Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
So far no main bank has announced any rate changes, but Kookmin Bank has raised its floating rate by a full +100 bps to 8.50%. Nelson Building Society decreased its 1 and 2 year fixed rates. But ASB has apparently raised its home loan servicing rate by +25 bps to 8.75%.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Xceda Finance has increased all its rates from 6 to 18 months. The Cooperative Bank has raised rates for its online savings and bonus savings accounts.
NET WORTH DOWN, SAVINGS RATE UP
Statistics New Zealand figures show falling property values trimmed -$93 bln from household net worth, but in the December quarter rises in disposable income for household outstripped increases in spending.
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FARMER CONFIDENCE RISES OFF ITS ALL-TIME LOWS
Sheep and beef farmers and horticulturalists are now more optimistic about the prospects for the agricultural economy, while dairy farmers are more pessimistic, according to a Rabobank survey.
COMMODITY PRICES RISE AGAIN
Commodity prices rose again in March, both in world price terms, and in NZD terms. But it was a mixed bag among the various sectors. Stronger returns for meat largely offset weaker aluminium prices.
TIP OF AN ICEBERG? OR JUST A TINY SELECTIVE SET?
Consumer NZ said it had received over 300 examples of dodgy supermarket specials from its members as part of its campaign to clean up supermarket pricing. Among the examples were: 78 ‘specials’ which, on closer inspection, were not an opportunity to save; 54 instances of customers being charged more than the shelf price; 18 dodgy multibuys - where the products would have been cheaper if bought individually. Meanwhile, Foodstuffs pushed back at the claims, saying “We’ve been asking Consumer NZ for the details of the issues they say they’ve found in our stores for several months now, and to date they’ve provided seven examples, which we promptly looked into. Over the same period Consumer NZ say they’ve been collecting examples, our stores will have completed 100 million customer transactions.”
CHINA BUILDS NEW MOMENTUM
We now have the private Caixin services PMI, and that has confirmed the earlier reported strong rise in the official services PMI - showing a robust expansion there. It's the fastest pace of expansion in activity since November 2020, and comes with strong new order intakes following the end of their pandemic restrictions. New orders rose at the fastest pace in 28 months, with new export business expanding at the quickest rate since the series began in September 2014. The contrast with the US is worth noting, but to be fair the US expansion has been going on for very much longer and without the volatile turns.
SWAP RATES REVERSE
Wholesale swap rates have probably retreated lower after yesterday's OCR-induced jump. Certainly bond rates have, except the 1 year which is higher again. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +24 bps at 5.49% after the OCR decision, and the standard premium restored. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.21% and down -3 bps from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.88%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.00%, and down -20 bps and the same as the earlier RBNZ fix at 4.00% and down -5 bps. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.30% and down another -6 bps from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES MOSTLY BECALMED
The NZX50 is up +0.2% in late trade today, and is heading for a short-week fall of -0.2%. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in early afternoon trade and heading for a modest +0.3% weekly rise. Tokyo has opened down another sharp -1.1% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong has opened little-changed while Shanghai has opened similarly. The S&P500 ended its Wednesday trade down -0.3%.
GOLD BACK DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is up -US$12 from this time yesterday, now at US$2008/oz. It did close in New York earlier at US$2020 and in London at US$2031/oz.
NZD SLIPS BACK
The Kiwi dollar has fallen back about -¾c to 62.9 USc unable to sustain the sharp rise after the OCR hike. Against the Aussie we are unchanged 94 AUc. And against the euro we are softer at 57.8 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is down at 70.7 and giving up all of yesterday's +50 bps rise.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price has fallen from this time yesterday, now at US$28,060 which is a drop of -2.1%. Volatility has remained modest however at +/-1.6%.
EASTER BREAK
This afternoon report will now take a break until Tuesday, April 11, 2023. But we will have a Weekend Briefing on Saturday morning. And there will be a range of interesting economic views released over this long Easter weekend for your reading pleasure. Stay safe on the roads, on the water, and in the mountains.
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