Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.
NO SURPLUS UNTIL 2028?
The Budget Policy Statement forecasts are out. Finance Minister Nicola Willis faces surplus slipping beyond 2028 as economic forecast worsens. But she is still committed to tax cuts.
SUPER FUND GETS NEW SUPREMO
Highly experienced Australian investment industry executive Jo Townsend is set to take the reins of NZ's $70 billion Super Fund from next month
COWS GET BIRD FLU (IN THE US)
A late item to this morning's briefing is probably worth noting. Parts of the US cattle herd has a problem with a Bird Flu infection. It may also affect milk production in some regions.
FACING A PROFITABILITY CRUNCH
Meanwhile, the latest detailed analysis by DairyNZ shows farmers in that sector earning well in excess of breakeven levels this year, but they are likely to be cutting it fine next year as inflation bites from one end, and milk prices ease at the other.
NOT COMMITTEES
Two new "advisory groups" are to be established, both chaired by Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, and will advise the Government on how the Science, and the University sectors can each play a greater role in lifting productivity and economic growth. Gluckman is the coordinator of the separate strands.
MORE NZGBs INTO HIGH DEMAND
Tomorrow there is another NZGB tender of $500 mln, in tow tranches; a $275 mln five year maturity and a $225 mln ten year maturity. Analysts expect them to be enthusiastically received.
MINOR PROGRESS
In Australia, their Monthly Inflation Indicator rose 3.4% from a year ago in February. This is the same increase they reported in December and January. Their core rate fell to 3.9% in February, down from 4.1% in January. Like everyone, they are finding it hard to wring out the last elements of excessive inflation. New Zealand's March quarter CPI rate will be released on Wednesday, April 17, 2024. In Q4-2023 it ran at 4.7%.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed today. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.64%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.02%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps from this morning at 4.68% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.63% and up +1 bp. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 4.23%. Their 2yr is now at 4.59%, so the curve is now inverted more, now by -36 bps.
EQUITIES EASE AGAIN LOCALLY
Wall Street ended its Tuesday session down -0.3% as it fell away at its close earlier today. Tokyo has opened up +0.6%. Hong Kong is down -0.4% at its open and Shanghai is down -0.5%. Singapore has opened up +0.7%. Meanwhile, the ASX200 is up +0.3% in early afternoon trading. The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late trade.
OIL PRICES SOFTISH
Oil prices have slipped -US$1 today to US$81/bbl while the international Brent price is now at US$85/bbl. Both have been in a narrow range for days now.
GOLD SLIGHTLY FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$5 from this time yesterday, now at US$2178/oz.
NZD HOLDS SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is back to where it was this time yesterday at 60 USc. Against the Aussie we have stayed down at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 55.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 has remained at just under 69.2.
BITCOIN RISES AGAIN
The bitcoin price has firmed since this time yesterday, now at US$70,680 and up +1.3%. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.6%.
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94 Comments
both chaired by Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, and will advise the Government on how the Science, and the University sectors can each play a greater role in lifting productivity and economic growth. Gluckman is the coordinator of the separate strands.
Pity it wasn't a REAL scientist. And I challenge Gluckman head-on ;
1 - productivity is really energy-efficiencies, and we're up against the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics. How say you, Sir Peter?
2 - Economic growth is not disentangle-able from physical resource extraction/consumption/excretion. There are limits to physical growth, and exponential growth will hit one or more of those limits, exponentially quickly. How say you, Sir Peter?
This is a fellow who comes from a profession which adds to the problem (adding to population). They have yet to address that dilemma (Hippocratic Oath vs ecological overshoot), yet one of them is put in charge of?
Excellent.
Goes with the nonsense about Callahan - always in it for the money - being told to only follow the money. I will be doing what the NZ media SHOULD be doing, and holding Sir Peter to account. On behalf of my grandchildren. This could be interesting, even if not interest-supporting.....
Sir Peter Gluckman will point out to the government - as he has to previous governments - that countries that invest roughly double what we do in scientific research get an incubator effect from that which delivers disproportionate benefit. Edit: just to clarify, it's an excellent suggestion that should have been taken up more in the past too.
