A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; still no-one but ANZ have raised floating rates, retail outlook grim on the price front, fewer house auctions, more FLP drawn, swaps up, NZD holds low, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Still no more to report. Only ANZ has moved so far, post the OCR hike. CFML raised their rate however.

SAVINGS & TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised its TD rate offers today for terms to 1 year. For the six and 12 month offers, they are matching ASB's recent rises.

TOUGH IN THE RETAIL TRENCHES
Retailers see further 5% price increases in the next three months. The latest survey of retailers shows a still significant number are unsure if their businesses will survive the next year.

MORE COST INCREASES MEANS MORE PRICE INCREASES
Cost increases from grocery suppliers to supermarkets have risen further in September as suppliers face sustained increases in input costs. The Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) shows a +9.2% pa rise in September 2022, which will maintain pressure on retail supermarket prices.

FEWER HOUSES BEING AUCTIONED
Nationwide residential auction activity slowed slightly in the first week of October. Even allowing for the effect of school holidays, last week's auction numbers were low by any measure, and certainly for the Spring real estate selling season.

CONSUMERS REVERT TO CASH
Cash is back. There has been a big jump reported in usage of 'real' money. The latest Kiwibank household spending data shows that the volume of cash withdrawals is 70% higher than a year ago.

THE STRONG GOT STRONGER
Last week's +0.4% rise in the NZX50 capitalisation revealed a size split. The top five listeds all rose while many of the smaller listeds fell. Fisher & Paykel Healthcare was up +4.2% and Fletcher Building was the biggest gainer, up +6.8%. But the retirement sector fell -1.7% on average with a number falling more than -4% in the week. Other property listeds fell -0.3% on average and only GMT and Investore rose, and their good rises (up about +4% each), kept the sector falling away more. The Energy sector fell -1.5%, held up by a +5.7% rise by Vector. But see below for todays interim update.

MORE FLP ACCESSED
The RBNZ has revealed that [unknown] banks drew down another $470 mln on Friday last week. Now $15.2 bln is drawn on this program. Banks can have these funds for three years at the OCR rate. The fist of them ($1 bln) was drawn in December 2020, so these will need to be repaid by December 2023. The current OCR cost is 3.5% but by mid 2022 that will probably have risen to close to 5%.

MEASURING THE DECLINE
The RBNZ updated its M10 series for data for the June quarter. That reveals that house sales in the June 2022 quarter were the lowest since the September 2010 quarter. It also revealed that the total value of all residential real estate fell to $1.68 tln, the second consecutive quarterly fall, retreating -$82 bln since December 2021, a -4.7% fall so far in 2022. And don't forget, that is after adding in the new houses that are being built and occupied in 2022. The average retreat per dwelling will be more than the -4.7% six monthly figure they report overall.

SWAP RATES RISE AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are firmer on global trends yet again with some local push now too. The key real action comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +4 bps at 3.92% the highest since January 2009. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.86% and up another +6 bps from Saturday. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.76%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.35%, and up another +6 bps and still above the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond at 4.33% which was up +12 bps from this time Friday. The UST 10 year is now at 3.89% and up another +6 bps from this time Friday.

EQUITIES LOWER EVERYWHERE
The NZX50 is down a sharpish -1.3% in late Monday trade. The ASX200 is down -1.6% in early afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Monday trade down -0.7% so far. Hong Kong has started down a very sharp -2.2%. Shanghai is back after a week's holiday with a flat opening - meaning it missed all of last weeks rises elsewhere. The S&P500 futures suggest that New York will open marginally lower.

GOLD STABLE
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1695/oz and very little-changed from this morning and about where it closed at the end of last week in New York.

NZD STAYS SOFT
The Kiwi dollar has held at its lower level to be just over 56.2 USc now. Against the AUD we are marginally firmer at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are now at 57.7 euro cents and also a tad firmer than this morning's open. That all means our TWI-5 is at 66.7 and little-changed.

BITCOIN BECALMED
Bitcoin is seems becalmed today, very little-changed at US$19,520. Volatility over the past 24 hours was low at just under +/- 0.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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