A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; banking goes 24/7, jail for tax crime, livestock numbers fall, consumers not convinced inflation is falling, swaps on hold, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes so far today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.

SUPPORTING THE COOK ISLANDS
New Zealand will provide $15 mln in emergency budget support for the Cook Islands in its ongoing recovery from the impacts of COVID-19. This support was confirmed during a meeting with the Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown in Papua New Guinea today.

BANKING GOES SEVEN DAYS
From Friday, May 26, 2023, electronic bank payments made on public holidays and weekends can now go through on the same day. 365-day payments or seven-day payments processing, a significant industry change will now be the norm for ANZ, ASB, Bank of China, BNZ, Citi, HSBC, ICBC, Kiwibank, TSB and Westpac – banks who collectively offer financial services to the majority of consumers. The project was led by Payments NZ.

MANUKA'S NOT NZ OR SPECIAL. AUSSIES WIN
The Intellectual Property Office of New Zealand ruled for Australian objectors in its decision on the opposition to the ‘MANUKA HONEY’ trade mark application. The decision refuses the application to register ‘MANUKA HONEY’ as a certification mark. It refuses the application on several grounds, including that ‘MANUKA HONEY’ is descriptive of the goods of the application and is therefore not registrable under the Trade Marks Act 2002.

TWENTY SEVEN MONTHS JAIL FOR $5 MLN IN UNPAID TAX & DEDUCTIONS
An Auckland company director David John Gower has been jailed for more than two years after he stopped paying tax deductions from his workers to the IRD. Gower was the director of AFS Total Fire Protection Ltd, and they owe the IRD $2,645,500 of PAYE debt and $1,373,300 of GST debt. They also owed $1,054,000 in unpaid KiwiSaver Employer Contributions and $40,900 in unpaid Employer Superannuation Contribution Tax. AFS’s workers never got the benefit of that money or any interest on it. Gower has repaid $300,000 in reparation.

S&P LIFTS RISK TREND FOR NZ BANKS TO 'STABLE' FROM 'NEGATIVE'
S&P Global Ratings has revised its economic risk trend for NZ banks to "stable" from "negative." The credit rating agency says the revised assessment remains consistent with its ratings and outlooks on NZ banks and finance companies. It says high interest rates should continue to support "the orderly unwinding" in property prices in NZ. Banks' credit losses over the next two years should revert to their long-term historical average of about 10 basis points, S&P adds.

A DECADE OF 'PROGRESS' OR NOT
Livestock numbers keep on declining. There are fewer dairy cattle, sheep, and deer in the country, according to the final results of the five-yearly Agricultural Production Census 2022. There have been consistent and faster falls since the peak in 2014. Over that period beef cattle rose +5.4%, dairy cows decreased -8.4%, sheep decreased -15.1% and deer decreased -17.1%. Stats NZ vehicle data shows the opposite for transport. But Wellington seems more focused on farming. Over the same period from 2014, the data shows the total vehicle fleet rose from 3,576,000 to 4,513,000 (+26%).

PERCEPTION TWISTS
According to a survey commissioned by the RBNZ, consumers think inflation is running at 7.6%, up from 7.3% in March. (In March it actually ran at 6.7%.) This same survey shows consumers think inflation will still be at 7.0% in a years time, but down to 2% in five years time. Those surveyed have never felt house prices were falling and don't now either. More here.

CHINA HOLDS
China has reviewed its key policy rates and left them unchanged in its May reviews The People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its key lending rates steady for the ninth straight month at May fixing, as widely expected. The one-year loan prime rate, which the medium-term lending facility uses for corporate and household loans, was left unchanged at 3.65%; while the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was kept at 4.3%. The move came after the central bank held its medium-term policy rate at 2.75% last week.

SWAP RATES HOLDS
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed from Friday. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +3 bps at 5.82% and 57 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.59% and down -3 bps from this morning. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.74%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.44% which down -3 bps, but still above the earlier RBNZ fix at 4.42% which is up +1 bp from Friday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.67% and down -2 bps from this morning.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.9% to start the week. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its week unchanged and holding near its recent highs. Hong Kong is up +1.4% in early Monday trade (and displaying its usual volatility). Shanghai has opened up +0.4%. The S&P500 futures suggest Wall Street will open little-changed, up +0.2% perhaps.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is down at US$1978/oz unchanged from this morning's open.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this morning at 62.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 94.3 AUc. And against the euro we are still at 58 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 71.3.

BITCOIN SLIPS MARGINALLY
The bitcoin price is a lower today, now at US$26,631 and down -0.9% from where we opened this morning. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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