The number of foreign migrants coming to New Zealand continues to slowly but steadily increase but still remains well below pre-pandemic levels.
Statistics NZ estimates 5621 non-NZ citizens came to NZ long term in July, which was the sixth consecutive month their numbers have increased from a low point of 1639 in January.
However the number of non-NZ citizens leaving the country long term has also been rising over the last few months with an estimated 4425 departing in July.
That reduced the net gain to 1197 in July, which was the highest it has been since March 2020, when pandemic travel restrictions were first introduced.
By comparison, in July 2019, before Covid-19 appeared on these shores, there was a net gain of 6573 non-NZ migrants.
However there is still an overall loss of population from migration because more NZ citizens are leaving the country long term than are arriving back long term.
In July Statistics NZ estimates 2247 NZ citizens arrived back long term, which was the highest number since July last year, while 3820 departed long term, leading to a net loss 1573 NZ citizens for the month.
That pushed the net population change form migration to a net loss of 376 in July.
However those figures are early estimates by Statistics NZ which are subject to revision. But even allowing for potential revisions, some overall trends are apparent.
The figures suggest that the number of NZ citizens arriving into and leaving from this country are much closer to pre-pandemic levels than the figures for non-NZ citizens, but so far they do not suggest a mass exodus of NZ citizens, sometimes referred to as a brain drain.
Although the number of non-NZ citizens migrating to NZ remains very low, it is slowly increasing.
If current trends continue, it's likely that population change from migration will turn from a net loss to a net gain at some stage over the next few months.
An explanation as to how Statistics NZ calculates and revises it's migration figures is available here.
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58 Comments
In July Statistics NZ estimates 2247 NZ citizens arrived back long term, which was the highest number since July last year, while 3820 departed long term, leading to a net loss 1573 NZ citizens for the month.
Is that a flood, or a torrent?
Is it possible for a political party, that isn't left-wing ridiculous, but also not about to open up the country again to a horde of Chinese immigrants?
Just saying some genuine middle ground would be nice...
Really it's not much of a choice right now isn't it?
So Indian, South African, Filipino, Russian and other immigrants are fine, just not Chinese?
You left out British..
Yvil's itching to troll someone😈
We all know what Fluffy bunny means by "middle ground"
Why do you have to wave the race card?
Please no more british... feel like our country has ground to a halt with so many british migrants arriving brining their over the top beuracracy with them... Sometimes Wellington just feels like little Britain...
I think some want to go back to the glorious (racist) 70s where we had immigration policy that heavily favoured "white" countries, and dawn raided Polynesians
Perhaps we should be asking what exactly the point of immigration is?
If it is to ensure that we can tick the right boxes for diversity quotas, then we should probably be recruiting from sub-Saharan Africa, because New Zealand is severely lacking in those ethnicities.
If the goal is to actually improve our society, by bringing in culturally and linguistically compatible, educated people that have the skills we actually need, then there is going to be a clear bias towards developed, western countries.
So what do we want our society to look like?
Polynesians are much more culturally and linguistically compatible with Maori, by your logic they should be allowed in and those of European descent should be discouraged
The vast majority of those with Maori ancestry are culturally western and speak English as their first (and usually only) language.
That's absolute kaka, but you're probably ignorant enough to think it's true.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/1-in-5-maori-people-speak-te-reo-maori/
Cool story, but most of us speak English.
"cool story", you sound about 13. Your ignorance knows no bounds, are you John Banks in disguise? 33% said that understood it fairly well. Then you'll be moaning when a University or Tech translates text books and courses into Te Reo, moaning when it's spoken on TV, moaning relentlessly. You stay over there on whoever mob's country you're on Brock, have you been welcomed to country??
I don't want to be so condescending as to question your ability to understand percentages, but here we are... ?
I do admire your ability to moan about moaning so much in one sentence.
What's the point of translating modern concepts in text books or courses into Te Reo anyway? It's usually just the English word with a few minor phonetic adjustments. It's pointless obsfucation.
Yeah bit like the Whitakers thing, had to laugh. Kirimi = creamy. Massive win for maori culture to just force people to say the English word with a Maori accent. And "motoka" = car, "kawhe" = coffee etc etc.
At least they used Waka when renaming our transport agency which was an existing Maori word, although Waka are not generally compatible with roads.
CREAMY
early 14c., creyme, "the rich and buttery part of milk," from Old French cresme, craime, creme "chrism, holy oil" (13c., Modern French crème). This word is a blend of Late Latin chrisma "ointment" (from Greek khrisma "unguent;" from PIE root *ghrei "to rub") and Late Latin cramum "cream," which is of uncertain origin, perhaps from Gaulish. The French word replaced Old English ream; it was re-borrowed 19c. as creme.
