What happened Thursday

Business / news

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; BNZ raises some home loan rates, Crown deficits embed, tax take very high & rising, population stable but ageing. swaps retreat, NZF firms, & more

17th Feb 22, 4:02pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Late yesterday BNZ largely followed ANZ with their own increases to some fixed mortgage rates - and a decrease. And the Cooperative Bank raised their fixed rates by about +10 bps.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here today.

GOVT DEFICITS LINGER
The Crown accounts are out for the six months to December 2022 and they show an -$8 bln deficit for the period, down from the forecast -$10.9 bln on an OBEGAL basis. The full accounting deficit for the period is -$13.3 bln vs the expected -$15.9 bln in the HYEFU. Net debt as a percent of GDP is stable at 36.8%.

TAX TAKE UP SHARPLY
Deep within those Crown accounts is data that shows the fast rise in the tax take from individuals is continuing (Note 2 in the Accounts). For the year to December it is up more than +15% compared to the same year to December 2020. In fact the pace is quickening. December 2021 alone was up more than +18% over December 2020 to hit a new all-time monthly record of +$4.8 bln. Normally the top month in the year is a March, but not in 2021. And the tax take from companies has recovered sharply as well. Despite the fast rise in the tax take, there is no surplus, because Government spending continues at a fast pace too.

UNSUSTAINABLE DEMOGRAPHIC TWIST
The population grew by just +4600 in the period from September to December to reach 5,127,200. That is the slowest quarterly growth since September 2012. Worse, we are ageing fast. The median age rose to its highest ever at 37.9 years. Our over 65 population rising faster (+24,500 in a year) and our working age population is actually shrinking now (-2,100 in a year). Closed borders are twisting our demography in a costly and ultimately unsustainable direction.

MORE BABIES REQUIRED TO FUND THE AGED
Of course, deaths are rising as the population ages, 34,932 in 2021 and the highest ever, but births remain low as the birth rate stays low. See charts here.

RISING YIELDS, WELL SUPPORTED
The latest Treasury bond tender was successful with $200 mln offered and $709 mln bid. The April 2027 $100 mln attracted 24 bids but only 2 were accepted at 2.63% pa yield, and up from 2.34% two weeks ago. The $100 mln May 2051 bond attracted 29 bids and 14 won something. The yield was 3.16% pa, up from 2.87% two weeks ago.

GDT TO SUPPORT AN EXTENDED DERIVATIVE SET
Fonterra has said it has a deal to sell one third of its share in the Global Dairy Trade platform to NZX, and another third to EEX (European Energy Exchange). The goal seems to be two-fold - bring more suppliers on to the platform, because they are reluctant when it is wholly Fonterra owned, and b) increase the ability to develop risk management options - code for adding many more derivative products to the underlying trades. This will financialise the the indexes that record the actual transactions - and that may be where the real money is made (?). The NZX also said it is raising more capital, of which $12.5 mln is for the GDT stake. That could mean Fonterra is selling down and getting $25 mln for the GDT stake.

MORE JOBS, LESS HOURS
Australia added +13,000 new jobs in January when none were expected, but it actually isn't great news. That is because is lost -17,000 full time jobs and gained +30,000 part-time jobs. Their jobless rate stayed at 4.2%. The switch to part-time jobs helps explain that hours worked fell by almost -9% between December 2021 and January 2022. Rising sick leave is also being cited. But looking past the detail, it is clear that Omicron did not really affect their labour market that much in January, overall.

RESURGENT
Japan has reported some very encouraging machinery orders in December, up +5.1% year-on-year and +3.6% of that in December alone. This data confirms the strong machine tool order data we had earlier. They need their capital goods sector to fire because imports are rising sharply (especially oil).

LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In NSW, there has been 9,995 new community cases reported yesterday, now with 109,989 (revised) active locally-acquired cases, and another 14 daily deaths. There are now 1,447 in hospital there, now well off their high. In Victoria they reported 8,501 more new infections yesterday, a little higher. There are now 50,042 active cases in that state - but there were 9 deaths there. Queensland is reporting 5,665 new cases and 39 deaths. In South Australia, new cases have risen to 1624 yesterday and 2 more deaths. The ACT has 537 new cases and one death, and Tasmania 680 new cases and no deaths. Overall in Australia, more than 27,000 new cases have been reported so far although not all counts are in yet. In New Zealand, there were 15 cases stopped at the border, plus 1573 new cases reported in the community, another new record.

