A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday: Kiwibank raises fixed rates, electronic card use up, wage inflation high, eyes on BOP deficit, swap rates firm, NZD up, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank raised all its fixed home loan rates today. More here. Bank of China and Nelson Building Society also came in with subsequent increases.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Westpac changed its rates up +5 and +10 bps late yesterday. Bank of China did so today.

UP BUT FLATTENING OUT
The November use of credit or debit cards to pay for retail and service transactions either in shops or online rose a rather remarkable +$885 mln or +10.5% to $9.3 bln in November compared with the same month a year ago. But of course November 2021 was a troubled semi-lockdown month, so the extreme gains in the hospitality sector (+44%) need to be seen in that context. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the November rise was just +0.3% above the October 2022 level, so rising at less than +4% and far less than recent inflation.

WAGE INFLATION GETS SERIOUS
Stats NZ reports that total gross earnings for the year ended September increased by +$13.9 bln (or by +10%) from the same year in 2021. Public service employees in the healthcare and social assistance sectors won the largest rises. Gross earnings were up +$2.2 bln (+14%) from the previous year in this industry. Professional, scientific, and technical services was the next largest increase, up +$2.0 bln (also up +14%). Gross earnings in the construction sector were up +$1.5 bln (+13%).

DOES HISTORY TELL OUR FUTURE?
Stats NZ also release a whole set of business activity data for the September quarter, all component parts of what will make up the Q3-2022 GDP result due out next Thursday. Most of it was underwhelming (although mostly better than Q2 data), so analysts are now able to firm up their expectations. A +1.1% rise in Q3 from Q2 seems to be what is expected. But as all these analysts will be well aware, getting Q3 data now makes it reasonably irrelevant from a policy-moving perspective. And the main policy-makers interested are the RBNZ, and they are more focused on the future and economic and inflation expectations for 2023. But we reckon we should all watch out for the size of the current account deficit. ANZ says it could touch -8%, the largest since the 1980s. Wellington seems to think it is a temporary blip and will self-correct. A brave (or reckless?) assumption.

CARTEL CONVICTION
NZ Steel's parent BlueScope has suffered a major court loss in Australia, convicted of price fixing in the Australian Federal Court in a case brought by the ACCC.

SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates were likely firmer today. The real action comes near the close however. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +2 bps at 4.49%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.34% and unchanged from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.93% and up +2 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.11%, and up +5 bps and still well above the earlier RBNZ fix for the NZGB 10 year which was up +1 bp to 4.04%. The UST 10 year is now at 3.47% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MIXED
The S&P500 ended its Tuesday session down -1.4% on Wall Street. For their first four days, they are -2.7% lower, so a down week faces them. However Tokyo has opened its Friday session up +1.2% and is heading tor a +0.5% weekly rise. Hong Kong has opened up +0.7% and has had an amazingly volatile week. If it stays like this they will book a +1.9% gain. Meanwhile Shanghai is down -0.2% in its opening session and heading for a modest +0.3% weekly gain. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in Friday afternoon trade, and if that holds it will limit their loss for the week to +1.5%. The NZX50 is little changed in afternoon trade and may end down a minor -0.3% for the week.

GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1794/oz and up another +US$10 from this time yesterday.

NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is firmer, now at 64.1 USc and up +½c from this time yesterday, up even more from this morning. Against the AUD we are soft at 94.3 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 60.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is now at 72.4 and up another +30 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN RISES
Bitcoin is now at US$17,259 which is a +2.5% rise from where we were this time yesterday and an unusual advance in the perspective of the past few weeks. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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