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Fed raises rates by +75 bps again as expected; markets react to Powell's remarks; US data positive except for housing market; Shanghai gets more lockdowns; Aussie CPI up; UST 10yr 2.73%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 62.6 USc; TWI-5 = 71

Business / news
Fed raises rates by +75 bps again as expected; markets react to Powell's remarks; US data positive except for housing market; Shanghai gets more lockdowns; Aussie CPI up; UST 10yr 2.73%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 62.6 USc; TWI-5 = 71

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the global economy is still adjusting to inflation, war, the pandemic and supply-chain issues.

First up, the US Fed raised its policy rates by +75 bps to 2.5%, unanimously, very much as expected, and for a second month in a row. While they acknowledged spending and output data had softened recently, they also said further rate rises are likely. Their commitment to clamping down on inflation is sort of being ignored by markets.

Markets handled this announcement with a surge in equities, a fall in bond yields, and a fall in the USD after the press conference remarks.

Meanwhile, US durable goods orders rose much more than expected in June from May and are now almost +12% higher than year-ago levels. Capital goods orders are up almost 7.5%.

And updated data out for inventories showing them rising in both the wholesale and retail sectors are at a pace that isn't worrying yet, but is probably not sustainable all the same, because they are up about a quarter from the same month a year ago, which was an unusual low point.

The American merchandise trade balance slipped a bit in June from May, but remains elevated, consistent with expanding demand and activity.

But their residential housing market is in trouble, with pending home sales falling sharply in June. They were down -8.6% nationwide from May as escalating mortgage rates and housing prices impacted potential buyers. That is -20% below year ago levels as activity in these markets shudders.

US mortgage applications fell again last week, the fourth consecutive retreat and the eighth in the past 12. Also falling were mortgage interest rates but that doesn't seem to be helping.

In Shanghai, significant parts of the city are back in lockdown as Covid cases spread fast. Drivers and delivery personal, as well as ‘closed-loop’ quarantine staff, have been spreading the pandemic across the city, officials say. Its an ominous sign for the Chinese end of supply chains. Shanghai isn't the only center grappling with these pressures.

In Europe, they are learning how to cope with a fast shutoff of gas from Russia, more variable daily now. The squeeze is on. And German consumer sentiment is taking a hit from all this uncertainty, especially as it drives inflation.

In Australia, their June CPI data came in at 6.1% year-on-year and just below analysts expectations of +6.2%. But that was up from +5.1% at March. It was also their highest level in more than 20 years (and the 20-yr-ago peak was when they introduced GST). Apart from that, it is their highest since 1990. Perhaps signaling that this could be their new peak, the Q-on-Q rate slipped from +2.1% in March to +1.8% in June. But this probably locks in another +50 bps hike on Tuesday, August 2, by the RBA. For perspective the New Zealand June CPI rose +7.3%, the US was up +9.1% and Japan was up +2.4% for the same annual period. Canada's CPI rose +8.1%. All these comparables make the Aussie rise seem moderate - even if they don't think so.

The UST 10yr yield started today at 2.77% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. Then after the Fed press conference it slid further, down another -4 bps. The UST 2-10 rate curve is marginally more inverted today, now at -28 bps and their 1-5 curve is also more inverted at -22 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is now at +61 bps and fractionally flatter than this time yesterday. The Australian ten year bond is down a massive -15 bps at 3.19%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.79%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today lower by -6 bps at 3.55%.

Wall Street has opened its Wednesday session unruffled by the Fed and up +1.5% trade before the chairman's press conference. But after that it surged, now up +2.5%. And that is despite some tech earnings reports that weren't flash. Overnight, European markets closed up about +0.5%. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Wednesday session up +0.2%, Hong Kong fell -1.1% and Shanghai ended flat. The ASX200 ended up +0.2% while the NZX50 lost -0.3% at the end.

The price of gold will open today at US$1721/oz in New York which is up +US$3 from this time yesterday.

And oil prices are +US$1.50 firmer today at just over US$96.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$101.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar opened today little-changed from this time yesterday at 62.2 USc. Then after Powell's remarks it rose to 62.6 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are also softer at 89.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also softer at 61.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 71 and little-changed.

The bitcoin price has risen from this time yesterday, it has make back +3.5% to US$21,667. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/-2.2%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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103 Comments

Atlanta Fed GDP predictor says US recession (as defined by 2 contracting quarters of GDP) is here NOW. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Official figures come out in next 48 hours...........