CAR
c. 1300, "wheeled vehicle," from Anglo-French carre, Old North French carre, from Vulgar Latin *carra, related to Latin carrum, carrus (plural carra), originally "two-wheeled Celtic war chariot," from Gaulish karros, a Celtic word (compare Old Irish and Welsh carr "cart, wagon," Breton karr "chariot"), from PIE *krsos, from root *kers- "to run."
COFFEE
"drink made from the ground and roasted seeds of a tree originally native to Arabia and Abyssinia," c. 1600, from Dutch koffie, from Turkish kahveh, from Arabic qahwah "coffee," which Arab etymologists connected with a word meaning "wine," but it is perhaps rather from the Kaffa region of Ethiopia, a home of the plant (coffee in Kaffa is called būno, which itself was borrowed into Arabic as bunn "raw coffee").
The early forms of the word in English indicate a derivation from Arabic or Turkish: chaoua (1598), cahve, kahui, etc. French café, German Kaffe are via Italian caffè.
Te Kooti-In 50+ years in NZ, and travelling extensively through the country I have only heard Maori spoken natively in 2 natural settings. Once in Whakatane and the other in Ohope. In both cases the speakers were clearly elders (Kuia? feminine). Whilst I hear it frequently as part of powhiris at conferences it is dwarfed by the Mandarin, Tongan and Samoan I hear daily/weekly (Manukau-healthcare industry). I'd propose less than 2% of the population could ask the following in Te reo "I have lost my car keys and need some help getting home. Do you have a phone I could borrow to call my neighbour?"
Disclaimer-I speak Spanish and am often branded a racist but enjoyed teaching a friend from Kosovo last week a new Maori word each day. He works as a translator and is multi-lingual.
Brock-I'm with you 100%. Anytime a person opposes a Maori proposal, action or use of te reo they are labelled racist.
@brock landers “If the goal is to actually improve our society, by bringing in culturally and linguistically compatible, educated people that have the skills we actually need, then there is going to be a clear bias towards developed, western countries”
I’m just curious as to why you think people from just western countries and not skilled labour from Asia/south east Asia is the solution? Doesn’t sound like a keep NZ white thing at all….
I havent proposed any solution (or problem).
But it's staring you right in the face. Cultural and linguistic compatibility. It's easier to work with and to assimilate into society people that share our language and have similar cultural norms and traditions.
Are you hinting that there is something wrong with New Zealand remaining New Zealand? Why?
@brock_landers you do realise most Asian, Indian people that fill massive skills gaps in NZ in fact speak great English and in some instances are more educated than locals (hence fill gaps) Im all for strength in diversity. New Zealand remaining New Zealand? Then NZ would be without Europeans. Clearly you’re for keeping NZ white. Can’t believe the backwards mentality. Singh, Wang and Li are the top surnames of new borns in Auckland, so better get used to it.
Almost everybody from the Anglosphere speaks English natively and has similar norms, customs and traditions... culture.
In comparison a very small percentage of people from the places you mention speak great English.
Clearly you're for demographic transformation of New Zealand into something else?
Have we achieved peak diversity when all the newborns have the same surnames? Perhaps we should be sourcing people from more diverse parts of the world?
@brock landers mate you’re a total clown. “In comparison a very small percentage of people from the places you mention speak great English”
You couldn’t be more incorrect. Don’t confuse accents that don’t sound “kiwi” for bad English. I’ve worked at some of the largest NZ companies and people from exactly those locations fill massive skill gaps and arguably speak better English, the standard of education in NZ is also pretty shit. Clearly you’re a older racist white male who wants white immigrants and who thinks other immigrants don’t speak good English. Good job. I bet you don’t enjoy a good Chinese restaurant or similar.
I was pointing out the percentages of the populations of those places that speak English proficiently. It is very low. Most of them don't celebrate Christmas or Easter either.
Calling people racist and then without a hint of irony accusing them of being "old" and "white" and "male" is a poor substitute for putting forward a coherent argument.
Chinese food is pretty bloody awful. Indian food is much better.
@brock landers, are you serious? What if they don’t celebrate Christmas or Easter? You’re totally coming across as a white supremacist who wants to keep NZ white (luckily the total opposite is happening)
Could you please elaborate on how it's "lucky" that New Zealand is being made "non-white"?
"Clearly you're for demographic transformation of New Zealand into something else"
No Brock, he's clearly for an inclusive welcoming culture as opposed to your manifesto of cultural bigotry and barely concealed white supremacy. We are not an anglosphere, we are a South Pacific nation.
Clearly you’re for keeping NZ white. Singh, Wang and Li are the top surnames of new borns in Auckland, so better get used to it.
Those are the exact words he chose to use. Truly ghastly. I can see something you both have in common though.
If you have some time left after learning how percentages work, you could learn about the Anglosphere. New Zealand is one of the core countries. Our flag contains a subtle hint about it also.