Notwithstanding resource constraints and limits to growth, this still seems better than spending instead on giving property speculators' and MPs/PMs' investment portfolios a taxpayer-supported free ride.
It will naturally be duly ignored in favour of prioritising folks' and mates' speculation.
Peter Gluckman is a real scientist specialising in evolutionary biology with many hundreds of publications, and definitely very illustrious. Of course that does not necessarily mean that all of his ideas on R&D and universities are good ones. But he is both illustrious and experienced.
KeithW
Keith - sometimes people have to stand up and say it like it is. That is even more true, when they have a degree of mana, of social capital.
I have yet to see Sir Peter address the overshoot issue, or the Limits to Growth. He did a reasonable job re Climate (and had, as the prior poster points out, no impact) but the knock-on physics of that, were never addressed.
As I said, I'm going to hold him to account. Do the job the MSM have NOT done so far. Let's do the real math; how many can we feed, ex depletion/degradation, and ex fossil energy? What level of extraction/consumption/depletion can be maintained, and for how long?
Targeting 'economic growth' at this late stage in the human irruption, is something I would expect a scientist to reject being involved with, out of hand.
Going to be interesting; there are a cohort of NZ scientists in the degrowth/overshoot space now; no doubt there will be a concerted effort to smother them, but the truth tends to out...
As Bitcoin BTCUSD toes around the $70,000 price mark, there’s speculation that short-sellers are feeling the pressure due to diminishing downtrends and quicker-moving uptrends, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price to $80,000, according to an analyst.
So if you're suggesting a massive short squeeze, then I wouldn't discount that. Kobeissi Letter points out the gap between institutional longs and hedge fund shorts is at a record high - the hedgies having approx 15,000 in net short contracts and institutions with approx 20,000 in net longs. A tug of war. Longs not giving up and each time ratty hits a new record high, we get widespread short covering.
If I were short, I'd be damn nervous. Dips getting smaller while rallies lasting longer and moving quicker. Classic short squeeze action.
I recently saw a job advertisement for an investment analyst at the Super Fund - job was to analyse international companies not NZ ones. One of the mandatory job requirements was speaking Maori (or "being on the pathway of learning Maori").
Explain to me how that helps in the analysis of Apple or Microsoft stock? And how does that enable the recruitment of the best investment people from within NZ, Australia or overseas? When you reduce your hiring pool to a mere 4% of the local population (and 0% of the rest of the global population) how is your organisation going to be successful long term? What is the quality of the investment decisions going to be if you keep making diversity hires instead of hiring based on skills, qualifications and experience?
In that case wouldn't speaking any second language help with thinking outside the square?
FWIW I think there are some jobs/departments where it would make more sense than others to at least encourage staff to have some knowledge and capability of Te Reo. And I fully support things like teaching kids from a young age at least the fundamentals, as language learning is great for development and it makes perfect sense to teach one of the languages of the land, so to speak. I think you can support the language/culture aspects while having reservations about some issues such as co-governance.
But to OP's point what does a knowledge of Te Reo specifically have to do with analysing investment opportunities outside of NZ?
The requirement to speak another language could be useful, as it would then enable you to analyse German, French, Japanese or Chinese companies listed on overseas markets. But the job ad made no mention of speaking European or Asian languages - and if it had done so, then the pool of potential employees would have expanded exponentially.
Sadly, this is the way Govt Depts and Quangos are being run these days. Perhaps the new CEO will be able to correct course. But until then they are being staffed with low quality hires plucked from a tiny hiring pool. And this is an organisation that the country is relying upon to meet its citizens retirement commitments. Now extrapolate that to the Health, Education, Justice organisations and you come to realise why the country is in such a mess despite the spending of hundreds of billions of dollars. Its being run by idiots, everywhere.
But the job ad made no mention of speaking European or Asian languages - and if it had done so, then the pool of potential employees would have expanded exponentially.
I've seen MBIE people who claim to be fluent in Mandarin. They're not. They may have done formal language study, but it takes much more than that to be considered fluent.
