What happened Friday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; more home loan & TD rate cuts, rents softer, credit card use lower, but no credit card stress obvious, Turnbull to Milford, swaps stable, NZD marginally firmer, & more

[updated]

24th Jan 25, 4:00pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Westpac cut some key rates. Details here. SBS Bank also cut its fixed rates. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac cut some key rates. Details here. SBS Bank also cut many TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

RENTS DEMAND SOFTENS
Rents are looking softer in most main centers, Trade Me Property says. The median asking rents in Auckland and the Bay of Plenty declined -1.5% in December according to their data.

FEWER CREDIT CARD BILLINGS
December credit card billings for those issued in New Zealand ended on a soft note with the month down -2.7% and that means every month in 2024 recorded a decline over every month in 2023. For the full year, $45.7 bln was billed on credit cards, -1.8% or $850 mln less than in 2023.

NO OVERALL EVIDENCE OF CREDIT CARD DEBT STRESS
There was $5.6 bln owed on credit cards at the end of December, also less than the same month in 2023. $2.9 bln or 52.1% was incurring interest, and that was less than the $3.0 bln in December 2023 when it was 51.0% of the balances owed. These are both historically low levels. (The 51.0% level is the record low. In January 2001 it was over 76% that incurred interest.)

FROM INSURER TO FUNDS MANAGER
Tower CEO Blair Turnbull, who leaves the insurer on February 12, has been named the new CEO of Milford Asset Management. Tower's CFO, Paul Johnston, will become interim CEO from February 13. Tower's Deputy CFO, Angus Shelton, is set to be interim CFO. Tower has a recruitment process underway for a permanent CEO. Turnbull replaces incumbent, Mark Ryland, who was at Milford since early 2017.

NZX50 SUBDUED
Here are the key changes to know about in the New Zealand equity market. As at 3pm, the NZX50 is flat. Genesis, Kathmandu, Oceania, and Serko are today's biggest gainers with the NZX, Scales, F&P Healthcare, and Channel Infrastructure the biggest decliners

JAPANESE INFLATION RISES
Japanese inflation jumped to 3.6% in December from 2.9% in the November, the highest level since January 2023 and well above the 3.2% level expected. Food prices were a notable driver, up 6.4%. Their core inflation rate climbed to a 16-month high of 3%, in line with market estimates.

EYES ON THE BofJ
This has bolstered the case for the Bank of Japan to raise its policy by +25 bps to 0.5% at their review today [Update} and that is exactly what they did.

JAPAN EXPANDS FASTER IN JANUARY
Meanwhile the Japanese factory PMI contracted a bit more in January than the very minor contraction in December. But their services PMI expanded more in January than in December, and by much more than expected.

SINGAPORE "CUTS"/LOOSENS
Singapore's central bank loosened its monetary policy today, its first such move in more than four years. Rather than interest rates, their monetary policy centers on exchange rates, via the S$NEER, allowing the Singapore dollar to rise or fall against the currencies of major trading partners to stabilise prices.

A NET GAIN BUT INFLATION SIGNALS FLASH LOUDER
Australia's factory PMI contracted noticeably less in January, and now is barely contracting at all. New orders rose, but prices rose faster too. Their service sector however expanded at a slower pace in the month.

TAX CUTS AREN'T BOOSTING CONSUMER DEMAND
And staying in Australia, Westpac is pointing out that tax cuts there are not boosting consumer spending in the way expected. Three quarters of these cuts are being used by households to either pay down debt or increase savings.

SWAP RATES IN FOCUS
Wholesale swap rates could be a little softer today so keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -3 bps on Thursday at 4.02%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.53%. The China 10 year bond rate has risen +2 bps to just on 1.68%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.70% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.66% and down -2 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.64% and up +3 bps from where we were this time yesterday. Their 2yr is down -3 bps to just on 4.27%, so that positive curve is now up at +37 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY FIRM
The NZX50 is virtually unchanged in late trade today. But the ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Friday trade up +0.2%. And Hong Kong is up +0.9% with Shanghai unchanged. Singapore is up a mere +0.1% at its open. Wall Street closed up +0.5% in its Thursday trade on the S&P500 and again taking it to a new record high.

