Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
TSB has jumped in with a market-low 6.69% one year fixed home loan offer. It cut other rates too. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB also cut their TD rate offers today. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
AUCKLAND HOUSE PRICES FALL -$2000 PER WEEK
Residential property values are 'slowly shrinking across all price brackets in almost every part of Aotearoa', says QV. They say average dwelling values in Auckland are down an average of almost $9000 a month for the last six months.
NATIONAL ASKING PRICES FALL -$2000 EVERY WEEK IN 2024
Average asking price on Trade Me Property are down -$50,000 since start of the year. This is happening while stock levels hit a 10-year high.
BOUNCEBACK, BUT NO PROGRESS
Although ANZ's truckometer metrics lifted in July from June, the light traffic index is virtually unchanged from July 2023, and the heavy truck index is -6.1% lower.
MORE [FOREIGN] DEBT, MORE HOUSEHOLD SOLAR
New Zealand Green Investment Finance (NZGIF) has coordinated a $130 mln debt line from Société Générale, building total funding to $365 mln for medium to long term debt to solar providers. That will grow the residential PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) portfolio, managed by SolarZero, to cover 20,000 households.
MORE IMMIGRANTS, BUT ARRIVING AT A SLOWER PACE
The pace of net migration continues to cool off from last year’s record highs. There was an estimated net inflow of +2700 people in June, compared to an upwardly-revised +3400 in May. This was the smallest monthly inflow since August 2022, and notably lower than the average of around +4000 a month that we saw in the years before the pandemic. That is +73,300 in the year to June. And note the 'positive' revisions.
ASB HIRES NEW CHIEF RISK OFFICER FROM INDONESIAN BANK
ASB has named Andrey Faskheev as its new Chief Risk Officer effective September 16, subject to a Reserve Bank green light. Faskheev is currently Chief Risk Officer at PT Bank Commonwealth in Indonesia. Like ASB, PT Bank Commonwealth was a subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia until it was sold earlier this year to OCBC Indonesia. Faskheev succeeds Amie Nilsson who has become ASB's Chief Operating Officer.
HALVED, BUT STILL FOUR TIMES HIGHER THAN SUSTAINABLE
Wholesale electricity prices may have halved since last week's peak, but they remain four times higher than levels sustainable for most industrial electricity users. Even at these 'half' levels, jobs are at risk. When we wrote this, they were at $450/$500/MWhr and still higher in the South Island than the North.
NEED TO FILE A RETURN?
The IRD released draft guidance to help investors know when they need to file a tax return to include income from their share investing activity.
GOOD GAIN BUT STILL LOWER THAN PRE-PANDEMIC
Overseas visitor arrivals totaled 3.2 mln in the June year, up +676,000 or +27% from the low June 2023 year. The rise was mostly driven by China, the United States, and Australia. Despite the increase, these visitor arrivals this year were -17% lower than the record for a June year of 3.9 mln in 2019. Infometrics notes Queenstown Airport arrivals remain strong at 123% of pre-pandemic levels, as people from Australia are still heading to the slopes this winter. Auckland and Christchurch arrivals are both at 84% of pre-pandemic levels, while Wellington trails behind at 72% of pre-pandemic levels.
WANT TO BE SCARED?
Check this out. It is not new, but it is still a surprise to most people.
DAIRY PRICE TRENDS
There is a diary Pulse auction event tonight and the derivatives market suggests that the +2.4% bounce that WMP got at the last full auction is likely to get wound back. But the smaller SMP price gains are likely to continue.
EYES ON THE RBNZ
Join us tomorrow for full coverage of the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, their decisions, and what they mean for the economy, investors, and borrowers. Financial markets favour a -25 bps cut, while economists are divided between that and an on-hold decision. The disparate views mean a market reaction is likely whatever happens.
BETTER, BUT NOT GOOD
In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index rose by +2.8% from the prior month to a six-month high of 85.0 in August, although this is still quite a low level. Views on family finances bounced back from last month but remain weak. But there were some clearer signs of support from tax cuts and fiscal measures. Consumers seem less worried about further interest rate increases than last month, and Australians are still untroubled by jobs outlook. However, home-buyer sentiment sank to new lows as price expectations cooled noticeably.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today awaiting tomorrow's RBNZ signals. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +2 bps at 5.38%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps from this time yesterday at 4.03%. The China 10 year bond rate is sown -6 bps at 2.19%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.29% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.26% and down -1 bp from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from this time yesterday at 3.91%. Their 2yr is now at 4.02%, so that curve is little-changed at -11 bps.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LITTLE-CHANGED
The NZX50 is up +0.2% in late trade today. The ASX200 is up +0.1% in their Tuesday afternoon trade. Tokyo is back from holiday with a strong +2.2% rise. Hong Kong is down -0.1% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.1% in its opening trade. Singapore has bounced back +0.9% at its open. Wall Street opened its week with the S&P500 unchanged in its Monday trade. It is the heart of their summer holiday season there.
OIL RISES
The oil price is up +US$2 from this time yesterday, now at US$78/bbl in the US, and at just on US$81/bbl for the international Brent price. Straits of Hormuz tension is a factor.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS IN LIGHT TRADE
Today the carbon price is up +$1 at $53.50/NZU today in light trade. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES BACK UP
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$37 from this morning, now at US$2464/oz and flirting with ATH levels.
NZD FIRM
The Kiwi dollar has continued to firm, up +20 bps from this morning, now at 60.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +20 bps at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are firm at 55.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +20 bps from yesterday at 69.
BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price has risen +1.3% from this time yesterday, now at US$59,473. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.5%.
USE OF AI
No articles on this news service are produced with AI. Occasionally we use AI to derive images. They are always identified in the attribution.
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