Migrants from India, the Philippines, China and Fiji are likely to be the most affected by the Government's proposed changes to work visa rules

Government proposals aimed at reducing the number of migrants coming into New Zealand from what it describes as the currently "unsustainable" levels, could literally change the face of the migrant population.

Last year just over a quarter of a million people arrived in NZ long term, and the biggest source country by far for migrant arrivals was India, with almost 51,000 Indian citizens migrating to here last year, according to Statistics NZ figures.

They were followed by more than 36,000 Philippine citizens, almost 27,000 citizens of China and 11,000 citizens of Fiji. (See the table below for the main source countries of migrants).

The Government has said it intends to take aim at the rules for obtaining a work visa, making it more difficult for low skilled workers to enter the country.

Last year people on work visas were easily the biggest source of migrants, with almost 89,000 coming on work visas. (See the second graph below).

Once again, India was by far the biggest source of migrants on work visas, with 15,000 Indian citizens arriving on work visas last year. They were followed by 10,000 Chinese citizens, almost 10,000 from the Philippines and 4600 from Fiji.

After the top four countries of citizenship, work visa arrival numbers from other countries drop away fairly quickly to just a few thousand a year.

So although we don't know the details of the government's planned changes yet, it's likely that migrant arrivals from India could be sharply reduced, probably followed by those from China, the Philippines and Fiji.

Of course it's not just citizens of other countries that affect NZ's migrant flows. NZ citizens also have a propensity to live and work overseas and last year almost 75,000 left NZ on a long term basis. If they had not gone, the impact of the number of overseas citizens coming to NZ would have been even greater.

Although the 75,000 long term departures was high by historical standards, there have been similar levels of outflows of NZ citizens un the past.

In 2011, when National was in power, 71,187 NZ citizens left the country long term, followed by another 70,697 in 2012.

So high levels of emigration appear to occur regardless of which party is in power. And there's probably not much that the government can do to influence that.

Young New Zealanders have been travelling overseas to work in Australia and the UK for decades, although many also return after a few years.

Last year almost 28,000 NZ citizens returned after an extended stay overseas. And in 2019, before Covid affected travel patterns, 41,000 returned home after an extended absence.

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