With that same reasoning. Let's pretend Boeing has had real problems with manufacturing ( cough cough). This has lead to defects in planes and loss of life. The answer for this is to be more diverse in their way of thinking. The solution is to get Bilingual speakers or you get a team with exceptional Quality assurance and testing experience regardless of being bilingual.
My FiL and his brother both have public service jobs (both fairly senior). They are the whitest guys out, but every family get together insist on absolutely butchering the 'Karakia Kai'/pre-meal prayer and shoehorning Te Reo into every FB family group chat message (usually incorrectly, if my wife is to be believed who actually has a decent level of competence).
They like to one-up each other at each subsequent family event, trying to be more and more culturally aware despite the fact that there are alien lifeforms with better Te Reo pronunciation and cultural nuance than either. I actually find it offensive, as they do such a poor job so consistently that it comes across as some form of parody, but they are being deadly serious as I guess that's what they do in the workplace all day long.
This year we have a problem though. One of my wife's siblings has a new boyfriend, and he's actually Maori. He's coming to meet the family for the first time, and there have been whispers of him receiving a 'special welcome'. She has been so worried that her dad and unc will try and compete with each other to show their bona fides (he's a shy guy, and has said to her he doesn't like the spotlight on him) that she's had to write to them both saying under no circumstances are they to treat the extended family Easter dinner as they would a public service get-together.
What this means, of course, is the whole family - or should I say whanau - will somehow wind up belting out waiata and doing (I say that generously) our mihis at this poor chap like there's no tomorrow.
Wow! This is so made up its not even funny. I live in a bicultural household (have done for 35 years). Its not hard folk, its just about embracing differences. We eat the same we talk the same... we just don't get hung up on the racist bullshit I'm seeing from 50% of this site.
I wish I was making it up. I'm not. Short of covertly recording the next family get together this weekend and posting it online for all to see, you'll not believe me of course, but not a word of that story is a lie. If anything, I'm understating the absurdity of it all.
Even my own wedding, my FiL couldn't resist doing the first part of his already very long speech in Te Reo, poorly of course (how many wedding speeches have you listened to that have a toilet break in them?)
I have no issue whatsoever with people using their own language and practicing their culture, if it actually is your language/culture. I have no issue with a genuine eagerness to properly learn another language or culture. As I mentioned in a comment above, I think all children in NZ should learn Te Reo from day dot (I know my toddler is at preschool) as at the bare minimum it is great for your mental development, and why not do it with one of the official languages of the land.
But when you're clearly shoehorning it in for some cultural kudos/brownie points, in contexts and with audiences where it makes no sense and has no relevance, and doing it poorly (so you obviously don't care enough to learn it well, but care enough to be seen to be doing the right thing) I take issue.
I'm borderline fluent in French (having studied it all the way from high school, to university and beyond) but I don't force the family when they come to mine to sing La Marseillaise just to show off.
Possibly to assist the new white Australian female CEO around tikanga?
They already have gender quota's and are about as diverse as a block of Milky bar chocolate, yet here you are whining about them wanting to bring (almost certainly) a young Maori graduate onboard?
Ok Grattaway, can you explain to me how Nicola Willis was appointed MInister of Finance because she has no finance experience whatsoever and is clearly so out of her depth that it's both embarrassing and becoming an operational issue for the nation?
So what if the Super Fund want a Te Reo speaker, no doubt a valuable resource in all manner of engagements with iwi up and down the country.
If we can have a gender quota, why not an indigenous quota? There are loads of Maori finance grads as well in case you were wondering.
If you are thinking qualifications then the problem is precedence. When last did NZ have a finance minister actually educated and versed in finance. Bill English I would think, and then who and as well, who then before him? Cripes, for a while National even had Goldsmith in the shadow portfolio who demonstrated an unfortunate deficiency in basic arithmetic on occasions.
The job was INTERNATIONAL not wandering up and down the country pressing noses together. If the CEO wants a cultural guide, they presumably have a HR/DEI department for that. This was a job that requires a high degree of intellect and experience, as there is $73 Billion at stake and 80+% of it is invested internationally.
