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Stephen Toplis

BNZ economists say the RBNZ is now 'well and truly behind the curve' as inflation heads to 'a number well above 5%'
18th Oct 21, 2:56pm
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BNZ economists say the RBNZ is now 'well and truly behind the curve' as inflation heads to 'a number well above 5%'
New Zealand's inflation is set to hit another 10-year high, but the key question will be whether this is a short run thing or the start of a lasting wage and price spiral
14th Oct 21, 9:02am
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New Zealand's inflation is set to hit another 10-year high, but the key question will be whether this is a short run thing or the start of a lasting wage and price spiral
Reserve Bank lifts Official Cash Rate for first time in 7 years to 0.50% as widely expected
6th Oct 21, 2:05pm
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Reserve Bank lifts Official Cash Rate for first time in 7 years to 0.50% as widely expected
NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the building sector has gone from being the most optimistic to the most pessimistic sectors surveyed
5th Oct 21, 10:55am
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NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the building sector has gone from being the most optimistic to the most pessimistic sectors surveyed
The NZIER's latest 'Shadow Board' review ahead of this week's OCR decision shows businesses going cooler on interest rate rises
4th Oct 21, 11:31am
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The NZIER's latest 'Shadow Board' review ahead of this week's OCR decision shows businesses going cooler on interest rate rises
NZ-based economists still think as long as the Covid outbreak here can be contained reasonably quickly, interest rates will still go up this year - but one international economics firm reckons hikes are off till May next year now
23rd Aug 21, 2:43pm
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NZ-based economists still think as long as the Covid outbreak here can be contained reasonably quickly, interest rates will still go up this year - but one international economics firm reckons hikes are off till May next year now
No major changes to mortgage rates or house price inflation expected in the near-term on the back of Covid-19 halting a much-anticipated OCR hike
20th Aug 21, 1:26pm
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No major changes to mortgage rates or house price inflation expected in the near-term on the back of Covid-19 halting a much-anticipated OCR hike
Bank economists respond to a hawkish RBNZ, picking an OCR hike for August, but opinion remains divided over whether the economy needs cooling just yet
14th Jul 21, 7:09pm
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Bank economists respond to a hawkish RBNZ, picking an OCR hike for August, but opinion remains divided over whether the economy needs cooling just yet
ASB and BNZ tip imminent interest rate rise after NZIER latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows worst ever shortage of labour, while inflation pressures are continuing to mount
6th Jul 21, 10:42am
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ASB and BNZ tip imminent interest rate rise after NZIER latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows worst ever shortage of labour, while inflation pressures are continuing to mount
Kiwibank economists say there's mounting pressure on mortgage rates to be 'adjusted higher', while they believe the likes of retailers will be more easily able to pass on price rises in the current environment
5th Jul 21, 4:00pm
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Kiwibank economists say there's mounting pressure on mortgage rates to be 'adjusted higher', while they believe the likes of retailers will be more easily able to pass on price rises in the current environment
BNZ's Stephen Toplis says house price inflation must fall and house prices could too. Supply growth exceeds demand growth and property returns are under pressure. He says the construction boom will moderate
6th Jun 21, 6:01am
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BNZ's Stephen Toplis says house price inflation must fall and house prices could too. Supply growth exceeds demand growth and property returns are under pressure. He says the construction boom will moderate
Kiwibank economists, who are forecasting a first Official Cash Rate rise in May next year, now see a 'risk' of three rate hikes in 2022
1st Jun 21, 1:26pm
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Kiwibank economists, who are forecasting a first Official Cash Rate rise in May next year, now see a 'risk' of three rate hikes in 2022
RBNZ makes hawkish tilt, warning mortgage holders to be wary of debt serviceability while keeping monetary conditions loose
26th May 21, 8:10pm
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RBNZ makes hawkish tilt, warning mortgage holders to be wary of debt serviceability while keeping monetary conditions loose
Businesses urge the RBNZ not to remove the punch bowl that is low interest rates; Economists recognise the party will have to start winding down mid-next year
25th May 21, 7:00am
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Businesses urge the RBNZ not to remove the punch bowl that is low interest rates; Economists recognise the party will have to start winding down mid-next year
BNZ economists say any relief for the current input price pressures 'will not be coming soon'
18th May 21, 10:22am
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BNZ economists say any relief for the current input price pressures 'will not be coming soon'
Economists say this week's Budget is going to make 'good reading' when compared with the gloomy updates over the past year
17th May 21, 2:00pm
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Economists say this week's Budget is going to make 'good reading' when compared with the gloomy updates over the past year
BNZ economists say the Government is 'dead set' on curtailing soaring house prices and will do what it takes - 'it will almost certainly win in the end'
25th Mar 21, 11:14am
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BNZ economists say the Government is 'dead set' on curtailing soaring house prices and will do what it takes - 'it will almost certainly win in the end'
No changes to the country's monetary policy settings are expected when the Reserve Bank has its first review of the year next week - but everybody will be looking for clues as to what comes next
20th Feb 21, 12:27pm
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No changes to the country's monetary policy settings are expected when the Reserve Bank has its first review of the year next week - but everybody will be looking for clues as to what comes next
The shock drop in the unemployment rate has ended all talk of further official interest rate falls and is now prompting increased speculation of rates beginning to rise in 2022
3rd Feb 21, 3:24pm
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The shock drop in the unemployment rate has ended all talk of further official interest rate falls and is now prompting increased speculation of rates beginning to rise in 2022
BNZ report warns the renewed surge in house prices could increase the wealth gap between the haves and have nots
17th Oct 20, 9:53am
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BNZ report warns the renewed surge in house prices could increase the wealth gap between the haves and have nots
Statistics New Zealand says the 12.2% shrinkage of the economy in the June quarter is 'by far the largest on record in New Zealand'; the fall is in line with what major bank economists forecast
17th Sep 20, 10:58am
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Statistics New Zealand says the 12.2% shrinkage of the economy in the June quarter is 'by far the largest on record in New Zealand'; the fall is in line with what major bank economists forecast
The country is set to see its largest ever contraction in the economy reported this week - but the final figure's actually expected to be much smaller than first feared and the focus is already on how much the economy will grow by in the September quarter
14th Sep 20, 1:37pm
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The country is set to see its largest ever contraction in the economy reported this week - but the final figure's actually expected to be much smaller than first feared and the focus is already on how much the economy will grow by in the September quarter
Economists are welcoming the country's faster than expected move to normality after the lockdown but warn that bad news is still ahead regarding unemployment
8th Jun 20, 3:04pm
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Economists are welcoming the country's faster than expected move to normality after the lockdown but warn that bad news is still ahead regarding unemployment
Stephen Toplis says that despite winning the virus battle, it is no time for complacency. The economic costs will be massive and we will be left with enduring problems
3rd May 20, 9:19am
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Stephen Toplis says that despite winning the virus battle, it is no time for complacency. The economic costs will be massive and we will be left with enduring problems
BNZ's head of research Stephen Toplis says economic activity will not return to pre-crisis levels till 2023, while unemployment might not get back below 5% before 2025
30th Mar 20, 3:51pm
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BNZ's head of research Stephen Toplis says economic activity will not return to pre-crisis levels till 2023, while unemployment might not get back below 5% before 2025