GOLD BACK UP
In early Asian trading, gold is now at US$1870 and up +US$18 from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MIXED
The S&P ended the day virtually unchanged on Wall Street after being lower for most of today's session. Tokyo has opened today down -0.4% after yesterday's big rise. Hong Kong is unchanged at its open; Shanghai is down -0.3%. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in early afternoon trade. And the NZX50 is also up +0.6% in late afternoon trade

SWAPS RETREAT
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to have fallen back today. The two year is back to June 2016 levels now. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.23%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is unchanged from yesterday to 2.24%. The China Govt 10yr is also unchanged at 2.81%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.80% (down -6 bps from this time yesterday) and now below the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.84% (down -4 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 2.03%, and unchanged from this time yesterday.

NZ DOLLAR FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is +½c firmer today at 66.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are uncahnged at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are +¼c higher at 58.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is up +40 bps at 71.3.

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BITCOIN FIRMS MARGINALLY
Bitcoin is a little firmer today at US$44,053 but essentially unchanged from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/- 1.2%.

CONGRATS MATT HENRY
7-fors are rare.

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110 Comments

by chebbo | 17th Feb 22, 4:04pm 1645067074

MORE BABIES REQUIRED TO FUND THE AGED

Time for another lockdown, then?

by Solve_it | 17th Feb 22, 4:38pm 1645069107

It's Russian roulette, more babies or more divorces? Would be an interesting set of statistics to compare.

by hum | 17th Feb 22, 4:51pm 1645069896

probably both

by singautim | 17th Feb 22, 5:16pm 1645071377

As a father of adult girls with partners doing middle class jobs it is clear that for an average Kiwi having a child means a plunge into poverty. A generous universal child benefit is needed - our govt's attempt to means benefits (WFF, Accommodation supplement) makes child-bearing feasible for the really poor, the really wealthy and for those with generous elderly parents.

If school and tertiary education are a universal benefits why not pre-schoolers?

by Hardly | 17th Feb 22, 5:59pm 1645073948

Or…. Instead of giving people benefits to cover the cost of living we could stop overpaying for houses which is a tax on New Zealanders.

by Yvil | 17th Feb 22, 7:22pm 1645078959

Excellent idea, why don't you lead the way by selling your house for half it's value?

by mfd | 17th Feb 22, 7:29pm 1645079359

This comment keeps being made on this website despite making absolutely no sense. Like a broken, non-sensical record.

How does throwing away your own money make any difference to the many and varied problems caused by high house prices? It's nothing more than pissing into a gale force wind.

by HouseMouse | 17th Feb 22, 7:32pm 1645079534

It's a moronic comment.

by HouseMouse | 17th Feb 22, 8:03pm 1645081384

It's like when someone says the super age should be raised, or means tested, then someone says 'well you could donate your super'. I have heard that nonsense several times.

It totally misses the point that we are talking about society-wide things.

by mfd | 17th Feb 22, 8:30pm 1645083059

Just a lazy attempt to shut down an opposing opinion. As if it's incomprehensible that someone could own a home and still believe that lower house prices would make for a better country.

by Yvil | 17th Feb 22, 10:04pm 1645088697

Sounds like I touched a nerve. Of course it makes perfect sense as it indeed opens the door to lower house prices. The real issue is that: "I like the idea of lower house prices but only as long as I don't have to pay for it by getting less money"

by mfd | 17th Feb 22, 10:15pm 1645089318

What makes you think anyone would expect otherwise? Of course if house prices fall my house value will fall too. This is absolutely fine with me, and the vast majority in the country will benefit in the long run. You built this straw man yourself.

One house sale doesn't change a market - I want change rather than martyrs.

by HouseMouse | 17th Feb 22, 10:40pm 1645090804

It's mainly speculators who worry about falling house prices. Most owner occupiers need not worry, apart perhaps some who bought in the last year or so.

I couldn't really care less if my property's value fell 25-30% along with the rest of the market. It's not like I've dined out irresponsibly on the value uplift of my property over the past 2.5 years.

It would be a good thing, it would give some FHBs a bit of a chance.

by Hardly | 17th Feb 22, 8:08pm 1645081734

I do my bit - I live in my house and don’t treat it like a commodity. I pay down my debt instead of consuming through leverage and I’m saving via non-housing assets. If everyone did that we’d be all better off.

by Yvil | 17th Feb 22, 7:25pm 1645079110

by Pa1nter | 17th Feb 22, 6:16pm 1645074965

They need to move to a smaller town.