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Recession- Data confirms or not, truth is that many are in depression, though the number has not reached its peak or is as high as the effect of rising interest is yet to be felt by many and it normally takes few months for the real effect to kick i

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Doesn’t feel like a depression in Queenstown yet.       It did during the Auckland lockdown 

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FED has its arms tied as we do. As they lift we have no choice but to match otherwise the NZD will truely be the pacific peso. $5.00 petrol sound fun...ah no.

More to come. 

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The reality is, our NZD has been falling against the USD, despite the fact that our Reserve Bank has raised interest rates sharper, and all the way to 2.5% before the FED did.  What does this tell us? 

You say we have no choice to lift, otherwise the NZD will be the Pacific Peso.  I say, our private debt levels are higher than in the US and our economy is more housing-dependent.  The more we lift our interest rates, the more we are destroying our economy.  This is reflected in foreign exchange rates, and this is the reason why the NZD is falling. Ironically, a falling NZD means higher imported inflation.

In other words, raising our OCR may not actually help fighting inflation (which is largely driven by commodity prices and supply chains).  Instead, raising the OCR may make inflation worse, whilst crippling our economy and triggering a severe risk of a chain of credit defaults.  The exchange rate could be a warning sign in that sense. 

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Well said Markus. It's great having an intelligent contributer like you, nkTokyo, Jfoe and agnostium on this forum.

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Another perspective on this, using similar logic, is that we have made our economy worse over the last 20 years by dropping interest rates when we imported deflation by buying cheap consumer items in the CPI basket from Asia. 
 

It’s resulted in asset bubbles and excessive private debt levels relative to GDP/incomes/productivity.  Had we avoided doing this, we wouldn’t be in the mess you mention in your post above, now. So is it stupid to raise rates now to counter imported inflation, or were we stupid by dropping rates the previous 20 years as we imported deflationary forces? My argument is for both…but the damages has already been done. 

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Higher interest rates encourage us to move (mildly) from a debt based economy to an asset based one. That's better business. 

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That's absolutely not the case KH, by your logic Switzerland would be a weak debt based economy and South Africa a low debt growth story. Both the polar opposite.

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No we move to a productivity based economy away from a speculative economy.

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Our economy has failed to keep up with other Western nations, never moving on from bulk commodities and low-value service exports, in fact doubling down on it in recent decades.

Huge asset bubbles and widening current account deficits are byproducts of the excessive private debt that has helped maintain "first world" living standards with "third world" wages.

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Exactly, our economy has been on life support for many years. If we look at the correlation between our GDP figures and OCR movements for the past 10 years. You will find all those simulations (dropping OCR) had been done were not helping our economy to recover but to continue to blow the assets bubble. Our economy was destroyed long time ago when they actually allowed relentless borrowing for home buyers. OCR is just coming back to its neutral. In fact, the inflation pressure has already started building up even before Covid. Yet, RBNZ had slashed a big 50bps on OCR based on nothing in 2019. So we can not complain OCR is hiking up as it's necessary for price stability, what comes down will need to go up (OCR), what goes up will need to come down (housing price). 

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I think there's a bit of chicken and egg here but generally, since the GFC we've been exposed to lower interest rates than were required (and responded by inflating a debt laden housing bubble) because NZ rates were dragged lower by the G3 (who did need the monetary stimulus, arguably).  Now that that stimulus has been withdrawn in the G3, NZ rates need to move higher to match, hence NZ is in for a bit of a rebalance of its economy away from housing and back to exporting etc.

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hence NZ is in for a bit of a rebalance of its economy away from housing and back to exporting

Such rebalancing will require bipartisan support on policy reforms, huge investments in training and infrastructure, and strong business leadership. 

NZ's largest industries, even pre-pandemic, were either housing-driven (owner-occupier operations, rental & real estate, construction) or inward-looking/import-driven (retail, wholesale, financial services).

The biggest export-related industries appeared down below at #10, #11 and #12 - education, agriculture and food manufacturing.

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problem is ACB, i don't think the Government gets it. I believe a major lesson from the COVID crisis is the need for national resilience, but many and I believe the Government are in this group, think that it is not possible to rebuild manufacturing and tech industries. But I would suggest that this is just wrong. Yes it will cost, but it will never be cheaper than to do it now. Rebuilding manufacturing at all levels in NZ creates jobs, supplies the local market, and when there is a focus on quality, has export potential. It will also stimulate the economy in ways the Government has utterly failed to do. 

