Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here either, other than SBS trimming -10 bps from its 18 month rate. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
EYES ON NEW FACTORY ORDERS
Although new order intakes slowed to their least contraction in some time, it was about the only 'good news' for a factory sector that continues to contract. Overall it contracted at a faster rate during October, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). Hopefully the new order 'improvement' heralds a turnaround, because without them, nothing is going to improve.
HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE
Update: Stats NZ updated the household savings rate today, but this data lags one year, to March 2023. A way to get this in perspective is by this chart.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Infratil and Freightways posted the largest gains, while The Warehouse Group and Stride Property Group led the decliners
CHANGES AT THE TOP OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE COMMISSION
Alan Bollard has ended its term as Chair of the Infrastructure Commission, to be replaced by Raveen Jaduram, one-time very successful chief executive of Auckland's Watercare (and who was forced out in a messy and misguided political move).
HIDING OVERSEAS DRAWS MORE ATTENTION
The IRD is increasing its efforts to gather child support and student loan debt owed by Kiwis living overseas. They have doubled the staff working in these areas and are looking at new ways to recover debt owed by expats.
CHEESE INFLATION
Overseas the sharp rise in cheese prices is grabbing attention. Organised crime is moving in to take advantage. Even cheddar prices are rising fast, another factor in Fonterra's rising share price.
LIQUIDATION RUSH
Pre-pandemic, there were company liquidations 59 company liquidations administered by MBIE in the 2019/20 year. But in the three months to September 2024 there have been 142, 74 in September alone. ITS/MBIE activity will only be the tip of a growing iceberg, but is probably reflective of the current trend.
RATE CUT HOPES DENTED
In the US, it seems the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” Powell said earlier today in Dallas. “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.” And NY Fed boss Williams said essentially the same thing.
SLOWING EXPANSION
In an economy that faces slowly rising central bank interest rates, Japan reported Q3-2024 GDP growth of +0.9% and down from a +2.2% annualised rate in the previous quarter, which was itself revised down from the previous +2.9%.
PRICES STILL FALLING
On average, Chinese house prices for new homes fell -5.9% in the year to October. That's these official data's largest drop in nine years. But for the first time in a while there were a few cities where they actually rose. For used house sale transactions the October price change was -12% from a year ago. Construction of housing is still deeply negative, even if marginally less so in October.
MORE CHINA DATA
China reported slightly lower industrial production growth for October, but it was still good at +5.3% even if it was less than the expected improvement from September. Electricity production only rose +2.1% in October from a year ago, undercutting the veracity of the industrial production data. They reported better than expected retail sales growth at +4.8% from a year ago, and suggesting some of their stimulus moves are working. But much of this is the previously noted rise in car sales (which involved incentives).
SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably ending the week with a whimper, little-changed. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 4.45%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps from this time yesterday to 4.71%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at just on 2.10%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 4.85% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.76% and up +2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.47% and down -1 bp from yesterday. Their 2yr is up to 4.36%, so that curve is now less positive, now by +11 bps.
EQUITIES STILL MIXED & MINOR
The NZX50 is actually up +0.3% in Friday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a +0.8% gain. Hong Kong is up +0.2% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore is also down -0.1%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade on the S&P500 down -0.6%.
OIL HOLDS
The oil price is little-changed from this time yesterday, still just under US$68.50/bbl in the US, and unchanged at just over US$72/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE FIRMISH
The carbon price is marginally firmer today, but modest volumes again, now at $63.80/NZU. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD STOPS FALLING
In early Asian trade, gold is unchanged from this time yesterday, still at US$2565/oz.
NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.6 AUc. And against the euro we are down -10 bps to 55.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now down another -10 bps at 68.2.
BITCOIN ALSO SLIPS
The bitcoin price has fallen -2.4% from this time yesterday, now at US$88,079. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.9%.
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52 Comments
The Onion has bought the assets of InfoWars - ROTFL
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/533847/the-onion-has-won-the-bid-for-i…
Even The Onion couldn't make this stuff up.
