What happened Friday

Business / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; TSB raises rates, student apartment market rises, more milk payout forecasts cut, mortgage lending stunted, swaps hold, NZD holds, & more

24th Mar 23, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB has raised its fixed rates to 18 months, all by +25 bps to 6.54% from Monday. But even after these increases their rates are lower than their main rivals.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB also raised some TD rates today for terms 9 months to 3 years.

ONE PROPERTY MARKET RECOVERING
The apartment market in the Auckland CBD is in full recovery mode as overseas students return, with vacancy rates back to pre-pandemic levels and rents rising.

GLOOMY I
Following BNZ's cut to their current season milk payout forecast, ANZ has now released a more gloomy assessment. They have revised down their farmgate milk price forecast for the 2022-23 season by -25c to $8.25/kg milksolid, and cut their next season to $8.50/kgMS. Downward pressure is coming from a rise in global milk supply they say, and underwhelming demand from China's reopening. You can see all current forecasts from all major analysts here (bottom of page).

GLOOMY II
The busted carbon trading market has seen another large fall in price today, now down to $63/NZU. If you had bought carbon credits at their peak at about $89/NZU in late 2022 you would be nursing -30% losses.

NEW MORTGAGE LENDING CONFIRMS STUNTED MARKET
New mortgage lending to investors is bumping along at series lows, with only 16% of these by value going to investors in February. First home buyers took 21% in February, just shy of the all-time record high share of 23% in January. The rest went to existing owner-occupiers. But the level of new mortgages at $3.8 bln in the month wasn't high, in fact a third lower than the same month in 2022 and only half the $7.6 bln in February 2021.

THE TAB ABOUT TO BE SOLD - TO THE AUSSIES?
It looks like the TAB is in the last stages of being sold off to one of the Aussie betting giants. They will get access to the TAB's monopoly position here, unless the law is changed. Tabcorp and Entain are being talked about as the final bidders.

A SHARP TURN LOWER
The Japanese inflation rate fell to 3.3% in February from January's 41-year high of 4.3%. The latest figure also marked the lowest print since last September. They had serious and sudden deflation in February from January, running at an annualised -7% rate.

HOLDING ON
The inflation fall came even as the Japanese services sector expanded at a faster rate in March. And their factory sector held it own, even if it isn't back expanding yet.

SWAP RATES STAY DOWN
Wholesale swap rates have probably not moved much today at the short end but are down more for longer terms. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged again at 5.15% and still +40 bps above the current OCR. Markets are pricing in less than a +25 bps rise at the next RBNZ review on Wednesday, April 5, 2023. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.24% and down -7 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.89%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.16%, down -7 bps and still above the earlier RBNZ fix at 4.13% which was unchanged from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is down another -7 bps today, now at 3.40%. That is about back to where it was a week ago.

EQUITIES SETTLE LOWER LOCALLY, HIGHER ELSEWHERE
In New York, the S&P500 ended its volatile Thursday session up +0.3%. So far this week it is up +0.8%. Tokyo is down -0.4% in morning trade there and also heading for a +0.3% weekly gain. Hong Kong is down -0.4% at their open today but they are heading for a +3.2% weekly jump. Shanghai is down -0.5% in their early trade but if that holds they will have a +0.5% weekly gain. The ASX is down -0.4% in afternoon trade heading for a -0.7% weekly fall. The NZX50 is little-changed in late Friday trade but looking like it will shed -1.2% for the week.

GOLD RISES AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up another +US$25 from this time yesterday at US$1992/oz. The all-time high is US$2067/oz in August 2020. (In NZD the all-time high is now. But using gold to speculate on the NZD is actually an inefficient way to do that - there are more direct ways. Hold gold separate from your NZD hedging.)

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has changed little since this time yesterday, now at 62.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are firmer, now up to 93.5 AUc. And against the euro we are holding firm at 57.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 70.3.

