A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; minor retail rate tweaks, construction slows, Auckland storm claims to top $1 bln, commodity prices stop falling, swaps and NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB cut their 6 month and one year fixed mortgage rates, and raised their two year rate slightly. Bank of China cut their 1-3 year fixed rates. Update: Westpac has pushed the boat out a bit further for the main banks for TD's 12 months and longer, now with the highest offers for these main rivals. Their new one year rate is 5.50%.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Bank of China raised their term deposit rates.

CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SLOWS
The first signs are emerging of a downturn in construction activity, principally in the residential sector. The latest Statistics NZ figures suggest building activity peaked in Q3 2022 and started to decline in Q4-2022.

WAIKATO SHINES
For non-residential construction, strong activity in Waikato in the December quarter was a feature, with +$37 mln more construction work put in place compared to September. Over the last year, non-residential work put in place in Waikato has increased +73%, as strong factory and storage building drove these higher levels. (H/T Infometrics.)

THE AUCKLAND BILL
The Insurance Council says about $111 mln of insurance support has already been paid as part of what will be 'a long recovery' from the Auckland Anniversary weekend floods, while about 30,000 claims have already been lodged as a result of Cyclone Gabrielle. Their estimate is that in the end, all claims will top $1 bln (or about 0.3% of the national annual economic activity (GDP).

COMMODITY PRICES STOP FALLING
ANZ reported that their World Commodity Price Index increased +1.3% in February from January, a welcome lift after 10 consecutive monthly falls. Stronger returns for meat and forestry products were the main drivers. But that still leaves them -15% lower than year-ago levels. In local currency terms the index gained +2.0% on the same month-on-month basis, supported by an easing of the NZD.

TRACKING FEBRUARY SPENDING
Payments network Worldline (ex-Paymark) has been looking at how the storms affected consumer spending in February. They say consumer spending spiked both up and down as the extreme weather hit in February. More here.

MORE RURAL SUPPORT
The Government has extended the $29 mln aid package for storm-hit farmers and growers by another $26 mln taking the grant to $55 mln. It is for post-cyclone cleanup and recovery. So far they have received 2,846 applications and paid out more than $17 mln. Up to $10,000 is available for pastoral farmers, and up to $2000/ha (to a max of $40,000) for growers.

PROGRESS TAMING INFLATION ?
In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge showed prices eased sharply to under 5% at an annualised rate in February from January from almost 11% annualised rate in January from December. This was the sixth straight month of increase in the index, bringing the year-on-year rate to 6.3%, which was the second highest since the series began. For sure, the RBA will have noticed this data ahead of their cash rate target review tomorrow. Another +25 bps rise is baked in now and that will be their tenth in a row.

KOREAN INFLATION PROGRESS
And South Korea is making progress on the inflation front - probably at the cost of growth. Their February CPI rate fell below an annualised 4% rate and the year on year rate slipped to 4.8%.

SWAP RATES HOLD HIGH
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today at the short end. The real action in swap rates comes near the close however. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +2 bps to 5.18% which is now +43 bps above the current OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.80% and down -5 bps today. The China 10 year bond rate is softer by -2 bps at 2.92%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.69% and down -7 bps from this morning and still above the earlier RBNZ fix at 4.66% which was down -2 bps today. The UST 10 year is at 3.96% where it was when we opened this morning.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER, EXCEPT CHINA
The NZX50 is up +0.4% in late trade today. The ASX200 is up +0.5%. Tokyo has opened its Monday trade up +1.1%. Hong Kong is down -0.6% in very early trade. Shanghai is down -0.6% at their open. The S&P500 futures suggest that Monday will open on Wall Street very little changed from its Friday close.

GOLD MARGINALLY SOFTER
In early Asian trade, gold is slightly softer from the open this morning, now at US$1853/oz and down -US$4.

NZD STILL ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this morning, still at 62.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are also little-changed at 92.1 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed as well at 58.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still at 70.3.

BITCOIN BECALMED
Bitcoin has moved very little today, now at US$22,440. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».