A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; finally more floating rate hikes come, many TD rises too, housing market struggles, borders reopening, swaps firmer again, NZD firmer, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Both ASB and BNZ joined Westpac with floating rate increases, all +50 bps. More here. That only leaves Kiwibank as the sole major yet to pass the OCR rise through.

SAVINGS & TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Westpac and ASB raised a mix of savings accounts and term deposit rates. But BNZ didn't announce any changes when they raised floating rates. First Credit Union, Unity Money, and NZCU Auckland all raised term deposit rates today. The Cooperative Bank did too.

A DISASTROUS START
According to the September data from REINZ, the housing market has had a disastrous start to the Spring selling period with September sales at a 12 year low. House prices continued to slide with the REINZ's national House Price Index now down -12.6% from its peak, down -17.3% in Auckland, and down -19.8% in Wellington.

THE INFLUX RISES QUICKLY
The number of foreign workers arriving in the country is starting to gather pace and it is quite possible it will back to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year.

LOOSER IMMIGRANT SETTING REDUX
The Immigration Minister has reopened the Skilled Migrant visa category ahead of full a review. He has also reopened the parent visa category and its quota has been more than doubled.

MORE PRESSURE
Tourist arrivals are recovering, but overseas travel by Kiwis is growing even faster. That will put even pressure on our current accou7nt deficit.

"TIME TO REBUILD FISCAL BUFFERS"?
The IMF released projections as part of their World Economic Outlook that indicated New Zealand's expansion would fall from +5.6% in 2021 to just +1.9% in 2023. It also forecast that our current account deficit would stick at -6.0% in 2023, the highest in the list of countries they reviewed in the Asia/Pacific region. Unemployment would rise to 3.9% in 2023 they said. Still, Finance Minister Robertson claimed that "New Zealand is in a strong position to handle the increasing global economic turbulence", and "now is the time to rebuild fiscal buffers". These comments come after the audited Crown Accounts to June 2022 showed that government spending rose by +12.9% from the prior year with payroll costs going up +9.5% (pg 46).

A BIG EIGHTH RISE
The Korean central bank raised its base rate by +50 bps to 3.0% today, matching market estimates. High inflation and a weakening currency are burdening their economy. This was the 8th increase in borrowing costs since the Bank of Korea lifted the base rate for the first time in August 2021.

KEEPING AN EYE ON ...
Just for the record, we should note that the US Fed's balance sheet has fallen by -US$209 bln in the past six months, reducing from US$8.965 tln to US$8.759 tln. It is now back to levels last seen at the end of 2021. We should also note that American junk bond yields are back near 9.5% pa.

SWAP RATES RISE AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are firmer on global trends yet again although they may be lesser than recent rises. The key real action comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 3.92% and back at its highest since January 2009. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.00% and up +1 bp from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.76%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.54%, and up another +10 bps and still above the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond at 4.51% which was up another +10 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 10 year is now at 3.95% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES LOWER
Wall Street ended lower today with the S&P500 down -0.7% at their Tuesday close. Tokyo is up +0.3% at their opening. Hong Kong started today down -0.9%. And Shanghai has started down -0.5%. The ASX200 is unchanged in early afternoon trade, but the NZX50 is down -0.7%, hurt mainly by the electricity companies and the banks.

GOLD SLIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1667/oz and down -US$6 from this time yesterday. 

NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar has firmed from this time yesterday to be just over 55.9 USc. Against the AUD we are marginally softer at 88.1 AUc. Against the euro we are now at 57.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is at 66.6 and up +40 bps.

BITCOIN HOLDS
Bitcoin is little-changed today, now at US$19,072 from US$19,058 this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours was modest at just under +/- 1.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».