BITCOIN FIRMER
The bitcoin price has risen +3.3% from this time yesterday, now at US$28,336. Volatility has been moderate today at +/-2.9%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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47 Comments

by J.C. | 24th Mar 23, 4:47pm 1679629663

If you had bought carbon credits at their peak at about $89/NZU in late 2022 you would be nursing -30% losses.

Interesting. I thought this was a money for jam opportunity.

by Ngrrk | 24th Mar 23, 8:19pm 1679642368

Many portrayed it as such.

by Pa1nter | 24th Mar 23, 8:44pm 1679643854

It is depending on who you are.

People involved in certifying and measuring carbon farming will be crushing it.

The people actually buying and developing land, less so because they don't really know what they're getting into.

by Jonny.Foe | 24th Mar 23, 4:52pm 1679629979

Those aggressive interest rate hikes in Japan to a full -0.1% are obviously 'taming inflation'.

Isn't monetary policy brilliant?

by J.C. | 24th Mar 23, 4:57pm 1679630273

Many disagree with govt intervention but at least the Japanese govt does its best to control prices that affect the 'little guy.' In the Japan CPI, approx 1/4 of consumer goods and services are subject to government rules and regulation (de-facto price controls).

1) The government is not afraid to intervene in markets to preserve the purchasing power of the people

2) Japan`s domestic industrial structure is much more cut-throat competitive.

https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/whos-afraid-of-inflation-not-japan

by HouseMouse | 24th Mar 23, 5:26pm 1679632019

Lol

by J.C. | 24th Mar 23, 6:05pm 1679634317

Why laugh? I took a bullet train from Osaka to Nagoya. Cheaper than a taxi from Auckland airport to the North Shore. That's a good thing. For Japanese consumers.

by Foxglove. | 24th Mar 23, 6:28pm 1679635697

Came in to AKL at about 11pm. Tried to get a taxi to the Sudima. Told to get the yellow bus. Waited half an hour. No sign. Went back to taxis. Quoted $75.00 for the 2.5 km ride. Big argument, two against the entire taxi rank. A couple of strangers overheard and nicely gave us a lift.Staff at Sudima said often guests arrive by taxi paying $100.00. Welcome to Auckland, welcome to New Zealand, not. How can Auckland Airport possibly sanction scalping like that from the taxis, at the main entrance to New Zealand. Either you are a registered with a meter or you are not.

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Mar 23, 6:32pm 1679635974

Last time I was in Beijing taxis were regulated to charge by kilometers, never mind the jam.

by JimboJones | 24th Mar 23, 7:01pm 1679637683

NZ taxis are the weirdest market in the world, the only one I know of where an oversupply leads to high prices - they queue up at the airport for hours so of course they want a decent fare. But it isn’t a proper free market, the queue itself is the distortion.

by Foxglove. | 24th Mar 23, 7:30pm 1679639425

Except they are licensed. That means they operate under a meter and charge at the rate per km etc, that is struck relatively. That does not entitle them to turn off the meter, pick and choose, and charge an ad hoc fare to suit themselves. Either they are licensed and conform to the criteria bound by that license, or they are not taxis authorised to trade at that taxi rank. Sure a short ride costs the place in the queue, but that goes with territory, the luck of the draw.

by sit23 | 24th Mar 23, 8:17pm 1679642225

Blame Simon Bridges. He deregulated the Taxi industry when Minister of Transport. Scab Cabs are all over the place now. Legally they can charge what they like.

by Kanamori | 24th Mar 23, 6:31pm 1679635890

So about $170 for a taxi ride. Taxis are definitely cheaper in NZ than Tokyo though. Cost me about $400 to get home in Tokyo many years ago.

by J.C. | 24th Mar 23, 6:40pm 1679636446

About NZD110 (JPY9,000). Japanese generally don't use taxis for private use. Miss the last train, sleep in a capsule.

by HouseMouse | 24th Mar 23, 6:48pm 1679636916

It’s for JFoe’s sarc comment.