@brock landers your ignorance on the necessity of immigration from certain countries is alarming. Perhaps you could do with some real world education around the same. You basically believe and have said that NZ should only allow white immigrants who (supposedly have superior English) and those that celebrate Easter and Christmas. Narrow minded doesn’t begin to describe it and it’s a tragedy we still have people like you in society.
I do hope you get that help you need.
That's incorrect. I simply stated that it is easier to assimilate into society those that come from similar linguistic and cultural backgrounds.
Judging by some of the abhorrent things you've been writing, you have quite some way to go yet.
Er two problems of the very many problems, 1 you assume those names are from recent immigrants and not long standing multigenerational NZders, some who have been here for over 100years, see Dunedin. and 2 you assume those coming from Europe are all white... DO YOU KNOW WHAT ETHNICITY MEANS and how it differs from nationality? Because you clearly have some racism set in stone assuming those of Asian ethnicity cannot be longstanding multigenerational NZders who have been here longer than you have on this earth in this country and then assume an entire continent of the world with highly multicultural countries all share the same skin colour, religion and racial bias.
On a fun scientific side note even genetically with european early human migration there was multiple migrations and mixing with Neanderthals so the human genome overall has on average 2% Neanderthal DNA. Similarly for Denisovans. Over tens of thousands of years when mostly humans remained there have been several large worldwide migration events that caused a lot of ethnic and cultural mixing so assuming Europe is solely white skin colour or a single ethnic culture is incredibly wrong and racist. Likewise assuming and not knowing about pacific migration prior to discovery of NZ would be ignorant of just the last millennia of history.
If it is to ensure that we can tick the right boxes for diversity quotas, then we should probably be recruiting from sub-Saharan Africa, because New Zealand is severely lacking in those ethnicities.
Just saying, most of NZ's sub-Saharan African emigrants come from South Africa and the vast majority of those are white as.
The diversity measurers will fail those people for not being the right kind of diversity.
I see where you are being racist. You do know that many of these so called "white" countries have people of different ethnicity and skin tones. There are a great many of South American, Asian, Pacific, Middle Eastern and African ethnicities in countries that primarily have similar language and work practices so their ability to integrate into NZ is much easier for them, faster for employers and much healthier for their family's wellbeing. The downside being is that because they consider their nationality to be important to them (some having spent generations in that country) so you will claim they all must be white and racist. Congratulations. Now imagine that your country of birth and country of nationality/citizenship DOES NOT DICTATE ETHNICITY and we will be fine in future.
To be fair most the immigrants I have met have been of a vast array of ethnicities that do not match the racist assumptions of nationality others have thrown at them while those from relatively monocultural countries have been more racist towards others. But then we only have immigration data on nationality not ethnicity so like you the govt assumes they must be white when they are from Europe as well. Have we learnt nothing from the past decade of migration pressures? (refering to the much documented tragic cases of refugees to cross the mediterranean and the channel in higher numbers and the lack of facilities for them). I mean where do you think historically the access to tasty cuisines have come from. Anglosaxon culture is a No. The best British cuisine is curry https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va6nPu-1auE
There is an issue though that when we do get refugees from worldwide we ill prepare and do not support them adequately for life here. But frankly they have it better than most the disabled population do in NZ so they are still better off than we treat most the vulnerable NZders who can even be denied equitable school education and BE PAID TEN TIMES LOWER THAN MINIMUM WAGE LEGALLY.
I'm obviously being somewhat scandalous. It doesn't really matter where they come from though, yes recently most have come from China.
Is it possible for a political party, that isn't left-wing ridiculous, but also not about to open up the country again to a horde of Chinese immigrants?
Can Chinese people emigrate at the moment? Movements are quite restricted.
Isn't that basically NZFirst, for better or worse
I thought WP ways got a bit of bad press were it wasn't deserved. The crazy Labour stuff seemed to kind of accelerate away after he left govt.
From Hong Kong - would be good for NZ.
Those half a million Kiwi's that were meant to come back and buy property during the pandemic should be arriving any day now...
If there is data to show that young people are the ones leaving, and old ones are the ones coming back for NZ citizen category, this is then, a huge brain drain.
Aging population is a fact, undeniable and must be addressed. Looking at solutions:
- Higher taxes: people dont like it, no.
- Migration for youth and foreign money: people dont like it, no
- Axe Super: people dont like it, no
- Strengthen existing export of farming and other related product: climate change, emission, no
- Strengthen export international education: more students staying, already limited by immigration policy no
- Strengthen tourism: emission, infrastructure, covid, no
- Create alternative export industries like financial services (aka Singapore): everyone in Singapore is money laundering so no.
- Create alternative export industries such as... everything is out of ideas so no.
At some point, people need to grow up and face the music. Saying no just because it is not perfect and involve trade off is not good enough. Not everything in life has a perfect solution. On the contrary, most things involve trade-offs, if not sacrifice. Sometimes, it is between a bad choice and a worse choice. No miracles here.
