Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
FinanceDirect raised its 18 month - 36 month term deposit rates.
TOP END STRENGTH
Dominant Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson said it's November sales transactions were up strongly, and prices also rose. They recorded particularly strong sales growth at the top end of the market last month.
UPSIDE RISKS?
The overnight dairy auction impressed some analysts. For example, Westpac said "Dairy auction prices posted solid gains overnight. The positive result was also broad-based. As a result, we see some upside risks to our 2023/24 milk price forecast of $7.25/kg."
KIWIBANK BEGINS OFFERING APPLE PAY
Kiwibank has finally begun offering Apple Pay to its customers, which was first offered in NZ by ANZ in October 2016. CEO Steve Jurkovich says Kiwibank staff have put in "a huge amount of work to drive forward our technology transformation" over the past few years. There's plenty more to come after the launch of Apple Pay, he says.
DEBUT TOUTS PROGRESS
Fintech Debut says while its services aren't yet available to the general public, it has now launched mobile payments via "an early production" version with a select group of colleagues, friends, family and business partners who can "pay for things using their phone or watch via Debut." It's promising "a big reveal along with some exciting announcements in January."
ASB TO OFFER WOOLWORTHS REWARDS TO CREDIT CARD CUSTOMERS
ASB says it has signed up to be "founding bank partner" for Woolworths' Everyday Rewards programme which launches in February. This means ASB Rewards credit card customers will have the choice of earning Everyday Rewards points on their credit card spend, or redeeming them on their grocery shop at Woolworths, or fuel at BP. Countdown supermarkets are being rebranded as Woolworths.
CAR LOANS SECURITISED
Avanti just securitised $200 mln of its car loan book, selling it to investors.
98% NOT VEGETARIAN
Researchers at Auckland University say that the widely-quoted level of how many Kiwis are vegetarian (20%) is almost certainly a wild overestimation. Their intensive research shows it closer to 2%. Vegan is likely less than 1%. (That seems right to us; the vegetarian cafe on the street level of our office building folded recently, unable to generate enough interest.)
ANOTHER FAILED CARBON MARKET TENDER
Today's carbon market tender was a fizzer (or in the official speak "the auction did not clear"). There were 15 mln offered, but bids for only 3.6 mln. And those bids were less than for the Q3 event, and were at prices that did not induce the Government to sell. The most recent NZU price has been $75/NZU. According to ANZ, the price would have needed to be at least $173/NZU to get the Crown to sell 2.9 mln units, and $216/NZU to get them interested in the rest. Obviously bids didn't come anywhere near that. The new government is going to can a review of the ETS. There was already significant uncertainty around the ETS, but a cancelled review doesn't address carbon market uncertainty. Just for perspective, the EU carbon price is now down at €71 (NZ$125) and its lowest in 14 months and back to levels first achieved in November 2021. Carbon prices are falling worldwide now. More here.
UNPLEASANT NOVEMBER
The independent Aussie PMI from the Australian Industry Group was something of a depressing read. Their Index sank deeper into contraction in November on the back of falling demand and activity. It is now back at levels last seen in the depths of the pandemic. The activity/sales, new orders and input volumes indicators all materially fell in the month. Employment increased marginally. November is the lowest reading since June 2020. On a trend basis, all four activity indicators point to contractionary conditions.
PLEASANT SURPRISE, OR NOT
Australia released at Q3 GDP data today, showing their economy grew +2.1% in the September quarter from the same period in 2022. That is better than the expected +1.8% year-on-year expansion, and the same as their Q2 expansion. Having noted all these year-on-year changes, we should also note that the change from the June quarter came in softer than anticipated - and it is this softness that is grabbing headlines across the ditch, especially the lower household incomes. It is a sharp contraction in per capita terms.
CHINA REDUX?
China is really battling that flu outbreak we noted a week or so ago. Hospitals are crowded, healthcare employees very stressed. Authorities are worried, using language that is easily decoded by their population..
SWAPS SOFT
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally lower today. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.64% and now +14 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -15 bps 4.31%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.70%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -10 bps at 4.92%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.84% which was down -15 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.19% and down -7 bps from yesterday. The UST 2yr is now at 4.60% so that key curve inversion is marginally higher at -41 bps.
EQUITIES RETREAT
The NZX50 is heading for a minor -0.2% retreat in late trade today. But the ASX200 is down a more substantial -0.9% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -1.4%. Hong Kong has opened down -1.2% with its usual volatility. Shanghai is down -0.6% at its open. And Singapore is little-changed at its start. The S&P500 ended down -0.5% in Monday trade in New York.
OIL SLIPS YET AGAIN
The crude oil price is down -US$1 from yesterday, now at a low US$72.50/bbl in the US, and the Brent benchmark is at US$77.50/bbl.
GOLD RETRACES FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2020/oz and down another -US$14 from this time yesterday. Earlier in New York it closed at US$2019/oz. And earlier still it closed in London at US$2023/oz.
NZD FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is moved sideways, net, from this time yesterday at 61.6 USc. Against the Aussie we have risen +40 bps to 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 57.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is marginally higher at 70.6.
BITCOIN RISES AGAIN
The bitcoin price has moved up to US$43,847, a new 20 month high and up +5.1% from where this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.7%.
APOLOGY IN ADVANCE
Please note that tomorrow's edition of this report might be a tad later than its usual 4pm release. (Or maybe it will not even appear.) It is the interest.co.nz end of year function starting at mid-day.
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