As I have said many times before, I studied Japanese history and language, I lived in Japan (Nagoya), am married to a Japanese woman, and am in awe of Japan’s many great things (as well as knowing they have many problems and many not so great approaches)

by J.C. | 24th Mar 23, 4:53pm 1679629991

But using gold to speculate on the NZD is actually an inefficient way to do that - there are more direct ways. Hold gold separate from your NZD hedging.)

PMGOLD (in AUD). Nothing to sneeze at here.

Past month / 3 months - +11% respectively

Past 6 months - +18%

Past year - +15%

Past 3 years - + 58%

by JimboJones | 24th Mar 23, 4:54pm 1679630057

While I don't think the government should own the TAB, I also don't see the need for them to be a monopoly. Will they keep the monopoly status just to sell it for more?

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Mar 23, 5:06pm 1679630781

The only way it will be guaranteed to remain an "honest book" is monopoly govt control.

by Pragmatist | 24th Mar 23, 5:13pm 1679631211

Or just ban sports betting, including dogs and nags. Nothing good has ever come of it, and a lot of people have got themselves into a lot of trouble. Almost as toxic as the pokie machines in pubs. I mean suburban pokie machine businesses masquerading as pubs.

by IT GUY | 24th Mar 23, 5:31pm 1679632294

I think they are selling a 20 year operational license..... Go the Chiefs!

by HouseMouse | 24th Mar 23, 5:40pm 1679632801

I have already put a few bob on Ireland to win the world cup, @ $6. Now down to $4.50 at the TAB.

I am a pretty conservative better, have plenty of self control and tend to hedge. Will hedge with a few $ on France and maybe SA

by tis i | 24th Mar 23, 5:39pm 1679632776

Yeah. Cause banning stuff always works.

by JimboJones | 24th Mar 23, 6:57pm 1679637436

I’d ban lotto first, it takes much more money from the poor.

by HouseMouse | 24th Mar 23, 7:18pm 1679638714

It’s a real con

by IT GUY | 24th Mar 23, 8:33pm 1679643188

The left loves banning things that the left loves consuming....

by Pragmatist | 25th Mar 23, 12:03am 1679655811

Lotto barely registers as a form of problem gambling, so while there are a lot more $ spent on lotto, there are far fewer lives destroyed by it. Buying a ticket or two once a week can’t even come near the destructiveness of sitting at a pokie machine for 6 hours and gambling your entire pay check away.

The survey results are partially at odds with the experience of treatment providers. The latter find that non-casino pokies are by far the most popular form of gambling among problem gamblers²⁴ and that track betting is relatively unimportant. This discrepancy may reflect a near doubling in the numbers of, and more than doubling of expenditure on, poker machines since Abbott, Williams and Volberg's survey was taken.²⁵ In this respect, the latest data from the providers may be more in tune with the experience in other countries than are the findings of Abbott and his colleagues.²⁶

FYI, both the later surveys (post 2000) have Lotto under 0.5% of Problem gamblers.

by Neutral_Observer | 24th Mar 23, 5:22pm 1679631767

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-21/new-zealand-dollar-e…;

The New Zealand dollar, one of this year’s worst-performing major currencies, is emerging as a prime choice to hedge against potential US dollar strength should the global economic outlook darken.

The kiwi has lost about 2.6% in 2023, beating only the Norwegian krone among Group-of-10 currencies. The slide took place in the context of a modestly weaker greenback, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropping 0.4% this year. Analysts see a much more dire outcome for the kiwi if the US currency were to strengthen as a result of an economic crash-landing or should banking crises deepen. The greenback tends to act as a haven during times of international turbulence. So with banking turmoil raising the odds of a recession, it all points to a strategy of wagering against the currency of New Zealand, whose commodity exports make it especially vulnerable to global growth cycles.

.............

