A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; notable retail rates changes, business confidence rises off its lows, ANZ seeks more funding, swaps rise modestly, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Westpac changed almost all their fixed rates today, and followed ASB by setting an inverted rate curve for home loans. More here.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
First, Westpac raised many short rates, taking their six month rate to 4.70%. Then Rabobank also raised many of its term deposit rates today, taking their 6 month offer to 5.00% and their 1 year offer to 5.75%. And Heartland advised that it will be raising its TD rates on Tuesday, January 31. That will make their 6 month rate also 5.00% and their one year rate 5.70%. No-one has matched SBS Bank's 6.00% one year rate yet.

TOUGH, BUT NOT DISHEARTENED
Costs and prices are still exerting severe pressure on the economy. But despite that, businesses are starting the new year happier than in January. ANZ's Business Outlook survey revealed business confidence bounced +18 points in January as the shock of the November Monetary Policy Statement wore off a bit. Expected own activity also bounced, up +10 points to -16. Inflation pressures remain intense. Pricing intentions rose +3 points, and cost expectations rose +7 points. Inflation expectations remain stuck around the 6% mark. There’s good reason for the RBNZ to keep hiking a while yet, ANZ says.

A BIG DEAL ABOUT A TRIVIAL CHANGE
ASB said it will remove monthly fees on everyday business and personal accounts, costing it $14 mln in account fee income over the coming year. In context, that is 0.7% of its last pre-paid annual profit of $2.035 bln. (See page 3.)

NEED MORE FUNDS
ANZ has announced that, subject to market conditions, it is considering making an offer of unsecured unsubordinated fixed rate bonds with a term of five years to retail and institutional investors and certain overseas institutional investors. The offer is expected to be for up to $½ bln.

BELOW THE CUSP
Fitch Ratings, who assigned SBS Bank an investment grade rating of BBB (last affirmed in August 2022), hasn't been so generous with with their new issuance of New Zealand dollar Tier 2 bonds. These bonds are rated by Fitch as BB+ which is not investment grade.

PRESSURE OFF?
In Australia, there is evidence price pressures are easing for businesses. Their producer price index rose +5.8% in the year to December, but only at the annualised rate of +2.8% in the December quarter from the September quarter. We won't get to know how our PPI data tracked in the December quarter until February 21.

PRESSURE ON?
In Japan, their special Tokyo inflation data came in at +4.4% and the fastest increase since 1981. Tokyo prices are considered a leading indicator for national Japanese prices. But it is not clear that this will motivate the Bank of Japan to ease off its ultra-loose monetary policies. They are determined to wait out the current cost-push inflation until it turns into a demand-driven one accompanied by wage growth.

SWAP RATES TURN HIGHER
Wholesale swap rates likely stopped falling and started rising again today. The real action comes near the close however. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 4.86%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.58% and up +9 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.96% and unchanged of course. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.15% and up +6 bps, but still above the earlier RBNZ fix for the NZGB 10 year which is down -1 bp at 4.07%. The UST 10 year is up +7 bps to 3.52%.

EQUITIES RISE TO CAP THE WEEK
On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended with a flourish, up 1.1% in Thursday trade. The NZX50 is up +0.2% in late trade today and heading for a modest +0.6% weekly rise. The ASX200 is back after their one-day holiday and is up +0.3% in afternoon trade and heading for a modest weekly gain of +0.5%. Tokyo has started today marginally softer but has already booked a +1.8% weekly gain so far. Hong Kong is up +0.3% at its open, and heading for a +3.0% rise in their shortened week. Shanghai is still on holiday, but returns next week.

GOLD REVERSES
In early Asian trade, gold is lower, now at US$1931/oz and down -US$14 from this time yesterday.

NZD FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is back up to 65 USc to end the week. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are firmish at 59.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is now up at 71.7 and +30 bps higher.

BITCOIN FALLS BACK
The bitcoin price is lower from this time yesterday, now at US$22,899 and down -1.4%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.9%.

UPDATE
It is a public holiday in the Auckland region (where we are based) and the top half of the North Island on Monday. However, we will be publishing 'normally'.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».