But after doing a LOT of reading, I would also suggest that the Government must also restrict the amount of credit banks can pump into housing mortgages, to limit an unbalanced economy. There is much more that the Government could be doing rather than sitting on it's hands and frankly, appearing (and demonstrating?) that it doesn't have a clue. A big concern is National too, as so far there doesn't seem to be much of an indication that they have a vision either.

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Exactly. And the more we destroy our economy, the weaker our dollar will be, in 6 months. 
I really don’t buy the argument of lifting the OCR to keep the dollar stronger (for now).

It really is can-kicking.

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Haven't we been can kicking by dropping interest rates GFC - now? But now we are also can kicking by raising interest rates in the face of inflation, in a manner that may bring back financial stability over the longer term?

Remember that destruction is the path to stability.....when you have created excessive instability. 

Destruction creates an antifragile economy...avoidance of destruction creates a fragile economy. 

 

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All these comments are based on NZ having some semblance of control of its economy. The housing market will take a bath, along with the economy, I don't see any other option. There will be no slow deflation, there will be a prolonged implosion.

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Markus go and read the last OCR policy statement from the RBNZ. There is a pdf doc with about thirty pages in it. One of the graphs shows the relationship between our exchange rate and export prices….they are closely aligned over a long period of time.Our export prices obtained determine our exchange rate.

Maybe loosen the tin foil hat and stop theorising someone is out to get you. Maybe take some time to reflect on your own exposure to interest rate increases and take some personal responsibility. Just saying.

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Turkey is trying out your approach of not raising OCR to address inflation, how is that working out for them? 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/turkeys-interest-rate-gamble-blows-…

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 I was there a few weeks ago, they seem to be doing just fine.

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80% inflation rate. Tis but a scratch..

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Well s(*& must have been really cheap before because I ate like a king and stayed in amazing accom in Istanbul for leass than half the price of here.

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I presuming you didn't pre-purchase your Lira last year?  In which case, paying in NZD, the exchange rate has balanced out the inflation for you.

Not something the locals with wages and savings in New Turkish Lira can benefit from.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=NZD&to=TRY

First time i was in Turkey, the ATMS had buttons for adding ,000,000 to the amount you wanted to withdraw.  Looks like they are going to need to add them back, or come out with New New Turkish Lira.

 

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How were the falafels?

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Maybe you should offload your properties then instead of hoping and praying that RBNZ decouples from the global economy?

Its inevitable.

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The reality is the government spent billions of dollars they did not have propping up an unproductive economy.  It was never a supply chain issue, it was a demand issue created from excessive government handouts.  2.5% OCR, 'whipty do'.  The savers (retirement money in the bank) and the wage earners (you know the productive work force), have been decimated.  Banks now only lend to the wealthy (asset holders), that is why interest rates will never rise to where they should be, above the tax rate called inflation.  Interest should be at least 9%.  Ever heard of the saying, you will own nothing and be happy!

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Just goes to show... sometimes you can ignore risk and ignore risk and ignore risk for years...  and do really well...  but eventually risk catches up on ya and bites ya on the bum.

Kiwis have been ignoring risk for many years... buying real estate at higher and higher prices.     Using the house as an ATM to buy flash boats and cars.   It all seemed so clever in the good times.    So many people looked down on me because I was renting.   "Everyone" thought that renters could have no useful knowledge about investing.    Only the landlords were the clever ones who were "getting ahead".    Only the rent seekers were "winners".  So many harsh comments on this site about renters being losers.    So much hubris. 

And now this is the point where we FINALLY realize as a nation that the RBNZ does not really control interest rates.    Here comes the bit where there is a collective realization that we are just a tiny little economy that must follow in the wake of the big players.    And our stupid, stupid little housing bubble is about to be obliterated, 75 basis points at a time.   Like a dinghy in the path of an ocean liner.    Bahahahaha!      

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Yep really will be sinking in very quickly now. I believe there are still many out there who still don’t fully understand the full gravity of what is happening and somehow think that we will be back the the “good ol’ times” soon, but they are deluded.
 

I personally hope we never again see the immense greed, selfishness and narcissism that pumped up this shite bubble that is NZ Property.

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I personally hope we never again see the immense greed, selfishness and narcissism that pumped up this shite bubble that is NZ Property.

Yeah, it will be crazy if they are gonna do that again.

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Never underestimate stupid

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It feels like we are reaching peak stupid

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So where are you investing and how are your investments performing for yeild and growth?

Have your accommodation costs fallen? 

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Don't you worry about Daggy Boy.