Pros: cheaper housing, shorter or no commutes, nicer scenery, better place to raise kids (although less opportunity when they are older), often better money than in the cities for blue collar jobs.

Cons: lacks economies of scale of cities, less choice, less white collar jobs.

You can earn 80 grand a year driving a tractor at the moment. Put on some headphones, play podcasts, boom.

by Beanie | 17th Feb 22, 6:33pm 1645075999

Totally agree with moving to a small town to raise kids. Kids are a great icebreaker to making new friends yourself.

Interested to know where these 80k pa jobs driving a tractor is though.

by Just a farmer | 18th Feb 22, 5:55am 1645116906

Everywhere, truck and machinery drivers are in such high demand. $35-40/hr+ extras is pretty normal now.

I drive trucks and tractors for a living and $80k is my base salary now (guaranteed minimum hours year round), plus a company fuel card for my car, and they pay for my phone.

Add overtime into the mix (any week I do over 40 hours) and it is a 6 figure job easy enough.

by Flying high | 18th Feb 22, 6:29am 1645118941

As employee or self empl?

by Just a farmer | 18th Feb 22, 8:41pm 1645170114

Employee.

by peter.may | 18th Feb 22, 9:05am 1645128328

Our plumber earns between $90 -$100,000pa Many tradies earn similar. A good chippie over $120,000.00pa

by Brock Landers | 17th Feb 22, 6:42pm 1645076533

Smaller town or better country. Not everybody is cut out for unskilled work.

by Pa1nter | 17th Feb 22, 7:34pm 1645079662

Man this is the longest going away party of all time.

by Brock Landers | 17th Feb 22, 7:59pm 1645081187

You could always go watch some paint dry to pass the time.

by Pa1nter | 18th Feb 22, 7:20am 1645122013

You can mock blue collar work all you want, but one of us seems a bit more dissatisfied with what they're doing than the other.

by singautim | 17th Feb 22, 6:42pm 1645076538

They have partners with Auckland jobs and one has a teenager settled at school - why does she have to move because she had a second child? The other is seriously considering moving to Christchurch where they have no family of friends and being brown skinned are looked at as aliens.

by Solve_it | 17th Feb 22, 10:07pm 1645088865

Less white collar jobs but due to the major shortage of white collar workers everywhere, they are still basically guaranteed a job wherever they want to go from what I've been seeing and hearing.

I'm in a regional city / town and on as much perhaps more than if I was working in Auckland. Property is at less than half the price than if we was living in Auckland.

by Squishy | 17th Feb 22, 9:02pm 1645084967

Lockdowns actually appear to reduce birthrates, there isn't much sign of birthrates recovering either.

by custard | 17th Feb 22, 4:14pm 1645067655

Equally, open borders over the last 10 years twisted our demography in a costly and ultimately unsustainable direction.

by solardb | 17th Feb 22, 4:17pm 1645067862

How?

by sparrow | 17th Feb 22, 4:30pm 1645068610

By creating another demographic bulge that's going to have to be dealt with in 30 or 40 years.

It's time to think of smarter solutions than mindlessly continuing to increase the population.

by lowercase capitalist | 17th Feb 22, 4:37pm 1645069071

by rastus1 | 17th Feb 22, 4:29pm 1645068568

The population grew by just +4600 in the period from September to December to reach 5,127,200. That is the slowest quarterly growth since September 2012. Worse, we are ageing fast.

Could you please replace the world 'worse' with 'better still'

by Kauri | 17th Feb 22, 5:43pm 1645073010

Agree...a bit of an ageist tone (although probably unintended). People living longer, healthier lives is something to celebrate.

by Nzdano | 17th Feb 22, 6:09pm 1645074573

Who will support the retired when there's hardly any working age left?

by singautim | 17th Feb 22, 6:43pm 1645076614

NZ will copy other developed countries and shift the retirement age.

by Justa comment | 17th Feb 22, 7:33pm 1645079600

The unsustainability of the retirement age and non means tested super is rapidly approaching. The current system will not be possible in 15 years (probably in 7 or 8). The cost will be horrendous.

by Nzdan | 17th Feb 22, 10:51pm 1645091464

I've always found it funny how we can find $14.5 billion per year to fund the retirement of a cohort who had access to free tertiary education, yet we cannot find $1b per year to eradicate student loans.

by MortgageBelt | 17th Feb 22, 4:30pm 1645068645

A week and a half until the 1 million offshore kiwis can return home to NZ without an impossible lottery and can just home isolate instead of MIQ.

