Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None here again today,
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.
HAWKISH SURPRISE
As expected, the RBNZ kept its OCR unchanged at 5.5%. While it acknowledged inflation is falling, as demand eases, it says the restrictive stance needs to stay to get more progress. It's forecasts also show an increased chance of a hike, rather than a cut. It also said: "Our economic projections include only officially available information on the Government’s fiscal intentions to date, which includes the most recent fiscal update and ‘mini budget’. The signalled lower government spending is currently and expected to continue contributing to weaker aggregate demand. Any impact of potential changes in the forthcoming Budget to government spending, or private spending due to tax cuts, remain to be assessed."
NO MORE FIRST HOME GRANTS
In a pre-Budget announcement, the Government scrapped the First Home grant. Kāinga Ora will not accept any new applications for the First Home Grant which will not be funded in Budget 2024.
SETTLING IN AT A HIGH LEVEL
A total of 13,410 people arrived here on work visas during April, back to pre-pandemic levels.
EARLY WITHDRAWALS RISE
KiwiSaver early withdrawals for home ownership fell in April from a rising trend while financial hardship withdrawals continue to rise from a low level. About $160 mln was withdrawn early from KiwiSaver in the month, just shy of the record set in March.
RISING TREND
Dairy prices rose a further +3.3% in today’s GDT auction. All products rose. Westpac said the extending rising trend is bringing upside risk to their 2024/25 milk price forecast of $8.40/kgMS..
BIRD FLU GETS CLOSER
Bird flu (avian influenza) is now in Australia (Victoria). This is likely to be the start of a significant biosecurity event for them.
A DISTRUPTERS FIRST STEP
In technology news, SpaceX's Starlink division has demonstrated video calls via their satellite network to unmodified mobile phones. But at this time the quality is not high.
FOR DATA WONKS
The now-disbanded Productivity Commission online resources have been transferred to the Treasury website. You can find them here.
NOT WANTING TO WORK ON
Some Australian survey data shows that most 45 year old Aussie plan to retire soon after they reach 65. That is unchanged since 2018/19. There are now 4.2 mln retirees in Australia. Given their workforce is 14.3 mln, that means there are 3.4 workers per retiree.
JAPAN DATA STRONG
Japan's machinery orders rose +2.9% in March from February, slowing from the +7.7% m/m gain in February but way better than market expectations which assumed a March correction was likely of -2.2%. Year-on-year March was up +11%. Their forecasts suggest the high levels of orders will be maintained in the coming three months. Of note is that orders for very large constructions (not included above) are running very strongly at present.
SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be much firmer today on the surprisingly hawkish RBNZ MPS. Maybe up to a +10 bps rise? Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.61% (before the MPS), a level it has hovered around for more than 70+ days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps to 4.29%. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 2.33% and unchanged. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps to 4.73% from this time yesterday and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.64% and unchanged from yesterday (also before the MPS). The UST 10yr yield is down -3 from yesterday at 4.42%. Their 2yr is now at 4.84%, so the curve has shifted in marginally to -42 bps inverted.
EQUITY MARKETS MIXED
The NZX50 is ending today up +0.5% and looking like it is ignoring the hawkish RBNZ. The ASX200 is little-changed in afternoon trade and giving up some good morning gains. Tokyo is down -0.6% in late morning trade. Hong Hong has bounced back from yesterday's very large fall with a small +0.3% bounce and Shanghai is unchanged in opening trade today. Singapore has opened down -0.2%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session up a modest +0.3%.
OIL SLIGHTLY SOFTER
The oil price is -US$1 lower from this time yesterday, now just under US$79/bbl in the US, while now also now at just on US$83/bbl for the international Brent price.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold has firmed slightly, up +US$7 from where were yesterday, now at US$2423/oz.
NZD JUMPS
The Kiwi dollar has risen nearly +½c to 61.4 USc today, all of it after the RBNZ forecasts were revealed. Against the Aussie we are similarly firmer at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are up at 56.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now up at 70.5.
BITCOIN EASES
The bitcoin price has slipped slightly to US$70,184 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.6%.
