Population growth from migration is up 28.5% compared to pre-Covid levels, according to the latest estimates from Statistics New Zealand.
Statistics NZ estimates there was a net migration gain (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures) of 9464 in August this year, up by 28.5% compared to the net gain of 7364 in August 2019.
That comprised a net loss of 4083 NZ citizens as more New Zealanders moved overseas than arrived back in the country after an extended stay away, and a net gain of 13,547 non-NZ citizens.
In August 2019 there was a net gain of 520 NZ citizens and a net gain of 6844 non-NZ citizens.
Population growth from migration dropped to just a few hundred a month between April 2020, when pandemic-related travel restrictions were introduced, and October 2020, and turned negative in most months between November 2020 June 2022.
Migration growth then began to climb steadily from July 2022 as travel and migration restrictions were eased, with the net, monthly estimated population gain hitting 14,542 in March this year.
Annual increase a record high
In the 12 months to August this year Statistics NZ estimates there was a net population gain from migration of 110,200, an all time high.
It takes 16 months for Statistics NZ's migration figures to be finalised, and the early figures in particular can be subject to significant revisions, either up or down.
But even allowing for that, the latest estimates suggest immigration is now driving significant population growth.
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55 Comments
Population of Hamilton....... urgently need to kick off the Infrastructure funding and building as soon as the coalition begins Sunday.
Yet NACT want to increase immigration and cut back Govt spending.
THe fringe/crazy parties are looking more sane by the minute.
Remember way back in 2017 when Labour, Greens, NZ First and TOP all thought 5 million was a nice round figure, thank you very much?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/policy-series-where-do-the-parties-stand-…
That would be one new hospital, a dozen plus schools, a few more GP practices etc....anyone seen them?
Miles of new roads, sewers, stormwater drains plus extra nurses, dentists, accountants, lawyers - even another MP.
Ah Hamish you are so right. A year ago the Watercare director for Auckland said they were building out the system to support 500K more people. Auckland alone has grown heaps since I moved here 25 years ago. Not one new hospital in 25 years with a huge population increase. This country is in dire need of more hospitals for the existing population.
Not this Sunday, Winston will still be out on his boat fishing.
Tell us! why is it the Taxpayers of NZ's job to house these people? if you immigrate to a new country surely it is your own responsibility to house/feed & clothe yourself, through your eyes, is it that you can move to and go where you like, and the country that you end up in, it's their responsibility to house them...get real!!!!! all 3 of our children have moved and lived all around the world and they have housed themselves! but you are saying here in NZ the Tax paying citizens will build and house all of the immigrants....yeah right!!
Like it or not, house prices have already started rising, and will continue to do so gradually. Buy now.
If this be the case, like it or not, there remains considerable upside to interest rates then? If history is a guide, something usually gives in situations such as this. Houses have to rise a lot more than "gradually" to exceed the prevailing rate of inflation so there is simply no need for FOMO. I think FHB's are wise to wait out this temporary pause in the declines while saving and using attractive TD rates as a tool in which to do so. I think price declines will once again resume a downward trajectory come Autumn 2024.
We haven't seen the real downturn yet....
Houses have to rise a lot more than "gradually" to exceed the prevailing rate of inflation so there is simply no need for FOMO
Except houses are typically bought with a mortgage.
So even if inflation and your salary increase faster than house prices, they can still be further out of reach.
Example:
Inflation 5%
Salary increase 5%
House prices up 3%
Starting household salary: $200,000
Starting house price: $1,000,000
In 1 year's time:
New household salary: $210,000 (up $10,000)
New house price: $1,030,000 (up $30,000)
Sure, you're dropping from a DTI of 4.0 to 3.9, but you still need a bigger loan (Ceteris paribus)
Depends on your equity level. If you only have a 20% deposit a 1 mil house is out of reach anyway, but if you have 50% equity, the interest earned would outpace the increase in property price.
Yes of course it depends on your equity level. That example was more for typical FHB territory where most would have 20% (or less) deposit. 1 mil house with 20% deposit is most definitely possible, and probably typical in Auckland. ~$1,000/wk interest.
Bye now.
Delusional. The strain on meeting mortgages, rising rates, insurances and cost of living is rising by the day. Eventually it crack and supply of housing will boom as these distressed owners homes come on the market.
Increased immigration does not lower these costs - they make it worse!
Like I said before, the entire situation started late last year and only gets reported now. The volume of foreign passports we've been managing daily since November is extraordinary. (I don’t work for immigration)
Not sure about how we are going to cope as the demand will be huge.
What sector are you in, for relevance?
This is going to save the housing market from catastrophe, regardless of the impacts of the current normalization of interest rates. Actually, there is nothing now preventing the OCR from going to 6% before end of the next quarter.
Maybe not as evident in the context of rising house prices, but rent is likely to increase further (rent boom) helping alleviate pressure from high interest rates. Everyone wants to live in the main centres and particular suburbs but not enough houses being built because cost is too high.
I agree, the RBNZ is sitting on their hands at the wrong time. The next inflation read will be a doozy, and the RBNZ's target of 1-3% inflation will take a few more years..
That's a lot, hopefully not a rate that is sustained.
Before people get too excited, there is a big element of catchup from 2020/21.
Really this recent surge just takes us back to where we were.
Yes, hope is all we have.
Actually, if you look at the monthly stats, immigration has levelled out at a net gain of 10k per month. Whoever adjusted the immigration rules is doing the exact opposite of what the RBNZ is trying to achieve. The number of immigrants will likely grow, as we get more climate change refugees...
Awesome!! 13,547 new civil/geotech/mechanical/electronic engineers, nurses, anaesthetists, vascular surgeons, doctors etc etc.
Looking forward to our national infrastructure boosting back up to full health in the very near future..