Impact on the economy & housing?

And be careful fixing your mortgage for too long - don’t want to pay break fees in 12-18 months to enjoy 3% fixed.

by Foxglove. | 17th Feb 22, 6:38pm 1645076317

Might not want to come home to NZ. Everybody may be self isolating during the lockdown that isn’t a lockdown. NZ closed down. Schools are already rapidly closing. Parents not at work therefore. Inexcusable shortage of RATs for vital areas, creating shutdowns, staff absences, nationwide soon. Just waiting for the MoH to come out and blame private industry for not having the foresight to order sufficient RAT stocks for them to steal.

ps. STUFF now reporting DHB lab staff announcing strike action in March. Beyond not reaching any agreement in over 12 months negotiations on pay levels, laboratories are understaffed, hours are overlong & exhausting, the work highly specialised with no margin for error with or without covid. Sounds like many others this sector has had more than enough. Do believe that is going to put a RAT amongst the chickens.

ps again. Minister Little on One News, refutes credibility of these staff. Points out the government has poured $ millions into health. Yes maybe, , but as Dr Reti pointed out, carefully & accurately in parliament, that money has been poured into the restructure, the monumental new health authority, in Wellington. Not frontline vital staff and functions such as this. All in the midst of a pandemic. Go figure.

by Tigadee | 17th Feb 22, 4:55pm 1645070105

Might not want to come home to NZ

Too true. How the PM handles the protesters will also be a factor, I believe, especially IF it does not end well. Arden's failure to address the protesters so far (even using a proxy such as a minister or a Labour party leader, or even an opposition party person) would bring this situation to a quicker end) paints her in a bad light.

Allowing it to drag on like this makes her look weak, indecisive, while dismissing it as imported makes her look out of touch, as it is clearly an organic grassroots home-grown hodge-podge of all walks of Kiwi life.

Plus it breeds more division among Kiwis with her unwillingness to address the issue giving license on one side to demonise and shut down, while galvanising the other side into a populist movement.

It started off with the whacky protesters but attention will shift to the PM instead the longer she lets it fester. In the end, it will be her actions (or inaction) that people will remember, not the occupation of the parliament lawn by a motley crew.

by Beanie | 17th Feb 22, 5:06pm 1645070774

Looking at how it's been handled I think it's entirely possible it gets much worse..ie Canada style. Just wait until they are referred to as terrorists by the government here. Which could become self fulfilling.

by singautim | 17th Feb 22, 5:22pm 1645071754

From a report published mar 2021 ""SOUL (Save Our Unique Landscape) protesters at Ihumātao had been peacefully occupying the privately-owned land next to the Ōtuataua Stonefield’s historic reserve for the best part of four years""

by HouseMouse | 17th Feb 22, 6:27pm 1645075661

I think the way the PM is referring to them will only be stirring them up further.

by northman46 | 17th Feb 22, 6:12pm 1645074772

I think it'll simply come down to people wanting to see their families again at long last. I know I can't wait to see family again after more than 2 years. The rest of it (Jacinda, covid, protests, etc) is just background noise.

Whether they stay or not will simply come down to jobs, housing and lifestyle once the honeymoon period is over.

I think the real question is how many will leave.

by MortgageBelt | 17th Feb 22, 5:18pm 1645071504

The lockdown we are having when there’s no official lockdown!

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/127802157/big-companies-gover…

Universities now online, schools closing down, companies offices closed as WFH imposed on staff, anti-mandate protestors growing in Wellington & popping up in every city: chch, Picton, Dunedin etc , and people turning off their Bluetooth & COVID scanner to avoid 7 day isolations.

And no or little support for small businesses getting damaged from all this.

by Zack Brando | 17th Feb 22, 5:21pm 1645071697

Lots of potential customers for Wellington businesses atm.

by MortgageBelt | 17th Feb 22, 5:35pm 1645072545

Backbenchers Pub has been used as a clothing distribution centre. There’s always an entrepreneurial opportunity!

by lowercase capitalist | 17th Feb 22, 5:30pm 1645072241

Do you think there should be support for businesses damaged by our unofficial lockdown?

by MortgageBelt | 17th Feb 22, 5:39pm 1645072751

Why not?

