A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; quiet on the rates front, busy at the border, losses at the NZSF, a one-off public holiday, swaps quiet, NZ stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Gold Band Finance increased their 3,4 & 5 year term deposit rates.

THE TIDE IS TURNING
The number of foreign migrants coming to NZ is slowly but steadily rising, so the population change from migration is likely to turn positive in the next few months.

RECOVERING QUITE QUICKLY
Inbound tourist arrival numbers increased by +42% in July from June 2022. There were 134,200 arrivals in July, so it is back to more than half the 255,900 arrivals in July 2019.

EXTRA SAD IN TIMARU
The national day of mourning for the British Queen will be held here as a public holiday on Monday, September 26. This is the weekend when Daylight Savings starts. It is also South Canterbury's Anniversary Day, so I guess they will miss out on the 'extra' public holiday. (?)

BACK TO 'NORMAL'?
The Government has declared that the COVID-19 emergency is over. More here.

BIG RETREAT, BUT LESS THAN BENCHMARK
The NZ Super Fund says the days of 'extraordinarily high returns' are over. The fund, established to help out with NZ future pension requirements, was hit by turbulent global markets in the past year, but swam strongly against the tide despite dropping -$3.3 bln in value.

NET GAINS
Last week, the NZX capitalisation rose +0.7%, another good gain from the prior week. Heavyweight Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH, #1) was up 2.1% for the week. The biggest rise from Pacific Edge (PEB, #41), up +8.7%. Fonterra (FSF, #48) was up +7.2%. Going the other way, Vista Group (VGL, #43) was down a very chunky -10.6% for the week.

CHINA PAYS UP, AGAIN
China and Australia may have their high-profile squabbles, and China may have thrown its hand in with Russia. But China also knows Russia is an unreliable partner. In 2021, China bought 2.2 mln tonnes of Australian wheat and it cost them about US$500 mln. In 2022 they will buy 6.3 mln tonnes and it will cost them more than US$2 bln. China seems trapped into relying on Australian-sourced commodities, be it wheat or iron ore or coal. No wonder Australia is generating huge surpluses - China is paying, despite the disrespect China perceives from Australia.

THE NEXT LOGISTICS THREAT
After last week's brush-by from Typhoon Hinnamnor (which temporarily closed a major container port (Yangshan), the weather tracking suggests Shanghai could get a direct hit from the next on heading its way, Typhoon Muifa.

SWAP RATES SEE LITTLE ACTION
Wholesale swap rates are probably unchanged today across the curve. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +4 bps at 3.58%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.57% and unchanged from this morning. The China 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 2.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 3.93% and down -2 bps from this morning's open and still the same as the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond at 3.93%. The UST 10 year is now at 3.33% and little-changed from this where we started this morning.

EQUITIES MIXED BUT MINIMAL
After a good run last week the NZX50 has opened up just +0.1% in late trading today. That is a mirror of the Aussie trade; after a poor run last week, the ASX200 is up a strongish +1.1% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo is also up +1.1% in morning trade. Hong Kong and Shanghai are closed for their holiday (Mid-Autumn Festival). The S&P500 futures are flat, not giving anything away on how Wall Street will open tomorrow.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is down just US$2 from this morning to US$1,715/oz.

NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed 61.1 USc. Against the AUD we are also little-changed at 89.4 AUc. Against the euro we are now at 60.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is little-changed at 70.5.

BITCOIN RECOVERS FURTHER
Bitcoin has recovered some more, now at US$21,832 and up +0.8% from this morning's open. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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