USD
Fed maintains 5.25% - 5.50% target rate; delivers dovish dot plots/SEPs. Powell refrains from pushing back against easing financial conditions. Greenlight provided for year-end risk rally as Fed-psyche more dovish
14th Dec 23, 9:49am
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Fed maintains 5.25% - 5.50% target rate; delivers dovish dot plots/SEPs. Powell refrains from pushing back against easing financial conditions. Greenlight provided for year-end risk rally as Fed-psyche more dovish
Following volatility spike after US CPI release, markets settle to remain in prevailing ranges. CPI data does not alter expectations for path of Fed policy in 2024
13th Dec 23, 8:30am
Following volatility spike after US CPI release, markets settle to remain in prevailing ranges. CPI data does not alter expectations for path of Fed policy in 2024
US CPI and FOMC decision are this week's major events. If US CPI comes in as expected, the focus will shift to the Fed's latest projections/dot plots. Meanwhile the NZD trades in a narrow range
12th Dec 23, 8:26am
US CPI and FOMC decision are this week's major events. If US CPI comes in as expected, the focus will shift to the Fed's latest projections/dot plots. Meanwhile the NZD trades in a narrow range
Market pares 2024 rate cut expectations following solid US job report - yields/US dollar bounce. A huge week ahead headlined by Fed decision; ECB & BoE also meet, NZ 3Q GDP the local headliner
11th Dec 23, 8:57am
Market pares 2024 rate cut expectations following solid US job report - yields/US dollar bounce. A huge week ahead headlined by Fed decision; ECB & BoE also meet, NZ 3Q GDP the local headliner
NZD consolidates gains. BoJ comments spark re-pricing frenzy, JPY takes flight. China trade data indicative of struggling economy, import volumes sluggish
8th Dec 23, 8:20am
NZD consolidates gains. BoJ comments spark re-pricing frenzy, JPY takes flight. China trade data indicative of struggling economy, import volumes sluggish
Chinese authorities defend yuan following Moody's outlook downgrade. Soft US ADP Employment change. Australian economic growth eases to slowest pace in 12 months; Markets likely to enter into a holding pattern ahead of US non-farm jobs numbers
7th Dec 23, 8:34am
Chinese authorities defend yuan following Moody's outlook downgrade. Soft US ADP Employment change. Australian economic growth eases to slowest pace in 12 months; Markets likely to enter into a holding pattern ahead of US non-farm jobs numbers
US bond yields, dollar fall as Fed hawk Waller delivers dovish leaning speech. Australian nominal retail sales contracts for first time in 4 mths; RBA done?
29th Nov 23, 8:06am
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US bond yields, dollar fall as Fed hawk Waller delivers dovish leaning speech. Australian nominal retail sales contracts for first time in 4 mths; RBA done?
US equities topside momentum slowing following eye-watering ascent. A December risk rally contingent on the outcome of upcoming US jobs/CPI data
28th Nov 23, 8:20am
US equities topside momentum slowing following eye-watering ascent. A December risk rally contingent on the outcome of upcoming US jobs/CPI data
Despite US treasury yield rebound, US dollar weaker against all major peers. DXY falls below 200d MA, on track for largest MoM decline in 12 months
27th Nov 23, 9:01am
Despite US treasury yield rebound, US dollar weaker against all major peers. DXY falls below 200d MA, on track for largest MoM decline in 12 months
NZD consolidates above 60 US cents, meets resistance in 0.6060's. Subdued trade given US equity & bond markets closed for Thanksgiving. Eurozone and UK PMIs beat expectations suggesting mild recessions likely
24th Nov 23, 7:46am
NZD consolidates above 60 US cents, meets resistance in 0.6060's. Subdued trade given US equity & bond markets closed for Thanksgiving. Eurozone and UK PMIs beat expectations suggesting mild recessions likely
US bond yields and dollar higher following strong weekly jobless claims. Mich Consumer Sentiment survey: 1-yr inflation expectations at 7mth high. Equities up, yields up, crude down, gold down, US dollar up
23rd Nov 23, 8:13am
US bond yields and dollar higher following strong weekly jobless claims. Mich Consumer Sentiment survey: 1-yr inflation expectations at 7mth high. Equities up, yields up, crude down, gold down, US dollar up
Market has concluded the Fed is done, soft landing the likely outcome. Risk sensitive assets consolidate US CPI induced gains; further gains ahead?
20th Nov 23, 9:19am
Market has concluded the Fed is done, soft landing the likely outcome. Risk sensitive assets consolidate US CPI induced gains; further gains ahead?