   - Fred Dagg.

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Everything is relative, housing investers and home owners are taking losses, but you can't look at this in isolation. How is it comparing to other asset classes? If you are claiming to have made better choices please elaborate. Of course diversity is optimal but for most securing their own home meets a basic need of shelter and is initially a priority. 

To rent as an investment choice is OK if you have a good hedge against rent rises as to choose to rent is a commitment to lifelong rental payments/liability. Any analysis of the benefits of renting should look at opportunity costs in this case the capital gain you have missed out on over the years of renting vs the gains you have experienced in your alternative strategy. 

 

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I think you're misunderstanding the issue.  The approach we have taken has f**ed us all. It's not about whether you personally have done better of worse than the next guy. We're all going to suffer because of the approach taken.  When the dust settles some renters will be better off than those that bought and some property owners will be better off than renters but overall we'll all be worse off because of the overinflated housing prices and policies that supported them 

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Exactly.  Now we have half the population thinking they are zillionaires, but can't get someone to be their nurse or paint their spare houses.

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Fred went to Aus

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Is this not a characteristic of  Pyramid  Ponzi Scheme. Legal as is well supported and promoted by reserve bank and government.

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when house prices are consistently going up by 8-10% and wages 2-3% (debatable if keeping up with inflation) how can that be sustainable and not a ponzi.

It requires more and more credit expansion and with wages not going anywhere they only way to keep pumping the ponzi is lower and lower interest rates to the point in which they are negative in real terms, which means its a subsidy. 

The end of the road has been found!

From here the only was the ponzi can be sustained it to extend mortgage lenghts (maybe out to 50yrs) or further subsidies, as we draw closer and closer to socialism.

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What percentage of NZ’s population is unaffected. That being households that only own their own home, no other property. They are neither speculator nor investor beyond their own means. It was posted here not long ago that about 70% of such homeowners are not mortgaged. That is not an inconsequential factor relative to NZ’s housing base. Value may rise & fall, as boats in the harbour on the tide, but fundamentally the asset just remains as a home.

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Ponzis rely on new entrants, to pay for the ones coming out of the top of the pyramid

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Precisely - the immigration pumps are idling, but have no fear they will soon be primed for increased flow rate.

Expressions of interest wanted from self starters looking to get ahead on the Golden Kiwi pyramid to prosperity.

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No great fan myself of the late Dr Cullen but nonetheless, he was exactly right when he said back in November 2020 “It is bad enough that we keep seeing new rungs added to the top of the house price ladder. It is even worse when those rungs are being taken from the bottom of the ladder.”

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Cullen just took the rungs off the bottom by raising minimum wage to the highest in the OECD. Rungs out of the middle with Working for Families by trapping workers by taking any wage gains away by removing WFF benefits.

Rung removal to trap people in welfare. Kind.

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We are well past socialism.

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"So many people looked down on me because I was renting. "

Me too. Same with gold. An "ancient relic", cash on hand, and now suitable short term TDs  portfolio is doing quite well thank you given that I bought gold at the right time. mocked as a simpleton by "the smart money". 

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Fitz, your frustration as a renter who has been missing out for so many years is understandable. I don't think people look down on renters though, this might be your insecurity talking. I certainly wouldn't look down on renters, my parents have been renting their whole life. But apart from "schadenfreude" I fail to see the point of your post. Also how is "Bahahahaha" going to help you?

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I could be wrong but what I took from the post and whole heartedly agree with, is the they looked at the risk in rising property prices and related debt and saw it as huge. But since GFC in particular as well as prior these risks have been glossed over and even temporarily mitigated by verious administrations 

But the chickens will eventually come home.

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Yes, those obvious risks have kept me renting, and I was told things on this site last year that imply I really am being a bit silly.  We shall see.

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Its the sheer inability of people to look at all the information and data and come up with a rational decision.

Rather than do that there is mass herd mentality that have 100% faith in "the system" and politicians, despite the fact that history provides examples of repeated failures.

Those in that group are always destined to find out the hard way...

 

 

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I used to think so too but it's just not true.Those in that group, who joined the herd and bought houses over the last many years, have done extremely well for themselves!

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Yvil, I dont believe you to be in that group, or for that fact most people on this site.

 

Would you have bought November last year because of fomo? 

 

I know a young couple, and explained all the consequences of buying in the current environment, they bought anyway and would now be in negative equity already. It may work out for them in the long run, but their ignorance towards all the indicators that we were headed down has probably cost them $150K to this point

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Well I bought a house in July last year and I'm extremely happy I did.

