Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today so far.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Update: ANZ raised its 6 month rate to 5.85% and their 1 year rate to 6.00% Both are +5 bps increases.
HOPEFULLY THE START OF A RECOVERY
Dairy auction prices rose for the second successive auction overnight. Both overall prices and key whole milk powder prices rose +4.6%. But these tow increases don't really move the trend higher. positive evidence will be required from more auctions. And the signs of rising demand in China are not there yet. Fonterra is reported to have 500,000 tonnes of WMP in storage there awaiting an upturn. The 2023/24 season is still very uncertain. More here.
SMALLER DEFICIT
The current account deficit shrank to -7.5% of GDP in Q2-2023 from -7.9% a year ago, which was more than economists expected. Shifting the dial was a higher level of exports, including much better service exports. Slower imports helped too.
FEWER LIABILITIES
Our net international liability position was $189.3 bln (-47.8% of GDP). A year ago it was $184.8 bln or -50.8% of GDP. Net external debt was -47.5% of GDP compared to -49.5% in Q2-2022
HIGH DEMAND, HIGH RATE, LOW MARGIN
Auckland Council attracted high levels of demand for its secured, unsubordinated five year fixed rate green bonds and took $300 mln, the top of its indicated range. The high demand meant it could price them at the bottom of its indicated pricing range, 65 bps, meaning it will pay 5.734% for this funding (or $47,100 in interest per calendar day, just for this bond).
RESILIENCE ACTIVITY
Budget 2023 allocated $100 mln for flood protection and resilience. Today $15 mln was released to raise the ~200 homes, about half of them in Te Karaka, Tairāwhiti, in a locally-led project. Another $10 mln package targets nine projects which will support economic recovery in Hawke’s Bay, Tairāwhiti and Northland.
TAXING AIR BNB
In Victoria, the State Government said (page 20) it will tax short-stay rental platforms 7.5% from 2025. There are more than 36,000 short-stay accommodation places in Victoria and almost half of these are in regional centers. More than 29,000 of those places are entire homes. The goal is more affordable long-term rental accommodation. But their tourism industry is livid.
LESS IN JAPAN
After a good surge in 2021 and 2022, Japanese exports slipped -0.8% in August from a year ago, a second month of no expansion. Their exports to China dropped -11%. But at least overall they are holding on to their earlier gains. And the August slip was less than feared. Imports however fell more than expected, the most in three years. But most of this can be attributed to big falls in oil products (-33%), and it is encouraging that Japan is learning how to do with significantly less oil.
HOLDING AT RECORD LOWS
China held its Loan Prime rates in its monthly review today. This is what analysts expected. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), which is the medium-term lending facility used for corporate and household loans was kept unchanged at a record low of 3.45%; and the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was held at 4.2% for the third straight month.
"STAY, WE ARE LISTENING"
China is worried about the outflow of funds by foreign investors. Today it held a 'symposium' for JPMorgan Chase Bank, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, UBS Securities, Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, Tesla, BASF, Trafigura, Schneider and other foreign financial institutions and foreign-funded enterprises to hear of their concerns, and provide reassurances.
SWAPS FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates probably pushed a little higher yet again today across the whole curve. But the real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is little-changed at 5.67%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps to 4.16%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps to 5.14% which is almost back at its August high, but still well above the earlier RBNZ fixing of 5.08% which was up +7 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is now almost at 4.37% which up +7 bps from this time yesterday and more than a 15 year high (back to levels pre-GFC.
EQUITIES UNENTHUSIASTIC AHEAD OF THE FED
The NZX50 is down -0.2% near today's close. The ASX200 is down another -0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.4% in early trade. Hong Kong has opened its Wednesday trade down -0.6%, and Shanghai has opened down -0.4%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Tuesday session down -0.2%.
GOLD EDGES DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1930/oz and down -US$2 from this time yesterday. It closed earlier in New York at US$1931/oz, and earlier still in London at US$1935/oz.
NZD STILL STUCK IN TIGHT RANGE
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this time yesterday at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are firmish at 92.1 AUc. Against the euro we are firm at 55.6 euro cents. The TWI-5 is however little-changed from yesterday at just under 68.6.
BITCOIN MOVES UP AGAIN
The bitcoin price is higher again and now at US$27,193 and up another +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.3%.
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