The whole thing is a ticking nuclear bomb if left unaddressed, we will forever be known as an unproductive, housing-based country not mature enough to make sacrifices to the greater good, and sacked our future to save the past.
Whichever poison pill it is, we need to swallow one. My vote is on environmentalism to be the sacrifice, we can't do much anyway in terms of the totality. To sacrifice our future for a temporary "feel good" moral high ground so we can pat ourselves on the back is childish.
Sacrificing the environment for the sake of profit has been the go to for centuries, it's what's got the world into the current mess. Given the existential threat of climate change rearing it's head time and again, doubling down on that strategy seems particularly obscene. Economies thrive off a stable climate as they exist within the climate, an unstable climate is not conducive to fixing any of the problems you highlight.
I would suggest start by raising the retirement age slowly to 70. In 20 odd years we have increased our average age of death significantly but not raised our retirement age with it, which was a bit dumb. We went 61-65 in 1993-2001 which was smart, but then just stopped. Needs to come with huge penalties for getting rid of older workers and/or ageism in recruitment processes. Some of the best people I currently work with in IT for instance are post retirement age and that's in IT. I know quite a few people who are older who pass on excellent skills wisdom to the young in a variety of industries, given worker shortages, this needs to be a focus. Instead recruitment processes appear to be inherently ageist, it's practically an unwritten policy in most places.
Your last paragraph is completely wrong IMHO. Without a decent environment we have nothing. You can't live and run businesses without clean water, clean air etc.
Cool, they will start buying houses and push up selling price!
That’s what happened previously so don’t expect this time will be any different.
Those holding out for the big property crash will be the losers.
"That pushed the net population change form migration to a net loss of 376 in July."
Don't expect much buying pressure.
I still think these articles don't pay enough attention to the fact that the 'front end' (recent months) has had a positive bias for about 2 years (and starts getting revised lower after about 3 months when travelers' intentions become clearer).
With this release: July came in at -376. June was revised up to (-389, from -896). May up slightly too. However, the 6 months prior to that were revised down a total of 1,600 (-9,952 from -8,299). It takes a few months before the proportion being modelled drops off considerably (hence the downwards revisions only starting to come through after a few months).
All this data is available in the first spreadsheet on Migration Data Transformation (12 September 2022, Stats NZ). It even shows how many movements are based on the model for each release period.
"That reduced the net gain to 1197 in July, which was the highest it has been since March 2020, when pandemic travel restrictions were first introduced."
I'd be satisfied with a net 7-10,000 p.a. gain. How about this. Labour 20-40,000 National 40-60,000 ACT 60-100,000.
and this by BL "...actually improve our society, by bringing in culturally and linguistically compatible, educated people that have the skills we actually need..." goes as well
It was circa 70,000 to 90,000 pre-covid. Ridiculous.
Good. Immigrants welcome.
Well paid immigrants are good for NZ (reduce the cost of skills).
Low paid immigrants are bad for NZ (keep low wages low, inhibit training, encourage corruption).
Immigrants require some investment in infrastructure unless an equivalent number of NZ's leave.
So a modest rate of high paid immigration is fine, there really is a diversity benefit. A high rate of immigration reduces diversity as ethnic ghettos emerge and reduces our social cohesion.
If the figures reported are maintained and if all immigrants are well paid then this is fine.
immigrants require housing and put pressure on the rental markets, pushing up rents. We have a housing crisis, largely due to the unchecked immigration started under John Key, then put on steroids by Jacinda's government. As a nation we need to have a discussion about priorities and just how much immigration we actually want. Until we solve the housing crisis, we don't need any more people.
If sufficient Kiwis leave then immigration is not putting up rents. One problem is most immigrants end up in cities (an effect known since the 1920s) whereas Kiwis leaving NZ are often from small towns so we have ended up with zombie towns and villages with empty, derelict houses and cities full of people living in cars, garages and motels.
A solution might be to ask every immigrant family to build a new house then immigrants can't be blamed for our govt's inability to house us all.
It is a matter of how many. There are quotas and they are set by INZ but under the control of our politicians. It is a tragedy that these quotas cannot be discussed by our elected politicians without the discussion descending to accusations of racism.
Who will do low paid critical jobs that kiwis won't do, elder care, nursing etc?
Make them high paid & see what happens
Who used to do them before a reliance on a business model that wanted cheap labour?
There's no automatic entitlement for a business to have access to low paid labour subsidised by other taxpayers.
RE lobbyist should go all out to create FOMO
Over 50,000 more people have left NZ in the year to date, than have arrived. It was over 54,000 up until August when finally immigrants were allowed into the country. Where have they all gone? And why havent they come back? The model that immigration uses is about as accurate and useful as the Covid model that predicted 80,000 deaths in NZ.
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