If they wanted a Maori speaker for domestic investments, then maybe possibly acceptable, considering all the woke ESG rubbish NZ companies now have to comply with. But as I said this job was for INTERNATIONAL companies - so the analyst would be tripping around overseas looking at companies in China, Japan, Europe, USA etc.
Post the job ad then. To the best of my knowledge the Fund really only invests via managers and analysts don't "trip" around the world investing money anyway you numpty.
You say "high degree of intellect like that isn't compatible with being Maori. I'd have higher iq, eq and be wealthier than you KW, but that probably isn't much of an achievement.
There’s a few Labour fanboys and fan girls that comment on this website. You will know that I have been a strong critic of the previous government’s efforts on housing. So read this on the mess of an organisation that Kāinga Ora is:
https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/03/26/debt-stricken-kainga-ora-pauses-big-p…
pretty sad
Mark Todd of Ockham:
”Unfortunately, KO’s performance in house building is the very definition of failure- slow delivery, high cost and poor design”, he says. “The sad thing is NZ could have had twice as many beautiful, well loved state houses right now for the many billions spent, if the expertise of the top 10 house builders had been harnessed directly six years ago”
”What has transpired is a national embarrassment, particularly as many knowledgeable people in the sector have been ringing alarm bells in Wellington for some years”
ahem
Megan Woods….
Bullshit. Did you even read the article to the end?
More than half of those projects were in trouble because of public opposition to social housing. Something Ockham doesn't really need to deal with. The rest were reassessed after cost escalation which has affected the whole industry and led to a significant number of private developers going bust.
Social housing has different requirements than private developments. My colleague who is an architect went to check out the new Ockham building. She said it was OK, nice exterior, apartments were functional very small but wouldn't meet social housing requirements.
I am going to call you out. You are full of it, and it’s getting annoying. And often really misinformed. And wokesters like you are ultimately the enemy of the poor. Rambling on about urban design this, walkability that, light rail blah blah. While people live in overcrowded conditions or cars.
It’s only a little bit about public opposition. The article doesn’t highlight the many big projects that have stopped dead in their tracks because of cost and time blowouts. Just one example - a big apartment for elder housing in central Manukau that got consent MORE THAN 18 MONTHS AGO.
There are many more like this.
Nothing at all to do with public opposition. Everything to do with incompetence.
Do you actually know who Mark Todd is? Old school centre-left and the guy who has done more for good higher density living in Auckland than anyone else.
So you think he’s full of bullshit too? You must do, because what he’s saying is what I am saying, and have been saying for years (note his comment about people banging on for years to the clueless bureaucrats in Wellington)
Wow
We really are f##%ed
You seem to be pointing out all the things they have got right! The state housing near us is fantastic in terms of walkability, kids are playing in the streets without fear of being run over, they have a great park that used to be crap, it’s nothing like the traditional state housing sh!t hole which is definitely not what we need more of. The extra cost will be forgotten soon enough, well worth the investment. I’d prefer they sold the lot and went private, but if the state is going to do it they need to do it well.
Oooh triggered. I like how you project your imagined persona of me.
If wanting kids to be able to walk to school is woke I'm fully in.
But yes, I do know Mark Todd. I like his developments and I like what he's doing for promotion of urban density and walkability and urban design (you know the thing you just called woke).
But it doesn't mean he understands anything about social housing and it doesn't mean he knows anything about working for a government agency. Private sector approach doesn't work for the public sector, that is why there is a public sector because the private sector can't do it. We're seeing what private sector thinking does to the public sector with Luxon at the helm. It's not going to be pretty.
And that’s a big part of the problem. KO requirements and specs are way over the top. Way above what the market typically expects or accepts. So is there any wonder they have blow outs? So then nothing gets built, when something 75% as good might of. And so the crisis of people living in crowded, old and unhealthy homes gets perpetuated
Maybe their specs are higher because they are catering to the segment of the market that the private sector isn't interested in?
They also have broader objectives than just making a profit, whether they should or shouldn't is up for debate but the fact is you have to assess their performance based on the objectives they are given and the constraints they operate under which are very very different to developing for profit.
