A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes, PMI orders suggest a turn, IRD active chasing offshore non-payers, company liquidations jump, swaps stable, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here either, other than SBS trimming -10 bps from its 18 month rate. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

EYES ON NEW FACTORY ORDERS
Although new order intakes slowed to their least contraction in some time, it was about the only 'good news' for a factory sector that continues to contract. Overall it contracted at a faster rate during October, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). Hopefully the new order 'improvement' heralds a turnaround, because without them, nothing is going to improve.

HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE
Update: Stats NZ updated the household savings rate today, but this data lags one year, to March 2023. A way to get this in perspective is by this chart.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Infratil and Freightways posted the largest gains, while The Warehouse Group and Stride Property Group led the decliners

CHANGES AT THE TOP OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE COMMISSION
Alan Bollard has ended its term as Chair of the Infrastructure Commission, to be replaced by Raveen Jaduram, one-time very successful chief executive of Auckland's Watercare (and who was forced out in a messy and misguided political move).

HIDING OVERSEAS DRAWS MORE ATTENTION
The IRD is increasing its efforts to gather child support and student loan debt owed by Kiwis living overseas. They have doubled the staff working in these areas and are looking at new ways to recover debt owed by expats.

CHEESE INFLATION
Overseas the sharp rise in cheese prices is grabbing attention. Organised crime is moving in to take advantage. Even cheddar prices are rising fast, another factor in Fonterra's rising share price.

LIQUIDATION RUSH
Pre-pandemic, there were company liquidations 59 company liquidations administered by MBIE in the 2019/20 year. But in the three months to September 2024 there have been 142, 74 in September alone. ITS/MBIE activity will only be the tip of a growing iceberg, but is probably reflective of the current trend.

RATE CUT HOPES DENTED
In the US, it seems the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” Powell said earlier today in Dallas. “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.” And NY Fed boss Williams said essentially the same thing.

SLOWING EXPANSION
In an economy that faces slowly rising central bank interest rates, Japan reported Q3-2024 GDP growth of +0.9% and down from a +2.2% annualised rate in the previous quarter, which was itself revised down from the previous +2.9%.

PRICES STILL FALLING
On average, Chinese house prices for new homes fell -5.9% in the year to October. That's these official data's largest drop in nine years. But for the first time in a while there were a few cities where they actually rose. For used house sale transactions the October price change was -12% from a year ago. Construction of housing is still deeply negative, even if marginally less so in October.

MORE CHINA DATA
China reported slightly lower industrial production growth for October, but it was still good at +5.3% even if it was less than the expected improvement from September. Electricity production only rose +2.1% in October from a year ago, undercutting the veracity of the industrial production data. They reported better than expected retail sales growth at +4.8% from a year ago, and suggesting some of their stimulus moves are working. But much of this is the previously noted rise in car sales (which involved incentives).

SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably ending the week with a whimper, little-changed. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 4.45%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps from this time yesterday to 4.71%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at just on 2.10%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 4.85% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.76% and up +2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.47% and down -1 bp from yesterday. Their 2yr is up to 4.36%, so that curve is now less positive, now by +11 bps.

EQUITIES STILL MIXED & MINOR
The NZX50 is actually up +0.3% in Friday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened with a +0.8% gain. Hong Kong is up +0.2% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore is also down -0.1%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade on the S&P500 down -0.6%.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price is little-changed from this time yesterday, still just under US$68.50/bbl in the US, and unchanged at just over US$72/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE FIRMISH
The carbon price is marginally firmer today, but modest volumes again, now at $63.80/NZU. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD STOPS FALLING
In early Asian trade, gold is unchanged from this time yesterday, still at US$2565/oz.

NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.6 AUc. And against the euro we are down -10 bps to 55.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now down another -10 bps at 68.2.

BITCOIN ALSO SLIPS
The bitcoin price has fallen -2.4% from this time yesterday, now at US$88,079. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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