.
- Get the sniffles, swallow a few OTC meds, get over it in a few days, carry on....
It would seem less stress all around to opt for #2 unless the symptoms are more than a bad flu......and no Case recorded.....
Carlos totally agree , one problem , here in QLD more than half of total covid deaths are from residents of care homes..
So if you wont to keep Grand Ma alive a bit longer ......l am sure Jacinda & her experts would have taken notes of mistakes
from overseas.....Omicron has 7 days before you have symptoms or not .......care workers.....how are those Rat tests coming along..
You guys are 5 weeks behind QLD.......Omi is no big deal here , just the old & vulnerable Jacinda may wont to look at..
On a platter…
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