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113 Comments
Maccy B ripping things to shreds again. These guys will be persona non grata among the Aussie ruling elite. The water cooler regulars may write them off as a bunch of opinionated sideline critics, but they source Macquarie Bank in this attack.
Australia’s post-2012 experiment with mass immigration has lowered living standards for nearly ALL working people via weak wages, crush-loaded infrastructure, including health, education, and public service. Not to mention a ruined environment.
It has created a permanent foreign underclass of virtual slaves. And a calamitously unfair property oligopoly.
Even a leftie journo is quoted and it's quite savage.
we have decided not to be a nation-building state, but to continue to build the numbers anyway. Were we still a nation-building state, we would not have spent decades transferring money from public to private to create a vast housing bubble. We would be, in a bipartisan spirit, shaking down the mining industry for some real revenue.
With that, we would get out our pathetic underdevelopment, in which urban development has been handed to shonks to carve up our fringes into transportless non-cities, a rail link to an airport has been debated and delayed for three decades, public trade education systems have been destroyed leaving vast skills shortages, and on and on.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/05/macquarie-australia-caught-in-…
All that and more applies to NZ.
Yep. But most people are too afraid to talk about it constructively ('the nail that sticks out gets hammered down' kind of thing). Our local and national politicians and bureaucrats are spineless. Even the Greens who seem little more than a performance.
Ah the Greens. The Party arguing for equal treatment of migrants regardless of income. Mainly, a guaranteed pathway for low-wage migrants to get residency.
It gets worse, they want overstayers and visa rulebreakers treated with respect and granted amnesty.
That's all from their official website and releases.
I can remember when the Greens job was to bang on about the environment. You know, all polar ice gone by 2014. Earth ground to a halt by rubbish piles by 1970. That sort of thing. I can remember when the Political Party run by workers, for workers, the Labour party, was the one that banged on about poor people, and immigrants, and refugees, and stuff like that. I can remember when the National Party's job was to look after Kiwi farmers and other business people, and nobody looked after the foreign owned multinationals. After all, why would they/
It would appear all the political parties have lost their original essence and raison d'etre.
Labour somewhat took a wrong turn in 1984. The Greens have only had representation since 1996 and have taken up many issues that Labour lost sight of. National are closest to retaining their true colours and have simply followed the money.
If the Greens had their way, the only limit to low quality, low wage immigration would be the speed at which the runway at Auckland airport wears down and needs resurfacing.
And, let me guess, the emissions produced in the undertaking of this activity somehow don't count? But heaven forbid you or I want to pop over to Fiji for a quick holiday or something like that.
Let's be real, their combination of post-colonial white guilt that needs assuaging, along with a desire to import a bunch of welfare dependent voters, is really the driver.
The difference being that the Australian media is less timid than NZ which seems incapable of reporting on anything that may, in any way, be taken as offensive. I've taken to watching more Ozzy media of late for this reason as they aren't afraid to ask the hard questions and you hear far less of the drivel empathetic pull-on-the-heartstrings tones in their voices.
Its funny nickel market gives any credence to the New Caledonia uprising, I have sailed around the mine (the water is red).... its self contained including the port and loading.... nothing 300 armed staff could not defend... most of the locals have old cars and shotguns...
did you try to dive on that Pinacle in the middle of the Harbour? gloomy !
https://newcaledonia-diving.com/fundive/fulldaytrips/Prony/PronyUk.html they make it sound like paradise but its CRAP
I learnt that you stay off the roads in NC from 3pm Friday until 6am Sunday...
On the isle of pines all alcohol outlets are closed to locals these hours so they can only drink what they have stockpiled before 6pm Friday...
Everyone thinks the Pacific is a Paradise, whereas in reality is poverty like Africa..
Yes the French will never give up the Nickel ...but its looks likes it copplasing anyhow
As protests heat up, that warning is being borne out as major investors, such as Switzerland's Glencore and France's Euramet, are either pulling out or refusing to invest further.
The government came up with a new plan last year to rescue the sector via up to €200 million in subsidies to reduce energy prices.
sort of but just as in WW2, NC is a very important staging location in the Pacific.... the French will never give up this...
seriously a few tanks and machine guns could have reclaimed any road, its just the racial optics...
the Kanaks are trying to extort $$$, its a dance
was a stretch to imagine that giving more expat French locals a vote was not going to cause a reaction....