OIL DIPS AGAIN
The oil price is down -US$1 from this time yesterday at over US$74.50/bbl in the US, but only down -50 USc to US$78/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE DIPS
The carbon price is still within its tight range, but dipped today to NZ$63.25/NZU. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$9 from yesterday, now at US$2760/oz.

NZD FIRMISH TOO
The Kiwi dollar has risen +10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 90.4 AUc. But against the euro we are unchanged at 54.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 67.3 and up +10 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN FIRMER
The bitcoin price has moved up +0.3% to US$103,158 from this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.8%.

HOLIDAY ON MONDAY
The upper North Island will be on holiday on Monday. It is also Australia Day. While our service will be running 'normally' it will undoubtedly be a bit thinner than usual. But the world spins on.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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117 Comments

by Yvil | 24th Jan 25, 4:04pm 1737687860

Update on the 14 yo girl with the 2 minders. Today the Police were called in again. I walked into the house, there was a strong burnt smell. The minders explained that the girl put all the elements on max, then put food directly on top, very dangerous !!! I told the minders that if problems continue, she will have to go. Later I asked the girl, "why do you do this?" she replied "who cares?", "I care" I said, she replied "you can't do anything about it anyway", me: "I can ask you to leave" her: "fuck you cunt"….. Unbelievable, from a 14 yo girl. I told the minders what happened and asked them to leave right away.

by Hastings | 24th Jan 25, 4:09pm 1737688148

That’s a really sad story, what has she been through to behave like that? We’ll never know.

by Mountie | 24th Jan 25, 5:37pm 1737693443

A 14 year old girl living without hope in emergency accommodation. Most likely sexual abuse.

by JimboJones | 24th Jan 25, 4:09pm 1737688161

Maybe she wanted someone to care instead of kicking her out?

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jan 25, 4:22pm 1737688940

Two good comments - I wonder if Yvill can allow himself to see.

Yvill - it is the rentier us-vs-them situation, that has produced people like her; which induced the sub-culture from whence she will have come. That has trended worse - more spread, more extreme - as (mainly older) folk have decided they have a 'right' to make capital gains at the expense of others.

Sorry, but 14 is probably getting a little late and a tad tricky. The younger boy might be worth some effort though - you've nothing to lose.

You have some introspection due, perhaps?

by Yvil | 24th Jan 25, 4:30pm 1737689429

So renting Motel rooms to people in need is "the rentier us-vs-them situation, that has produced people like her". That's absolute BS !

by Baywatch | 24th Jan 25, 4:36pm 1737689800

Totally over his head - how surprising PDK?

by JimboJones | 24th Jan 25, 4:46pm 1737690395

Is it a short straw though don't you think? If house prices were say 50% less (way less than it costs to build them), then this girl would be a happy normal kid?

by MacroView | 24th Jan 25, 5:12pm 1737691960

Easy (re reducing house prices). Raise the OCR significantly.

Or abandon state controlled interest rate price-setting altogether.

by JimboJones | 24th Jan 25, 6:35pm 1737696929

It would lower prices but not create affordability. It would actually worsen affordability as building a house would no longer be viable.

by HouseMouse | 24th Jan 25, 7:56pm 1737701772

The rentiers and the cruel poor often have plenty in common, despite the wealth disparity - selfishness, lack of moral compass etc etc

by blobbles | 24th Jan 25, 10:54pm 1737712488

She would have a much, much greater chance of being a happy normal ikid. Why? She would be more likely to have a stable home life, critical to a childs development. Instead she is shuffled from emergency housing to emergency housing, likely with parents who feel hopeless and lost themselves, so can't provide the emotional support and stability required for raising good kids.

This isn't rocket science, work with some poor people and you quickly realise they are at the sharp end of the housing crisis, very hopeless and difficult situation for them that often results in their own repeated downfalls. Sure there are some absolutely hopeless parents, but they aren't the majority.

by Pa1nter | 25th Jan 25, 2:00am 1737723627

I think the problem's much worse than most people realize.

