Stephen Toplis
BNZ economists say the chances of a recession increase by the day and they are predicting economic growth to 'stall' completely next year; house price falls to get worse
11th May 22, 1:30pm
164
BNZ economists say the chances of a recession increase by the day and they are predicting economic growth to 'stall' completely next year; house price falls to get worse
ANZ economists say latest survey results shows urgent need for RBNZ to hike rates; ANZ sees likely annual inflation of 7.1% as of March quarter end
12th Apr 22, 11:42am
43
ANZ economists say latest survey results shows urgent need for RBNZ to hike rates; ANZ sees likely annual inflation of 7.1% as of March quarter end
Reserve Bank between a rock and a hard place, as it needs to kill inflation without killing the economy
10th Apr 22, 6:00am
162
Reserve Bank between a rock and a hard place, as it needs to kill inflation without killing the economy
BNZ economists say they are raising their inflation forecasts on an almost daily basis while ASB economists are seeing a 'Costpocalypse'
14th Mar 22, 2:48pm
50
BNZ economists say they are raising their inflation forecasts on an almost daily basis while ASB economists are seeing a 'Costpocalypse'
Reserve Bank sees OCR of 3.4% in 2025; plans to reduce its $54 bln holding of Govt bonds
23rd Feb 22, 2:08pm
177
Reserve Bank sees OCR of 3.4% in 2025; plans to reduce its $54 bln holding of Govt bonds
Economists worry government faces 'tough gig' supporting the economy and plugging the infrastructure deficit without exacerbating inflation
21st Dec 21, 11:30am
82
Economists worry government faces 'tough gig' supporting the economy and plugging the infrastructure deficit without exacerbating inflation
BNZ economists anticipate ongoing interest rate increases and constrained household spending; a recession is 'possible' but not their 'central scenario' barring an external shock
22nd Nov 21, 2:12pm
42
BNZ economists anticipate ongoing interest rate increases and constrained household spending; a recession is 'possible' but not their 'central scenario' barring an external shock
BNZ economists say the single biggest uncertainty facing the economy over the next twelve months is how business and consumer sentiment responds to endemic Covid
8th Nov 21, 3:12pm
33
BNZ economists say the single biggest uncertainty facing the economy over the next twelve months is how business and consumer sentiment responds to endemic Covid
Labour market and inflation figures 'strongly demand a more aggressive approach by the Reserve Bank'
BNZ economists say the RBNZ is now 'well and truly behind the curve' as inflation heads to 'a number well above 5%'
18th Oct 21, 2:56pm
46
BNZ economists say the RBNZ is now 'well and truly behind the curve' as inflation heads to 'a number well above 5%'
New Zealand's inflation is set to hit another 10-year high, but the key question will be whether this is a short run thing or the start of a lasting wage and price spiral
14th Oct 21, 9:02am
30
New Zealand's inflation is set to hit another 10-year high, but the key question will be whether this is a short run thing or the start of a lasting wage and price spiral
Reserve Bank lifts Official Cash Rate for first time in 7 years to 0.50% as widely expected
6th Oct 21, 2:05pm
117
Reserve Bank lifts Official Cash Rate for first time in 7 years to 0.50% as widely expected
NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the building sector has gone from being the most optimistic to the most pessimistic sectors surveyed
5th Oct 21, 10:55am
4
NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the building sector has gone from being the most optimistic to the most pessimistic sectors surveyed
The NZIER's latest 'Shadow Board' review ahead of this week's OCR decision shows businesses going cooler on interest rate rises
4th Oct 21, 11:31am
20
The NZIER's latest 'Shadow Board' review ahead of this week's OCR decision shows businesses going cooler on interest rate rises
NZ-based economists still think as long as the Covid outbreak here can be contained reasonably quickly, interest rates will still go up this year - but one international economics firm reckons hikes are off till May next year now
23rd Aug 21, 2:43pm
14
NZ-based economists still think as long as the Covid outbreak here can be contained reasonably quickly, interest rates will still go up this year - but one international economics firm reckons hikes are off till May next year now
No major changes to mortgage rates or house price inflation expected in the near-term on the back of Covid-19 halting a much-anticipated OCR hike
20th Aug 21, 1:26pm
42
No major changes to mortgage rates or house price inflation expected in the near-term on the back of Covid-19 halting a much-anticipated OCR hike
Bank economists respond to a hawkish RBNZ, picking an OCR hike for August, but opinion remains divided over whether the economy needs cooling just yet
14th Jul 21, 7:09pm
62
Bank economists respond to a hawkish RBNZ, picking an OCR hike for August, but opinion remains divided over whether the economy needs cooling just yet
ASB and BNZ tip imminent interest rate rise after NZIER latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows worst ever shortage of labour, while inflation pressures are continuing to mount
6th Jul 21, 10:42am
125
ASB and BNZ tip imminent interest rate rise after NZIER latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows worst ever shortage of labour, while inflation pressures are continuing to mount
Kiwibank economists say there's mounting pressure on mortgage rates to be 'adjusted higher', while they believe the likes of retailers will be more easily able to pass on price rises in the current environment
5th Jul 21, 4:00pm
21
Kiwibank economists say there's mounting pressure on mortgage rates to be 'adjusted higher', while they believe the likes of retailers will be more easily able to pass on price rises in the current environment
BNZ's Stephen Toplis says house price inflation must fall and house prices could too. Supply growth exceeds demand growth and property returns are under pressure. He says the construction boom will moderate
6th Jun 21, 6:01am
105
BNZ's Stephen Toplis says house price inflation must fall and house prices could too. Supply growth exceeds demand growth and property returns are under pressure. He says the construction boom will moderate
Kiwibank economists, who are forecasting a first Official Cash Rate rise in May next year, now see a 'risk' of three rate hikes in 2022
1st Jun 21, 1:26pm
53
Kiwibank economists, who are forecasting a first Official Cash Rate rise in May next year, now see a 'risk' of three rate hikes in 2022
RBNZ makes hawkish tilt, warning mortgage holders to be wary of debt serviceability while keeping monetary conditions loose
26th May 21, 8:10pm
78
RBNZ makes hawkish tilt, warning mortgage holders to be wary of debt serviceability while keeping monetary conditions loose
Businesses urge the RBNZ not to remove the punch bowl that is low interest rates; Economists recognise the party will have to start winding down mid-next year
25th May 21, 7:00am
66
Businesses urge the RBNZ not to remove the punch bowl that is low interest rates; Economists recognise the party will have to start winding down mid-next year
BNZ economists say any relief for the current input price pressures 'will not be coming soon'
18th May 21, 10:22am
35
BNZ economists say any relief for the current input price pressures 'will not be coming soon'
Economists say this week's Budget is going to make 'good reading' when compared with the gloomy updates over the past year
17th May 21, 2:00pm
8
Economists say this week's Budget is going to make 'good reading' when compared with the gloomy updates over the past year
BNZ economists say the Government is 'dead set' on curtailing soaring house prices and will do what it takes - 'it will almost certainly win in the end'
25th Mar 21, 11:14am
237
BNZ economists say the Government is 'dead set' on curtailing soaring house prices and will do what it takes - 'it will almost certainly win in the end'