No, I work for the private sector. Never worked for Kainga Ora but I follow what they do. I have worked in central and local government.
I defend civil servants and council staff because I've seen how hard it is for them to keep up their morale when they are incessantly slagged off by people who think govt and council should be run like a business. I want the people who serve us to be the best and brightest and slagging them off as easy targets achieves nothing. I defend politicians for the same reasons.
I try to criticise the govt ministers for their actions or policies.
Like I said before KH, give me something to praise the government for and I will. So far I can't think of a single thing, the closest is the ECE payment but unfortunately while the idea is good in principle but terrible in execution.
A huge organisation with a huge budget. Disgusting. Full of woke urban designers, planners, policy analysts and sustainability specialists, going around in circles on design. And then as Mark T says, the design is often not very good anyway.
quite disgusting with a profound housing crisis
I agree, the state shouldn't own any houses. They have been predictably bad - firstly with leaving crap houses on large sections near central Auckland for decades, then spending way too much money replacing them. They should sell the lot of them and flood the market with houses and land.
They did quite a good job of creating a bunch of supply in the past to help make housing affordable for today's older generations, though. That included in growing companies the likes of Keith Hay Homes etc.
A mix of law changes and direct build is probably useful. Interesting that Singapore fosters productive enterprise well by dealing effectively with housing as a problem - including via a huge supply of public housing - rather than incentivising speculation at the expense of productive business investment as we do here.
Like building homes in the most expensive parts of town, when they could have sold the land for millions and built for free in a cheaper area. But no, Labour thinks gang members deserve to live in million dollar houses in the best part of town.
Presumably because these people never intend to ever get a job. Because if you wanted to encourage beneficiaries to get jobs, you would build public housing in areas where there are lots of jobs for people with low skill levels - like Hornby, Islington, or Sockburn in the case of Christchurch.. Not Fendalton, Merivale and Strowan.
Nothing wrong with spreading state housing through various areas. Much better than having Projects. Could be a future John Key or Paula Benefit in on of those houses.
People seem to be fine with wealthier folk getting all manner of undeserved handouts yet get unreasonably angry about state housing also helping today's younger generations like it helped today's older generations have affordable housing. Meanwhile, still expecting a benefit in their old age regardless of need.
Pretty sad alright. But the link posted, currently bottom in the comments section of the article you posted House Mouse, to my mind, contained some really good thoughts, as well as the comments contained therein ..... for example
- "We need a public housing system that provides housing for all (housing register and not). This would dramatically shift the housing pressures in the country in terms of reasonable rental pricing and security of tenure and those who are not in need of a social house per se would be putting money that would go to private landlords otherwise back into the housing system,”Central Auckland homeowner.
- “Housing [should] be recognised as a human right, and we would listen to the voices of lived experience to design the right future – so probably not me, to be fair. But I am better off living in a community where people are safely housed and free to turn their talents and energies to better things than just survival.” Kirikiriroa homeowner"
Although National do Not believe in public ownership of housing at all (so why was Bill English appointed to review Kainga Ora's finances and operations?). Under the JK/Bill English Government they sold off a lot of state housing in particular state houses sitting on high value land .... so maybe that's what's about to happen again with the return going back into Government coffers. Wouldn't be surprised at all.
Just over 6 months from the election, a democratic change of government happened by the electorate’s voting. And accordingly the hot & hostile wind has switched from the direction of right to left, to left to right. Or east to west or vice versa depending on whether you are facing north or south. Be that as it may and whatever the direction, it is now simply the same sort of wind blowing just as before, and well beyond a cure of a simple dose of bicarbonate of soda it would appear. I voted for MMP with a thought that it would reduce and ease out the traditional partisanship that had dominated NZ politics but now I think it has exacerbated that situation in that it has been propelled beyond just the two old main parties and it has precipitated an increasingly deep divide between left and right.
Oh well, if someone is opposed to evangelicals strip mining the country, while the entitled few pocket a quick buck?
6 years of being tortured with the mind numbing chorus, "worst government ever"? I'd say expect something back. This mob are so far out of touch with reality, the speed we're promised in going backwards guarantees whiplash. Personally, I'm waiting till they do something before I stick my size 12s in......waiting, waiting.....