Only because I know social workers and councillors.

The problem is bigger than house prices.

by Foxglove. | 24th Jan 25, 5:13pm 1737691995

It is part and parcel of what generates anger from a position of despair and hopelessness. In other words as I posted yesterday, from living in the poverty trap. . It is as well what stimulates stealing. Firstly hurt the rich target and secondly and more desperately if an individual who hasn’t got what is needed and can’t see any ability to ever get it then what else is there to do other than take it from someone who has got it. What is there to lose, thing can’t get any worse. Hence the bravado, the defiance - this young one’s “who cares.”

by JimboJones | 24th Jan 25, 5:05pm 1737691555

Isn't inequality a necessary evil though? If you could live a great life without working and paying tax, would anyone work? Having just come back from holiday, I wouldn't mind another 11 months of it.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jan 25, 4:50pm 1737690619

I sort of feel sorry for him. As I do a lot of folk who swallowed the growth-is-good, I-have-rights, humans-are-superior narrative.

Stand back a couple more paces, and all of us in NZ are rentiering on forcedly-cheap labour and slack regulations 'somewhere else'. We tell ourselves we're helping them 'up', by 'supporting' their 'wage' (if we think about the stuff we buy ridiculously cheap, at all). But we're allied to the buggest thug of the post WW2 era - which is why those repressed folk don't tell us to eff off.

It will take someone with skills to change someone 14 years into hell - and we are underfunding those services (I'd guess that Yvill voted Nat, Act or at an outside NZF - for his hip pocket (happy to withdraw and apologise :). The repercussions have been - and will continue to be - reduced support for the likes of the 14yo. Follow the dots...

by Pa1nter | 24th Jan 25, 5:38pm 1737693537

Stand back a couple more paces, and all of us in NZ are rentiering on forcedly-cheap labour and slack regulations 'somewhere else'.

Most people want to look at what others have, that they don't, than the other way around.

by Te Kooti | 24th Jan 25, 5:07pm 1737691620

Give him a break, she is not his problem to fix.

Clearly a motel room was never the right solution for her, she needs to be in some sort of secure facility.

by Te Kooti | 24th Jan 25, 5:21pm 1737692476

This situation has generated plenty of discussion. There are a number of very well run Trusts in Auckland that survive off bread crumbs but manage to achieve incredible results for kids such as the 14y old girl. Many focus on Pasifika and Maori boys because, let's be honest, that's ground zero (Pakeha are not excluded, just comparitively small). The charities employ social workers, teachers and mentors to stabilise the situation and get the kids back into education. They use culture and sport as tools.

I won't name them as I'll probably dox myself, but you can contact Foundation North as they fund many of these and are well placed to recommend those worth supporting with good track records (FN are strict with audits and performance)

by Baywatch | 24th Jan 25, 6:07pm 1737695267

Bootcamp Te Kooti?..they have done well in the past?

by interesting1234 | 25th Jan 25, 7:55pm 1737788143

While i see both sides of this situation, if her parents won’t enforce consequences, then he will. The child learns their rebellion to authority results in more distress and dysfunction. Someone has to set boundaries and demand ownership of one’s behaviour, if the child is to move forward and function in modern society.

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Jan 25, 4:55pm 1737690906

by Averageman | 24th Jan 25, 10:01pm 1737709278

If you are renting at motel rates its pure exploitation of the people and the tax payer. Happy days.

by Pa1nter | 25th Jan 25, 2:01am 1737723689

If it's a motel, then the motel rates are the income benchmark

by agnostium | 25th Jan 25, 6:07am 1737738478

No. He can't rent it out at those rates to punters which is why he takes in emergency housing tenants. No emergency housing income and they would have to reduce their rates to attract punters or sell as there is no viable business without the public subsidy.

by RookieInvestor | 25th Jan 25, 6:31am 1737739895

I think it's more like, emergency housing tenants pay more due to the added management, trouble and damage to property. Since motel owners would not take them otherwise

by JimboJones | 24th Jan 25, 4:40pm 1737690052

The "others" get quite a lot from the taxpayer considering they don't put much in. This girl for example has already been provided with a free education, and her parents were probably provided with a free house, food, clothing, etc via a benefit (although it was probably spent on other things). They very rarely appreciate any of this.

