A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; TSB goes low, household living costs still above CPI, retail card activity limps, mortgage borrowers bet on more rate cuts, swaps stable, NZD little-changed, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
TSB has cut its one year fixed rate to 5.69%, well below the main banks. More here. It also appears man=in bank apps are no longer offering large discounts for in-app rollovers. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB also trimmed all its TD rates for terms longer than 1 year (except their 18 month rate). Unity Money have trimmed some key TD rates as well. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

TAMER, BUT STILL WAY FASTER THAN CPI INFLATION
Household living cost increases slow - but are still higher than official inflation rate. Stats NZ says its household living-cost price indexes show household costs - including interest payments - rose +3.8% in the year to September.

WELL-PLACED TO COPE
The latest RBNZ financial stability report notes banks expect mortgage defaults to rise even as economy recovers. They say strong profitability has helped banks remain resilient during the recession and means they are well-positioned to cope with rising unemployment.

RISK PRICING HERE TO STAY, & INFLUENCE DECISIONS
The same RBNZ financial stability report says risk-based insurance pricing is a continuing trend and high-risk properties will likely see further, faster increases.

CLIMBING MORE, BUT SLOWLY
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index increased +1.4% in October from September as stronger prices were recorded for all major sectors excluding meat and fibre. Year-on-year they are up +12.8%. In New Zealand dollar terms, the index lifted 3.4% from the prior month to be up more than +10%, as the NZD Trade Weighted Index fell by -1.3%.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATES
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. AirNZ, Precinct and Hallensteins all rose, balanced out however by falls by a2Milk, Oceania, NZX & Freightways. In addition, we have updated the profiles with the year-end results for Oceania Healthcare (OCA, #39), Investor Property (IPL, #41), and Fonterra (FSF, #40).

BIGGER = BETTER = SAFER ???
We reported the October passenger car sales last Friday, but we should have noted that the share that were SUV's rose to a record high 83.9%, andily higher than the previous high in January. Now only 16% of new car sales are traditional sedans.

IS CASHING UP WISE?
Corporate advisers Northington Partners say Fonterra shareholders could reap as much as $2 per share in cash from a successful asset sell-off. That would be a $3 bln bonanza from the sale of household-name retail brands.

LIMPING ALONG
ANZ said its card activity data shows overall card spending was down -1.2% in October from a year ago, but this annual fall has now stabilised. The types of spending most sensitive to interest rates (housing, durables, discretionary spending) are still experiencing the largest falls. Tourism is also well down versus a year ago, likely reflecting more cautious domestic tourism and business travel, they say.

GAMING FUTURE RATES STILL POPULAR
New data out today from the RBNZ (C71) shows that the enthusiasm of owner-occupiers for fixed rate contracts of 6 months was still high in September at 33% of all new loans, but sharply down from the record 38% in August. One year terms are slipping to 28%, 18 month terms are golding at 14%, two year terms are irrelevant now at just 4%. But the floating rate option is now up to a 20% share, its highest in almost 18 months. More here.

CHINA'S SERVICES SECTOR EXPANDS
The Caixin services PMI for China in October largely mirrored the official version, but recording a better expansion than the official version, in a better-than-expected result.

EYES ON THE RBA
The Reserve Bank of Australia will review its cash rate target and related monetary policy settings at 4:30 mp NZT today. No change to the 4.35% policy rate is expected, but more clarity on how they their options related to persistent inflation pressures will be important. We will update this item after the release.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 4.47%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps from this time yesterday at 4.63%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.13%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.63% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.57% and unchanged from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.31% and down -1 bp from yesterday. Their 2yr is down -4 bps at 4.17%, so that curve is now less positive, by +13 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is up +0.3% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.5% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a +1.3% partial recovery. Hong Kong is up +0.2% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.6%. Singapore is down -0.1%. Wall Street was down -0.3% on the S&P500 in Monday trade, relatively calm ahead of the US Presidential Election.

OIL FIRMER AGAIN
The oil price is up +US$1 from this morning, just on US$71.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$75/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE FIRM
The carbon price up +50c today, now at $63.50/NZU in light trade. But that is the highest level in almost 8 months, since mid-March. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD EASES SLLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$5 from yesterday at this time, now at US$2734/oz.

NZD SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.7 AUc. And against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 55 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down a bit more than -10 bps at just under 68.7.

BITCOIN drops
The bitcoin price has fallen -US$1000 from this time yesterday, down +1.5%, now at US$67,931. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».