You are so far wrong its mind boggling...look up the word independence. The Noumēa Accord, signed by the French government in 1998, promised to increase political power to New Caledonia and the Kanaks over a 20-year transition period. But pro-independence leaders say France has continued to control the territory's military and foreign policy, immigration, police, and currency.
A third referendum took place in 2021 under highly contested conditions in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. That timing was strongly protested by the independence movement, which then called for a boycott. That boycott was massively supported and not just by independentists: the abstention rate was 56 percent. Of those who did vote, 96 percent voted to remain with France.
While the 2021 referendum was technically legal, it has been deemed to be morally and politically flawed, in that the majority of voters, including the majority of indigenous Kanak and independentists, did not participate.
In technology news, SpaceX's Starlink division has demonstrated video calls via their satellite network to unmodified mobile phones.
Pentagon spokesman: Russia launched a low-orbit satellite on May 17 that we estimate is a weapon capable of attacking other satellites. - FRWL reports Link
As an aside, in my 7th form years (around 1985/6) if you where prepared to do a thunderbirds walk from the common room to the tuck shop, at the possible ridicule of the lower classes, there was a free cheese toastie on offer at times.... (this was a tough school... not the likes of kings or grammer)
Again, inflation is going to struggle to get to 2%, yet the RBNZ talking tough is exactly that, talk. By the time more dreadful economic data is released by August, the RB will be forced to look at how much it's destroying the NZ economy and how much pain it's inflicting on the common Kiwi. I can only reiterate, in the medium term Central Banks will be forced to accept to live with higher inflation, wether they like it or not.
I can only reiterate, in the medium term Central Banks will be forced to accept to live with higher inflation, wether they like it or not.
Not necessarily, the RBNZ can bludgeon inflation back to target. It might not be pretty but they can do it, make no mistake. There will be casualties however, but in the long run we will be better off as they preserve the value of the NZ$.
As someone who entered the workforce in the 80s, 5s and 6s are low, not high. I was in Sydney through 90s when there was a period in the 10s that felt like it went on forever. Need to recalibrate a bit - to achieve what has to be done (destroy inflation and kill the ponzi) will mean 7s and 8s
Unemployment is just off all time lows and that's after flooding the country with immigrants. If it gets to 7% briefly then so be it.
It never fails to amaze me how we can be comfortable over-stimulating the economy but when it comes to jamming the adrenaline needle into the heart, we all get a bit squeamish.
"the RB will be forced to look at how much it's destroying the NZ economy "
The RB's actions are TOTALLY dictated by what the Fed does, and the Fed priority is maximising the US's share of whats being served up at any stage at the collective world banquet.
The rules are we only get served based on what goodies we manage to bring to the table.
If times are tough, our share gets rationed by imported inflation. Thats the rules.
Eventually we can expect to be pushed till we break. The RB does not call the shots.
"Central Banks will be forced to accept to live with higher inflation".
Yes - that is the case.
A ever lower standard of living until the fabric of society breaks. That is where continual debasing of currency leads.
It's [RBNZ] forecasts also show an increased chance of a hike, rather than a cut.
Here is what QE looks like. It’s my version of what economists call the “liquidity preference curve.” Increase the quantity of zero-interest hot potatoes as a share of GDP, and investors respond by chasing yield in other securities. Treasury bills are the closest substitutes, so their yields are affected most reliably. Once base money hit the unprecedented level of 16% of GDP back in 2011, not a dollar more was actually needed in order to hold short-term interest rates at zero. Every additional dollar of QE simply ensured that the speculative reach for yield would become broader.
Probably needless to say, the only way that the Fed will be able to raise interest rates above zero, for the foreseeable future, will be to explicitly pay interest to banks. At the point that rate goes above the yield to maturity at which the Fed purchased these bonds, the Fed will have crossed into fiscal policy – creating base money without a corresponding asset.
Agreed. Even a National Party that meets all the caliber and expertise they claim to possess would still struggle to make it past one term, purely on the economic mess they've been handed.