by RickStrauss | 24th Jan 25, 4:59pm 1737691150

As do we all, especially our elders who in their turn received free education and affordable housing thanks to taxpayer/govt efforts (and now receive a universal benefit and free chauffeured travel). Some likewise heading for being net-negative contributors. And some who also received the equivalent of years of a benefit because their house got shaken or wet.

by JimboJones | 24th Jan 25, 6:30pm 1737696642

I guess when you think about it, about 50% of us will take more than we put in. Or if you include public debt, the vast majority must take more than they put in.

by RookieInvestor | 24th Jan 25, 4:42pm 1737690144

I think more of the time there is more serious harm done for them to act like that. likely some sort of abuse. very very sad.

but hopefully time will heal the girl.

i think Yvill did a good thing.

by agnostium | 24th Jan 25, 5:08pm 1737691700

by Rampart | 24th Jan 25, 8:35pm 1737704101

So if you had a spare room you’d be letting it out rent free to the less fortunate PDK?

by Yvil | 24th Jan 25, 8:45pm 1737704750

Great question Rampart ! It's much easier to judge and criticise others than to do something yourself.

by 26@Main | 25th Jan 25, 8:11am 1737745912

It's a business decision for you to do it and if you agree to take in those in need of emergency accommodation then you have to expect there will be challenges. Given your commentary you wouldn't do it unless you were financially rewarded well, I think it was Chris Bishop who called it a get rich quick scheme for motel owners.

by powerdownkiwi | 25th Jan 25, 9:20am 1737750034

Two silly comments in a row.

Yes, we have people stay with us, some for months. Never have we charged money - not a cent. We do ask them to pitch in to food and chores, so they're not a load on us. But charge? No.

Try starting with less bias

by RickStrauss | 25th Jan 25, 12:44pm 1737762283

Probably why we see so much punching down on this website, oblivious to the generosity of taxpayer provisions across our own lives.

by Yvil | 24th Jan 25, 4:27pm 1737689235

I took the time to talk to her separately and I literally told her that I cared...

by Baywatch | 24th Jan 25, 4:42pm 1737690173

Maybe some privacy issues here Yvil..perhaps keep it off the channels?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 24th Jan 25, 4:47pm 1737690439

Agreed. Take care, Yvil.

by agnostium | 24th Jan 25, 5:13pm 1737692028

Cared?

Cared about your element?

I'm confused I thought you booted her out because she didn't behave in a way you agreed with.

I'm going to take a punt here but I am guessing the last thing a 14 year old teenage girl who is in such dire straights she has been put in emergency accommodation wants is for a rich middle age white dude to come in and patronise her.

Besides as a taxpayer, sucking at the taxpayers teat, I expect you to suck that up and not be such a snowflake, we're paying good money after all.

by Yvil | 24th Jan 25, 7:17pm 1737699446

"I'm confused I thought you booted her out because she didn't behave in a way you agreed with."

Re-read my post, it's quite clear, I warned her that any more inappropriate behaviour would mean that she would have to leave, then I did tell her to leave when she told me "fuck off, cunt".

What would you have done in my situation Agnostium ?

by agnostium | 24th Jan 25, 7:40pm 1737700853

Left it to her minders to deal with, like I said I imagine you just escalated the situation, unless your trained to deal with 14 year old high risk teenagers.

Isn't your business relationship with KO, not the kid anyway?

by RookieInvestor | 24th Jan 25, 8:05pm 1737702312

@yvill,

the only other thing i would have done is ask her if she is ok and if she needed help, who knows it may have been her minders who were abusing her.

in which case leaving her to her minders to deal with would be a terrible idea.

by 26@Main | 24th Jan 25, 8:48pm 1737704905

by IT GUY | 24th Jan 25, 4:28pm 1737689288

To be in that situation (KO minders) there have a lot of poor decisions from her and many around her, its not likely its all her fault...

However only she can now make the decision to change.