The bank maintains short positions on the kiwi versus the Australian dollar and yen through options. Looking back at the past four decades, JPMorgan found the kiwi to be one of the biggest laggards in a period spanning from one year before a US recession through one year after it ended. It fared much worse than other developed peers and even trailed emerging-market currencies such as the Mexican peso or Brazilian real.

......................

Risks to the kiwi dollar are “tilted to the downside in the near-term” and it’s possible for it to slump below 55 US cents, from about 62 now, “if the issues in the banking sector worsen significantly,” Kong said.

..............

by Pragmatist | 24th Mar 23, 5:23pm 1679631798

Swaps down again, almost 75bps since the 9th of march at the 2 and 3 year terms. Almost 50bps for the 1 year. Erased the increase since the last OCR rise on 22 Feb and then some.

by HW2 | 24th Mar 23, 5:44pm 1679633070

Interesting

/Not sarc

by HW2 | 24th Mar 23, 5:45pm 1679633152

ONE PROPERTY MARKET RECOVERING

The apartment market in the Auckland CBD is in full recovery mode as overseas students return, with vacancy rates back to pre-pandemic levels and rents rising.

Also interesting

IT GUY or one of his incarnations will be along shortly to tell me its not true

by J.C. | 24th Mar 23, 5:53pm 1679633585

What would you do without Granny Herald HW? When all seems lost, at least they will deliver some hopium.

by HW2 | 24th Mar 23, 6:02pm 1679634175

Its f**king great fishing when IT GUY is taking the bait. He spills the beans what he really believes

by J.C. | 24th Mar 23, 6:06pm 1679634392

Like a puppet on a string

by Amokk | 24th Mar 23, 8:14pm 1679642051

DON'T FEED THE TROLL

by J.C. | 24th Mar 23, 6:02pm 1679634127

Janet Yellen stated overnight that Russia and China might explore developing an alternative global reserve currency.

At least we know she is not totally asleep.

by HW2 | 24th Mar 23, 6:21pm 1679635263

Would that be a crypto currency. Didn't China ban Bitcoin

by Juzz | 24th Mar 23, 7:14pm 1679638474

They've already discussed doing so years back

by blobbles | 24th Mar 23, 7:28pm 1679639290

Makes much more sense for a BRICS currency, if they could trust each other enough to actually make one.

by Pa1nter | 24th Mar 23, 8:48pm 1679644091

The only thing they have in common is they don't want to adhere to the global rules based order.

It's the trading block equivalent of a jilted ex assembling a superhero group of other people that also don't like you.

With their powers combined..... Oh wait their only power is saltiness.

by Kanamori | 24th Mar 23, 6:30pm 1679635834

N/T

by Justa comment | 24th Mar 23, 7:31pm 1679639496

ANZ and ASB on-call savings rate of 2.25%. KB on-call rate 3.85%. Well thats a no brainer for customers.

by malamah | 24th Mar 23, 7:48pm 1679640494

KB not been a bad place for rainy day cash for the past year.

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Mar 23, 7:54pm 1679640889

BNZ Rapid Save on call 3.95%

by Beanie | 24th Mar 23, 8:10pm 1679641809

Cooperative Bank 4.1% step saver. Couple of minor conditions but it's basically on call.

by bigtam | 24th Mar 23, 8:25pm 1679642700

Have some cash on call with Kiwibank. Thinking about term deposits with them. Some input please, is it reasonable to believe that if Kiwibank got into financial difficulties the current government would stop them using bail in and protect deposits/voters? Given they own the back?

by rolande | 24th Mar 23, 8:38pm 1679643506

Not sure about legally, but from a moral hazard perspective sometimes yes (BNZ, SCF) sometimes no (DFC, lots of other non-SCF mezzanine finance institutions). Probably safeish if you spread risks around a bit.

by Justa comment | 25th Mar 23, 2:52pm 1679709160

Labour would bail out KB 100%. National/Act coalition, I dont know.