Maybe they're aware of it, and that's why they're doubling down on their donor's wishes and to hell with everyone else.
by ChrisOfNoFame Hide All | 22nd May 24, 4:48pm 1716353325
The National, Act, NZF government is burnt toast. A one term government
And who would replace them ??? the bunch who got us into this mess ???
The previous bunch DID NOT GET US INTO THIS MESS.
I'm compensating for apparent deafness.
Both 'blocks' were on a hiding-to-nothing; both promised endless GROWTH.
From here on, anyone who does, will be booted out because they haven't - by ignorant folk, kept ignorant by a media which should have done better.
I've said this before, but I would struggle to pin the blame solely on either one of the major parties.
Even with how bad the previous government has been, the place we are now is the result of decades of mismanagement rather than the direct result of recent government decisions. Short-term thinking has dominated discourse for the last couple of decades and we are now reaping what we have sown there in regard to the results.
Can you give me a single example of a developed country today that is better off than it was 5 years ago? Our health system hasn't buckled because of this government but because of mismanagement for the last 20 years or so. All of our problems have been building up for 10+ years now, it's just now that we are actually starting to really feel the negative effects of these choices.
Neither of the parties is currently offering anything substantive that will get us out of this mess and stop it from happening again. We need proper leadership and our political class seems to be failing us on both sides of the aisle for the time being.
Hopefully, some better leadership comes out in the next couple years to the election but for now its looking pretty bleak no matter what happens.
One of the problems is MMP. Parties do not get a majority and have not been able to do what they want to do or what is needed, for the last 29 years. Each government since the inception of MMP has had to pander to whoever they are in coalition with. So, basically nothing has been done. The biggest deterioration we have ever seen has been in the last six years of Labour, particularly the last 3. That was the first majority government under MMP, and, they did in fact have the numbers to do whatever they wanted, and they choose to waste it making things much worse, and dividing the country at the same time. So, I pin that one on them.
The previous bunch DID NOT GET US INTO THIS MESS.
While we understand your viewpoint of energy and the law of thermodynamics, you can't deny that the previous government racked up a LOT more promises for future resources (debt) with nothing to show for it, while the RBNZ took action which allowed and encouraged bank lending for residential mortgages, this exponentially increasing the level of promises on future resources (debt). From your lens, it was silly for them to make so many promises and deliver so little now that these promises need to be paid using said resources which are decreasing and harder to access and extract.
If Labour did indeed get us into this mess (by overspending or whatever) then it should be easy to get out of it (by reducing that spending). National are still yet to find enough savings to pay for a $20 a week tax cut.
If Labour were the problem, then things should rapidly get better under National, right?
they are firing people as fast as labour added them, perhaps they could fire faster?
agree no tax cuts ,but lets keep firing until gov is rightsized to when labour got in
as for the stats saying people do not need to work in the office?
god knows what will happen in the next global war, should we all stay at home?
You are assuming that any government, left or right, blue or red, is capable of managing The Economy.
Evidence would suggest that they are not. What is governments core responsibility and purpose? Nobody seems to know this anymore.
They cannot control inflation, house prices, or markets, yet they get voted in or out for these reasons.
They do not have the depth of awareness of all the various causes and influences. They are at best the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff.
No no no - we need them to be washing the dishes at the cafe on the weekend so we have clean cups for our lattes and plates for our egg bennis.
Actually when I was saving for a home 60 - 80 hours a week was not uncommon otherwise it was impossible to save - not sure its all that much different today if you want to save money but I do accept that house prices remain ridiculously detached from reality and if current interest rate setting drive down house prices then FHB will be the winners -lower prices and higher term rates meantime
If people want a house they need to work for it, end of. Handing out money to buy houses just puts pressure on prices. People need to appreciate what they worked for, not get a hand out to buy the biggest asset many will likely ever own. This 'where is my free house nonsense' needs to end....and it just did.
Aussie is actually harder to buy a house (depending on where you go) as they have that stamp duty that NZer must pay. I think it is 7% or something, unless that is gone. But, I think you are right, the re-balancing is on, not sure whether we will get another 30% cut in house prices, but I suspect there will be a significant fall. Especially in the cookie cutter crap subdivisions. Should be some cheap buying there.
