A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; TD rates ease up, house completion fall, Fonterra raises dairy payout indicator, some ugly NZX ugliness, swaps hold, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). It's a skinny edition today.

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None so far today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised its six month TD rate, and lowered rates for terms 2 years and longer. More here.

FALL-OFF
There was a big drop in the number of new homes completed in Auckland at the end of last year. But this decline may not be the start of an expected downturn in housing supply, it may just be seasonal.

THROUGH THE SLUMP, UP FROM HERE
Giant dairy co-operative Fonterra has raised its milk price for farmers by an implied 30 cents to $7.80 per kilogram of milk solids - meaning the early season slump in prices has been almost completely reversed. This comes after most bank analysts signaled a rise was coming.

NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR SYNLAIT
Meanwhile small rival Synlait has told shareholders they are facing an ugly year in their half year trading update.

EXPENSIVE MONEY
SBS Bank's $60 mln subordinated bond offer had its margin range announced today of between 3.0% and 3.2%. And they said the interest rate for the first five and a half years until the First Optional Redemption Date will be no less than the minimum interest rate of 7.35% pa.

GETTING UGLIER
Not only is SkyCity facing a huge fine of AML breaches at its Adelaide casino, now New Zealand authorities are moving against it for AML breaches at its casinos in Auckland, Hamilton and Queenstown.

TRADING HALT
"FBU has requested [a] trading halt to allow it to finalise earnings guidance which it proposes to release to the market, which is likely to materially vary from current analyst forecasts. The information to allow FBU to do this will arise as the Board and sub-committee of the Board finalise FBU's half year accounts."

A MUTED HOLIDAY SEASON
Kiwibank's Household Spending Tracker reports that electronic card spending by Kiwibank customers rose 5% over the December quarter. "But 2023’s silly seasonal Santa spike was far more muted compared to previous years. Over the quarter, consumer spend was just 0.4% higher than 2022’s levels. And in the month of December, spend was unchanged. But given the (visible) hand of inflation, no change in the value of spend forewarns a decline in the volume of spend. Our data revealed exactly that. The number of transactions were 3% fewer over December compared to 2022, and down 3.3% on the quarter. With high inflation and rising interest rates, Kiwi households were clearly more reluctant to spend in 2023. Such restraint continued into the festive season. And 2024 will likely be more of the same. January spend also looks to have been a weak month, with the typical lift in hospitality underperforming."

STILL OVER +4%
Costs from grocery suppliers to supermarkets increased +4.3% in January from a year ago, according to the The Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index. However this is another moderation in input cost pressures, but not by much. This index was up +4.5% in December, although up +10.0% in January 2023.

EXITS
The Financial Services Council announced the resignation of CEO, Richard Klipin. And the Auckland-centered EMA said its CEO Brett O’Riley will "hand over the mantle" mid year.

SWAP RATES RISE FURTHER
Wholesale swap rates will probably be higher yet again today, but mostly the one year term. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp to 5.69%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 4.17%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.45%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up another +2 bps at 4.93% and a one month high, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.79% and down -2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.18% and unchanged from this morning. The UST 2yr is at 4.49% and so that key inversion is now just on -31 bps.

EQUITY WINNERS & LOSERS
The NZX50 has opened the week down -0.8%. The tough announcements from the three companies above haven't helped. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in early afternoon trade. Tokyo is closed for National Foundation Day. Hong Kong is also closed for the New Year holiday, as is Shanghai and Singapore. The S&P500 futures suggests Wall Street will open tomorrow up +0.3%.

OIL PRICES HOLD
Oil prices are still at just over US$76.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$81.50/bbl.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2023 and down -US$1 from this morning's open.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from where we opened this morning, now at 61.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are at 94 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 56.8 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at just under 70.9 today and also little-changed from this morning.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price has moved little today, now at US$48,435 and up +0.6% from this morning's open. There's been modest volatility again over the past 24 hours of just on +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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