Cannot wait for the new issues of InfoWars BoFH
If you think you had a bad week, spare a thought for Victoria's MInister of Employment. In a keynote conference address to Australias tech elite, including founders of Atlassian and Canva, Bronwyn Halfpenny repeatedly referred to AI as A One. Miss Halfpenny said "A One is going to revolutionise the economy"
When questioned on whether A1 was actually AI she said she mixed it up with the A1 bakery she had visited.
A Halfpenny short of a pound.
Obviously she is not the full quid
When questioned on whether A1 was actually AI she said she mixed it up with the A1 bakery she had visited.
This is gold. Unfortunately it's a reflection of many of our ruling elite. They know jack about many things but pretend that they do. They're not capable of saying 'I don't know'. They just ramble on as if they think they do.
Other culture normals? Good on her she is on the right side of history...unlike the threatened stale pale possums looking a pale shade of white.
The letter, signed by 42 King’s Counsel, expressed how the existing principles were “designed to reflect the spirit and intent of the Treaty as a whole,” and they now represented “settled law”
Note editorial deletion of posts this evening, quite understandably. Appreciate this risks ditto. But just to say in terms of the disagreement frequently on here, often overly rancorous, today being no exception, as to the question of let’s say opposing races in NZ, on Sunday morning fifteen NZ rugby players will take the field against France with representation amongst them of Polynesian & European descent and not only those. They will be joined at some stage by another eight or so. It is a great team who play as a team for the best that they can and for NZ as.a nation without any thought as to their racial heritage. We should be as proud of that as we should be in respect and guided. Written by an old pakeha lock who locked a senior scrum for over five years with a Māori partner, both ancient now with buggered backs, but still as good as brothers.
Rugby is the winner on the day.
Golf came second.
It works so well because all players, irrespective of their ancestry, have to play under the same rules !
It works because none of the team have stolen from their team mates Yvil. There, fixed it for you.
BS, it works because all players have to follow the same rules, and no one gets preferential treatment. Would be wonderful if this was also the case in NZ life, which is exactly what Seymour is aiming for.
My comment was removed for merely suggesting the topic not be discussed as it is detracting from sensible discussion.
I didn't see what came after, but seriously it's becoming ridiculous.
Frankly, I don’t really see why race relations should be discussed on an economics/finance website. Yes ultimately everything connects to economics, but it’s pretty tangential
The editorial staff declared enough is enough on the lead up to the US election and justifiably shut down the topic. Personally I would be in favour of any post that ventures into questions of race in NZ, and argument concerning it, be immediately scrubbed. As you say this is a business and economic forum which does obviously have political considerations but the circuitous, never ending contrary opinions being bandied about on here about racial issues are neither conclusive nor productive and never will be. It is of course hardly an unimportant subject but on this site it has become a side show of a side issue.
That is the point I made, before it was removed.
Well put.
simple policy - any posts on race relations will be scrubbed out
Indeed, and that is precisely what Seymour is trying to achieve, the same rules for everyone, so that the "race" issue becomes a non-event.
That’s precisely what TPM and co want…to shut down anyone speaking up about the apartheid regime they have and want to grow further
Then she left in her V8 motokā
Japanese language has many of these:
コンピューター (konpyūtā) - computer
パソコン (pasokon) - personal computer
テレビ (terebi) - television
アイス (aisu) - ice cream
バス (basu) - bus
レストラン (resutoran) - restaurant
And how many "English" words are made up from other languages too? Greek, latin, french german...
An English speaker of today would be unable to communicate with English speakers of a few centuries back.
News today of the liquidation of a Christchurch real estate company is an interesting one. The liquidator stated to Stuff that the company was the victim of very tough trading times currently in Christchurch. One commentator on this site who states he is from Christchurch regularly reminds us of how healthy the Christchurch real estate market is currently. Obviously things are not as good as he keeps pointing out to us.
Its all Tip Top, when is the HPI out?
The liquidator of a Canterbury Century 21 real estate agency office says an ongoing lack of house sales has made work in the sector increasingly difficult.
“The easy sales are not there any more. It’s a lot harder to get sales over the line,” Hunt said.
In a second case reported in April, shareholders in an Auckland real estate agency declared insolvency, blaming “a big downturn” in house sales, high staff costs and debt for the firm’s failure estimated to be more than $700,000.