Yup and adding $80/wk to the average public transport cost for a family with 2 kids.
there goes the $2.15/wk tax cut.
thats before getting into the increased car rego fees, soon to be increased ACC levies, increased petrol prices with the falling NZD/USD and the upcoming RUC for all vehicles.
National have not been good economic managers for several iterations and the media myth that they are continually gets perpetuated despite all rational and credible evidence that is solidly to the contrary.
Maccy B on the crazy migration circus in Aussie again,
The fact remains that the Albanese government has jumped the shark on immigration, and the mainstream media can no longer ignore the policy idiocy.
A tipping point has been reached whereby Australians find migration policy unconscionable amid an unprecedented rental crisis.
Nearly everybody knows somebody impacted by the rental crisis, and it is making their blood boil.
Nobody voted for a Big Australia and nearly every opinion poll shows that the majority of Australians are opposed.
It is time for our political class to take notice.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/03/australias-population-ponzi-sc…
Another trophy office tower - the 777 Tower - in downtown Los Angeles is being sold at a massive 'discount'.
The skyscraper is being sold for $145 million - 50% below the building's debt.
The seller - Brookfeld Asset Management - had an outstanding loan balance of $319 million last yr which they defaulted on.
The buyer is a South Korea investment firm.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/brookfield-s-default…
I’ll take you LA trophy tower at 50% of debt and raise you a Chicago tower at 33% of debt.
https://x.com/triplenetinvest/status/1767898088956682697?s=46&t=tN4uFnr…
Never would I have thought this would be possible… especially with in a so called higher learning environment…
My initial reaction to this is wtf? But then given the racist vitriol against Maori and Pacifica I see on this site maybe a safe space is warranted?
I suspect this is just Act and NZ First stoking the culture war to distract from the real failures we're seeing with the current govt.
Has anyone asked the students how the feel about this?
I would hazard a guess that no-one gives a shit except the future wannabe politicians who are trying to make a name for themselves on campus.
Absolute rubbish, my community is exceptional diverse. No one needs safe spaces. It's made up nonsense.All it does is create a further divide. In the end the so called non minority will think, "screw it we will study elsewhere, we won't invite the minority due to having to tip toe around. So why bother?
That's your problem right there: why should anyone ask how the students feel about it, they're there to learn...including how to cope out in the real world where their academic theories, racist bias & ivory tower opinions will be challenged daily by the taxpayers paying for a large share of their education
They should ask the students because it's the students who are impacted, either the ones that feel like they need the safe space or the ones that might be offended/slighted that they aren't allowed in the space.
Like I said before, this feels like it's just Act and NZ First stoking culture wars.
I'll bet that until this was raised by Act there was not a real issue. It's distraction and outrage politics to try to create division where there is none. I suggest that unless you're a student you keep the f**k out of it and focus on holding the government to account on increasing housing affordability which is probably the biggest hurdle facing students.
Ah you’re ok with an institution segregating areas based on race and yet you try to turn the mirror on those calling such behaviour out….says it all doesn’t - you reap what we sow….your world is hypocritical delusional and scripted like that of the rise of national socialism… my advice to you is to read some history
No, like I said before my initial reaction was wtf? But the fact that the first I've heard about this is from an ACT politician not students leads the cynic in me to suspect ulterior motives for raising this issue.
Anyway just talking about this plays into ACT and NZ First hands. It's a nothing issue aimed to distract. I'll leave it there.
In principle I disagree with the idea of segregated spaces but I am a big white dude so not really the target of discrimination and have very little lived experience of being discriminated against.
If this space helps them better succeed at their studies and doesn't really impact other students (I'm assuming there are spaces for non-maori and Pacifica to hang out) then I don't see it being a big deal. I'm not worried that they are using the space for a nefarious plot to wipe out non-maori/Pacifica people.
If it was a big white dude only space then I would have a problem with it.
I know from a pure logic point of view that might not seem to make sense and can't competently argue why it feels right to me but there it is.
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