Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ASB followed ANZ with some matching rate cuts for 6 and 12 month fixed home loans. 4 years too. More here. The Bank of China trimmed rates as well, one to a market-leading level. And the Co-operative Bank also took -10 bps from its 1 year fixed rate.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB made matching -10 bps rate cuts to its 6 and 9 month TD rates.
UNEXPECTED HIGHER PRICES
At the latest dairy auction, prices rose in a shift that wasn't signaled by the derivatives markets. Whole milk powder rose +2.4%, Skim Milk Powder rose +0.4%, Cheddar soared +8.0%. Chinese buyers didn’t show up for this event but Middle Eastern buyers did. And the Europeans are picking up more Skim Milk Powder.
GAS SHORTAGE WARNING
The Government has been told the supply of natural gas is getting worse.
ELECTRICITY PRICE SIGNAL
A confluence of short-term reasons caused an unusual spike in wholesale electricity prices this morning at dawn. Prices nationwide jumped to 20 times their usual levels. But by 10:30am, things had reverted to the usual recent levels.
SURVEY RESULTS
During March we asked readers to complete our 2024 car insurance survey. 562 readers completed it and it reflects a broad distribution match with provinces and car ownership. Thank you. We analysed the results in April, and have now started releasing some of the results. The first report sets the scene of who responded, and overall levels of satisfaction by policyholders. More insights will follow.
MONETARY POLICY LOOSENING SOME WAY OFF YET
The OCR has now been at 5.50% for one full year, and counting. But a realignment is public policy is underway (new Government) at the same time the RBNZ is pressing to get inflation back under control. Our review suggests that things will stay tough for all of 2024, but then improve back to something that looks like 'normal' when that is achieved and monetary policy is loosened again.
UPPING THE AI ANTE
In some startling improvements, Apple has launched the new M4 chip product range today that touts the speed and capacity to deliver amazing AI benefits at desktop and iPad levels. And their new iPad will incorporate the M4 chip. Working with AI, it will be amazing what it can deliver.
"MORE LUNCHES, LOWER COST"
The Government is revising the school lunch program for students who can't/don't come to school properly fed. They claim it will cover more students and cost less, but there will be no actual changes (other than more pupils involved) for primary schools. Its opponents are focusing on the "costs less" aspects, claiming nutrition levels standards will be lower. But those actual menu decisions will be made at the school level, responding to local needs.
INNOVATION NEEDED
After two questionable successive censuses and a failed skipped one in between, Stats NZ is now seems resolved to change its approach. Administrative data - already collected by government agencies - is 'the future for census', they say. Traditional census collection models with a large-scale field workforce 'are becoming unsustainable'. Specifically they seem unable to cover minority populations to the level needed.
LOCAL BOY MAKES GOOD
In case you missed this late entry in yesterday's review, here it is again: We should also note that Wayve, a start-up British AI company specialising in self-driving technology, has just won a US$1 bln early stage investment from Japan's Softbank. This is after others like Elon Musk have seeded US$200 mln or so. Why is this noted here? Well it was started by a Christchurch Kiwi out of the University of Canterbury, then to Cambridge, England. Alex Kendall is co-founder and CEO, now in the big-time.
NEW INDUSTRIAL POLICY
Australia is pushing ahead with its new industrial policy, a big-ticket initiative. Now they have confirmed this will involve tax breaks for investors to support the "Future Made in Australia" program. New Zealand might struggle to stay up with the scale of the official Aussie largesse.
SWAP RATES STABLE
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed at the short end but lower at the long end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.63%, a level it has hovered around for more than 70 days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -11 bps from yesterday following the RBA guidance, now at 4.32%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -8 bps at 2.23%, a massive drop for them and a new all-time record low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down another -8 bps to 4.70% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.67% and down -5 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps from yesterday's close at 4.47%. Their 2yr is now at 4.84%, so the curve is deeper at -37 bps inverted.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 and the ASX200 are heading for a day where their indexes change very little. Tokyo has opened down -1.1% however. Hong Kong has opened up +0.4%. Shanghai is down -0.3% at its open. Singapore is down -0.7% at its open. Wall Street closed its Tuesday session up a minor +0.1% on the S&P500.
OIL LOWER
The oil price is -US$1 lower today from this time yesterday, at just over US$77.50/bbl in the US, while now just over US$82.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$14 from this time yesterday, now just on US$2307/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has slipped -20 bps from this time yesterday to 59.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are nearly +½c firmer at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 55.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still about 69.3, and little-changed.
BITCOIN STABLE
The bitcoin price has slipped to US$62,689 and -1.6% lower than this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.8%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.