A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; no retail rates changes, none for the OCR either, no capital gains or wealth taxes, more workers arrive, swaps soft, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). 

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.

ON HOLD AS ECONOMY SLOWS
The RBNZ hit the pause button today after nearly two years of OCR hikes as the economy shows signs of slowing. The OCR stays at 5.50%, surprising virtually no-one. A savvy perspective of the decision is here.

'NOT ON MY WATCH'
The Prime Minister has said that the capital gains and wealth taxes which were being considered in Budget 2023, won't be part of Labour's 2023 election platform.

OVERSEAS WORKERS FLOODING IN
More than 105,000 overseas workers have arrived in the country since the beginning of the year. That is an average of +15,000 per month and at that pace it is like adding a Hamilton every year. (But only if no-one leaves, and of course emigration is elevated too.) The data released today for June and is from MBIE. More data was released today by Stats NZ but that was for May and that more generic data showed May was the second month where the pace was down sharply from the peak seen earlier in the year.

OVERSEAS VISITOR ARRIVAL GROWTH EASES
Overseas visitor arrivals were 160,300 in May, up 87,600 from the May 2022 month. The biggest changes were in arrivals from Australia (up 24,200), United States (up 10,100), India (up 9,000). China (up 7,600), and Korea (up 2,900). But Infometrics signaled a note of caution: "The pace of recovery in tourism arrivals moderated in May, reinforcing our view that the global economic slowdown is taking momentum out of international tourism. We expect higher living costs and interest rates will keep a lid on Australian arrivals, which eased from 81% of pre-pandemic levels in April to 78% in May."

STABLE NEGATIVE CONFIDENCE
The Rabobank June farmer confidence survey found confidence in the broader agricultural economy was still very low and little-changed on the previous quarter (March), with the net confidence reading rising to -57%, from -58% previously. Farmers were also more positive about the prospects for their own farm business performance, with the net confidence reading for this measure rising to -35%, from -45% previously.

BANK STRIKE THREATENED
First Union said more than 95% of its members have voted to reject a pay offer from Westpac after 4 months of bargaining, and they will vote on taking industrial action this week. Only a minority of Westpac's workers are in the union however. They says they are seeking "significant pay rises that reflect the bank’s excessive profitability". First Union is also striking some parts of the Auckland Transport bus network.

SWAPS SLIP AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower again today. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.69% and now +19 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down another -6 bps from this time yesterday at 4.17%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.69%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate has again eased back, this time by -10 bps to 4.80%, but still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which also fell -10 bps to 4.74%. The UST 10 year yield has fallen back, and by another -4 bps, to just on 3.96%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER AGAIN
The S&P500 ended its Tuesday session on Wall Street up +0.7%. Tokyo has opened its Wednesday session down -0.8%. Hong Kong has risen strongly at its open, up +1.2%. Shanghai is unchanged in their early trade. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. The NZX50 which is down just -0.1% in late trade after overcoming earlier weakness.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$15 from where we were this time yesterday, now at US$1940/oz. It closed earlier in New York at US$1932/oz, and earlier still in London at US$1935/oz

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is marginally firmer, now at just on 62.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +½c at just over 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 56.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is also up but just slightly to 70.4.

BITCOIN UP +US$14
The bitcoin price has held today and is now at US$30,611 which is virtually unchanged from yesterday's US$30,597. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.8%. It is very noticeable that since TradFin acceptance, this price action has virtually stalled.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».