“The easy sales are not there any more. It’s a lot harder to get sales over the line,”
Glengarry Glen Ross sums it up.
BLAKE: You got leads. Mitch and Murray paid good money to get their names to sell them. You can't close the leads you're given, then you can't close sh&t! You ARE sh&t! Hit the bricks, pal, and beat it 'cause you are going OUT!
LEVENE: The leads are weak.
BLAKE: “The leads are weak.” Fkng leads are weak? You’re weak.
"when is the HPI out?"
Yesterday ITG, it was out yesterday.
"TheMan" something? He gets techy if you say Wolfbrook or Williams Corp is the next DuVal?
Be good to hear what he thinks about it
Does not effect Him.
Does not effect Swamphead.
Does not ever ever ever effect a Spruiker.
LOL!
Yet, it can also be a verb 🤔
Which Chch RE company went into liquidation please ?
IRD is an interesting one. I rang from overseas, and for the first time since Labour cut their call centre staff by a third actually got to talk to someone!
(Meanwhile, the email response to my query finally arrived 6 months after I sent it).
Unfortunately, I seem to have fallen into a little corner case, as the following conversation went:
Me: Hello, I've received a demand notification for $1,000 for being overseas.
IRD: Yes.
Me: Did you not see that I paid $3,000 during the period the demand covers?
IRD: Yes, but it doesn't count, as it was from a NZ income.
Me: So if I live overseas and earn income overseas, I'm required to pay $1,000?
IRD: Yes.
Me: And if I live in NZ and earn income in NZ I'm required to pay $3,000?
IRD: Yes.
Me: But if I live overseas and earn income in NZ I'm required to pay $4,000? How is that fair?
IRD: We've decided ourselves minimum payments are additive. We'd really like it if you fell behind so that we can irreversibly put you onto the penalty interest rate. Also, don't think about putting the loan into an insolvency - we don't have to legally discharge it.
Insolvency NZ: Say what? We've never heard of this.
So glad I'm not paying taxes to this country anymore.
This is a massive issue right now in NZ, seeing premium increases almost 20%
AFR - Health insurers warn of closures without 6pc premium hike
Health insurers have asked Labor to allow annual premium rises of as much as 6 per cent, warning some funds will collapse or be forced to axe top hospital cover if the amount they charge policyholders does not keep pace with healthcare inflation.
Private Healthcare Australia, which represents health insurers including major players Medibank, Bupa and Nib, also said on Friday that it expected friction with hospital operators, surgical equipment suppliers and parts of the medical profession to increase as soaring costs put pressure on the healthcare system.
.25 BP 27 Nov
I still see 50, after that its real unclear.
The RBNZ really should update their Neutral rate then, because we should be somewhere near neutral right now.
The OCR is nowhere near neutral right now. Note the almost 10 fold increase in insolvencies in this article.
LIQUIDATION RUSH
Pre-pandemic, there were 59 company liquidations administered by MBIE in the 2019/20 year. But in the three months to September 2024 there have been 142, 74 in September alone
Many of those companies expanded to excess and their business models depended on people feeding off a property bubble.
I have seen several plumbing retailer sites go under.
You can have these liquidations quick or slow but the OCR would never save them, a 5-5.75% 2 year fix is as neutral as you will probably see in a high inflation would with trump taking apart global supply chains... while improving US national security at the same time as making America great again.
We are already there with 5.69% on offer sure we will undershoot but we will bounce back
.50
the economy is trash
maybe it’s a slower downwards path next year
Tony Alexander: Where Kiwis plan to splash the cash now rates are falling https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-where-kiwis-plan-to-splas…
Jimbo National gave us all a tax cut, did anyone actually notice they had more cash?
seems to me that base expenses such as power, rates, insurance etc increasing to take up any spare cash
And they didn't peg thresholds to inflation, so technically they are slowly strangling the economy by increasing tax as every day passes.
Fed holds. RBNZ cuts. (They have absolutely no reason to keep the OCR high, and further cripple an already crippled economy). NZD comes under pressure. Imported inflation again? What mess, ay?
Mess indeed.
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