Of course you can find the poor sod who bought at the worst time and overstretched himself but the vast majority of people who bought over the last 2, 3, 4 5 years and more have made the right decision to buy. 

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Up until now. We'll see how well everyone does as this plays out.  I do agree with Markus that the NZ economy is mainly housing so when it crashes everything comes down with it. So those people who bought houses and did well will now face the consequences of a crashing economy. Of course, they will not see the link between their decisions to borrow money to buy houses at inflated prices and the subsequent economic impacts on the country. 

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Fitzgerald, you complain about hubris. Yet your 'contribution' here ends with "Bahahahaha".  Some hubris on your part?  You take delight in the suffering of others.  I find that despicable.

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Well a balanced portfolio that includes a house is probably better in the long run. i don't feel sorry for those that over stretched themselves, there are always entry level houses to enter the property market. that's how I entered, it was never a dream house but a foot in the door. Where most of the pain will come from are those that went for the third or fourth stage house in their first go, and got the boat and ranger to go with it. But not everyone is like that. I managed to lock in very low rates on the balance of my mortgage for three years, I'm at my fourth stage house, no need to move, so price raise and fall does not matter much, but have used low rates to nail my mortgage. I know of several others that did the same, so not doom and gloom for everyone in the property market.

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I agree. A house is an important component of a diversified portfolio. The insanity of the NZ system has been that many people seemingly see the next logical investment (even before they’ve paid off the first one) as being another house. If New Zealanders had bought house A and then invested in shares and bonds we wouldn’t be in this pickle.

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I disagree only in that we have allowed the insanity of the banks controlling house prices by lending more and more on what is in reality a depreciating asset. And for that insanity we all pay via those massive profits syphoned from the productive parts of the economy.

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1987.

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Renters are the WINNERS !

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Winners of what? It's not a competition, it's not "us vs them". Renters need landlords to rent a house to them and landlords need renters to rent a house from them. The "us vs them" mentality us unhealthy

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And motel owners need MSD (and the taxpayer) to get rich very quickly.

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You seem to have a problem with Motels replacing the lost international tourists with providing emergency accommodation, to survive.

Why is that? Is it because you can't stand other people making money?

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"I would never rent a house to a beneficiary."

   - Yvil.

Let them eat cake.

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Yes, I would never rent a house to a person getting their income from WINZ, I stand by that, it's far too much work.

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Fitz, have you ever rented to a WINZ recipient? If so how did it go for you?

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Most Landlords are Renters. They just rent the property from the Bank. And that Landlord is going to be even more Nasty than any Mom and Dad investor Landlord . Especially on the 17th of August. Oh the irony of it all.  And rents are going down !  But NOT for the INVESTOR RENTER.

As The Prophet aways said.  The Pendulum Always Swings.

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"Most Landlords are Renters. They just rent the property from the Bank"

LOL, the ultimate fallacy to try to make a renter feel better.  It's rubbish that will keep renters renting. 

A far better concept would be to stop arguing, be humble and learn from those who have successfully achieved what you want.

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Say one of these WINNERS has actually bought a house at the average price this time in 2019 they would have had to pay $696,857 they would have made a paper gain of $366,908‬  (Avg $1,063,765) by January of 2022.  Not sure how much of a winner misses out on that.

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Key Words - Paper Gains. 

Those Paper Gains will be evaporated by December.  

Mum and Dad Investors are always the Last to know what is going on so they wont know to sell until December.

In fact Mum and Dad investors would of bought more near the peak. 

Not only would those Paper Gains be long gone, but they will be in the hole, a deep dark hole.

Interest rate rises on their very large mortgages for the Johnny come lately will be defaulting very soon.

This is how the Renters Become The Winners.

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They blew my brains

Those paper gains.

I took my gains

I took 'em all.

I bought a car, I bought a ball.

I bought a rental in Tokoroa,

And the wifey a feather boa.

Please would somebody explain

In a falling market what happens to the gain?

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They become paper losses.

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Fitz you completely overlook the problem. the fact that you chose to rent and are happy with that choice is great. But the problem is not that, it is all those who are renting because they have no other choice because of overly inflated house prices, and parasitic landlords who are fleecing their tenants with unaffordable rents ("It's the market rent dontcha' know?). There will always be people who will choose for their own reasons to rent rather than own even if house prices were extremely cheap, but the important thing is having the choice not being deprived of it because the Government and Banks are screwing the economy at the behest of a few. 