Softer headline & core US CPI validates peak rate calls; Fed looks to be done. US bond yields sink, 10-yr plunges below 4.50%. Risk on: US equity markets rocket higher
15th Nov 23, 8:31am
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Softer headline & core US CPI validates peak rate calls; Fed looks to be done. US bond yields sink, 10-yr plunges below 4.50%. Risk on: US equity markets rocket higher
Hushed start as the market slips into wait-and-see mode ahead of US CPI. US bond yields bounced late last week following ugly 30-year note auction
14th Nov 23, 7:49am
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Hushed start as the market slips into wait-and-see mode ahead of US CPI. US bond yields bounced late last week following ugly 30-year note auction
Fed-speak: Barkin & Bostic lean dovish, mild downside bias for dollar. S&P500 attempting to achieve longest winning streak (9 days) since 2004. NZD meets resistance above 0.5950
10th Nov 23, 7:54am
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Fed-speak: Barkin & Bostic lean dovish, mild downside bias for dollar. S&P500 attempting to achieve longest winning streak (9 days) since 2004. NZD meets resistance above 0.5950
Fed officials push back against last week's dovish interpretation. USD reverses some of last week's sell-off despite yields failing to bounce. DXY entered a consolidative phase from early October, may breakout on CPI
9th Nov 23, 8:00am
Fed officials push back against last week's dovish interpretation. USD reverses some of last week's sell-off despite yields failing to bounce. DXY entered a consolidative phase from early October, may breakout on CPI
Fed officials out in force this week to remind that inflation is still too high. RBA delivers consensus 25bps hike to 4.35%; AUD falls in response
8th Nov 23, 8:47am
Fed officials out in force this week to remind that inflation is still too high. RBA delivers consensus 25bps hike to 4.35%; AUD falls in response
Longer dated yields arrest last week's slide, modestly higher to start week. Tight range trading the order of play. Numerous Fed officials speaking: will they kick back against dovishness?
7th Nov 23, 7:58am
Longer dated yields arrest last week's slide, modestly higher to start week. Tight range trading the order of play. Numerous Fed officials speaking: will they kick back against dovishness?
Bond yields notably lower for a third day, US 10-year yield dips below 4.50%. Soft US jobs report: 150K jobs & 3.9% jobless rate; stick a fork in the Fed. ISM Services PMI falls to lowest level in 5 mths; data flow turning
6th Nov 23, 8:51am
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Bond yields notably lower for a third day, US 10-year yield dips below 4.50%. Soft US jobs report: 150K jobs & 3.9% jobless rate; stick a fork in the Fed. ISM Services PMI falls to lowest level in 5 mths; data flow turning
Bond yields extend rapid pullback, 10-year yield ~35bips off recent high. BoE delivers widely expected on-hold decision. Equities up, yields down, crude up, gold up, US dollar down
3rd Nov 23, 8:31am
Bond yields extend rapid pullback, 10-year yield ~35bips off recent high. BoE delivers widely expected on-hold decision. Equities up, yields down, crude up, gold up, US dollar down
Stuart Talman reviews the US Fed update. Fed delivers widely expected on-hold decision, maintains tightening bias. Bond yields fall on soft ADP/ISM Mfg & Treasury refinancing announcement
2nd Nov 23, 9:46am
Stuart Talman reviews the US Fed update. Fed delivers widely expected on-hold decision, maintains tightening bias. Bond yields fall on soft ADP/ISM Mfg & Treasury refinancing announcement
Risk sentiment dented as Gaza ceasefire reports prove false. Nasdaq & S&P500 log worst October in 5 years. Bond yields ease on safe haven flows. A mammoth week ahead: BoJ may upstage the US Fed
30th Oct 23, 8:55am
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Risk sentiment dented as Gaza ceasefire reports prove false. Nasdaq & S&P500 log worst October in 5 years. Bond yields ease on safe haven flows. A mammoth week ahead: BoJ may upstage the US Fed
NASDAQ slammed (over -2%) following Alphabet earnings disappointment. Despite concerning geopolitical newsflow long dated US yields resume ascent. Hot quarterly AUS CPI report locks in a resumption of RBA tightening cycle
26th Oct 23, 9:20am
NASDAQ slammed (over -2%) following Alphabet earnings disappointment. Despite concerning geopolitical newsflow long dated US yields resume ascent. Hot quarterly AUS CPI report locks in a resumption of RBA tightening cycle
US 10-year yield pierces 5% before aggressively rejecting, pulls back to 4.84%. Catalyst: Ackman tweet; hedge fund manager exits short bond trade. US equities attempt to arrest 4-day slide; S&P500 tests critical 4200 support
24th Oct 23, 8:43am
US 10-year yield pierces 5% before aggressively rejecting, pulls back to 4.84%. Catalyst: Ackman tweet; hedge fund manager exits short bond trade. US equities attempt to arrest 4-day slide; S&P500 tests critical 4200 support
Fed Chair Powell's speech induces see-sawing price action. Ultimately bond yields continue ascent & stocks look increasingly vulnerable. Soft Aussie jobs report does little to shift outlook for RBA
20th Oct 23, 8:44am
Fed Chair Powell's speech induces see-sawing price action. Ultimately bond yields continue ascent & stocks look increasingly vulnerable. Soft Aussie jobs report does little to shift outlook for RBA