A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; latest property transfer stats, consumer confidence stays low, a La Niña summer coming, swaps fall hard again, NZD rises (again), & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
TSB raised rates today. Heartland Bank also rated its TD rates.

FOREIGNER INFLUENCE STILL VANISHED
The September update to the property transfer statistics showed that just 0.5% of home transfers were to people without New Zealand citizenship or resident visas in the September 2022 quarter, compared with 0.4% in the September 2021 quarter.

A NORMAL LA NINA SUMMER
NIWA says this summer will be pretty normal, with a La Niña influence. They says we should expect above average temperatures nationwide, with periodic humidity expected from November. Sea surface temperatures may increase notably in November, and rainfall will be regionally variable, but at generally normal levels.

STILL VERY NEGATIVE, & UNUSUAL
Consumer confidence was unchanged in October at 85.4 which is a very low level. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, the best indicator for retail spending, rose 3 points to 22%. Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.0%, versus 5.1% last month. For consumers to be this worried looking at what they think is 5% inflation, and when the jobless rates remains very low, is quite unusual. Also unusual, businesses’ inflation expectations are now higher than consumer inflation expectations.

RISING FASTER IN OZ
Australian producer prices rose +1.9% in the September quarter from the June quarter, accelerating from a 1.4% rise in that prior period. Year on year they are up +6.4% which is also a faster rise in pace.

SWAP RATES REVERSE HARDER
Wholesale swap rates may be falling quite sharply again today and across the board, following global moves. The key real action comes near the close however. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -3 bps at 4.06%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.77% and down -9 bps extending their retreat. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.27%, and down another -16 bps but still well above above the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond at 4.22% which was down -14 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 10 year is now at 3.92% and down another -9 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MIXED
Wall Street ended their Thursday session with the S&P500 retreating -0.6% and leaving it up only +1.4% higher for the week. Tokyo has started today down -0.4% and heading for a flat week. Hong Kong is down -0.6% in early Friday trade, heading for a -3.5% weekly loss. Shanghai is down -0.9% in early trade today and heading for a -2.6% weekly drop. The ASX200 is down -+0.6% today and looking at a +1.9% weekly gain. The NZX50 is up +0.2% in late Friday trade and about to book a good +2.7% weekly rise.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1666/oz and down -US$2 from this time yesterday.

NZD UP
The Kiwi dollar is a full +1c higher today than this time yesterday at 58.4 USc. Against the AUD we are also firm at 90.4 AUc. Against the euro we are +½c firmer at 58.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is at 68.5 and up +20 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN DIPS
Bitcoin is much firmer today, now at US$20,298 and down -2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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