KO can only offer her tools

by HouseMouse | 24th Jan 25, 4:33pm 1737689595

Yes care rather than judge

by JimboJones | 24th Jan 25, 4:23pm 1737689039

You should upgrade to induction cooktops, much less fire risk...

by tis i | 24th Jan 25, 5:00pm 1737691255

She’s 14. A semi formed human. The way she behaves now isn’t necessarily a guide to her adulthood.

by IT GUY | 24th Jan 25, 5:39pm 1737693549

No but we can statistically model a large dataset and its not a great situation she finds herself in here, relative to likely outcomes of a wider dataset.

As I said above only tools and a will to change , will alter her likely path now.

Both cost the tax payer, and its likely that the groups providing these services are underfunded and over subscribed, God help her if she has mental health needs, which statistically is highly likely.

Its not a simple reality to model, least change.

God Bless my kids are not in her situation.

by Advisor | 24th Jan 25, 5:55pm 1737694536

The statistics around mental health needs are quite alarming.

A quarter of New Zealanders currently have poor levels of mental and emotional wellbeing Link

Hard to believe that the issue could be that severe considering, despite all our socioeconomic challenges, the average (and below-avg) Kiwi still has a much better quality of life than their global peers.

by Pa1nter | 24th Jan 25, 6:17pm 1737695833

There's some common aspects to mental wellbeing we're doing the opposite of as a society. Poor socialisation, sedentary lifestyles, shitty diets, continual dopamine seeking, over emphasis on the self, lack of appreciation, etc. recipe for misery.

There's also a body of evidence being formed that suggests an over awareness of mental afflictions exacerbates, rather than reduces it.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jan 25, 6:17pm 1737695857

Yes, that's the biggie.

And globally, we're grossly overshot, so that will only get 'worse'.

But only 'worse' for a lot who have been Bernays-conditioned to think of themselves and their status, by what material items they can claim as 'theirs' (often forgetting the debt portion isn't theirs).

Living on low 'income' can actually be a lot of fun, and very liberating. But you have to have a degree of self-confidence to ignore the what-label-is-that/what years is your car narrative. I remember a year sailing in a 24-foot cat (family of four, sitting headroom only). Shared a bay on Goldsmith Island with Mari Cha 1V. Or maybe it was 111. We were on less than the smell of an oily rag - same place, same sunset, same experience. A lot of it is in our heads.

by Pa1nter | 24th Jan 25, 6:33pm 1737696792

Many of my commercial peers snigger at my mode of transport.

"Why haven't you got a Ford Ranger?"

"Because I'd rather just bugger off at the drop of a hat than expend a minute of energy trying to look the part, for something I'm just going to fill with work crap and pie crumbs"

by Foxglove. | 24th Jan 25, 6:46pm 1737697584

The proliferation of credit cards in the 80s coupled with the radical “opening up” of the economy and more under the Lange/Douglas government proved quite starkly, the point that NZrs didn’t really understand the difference between spending money earned and money borrowed. That lack of understanding has not only not ever been addressed, it took off as if strapped to a rocket.

by JimboJones | 24th Jan 25, 6:23pm 1737696189

I remember watching Seinfeld as a kid, they all had shrinks, I’d never even heard of one. And now 30 years later we’ve caught up to the yanks.

by IT GUY | 24th Jan 25, 9:04pm 1737705885

I do not have a shrink.... brew my own beer though so maybe I just self medicate...

by Pa1nter | 24th Jan 25, 9:41pm 1737708099

"Doctor, my minds all over the place, and I can't focus on anything"

"Sounds like adult ADHD to me. Have some speed, tell all your friends. Before you go, do you ever feel anxious, or depressed? I got something for that too"

by interesting1234 | 25th Jan 25, 8:00pm 1737788407

Amen, everyone needs a productive hobby and it benefits you and your mates!

by speckles | 24th Jan 25, 8:43pm 1737704637

Given how many have terrible work place and coupled with deficient employment law, a bad work environment makes for a great start towards the stats.

by Pa1nter | 24th Jan 25, 6:07pm 1737695261

Apparently most of us is decided by about 7, and the rest by about 14.