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I absolutely, completely agree.

So many in my social circle are hardworking nurses, teachers, aged care workers, office workers.   All locked out of home ownership.   Forced to rent in their 30s and 40s.

And they are the "desirable" tenants that all the landlord leeches want.  The "undesirable" ones are thrown on the scrap heap of society - forced to survive day to day in Yvils motel.    The landlords leverage up, suck up all the housing stock, and then force other people into serfdom.

Anybody charging "market rent" for a not-new house is a greedy sod who deserves to go bust when the bubble implodes.

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All the landlords I know are quick to tell everyone they charge below market rent. All of them.

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But Beanie, that doesn't make se... oh

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Here's some other financial news. The $350 payout  link  . 164,000 over stayers? Incredible that the IRD or another govt. department doesn't have the bank details

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There is a good discussion going on in the US about what a recession even means in an economy so large. US employment rates are high and Americans are already consuming many, many times more resources than they actually need. Their challenge is not growth - it is working out how they distribute resource / consumption more fairly, how they get off fossil fuels, and how they stop parasitic financiers extracting value from their economy into tax havens and billion dollar vanity purchases (rocket ship anyone?).     

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Biden has taken America for a ride! He had his priorities straightened out much before any of us. Leopard doesn't change its spots. When he & his minions spoke of 'foreign policy for middle class,' we should have known it's baloney. Biden presidency is Pelosi's gift to America! Link

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Translation.  Lets grow the military industrial complex, to create more real or even imaginary wars, to ensure continued public support for the massive investment in military weaponry, that enriches Wall Street (the elites as they like to call themselves).

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They are definitely in a recession!!!

 

The debate is if a recession is really that bad a thing, after pouring $4T into the economy. It would need the money printer to keep going on hyperdrive to keep GDP at its falsely elevated levels.

 

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The USA is not getting off fossil fuels, they will only consume more.  The parasitic financiers are the Wall Street bankers and as long as they have the ability to create money out of thin air, they will financialize everything, from our health, to water, food, even carbon.

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Nice day for Ethereum - up 15%.

It was only $800 a month ago or so.  100% return in a short space of time.  

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🚀

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BTC up 7% so far today..or as David would say a mere 7%

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Isnt it just making up what it lost over the last week?

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Yes its touching its local high.  But like I said, its doubled in around 5-6 weeks

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Nice day for Ethereum - up 15%.

Well played Wolfie. Only back to the price level as of 4 days ago. You need strong mettle to be with ETH in the past 8 months. Solid accumulation over past 3-4 years has been a good game.  

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When everyone realised how pointless NFTs were and ETH crashed I considered crystalizing my losses and dumping ETH. Glad I kept it.

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The fed rate is now equal to the OCR. When was the last time that happened? In my memory the OCR was always higher than the fed rate

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In Europe, they are learning how to cope with a fast shutoff of gas from Russia, more variable daily now. The squeeze is on.

Now it's easy, by the end of October it's going to get really tough.

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Time to move to Russia?

This horror chart suggests that #Germany is heading for a huge energy crisis. Not only are gas prices near record highs, but electricity prices in particular are signaling stress. Link

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Some researchers at Yale believes the Russian economy is in pathetic shape and it is only going to get worse with the mass exodus of wealth and human capital to safe havens.

Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian, Franek Sokolowski, Michal Wyrebkowski, Mateusz Kasprowicz :: SSRN

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You cannot cripple a Billionaire. Russians with money are going nowhere do you think they are so stupid as to risk getting all their money confiscated in an overseas account ? People need to look in the mirror the same thing is happening world over fewer and fewer are ending up with it all.

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Audaxes - time to start fracking and end running energy policy based on rantings of a hysterical teenage girl.

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Trump was right, drill baby drill.

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The claims made are about the Russian economy.  What is the relevance of your comment?  Are you suggesting most Russians are Billionaires so the economy will be fine?

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Nope the point is sanctions have no effect on the people they are aimed at. Billionaires don't care if people are dying on the street in Russia as usual it's the people with nothing that come out second best. 

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And if the sanctions weaken the military industrial complex, who cares about the billionaires?  You should read the article.

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You first ...

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Please do

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Rents going down, as I have predicted. 
Fuel way down. Construction costs stabilising. Food prices increasing but less so. 
 

I am more confident than ever that inflation is on its way down.

I await the tsunami of criticism…

https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/renting/129391217/big-increase-i…

 

 

 

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