Are you advocating that property investors should also only be able to borrow to acquire a second property by proving that they saved for their second deposit through hard work/labour? So you couldn’t buy a second property using your first home as security, or with money received from inheritance because that wouldn’t involve the work/labour you value so greatly. Now Let’s be consistent jeremyr, with your staunch paper thin values.
The point was that it’s hard for FHBs to buy a limited supply of houses when investors can buy them at a whim. Working hard may not cut it for many, the bar keeps moving, the “ladder” keeps getting pulled up. High interest rates have made it even more difficult, although they may help over time.
It is not that hard. I did it, all my friends did it, all the young people that work with me have or are doing it. Hell some guys less than 35 years old I work with have saved deposits for two houses already. None of us needed hand outs, so what is the issue. The handouts were simply vote buying to cover up a mess that was created by Labour, a highly distorted market created by an incompetent Labour government. So they compensated by giving handouts so as not to lose their precious voters. House prices are coming down, and that downward trend is expected to accelerate, and will further now with higher for longer interest rates, and the handouts gone. I would say FHB would be pretty happy overall. Investors take their own risks, they have equity and banks allow that to be leveraged. No equity, no leverage, that is how the game is played. I'm not an investor in property, it's not my thing. If people want to take the risk, then that is on them. But, we are not talking about that, so I am sure why you would want to introduce it into the conversation. Are you saying that if people cannot have handouts then investors should not be able to leverage their assets ? Strange. On a side note, I wonder how all the bank economists that predicted interest rate cuts and rising house prices are feeling tonight.....oh dear wrong again. It seems to be a pattern.
I do not doubt that you and your mates worked extremely hard to get what you have got, but was there really zero assistance there for all of them? No help with the deposit from their parents or anything like that?
Because my anecdotal experience is the vast majority of FHB's that I personally know got a lot of help from their parents, which is fine as parents should help their kids out. But the bigger issue now is that for someone who doesn't have family who can help them for whatever reason out it's becoming increasingly difficult to ever have a chance without that help unless they are exceptional. If we make it so only exceptional people can succeed that isn't really a great way to build a healthy society and we can see the results of that starting to take place with crime and other anti-social behaviour increasing. If nothing gets done about that and inequality keeps rising nothing good can come from that.
No handouts or assistance that I know of. I do know of several instances where individuals have delayed buying themselves a house to purchase or renovate a house for their parents to live during their retirement...so that would be the reverse. These are people that have arrived in NZ with nothing and no family support, so it appears hard work does pay off.
I think for a while now hard work has become increasingly disassociated from positive results, and that disassociation of effort and reward is making society as a whole a lot more fragile.
FHB's are having to compete with established wealth, which can use untaxed equity to drive up housing prices without having to earn that money through actual work. The effort required to gain $80,000 in equity is minuscule compared to the effort needed to save $80,000 for a deposit through actual working.
Yes....strange how no-one has picked that up. Want to get that $10000 bucks back. Wait a few weeks...that about how fast they are dropping. Remember when everyone was salivating that Auckland house prices were going up 1000 bucks per day....that is in reverse now as you quite rightly say. Now....how many days until that rate cut that will stop the decline...
Yep, but I imagine a lot of people using equity bought property well before the peak, the equity lost in a property bought in the early 2000s is a lot less than one purchased late 2021. At this stage, equity is possibly less of an issue but I'd imagine it's a big part of what helped drive up prices to the insane heights they reached, and it's still a huge advantage over those who have to earn their deposits through working.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. The Crusaders appalling losing streak is some sort of ancient curse being unleashed on those down here in the 03 who want a "world class rugby stadium" but want everybody else to pay for it.
Repent, ye sinners, and realise that the ratepayer is not a bottomless pit lest ye are condemned to an eternity of disastrous rugby scorelines.
He does have a mandate as part of the Coalition that have all agreed a framework, and the country supports that, but some margin. But, speaking of idiots, I did see something about an unemployed Shortland street actor saying he would starve himself to death if the government does not change it's policy on Gaza and stop Rakon operating it's legal business. Maybe that guy (who is an actual idiot), could have a new career as a comedian.
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