That's not to say any of us can't grow and change, but the trajectory is mostly set.

by tis i | 24th Jan 25, 6:34pm 1737696878

Maybe. But one interaction does not a future make.

by Gracey | 24th Jan 25, 7:38pm 1737700729

I work with a lot of people from extraordinary backgrounds - how they keep going inspires me, because so many judgemental people judge them on those exact responses. You took an interest in her, you asked her why. She is just trying to survive and there is no room in her head to take your genuine question. If you keep going, you may reach her, but I know that isn't your job in this context. I follow comments on this site and I can honestly say that the vast majority of people here can not imagine the shit people of been through. The fact some of these youth are still standing, alive, is a miracle in itself. Some aren't And it isn't their fault. How can it be? At 14 she only knows what she has been shown. Short of a miracle it is too late for her - I wish it were different. On a positive note, to end this comment, some people do make it, multiple studies have been done to try and find common personality traits to explain who has a chance, there isn't one. It's very unique and uncommon. I keep treating all of these people despite the odds, because it turns out sometimes we do make a positive difference.

by JimboJones | 24th Jan 25, 4:09pm 1737688186

Seymour wants to sell mour assets. Not sure what we have left?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360558690/david-seymour-flags-asset-sa…

by JimboJones | 24th Jan 25, 4:17pm 1737688667

“How many people here would give up their right to the public healthcare system if they got $6000 for their own private insurance,” he asked.

“Should we allow people to opt out of the public healthcare system, and take their portion of funding with them so they can go private?”

Does Seymour know that health insurance cost changes with age? Can you go back to public once you can't afford it?

by RickStrauss | 24th Jan 25, 4:26pm 1737689192

I get the impression he's strong on ideology but not on thinking things through in depth.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 24th Jan 25, 4:45pm 1737690337

Say what? You've only just formed this impression? (I jest.)

He's been spouting this same uninformed drivel for years. His supporters love it. They have no idea how screwed they'll be should ACT ever get control. Trump / Farage would be so proud.

by RickStrauss | 24th Jan 25, 5:35pm 1737693304

We all know we're supposed to grow out of our teenage Ayn Rand phase...right...right?

by agnostium | 24th Jan 25, 5:17pm 1737692246

He knows exactly what he is doing. The obvious issue is that there will not be enough healthcare to go around.

The public system has to allocate resources based on need.

Seymour represents rich pricks. Rich pricks want health resources to be allocated on how much wealth you have. Privatising health is a way of making sure that can happen.

The alternative is that rich pricks are taxed more to better fund the health system so that there is enough to go around. Rich pricks will never stand for this.

by IT GUY | 24th Jan 25, 5:25pm 1737692721

Surely you understand the rich have tax structures to lower effective tax rates well below typical salary workers.... also almost all CEO and direct reports come with free health.

His problem is, more blood cannot come out of the stone, least the stones decide to move to Aussie.

Most bank works get some health care as part of package.. southern cross etc group care.

As he said health costs have increase from was it 20 to 30 billion in 5 years, hove to we account for that, can we afford to let that increase another 50% to 45 billion by 2030? that would then be 9k per person but how many people are paying tax? maybe 40% ? a huge amount of our tax goes towards immediate healthcare, of which much is in the last few years of life where that person is contributing nothing, and nothing was put aside from there past contributions, its just like NZ super, its a stinking unfunded mess.

Someone needs the balls to put forward a new scheme for our 18year olds as they move forward, the rest IMHO we have to suck it up and possible be subject to some cost recovery.

by agnostium | 24th Jan 25, 5:45pm 1737693925

How do you resolve it? You stop overtaxing productive workers and start taxing wealth. It's very very simple.

The country as a whole has more than enough wealth (public and private) to provide an excellent health system. The issue is the super rich keep sucking up an increasingly big piece of the pie which means the poor worker bees have to pay more. This is by design. The rich pricks then pay people to promote culture war narratives that blame poor people, Maori, drug-addicts, women, the Rainbow Community, immigrants, liberals, wokesters, cyclists, govt bureaucrats, council officers, etc... and suckers suck it up.