It’s the direct result of government mandates - Red Light, MVPs, and 7 + 7 + … home isolation etc policies and rules.

by Foxglove. | 17th Feb 22, 5:45pm 1645073117

Hardly, as far as the government is concerned it seems. Therefore say a Business loses a third of its staff to a covid case & close contacts etc. Can’t carry on as such. But has to pay those staff full wages even after sick leave runs out. The cases become a revolving door. End of business. Gone bust.

by MortgageBelt | 17th Feb 22, 5:51pm 1645073497

And a $330 fine for non-compliance to get tested I heard. Yes Foxglove these conditions are much much worse for retailers, cafes, restaurant, service based businesses.

by Foxglove. | 17th Feb 22, 8:32pm 1645083157

And for two years the public service has carried on regardless of whether actually working or not on full pay. And from that lofty and comfortable position they can dictate to the lesser beings in private industry & business how they can conduct business and pay the taxes and costs to keep such fat cats content and safe in their jobs.

by HouseMouse | 17th Feb 22, 6:31pm 1645075891

Reluctantly (because we will have to pay) yes.

The government's excessive approach is killing some sectors, compensate them for it.

by JimboJones | 17th Feb 22, 6:33pm 1645076008

I turned off my Bluetooth last night and I no longer scan. Considering you are not required to do it, why would you when it means more chance of a 7 day isolation. Maybe if they hadn’t kept Auckland locked down for quite as long I would be more kind in my scanning, but we have only had one month in the last 8 or so that have not been red or worse. Also we don’t want our kids to miss more school, although it’s hard to understand why it’s fine for them to go this year with thousands of cases but not last year with 100 or so, what has changed?

by MortgageBelt | 17th Feb 22, 6:30pm 1645075841

This will never happen in NZ:

“With falling hospitalisations, a strong vaccination rate and more than 50% of the eligible over-16 population boosted in NSW, we're now in a position to safely ease restrictions and help families and businesses keep moving forward.”

Dom Perrottet.

by The Person | 17th Feb 22, 11:03pm 1645092212

the vaccination rate has changed.

by HouseMouse | 17th Feb 22, 6:29pm 1645075793

My son has just been told by the engineering consultancy that he works for that they must all work from home now.

by Brock Landers | 17th Feb 22, 5:14pm 1645071283

Ardern didn't dismiss the whole Black Lives Matter idiocy as "imported" when they were all out flouting the lockdown rules.

Quite the opposite.

by DD62 | 17th Feb 22, 6:30pm 1645075800

Tigadee, the point is it is not making Comrade Adhern look all of the things you mention, she is all of those things! The most shallow PM we have ever had by a very long way! Unbelievably incompetent!!!

by Tigadee | 18th Feb 22, 10:54am 1645134893

I won't go to the extent of labelling her. I'm more interested in her actually doing something positive with this situation, rather than waffling and letting this drag on.

Clearly it is growing rather than fizzling out (which shows how out of touch the leadership, media and a portion of the population are), so she needs to take action (not condemnation which would lead to escalation) which will produce a positive outcome. And there are ways to achieve that, it's just that she hasn't either considered them or is unwilling to entertain them.

I'd say to her:

DO engage the protestors, if not directly then indirectly but show you are willing to have dialogue. Use one of your people or else even make use of those outside your party as a neutral party.

DON'T dismiss or condemn. Minority or not, this is still a sizable portion of the population and these ARE Kiwis. They do represent something in all of us who have been through the past two years together, no matter how we may view the protesters.

They represent a wildly varied range of issues which have been ignored for such a long time, which have come boiling to the fore concentrated in one setting - unemployment/job loss, housing affordability, cost of living, government inefficiency, poverty, class struggle, stagnant healthcare, education, social inequality, decreasing economic opportunities, and more.

by mfd | 17th Feb 22, 6:34pm 1645076068

Not surprising to see more DHB staff going on strike. My group has been negotiating since August last year, and have had precisely 1 offer from the DHBs which was a 0% this year and 1% next year deal. Since then we've had noise around a 1% lump sum 'sweetener' but no more formal offers.

