A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, job ads soft, carbon price sinks, credit card billings weak, swaps firmish, NZD softish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None here today,

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.

ADS SLUMP, APPLICATIONS SOAR
Job ad numbers were down -30% in April from February as applications soared in the month, almost doubling.

DECLINE INTENSIFYING
Residential construction in Auckland will start a steady decline next summer, likely by more than -25% over the next two years.

SLOPPY CHECKING
A proposed $4.2 mln settlement has been reached between the regulator, Department of Internal Affairs, and SkyCity Casino over the civil proceedings against SkyCity for breaching its Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) obligations. This is a penalty (pending the Court's agreement) for important procedural breaches. DIA is not alleging there was evidence to suggest that SkyCity was directly involved in money laundering or the financing of terrorism..

CARBON PRICE SLUMPS
The price of a NZU (one tonne of carbon equivalent) has slumped to $47/tonne, its lowest in more than a year. And recall it hit $87/NZU in late 2022.

A BORING SEGMENT
Amounts billed to credit cards were weak in April, down -0.6% from a year ago and down a rather more concerning -2.0% from March. That is because these changes are not inflation-adjusted. Balances outstanding on credit cards were little-changed in April from a year-ago, also reinforcing the inflation sag. All this suggests pressures on consumers, but in fact the proportion of these balances that incur interest is low and little-changed, and stable compared to the same month a year ago.

PROBLEMS AHEAD?
The Tiwai Point aluminium smelter near Bluff is at risk. It imports alumina and processes it into primary aluminium from refineries in Queensland and the Northern Territory. But gas shortages at those refineries are causing shutdowns and Rio Tinto has reportedly declared force majeure on its supply contracts. Turning off smelting pots can be a very costly exercise. It all hinges on whether NZAS (a Rio-Sumitomo joint venture) is considered an in-house customer or a third-party customer.) Around 90% of the aluminium produced at Tiwai Point is exported, mainly to Japan.

FAT GAINS
In Australia, the expanding labour force (up +2.5% in March from the same month in 2023) is behind a +7.1% rise in total labour compensation in March 2024 from the same month in 2023. That means in April 2024, total wage and salary compensation will have pushed on up above AU$100 bln in the calendar month.

SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be firmer today but not by much. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.61%, a level it has hovered around for more than 70+ days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps to 4.31%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 2.33% and little-changed. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps to 4.70% from this time yesterday and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.64% and up +2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged from yesterday at 4.45%. Their 2yr is now at 4.85%, so the curve has shifted in marginally to -40 bps inverted.

EQUITY MARKETS SOFTEN
The NZX50 is ending today down -0.5%. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.2% in late morning trade. Hong Hong has slumped -2.1% and Shanghai is down -0.3% in opening trade today, all on the realisation that the Chinese property rescue effort is probably not going to achieve anything meaningful. Singapore is unchanged. Wall Street ended its Monday session little changed, after some good intra-day gains that weren't held.

OIL SLIGHTLY SOFTER
The oil price is -US$1 lower from this time yesterday, now just under US$79/bbl in the US, while now also now at just on US$83/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD FALLS
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen -US$16 from where were yesterday, now at US$2416/oz and off its record high. Silver has retreated too.

NZD EASES BACK
The Kiwi dollar has fallen back -40 bps to 60.9 USc today. Against the Aussie we are slightly firmer at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are -30 bps softer at 56.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now down under 70 again..

BITCOIN JUMPS
The bitcoin price has risen to US$71,149 and a very sharp +6.8% jump from this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 4.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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