That number is just one side of the equation. We do not track how many skills are leaving NZ and at what level probably because the authorities are too scared of what might come up in the stats.
I work for a mid-sized engineering consultancy and there is literally a couple of qualified engineers leaving every fortnight for greener pastures. The entire developed world is witnessing an infrastructure boom and those with genuine skills are absolutely spoiled for choice.
Heard the same from the medical field. One hospital (not going to name it) is soon going to have zero doctors in a particular specialty, as all of them have accepted jobs in Australia. They are already flying in doctors from other parts of the country to perform weekend shifts.
I have been waiting a year just to sign up to a medical centre in my new town as they can't get new doctors. My old towns medical centre doesn't even have a doctor anymore. Lack of doctors in many parts of NZ isn't even an election issue because the MS media reporters are based in cities where it isn't such an issue for them, so they lack perspective.
That’s terrible. And while not as bad as that, my experience accessing healthcare services in Auckland has been pretty bad in the last year or so.
This country is descending into a debacle. And no one in power (including the media) really cares. It’s about apathy in terms of the common good, and self interest and individualism.
I know a few young engineers and the last 6 months they've all taken off for a belated OE. It's certainly not all roses though, the ones that have landed in London have taken a pay cut and are paying twice the rent compared to working in Auckland.
As the Third World arrives here to be exploited, we send our young to the First World to be exploited there.
The UK is a mess though. Oz looks more attractive.
Engineers are comparatively underpaid in the uk. I'm not sure why. When I graduated as an engineer, salaries were about 20% more in nz. I recently was offered a job in Essex and discovered it is still the same.
But customs data shows that there's actually a net decrease of people coming to and leaving the country, so that means everything is fine??
Get the message young Kiwis?
Absolutely no hope for you remaining in New Zealand.
This is the result of the management of the Labor government who were supposed to be looking after average Kiwi interests. National/Act will be far worse.
Flood the country with even more low wage workers so forget wage rises and affordable houses.
Open up the housing market to foreign buyers and investors so homes will be even less affordable.
If you are personally secure, the future that your children and grandchildren face is dire.
There are absolutely no voting options that will change this trend so your only hope is to vote with your feet and let NZ spiral into a South Pacific Argentina.
Its simply not possible to flood the country with more immigrants, as Labour is currently approving every single visa request with no checks being undertaken. So everyone who wants to come here, can already come here. Labour also removed the cap on numbers, and the requirement to have any skills or for there to be jobs for them to come to. I cannot think of a single thing that National could possibly do to increase immigration beyond Labour's policy except to do a Jacinda and promise them all permanent residency simply for getting off the plane.
Its a bit misleading to categorise those coming back to the country as "migrants" when the reality is that they were simply Kiwis and NZ Permanent Residents who had the misfortune to be locked out of their country for 3 years and were unable to return home.
During the middle of 2023 there was a big outflow of people, however, as of July that has turned around. Seems Immigration's new policy of blindly handing out visas to anyone who wants one, including to their dogs, is working as arrival numbers have ramped up to late 2022 post-border opening numbers. This is why there has been a sudden jump in rents, and a bottom reached in the housing market. If this keeps up I would expect that a rental crisis will soon develop like it has in Australia and Canada, only worse, as in NZ new arrivals cannot buy houses.
Net arrivals since border re-opening: (from Customs daily data)
Sept 2022 19,677
Oct 2022 36,869
Nov 2022 48,876
Dec 2022 46,178
Jan 2023 9,199
Feb 2023 58,997
Mar 2023 -24,355
Apr 2023 -34,339
May 2023 -33,250
Jun 2023 -15,930
Jul 2023 46,522
Aug 2023 -7,203
Sep 2023 8,749
1-8 Oct 2023 16,007
K W , can you please post the link to that next arrivals data, thanks
https://www.stats.govt.nz/experimental/covid-19-data-portal/
You need to compile the daily data yourself.
Where did you get the September figures from, its not showing on their website
I add them up myself from the dailies.
So where are they going to live. What about all the new power generation, new hospitals, new homes, new roads and all the extra funding etc to pay for them?Or is that a problem for future governments.
Governments in this country never give any thought to any of those things. Short termism reigns supreme.
We conveniently privatized our power generation.
I assume people on work visas are not entitled to the dole, and have to return to their home country if they don’t find alternative employment?
Correct. Unless we see a repeat of this so they may bring their family whom all get full entitlements upon arrival:
Nearly 165,000 migrants eligible for fast-tracked residency | Stuff.co.nz
I know immigrants that vote NZ First as they don't want NZ to turn into where they came from...they get it!
My wife (a PI) for one.
NZ Customs publish monthly passenger arrival and departure numbers for all NZ airports. Just pure number people in and people out. 2022 was a big year for arrivals 101k net more arrivals than departures.132k gain net in Q4 2022 alone. But 2023 is a different story Jan to Aug 2023 was an overall net loss of 2k. September figures are yet to be released.
There could be some month to month distortions due to tourism seasonal flows. But it seems that once the Q4 2022 bubble works its way through then the year to date number will take a big dip in Jan 2024.
When are we supposedly going to have net zero carbon emissions? Really soon eh?
When you have reduced your standard of living so low, that your sacrifice provides headroom so newly arrived immigrants can do all the things you used to be able to do,
Putting forty male immigrants into a 3-bed house reduces required the per capita heating and its associated carbon emissions. Of course if they thrive then they will need forty houses and their associated carbon emissions; if new houses the high emissions from concrete.
Near record numbers of kiwis leaving to Australia too, per B. Hickey
Seriously? The schools are crowded, roads are busy, can't get into the local doctors for weeks, waiting lists at hospitals for however longer.
Population doubled where I live and maybe a new doctor and teacher but that's not enough.
We really do seem to be incapable of learning from our history.
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