The pay freeze simply has to go - no-one is going to settle for real term 7%+ pay cuts. It feels like the negotiating teams are just stalling until their mandate changes to something realistic. The Government are the only ones who can stop the Aussie recruiters phones from ringing...

by JimboJones | 17th Feb 22, 6:47pm 1645076879

Yep that pay freeze seems more and more odd by the day. Why freeze the pay of your most essential workers during a pandemic with 6% inflation? Bonkers.

by Foxglove. | 17th Feb 22, 6:44pm 1645076689

Unfortunate to read that mfd and unfortunately not surprised. Have appreciated your posts which soon realised were from the “coalface” and the balanced reasoning & information you have provided.

by tomjones_04 | 17th Feb 22, 5:07pm 1645070838

Mortgage belt. I really like the optimism. You may or may not be for high property prices… my feeling is that you are pro. It’s seems that there will be a lot of people leaving NZ too, I’m hoping it’s not a case of swapping the young and the brilliant for the young and the not so brilliant. What will be the impact on the economy and the housing market?? Maybe not the lifeline you are hoping for. I think the ponzi is on thin ice and I can hear cracks.

by MortgageBelt | 17th Feb 22, 5:37pm 1645072643

I’m agnostic on housing.

There’s likely to be an inbound surge affecting the general economy from Feb 28 surely?

by tomjones_04 | 17th Feb 22, 5:44pm 1645073095

“Agnostic on housing”… I really like that. I’m going to start using that. Kudos MB

by RickStrauss | 17th Feb 22, 6:14pm 1645074854

I'm "atheistic agnostic" on housing. Housing may or may not exist but our current myths about it are definitely made up by people wanting to control others and extract wealth from them.

by Foxglove. | 17th Feb 22, 6:24pm 1645075464

That sounds like the Greens indeed. Reaping in the wealth tax. All that explosion of late in house valuations has made the catchment, from the threshold, now vastly bigger and lucrative.

by RickStrauss | 17th Feb 22, 6:28pm 1645075692

It sounds like the status quo.

I'm more with conservative economist Milton Friedman, to be fair. All taxes are bad but land value tax is the least bad. Best thing we could do for NZ (for multiple generations rather than just the older and propertied ones) is raise LVT and precipitously reduce company income tax (75% of which is borne by employees in the form of lower wages). Addresses avoidance and evasion and rewards productive work.

by Averageman | 18th Feb 22, 3:31am 1645108271

100% agree.

by Smudge02 | 17th Feb 22, 5:25pm 1645071924

Interesting how we always ask how things are going to affect housing or the economy, but never how things are going to affect our society, communities and way of life. The reality is they are all crumbling while people are either chasing riches or simply trying to survive. Rampant serious crime, working poor and gated housing developments for the wealthy is around the corner.

by RickStrauss | 17th Feb 22, 6:29pm 1645075778

Greed would rather choose gated communities in which to hide from the problems than curtail the intergenerational wealth theft causing them.

by VTHO | 17th Feb 22, 7:16pm 1645078569

Word. All I hear from a family member is "economy this" and economy that" while some of his own children are struggling in the depths of hell. A life long blue tinted pair of sunnies and boomer privilege will do that to you.

by DTRH | 17th Feb 22, 6:40pm 1645076411

Mortgagebelt how many kiwis do you know coming back to live some will come back for visit but I think more 20 too 40 year olds will be leaving as cannot afford to buy house and have a family. A number of retired people I know have sold house and are going to Australia to be with family and see grandkid more often. And you are completely of the mark with interest rates in 12-18 months time 3% is a joke more like 7%

by MortgageBelt | 17th Feb 22, 7:12pm 1645078363

DT - well there’s been a lot of online commentary and self-stories of kiwis wanting to return but couldn’t due to the lottery system etc. You may be right - some may just return for an extended holiday or a year or so.

And yes I also know a few boomers heading for Aus to live to be closer to kids & grandkids - although NZ Super or Aus Pension with means testing is problematic for kiwis retiring there.

by VTHO | 17th Feb 22, 7:13pm 1645078408

I don't buy in to this angle. They have already had ~2 years to come home and get in via lottery. Most that have wanted to, already have. And the ones on the fence have now seen enough to know NZ is a basket case, therefore reducing returnee numbers even more. It is a non event.

by Justa comment | 17th Feb 22, 7:37pm 1645079866

MortgageBelt, you should do a radio show with Ashley Church and laugh and joke about the median house price being 2 milion in 6 years and how predictable and great that would be.

by MortgageBelt | 17th Feb 22, 8:29pm 1645082951

Lol - Just a commenter (new?). - think you have the wrong end of the stick.

I represent middle/struggle street not REAs

“The Mortgage belt is a term used in Australian (or NZ) politics to signify residential suburbs which have a high concentration of families mortgaging their homes.

Often the belt covers areas where homes could be considered more affordable yet the cost of servicing the mortgage loan represents a high proportion of the families' available income. Changes to cost of servicing a mortgage, seen through interest rate fluctuations, can trigger widespread satisfaction or dissatisfaction towards the government of the day”

by KH | 17th Feb 22, 4:54pm 1645070097

Gotta disagree with Mr Chaston.

Stable population is a great thing. The population explosion of the last ten years has been the disaster.

The older demographic is no great problem either.

Anybody noticed how Auckland is harder to get around than it used to be. And how they have no hope of paying for any of the solutions, poor as those are.

by J.C. | 17th Feb 22, 4:58pm 1645070309

Stable population is a great thing. The population explosion of the last ten years has been the disaster.

In the case of NZ, immigration has been driving GDP, even if GDP per capita is not increasing at a great rate (if at all).

Now look at Japan. Population been in serious decline, but GDP per capita has been growing steadily.

Who's in the better position: NZ or Japan?

by singautim | 17th Feb 22, 5:26pm 1645072012

Japan. They have better GDP per capita and better social cohesion. No schoolgirls ripping off Hijabs.

But no problem with immigration if they built their own houses and gave the govt funds that covered future superannuation and health care.

by Hardly | 17th Feb 22, 6:31pm 1645075867

They have a nice housing surplus. From memory 1 in 6 houses are empty and it’s going to 1 in 3.

by sit23 | 17th Feb 22, 10:21pm 1645089696

Try wearing your Rosary beads to a state school in Saudi Arabia. Making any sort of religious statement other than that approved of by the government is banned. When they come here, we do it their way. When we go there, we do it their way. Spot the anomaly.

by Pa1nter | 17th Feb 22, 6:53pm 1645077186

NZ, no question. China is further away, and don't want to murder us.

by Tigadee | 17th Feb 22, 4:58pm 1645070334

It astounds me that how inefficient and poorly-run infrastructure projects are in NZ. Having spent some time in Singapore, I can tell you that heads would have rolled if some of the budget blow-outs and delays that NZ projects have suffered would have occurred in that country.

It's as if NZ is having first world dreams and third world project planning...

by custard | 17th Feb 22, 5:22pm 1645071729

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/northern-corridor-motorway-upgrades-appro…

This, the Northern Corridor motorway upgrade, or perhaps more easily understood as the Constellation Drive Interchange – was given the green light late 2017 and is still work in progress.

I imagine it will be completed one day – I fear however that with the passage of time I may not be around to see it.

by Hamish | 17th Feb 22, 5:22pm 1645071721

and in the context of Omicron numbers ramping up, how better off would we be now if the health system wasn't several years behind the rapid population growth we've had?

by RickStrauss | 17th Feb 22, 6:15pm 1645074923

The older demographic is only a problem because too many are on a benefit and not paying their way.

by Nzdan | 17th Feb 22, 11:20pm 1645093221

"Grumble grumble we paid taxes all our lives therefore we're entitled to non-means tested welfare, we can double dip by working past 65 yet still claim welfare".

A cruel irony given the super is funded by today's younger taxpayers who I imagine would like to advance their careers if only people would actually retire.

by Uninterested | 17th Feb 22, 5:11pm 1645071081

I don't think the demography is being twisted!

In the absence of the primarily young-ish unskilled immigrant distortion. Its the baby boomers working their way out of the system. That's all. Completely natural and to be expected.

by Brock Landers | 17th Feb 22, 6:32pm 1645075923

Nobody is having babies. The housing disaster is the best contraceptive that exists. Starting a family in this country is nuts.

Combine that with driving all your working age people abroad.

Genius.

by Advisor | 17th Feb 22, 6:53pm 1645077227

Thanks to Labour and National, buying a simple house and starting a family are no longer personal choices, but luxuries reserved for the wealthy.

I feel bad for those who recently moved from other parts of the world with the false dream of high living standards in a social market utopia.

by HouseMouse | 17th Feb 22, 6:54pm 1645077269

Apparently quite a few young people no longer drive, no longer drink and no longer have sex. Maybe a few problems solved from those changing habits!

by JimboJones | 17th Feb 22, 7:52pm 1645080755

Eighteen or eighty?

by Pa1nter | 17th Feb 22, 6:55pm 1645077358

Not all, some of us can stick with things.

by Brock Landers | 17th Feb 22, 8:13pm 1645082007

I meant the good ones.

by DTRH | 17th Feb 22, 7:42pm 1645080134

People are having family’s but if they do just have enough money live a house is out of the question. I know some many moving into shared house with family or friends or going over to Aussie.

by NoRegrets | 17th Feb 22, 5:21pm 1645071707

Dropped the ball already?

Test turnaround now over 72 hours and little public access to RAT tests so you can self manage.

They had plenty of time to prepare and lots of offshore experience to review.

Incompetent.

by Wrong John | 17th Feb 22, 5:21pm 1645071715

There's a lot of poor leadership on display currently. At parliament, on the inside especially. Stories of people needing testing & being abused. Our health system is at breaking point. Big project management falling behind with huge cost blowouts. The one's in Tauranga have tripled in cost & still we wait - usually in queues on the roads. The state is now costing us more than a dollar to run for every two we earn. Soon it will be 50/50. Why have we become so dumb?

by kamo | 17th Feb 22, 6:45pm 1645076738

Yes I agree also really concerned have been traveling around the north Manh businesses will seize to exist . Many people are saying there turnover is down.

by DTRH | 17th Feb 22, 7:13pm 1645078423

With over 90% of people double jabbed time to stop mandates and vax passports waste of time omicron will not be stopped it’s here. This government needs people to get back to work in hospitals, nurses,doctors,medics testing is a joke this virus is going to be everywhere soon people will be in hospitals which from what I understand are run down not enough beds but rather than giving money to this area they gave money to business supporting there friends and pushing up house prices. Hopefully this government and parliament will find themselves in court the people will get to see any misdeeds of government or abuse of power

by Hastings | 17th Feb 22, 8:06pm 1645081597

It really does feel like the Labour Party's a spent force in NZ. Most of us who voted for them in good faith are severely disillusioned by the economic mismanagement and their treatment of nurses and health sector generally.

by Carlos67 | 17th Feb 22, 8:13pm 1645082025

Labour have had 2 years to strengthen the hospitals but they have done SFA. Plan A was to keep Covid out forever and they had no Plan B and now we are screwed. Labour is facing the perfect storm heading into the next election, just watch support for them drop to 20% and JA will quit.

by HouseMouse | 17th Feb 22, 8:21pm 1645082483

Total basketcase. Worst government ever. Even worse than the last lot.

by taimaiakka0 | 17th Feb 22, 7:57pm 1645081035

Only one data suggesting that house price growth has stalled and government goes into panic mode and are ready to tweak to support the ponzi.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/david-clark-govt-will-move-fast-on-…

When week by week, month by month....year by year data was suggesting that housing ponzi is touching new height with every data...government and RBNZ approach was wait and watch unlike today.

Need say more !

by False economies | 17th Feb 22, 8:29pm 1645082962

one data = datum

/pedantry

by Palmtree08 | 17th Feb 22, 7:57pm 1645081061

The "we must have population growth" is getting really old and boring as a meme. Unless we keep increasing the population beyond standing room only, we have to deal with this "problem" at some point, by ceasing to grow the population? Why not do it before quality of life is destroyed, along with our biosphere? In case anyone hasn't noticed, energy available to global citizens is now in decline. Growing population with declining energy resources, is beyond stupid!

by HouseMouse | 17th Feb 22, 7:58pm 1645081114

Nice cricket reference. Love me cricket.

by Squishy | 17th Feb 22, 9:23pm 1645086207

Our over 65 population rising faster (+24,500 in a year) and our working age population is actually shrinking now (-2,100 in a year). Closed borders are twisting our demography in a costly and ultimately unsustainable direction.

Almost every country in the OECD has the same issue. More widely if you think about the places New Zealand imports workers from Chinas population is aging and declining, Indias is only just above replacement rate but falling rapidly and the UK isn't doing any better than New Zealand. What's apparent to me is that the over-reliance on imported labour isn't sustainable either, it's a quick fix for a long term issue.