The history of human civilisation is the story of a very few people trying desperately to shaft everyone else and everyone else trying to not get shafted. Every now and again everyone else comes together and pushes back against the rich pricks and we make some progress.

by IT GUY | 24th Jan 25, 5:57pm 1737694662

TRIGGER WARNING

Spruikers do not count paper losses and I am not going to count paper gains.... how do you tax unrealised gains , sure perhaps a % on top of rates? If you have a mortgage are we taxing equity? ie paper value less mortgage

at what paper value does one become rich? is your kiwisaver included?

One with a lot in term deposits is equal to one who has property equity ie wealth?

Its way easier to do

Stamp duty
CGT
drumroll, .....inheritance tax

by RickStrauss | 24th Jan 25, 6:16pm 1737695765

You could have taxed realised gains (including paper gains realised as a deposit for a subsequent purchase).

You could also raise LVT on the unimproved value of land and lower taxes on productive enterprise to incentivise those who created value for exports (and this raise living standards).

by IT GUY | 24th Jan 25, 9:06pm 1737705987

if I own 40 acres and I am not allowed to sub divide what exactly is the unimproved value of the land?

by RickStrauss | 25th Jan 25, 12:45pm 1737762322

Very low compared to other land, thus so is your LVT.

by Peter M | 24th Jan 25, 10:29pm 1737710962

It is simple! As soon as you increase the mortgage on a house you already own and occupy you pay income tax on the amount you have increased your previous mortgage with minus your increase in equity in the same home. Example: you have bought a 600k property with a 500k mortgage. Your equity is 100k. You have paid down 20k to your mortgage so your equity is 120k. You want to buy the next Ford Ranger model and you fund it with increasing your mortgage with 50k to 550k. The bank allows that because your house is now values at 670k. (still 120k equity). In my native Netherlands you would be taxed 50 -20 = 30k because you realised that value gain on your property (so called box 3 in The Netherlands) at 36% and used as income to buy your Ford Ranger.

by JimboJones | 24th Jan 25, 6:11pm 1737695508

If there isn’t enough healthcare to go around, how should it be allocated?

For other resources we allocate via money. The problem with making something free is that you are incentivised to consume as much as possible. I am not saying I want a paid healthcare system, but if we can’t afford a free system then we would need some other approach.

by agnostium | 24th Jan 25, 7:35pm 1737700536

Based on need.

by RookieInvestor | 24th Jan 25, 7:59pm 1737701981

not based on race like the previous coalition enforced?

by IT GUY | 24th Jan 25, 4:59pm 1737691158

Agree and 80% at end of life

Needs actuarial work, noting we put nothing aside each year for future costs...

Both parties just doing triage, the long term system is unfunded and IMHO Unfundable with an aging population....

PDK biggest threat to USA not china its unfunded social security and under funded private super schemes, the government employee situation is shocking re entitlements.

maybe it would work if it was sort of endowment funded from 18, that 6k a person, I would like to see an age based distribution of annual cost, you could fund it inside govt, but imho the temptation to grab the $$$ would be too great for most NZ administrations

by RickStrauss | 24th Jan 25, 5:38pm 1737693497

It's looking like a couple more years of National-ACT-First healthcare cuts might see them knocking off our elderly even more successfully than COVID did.

Should consume a bunch of housing wealth via reverse mortgages to fund insurance premiums anyway, if they keep up their work weakening public healthcare.

by IT GUY | 24th Jan 25, 5:51pm 1737694284

Why kill off a population demographic that is more likely to vote winnie Nat or Act?

by RickStrauss | 24th Jan 25, 6:16pm 1737695803

Ideology seems to trump practical sense, in this lot.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jan 25, 6:19pm 1737695992

Seems?

by interesting1234 | 25th Jan 25, 8:06pm 1737788791

Saves money long term? (Dark, but think about it)

by Foxglove. | 24th Jan 25, 4:39pm 1737689965

And who says that the $6000 will be actually spent on health cover unless you have to first pay for it and how exactly would that be managed. And if the cover is not enough, what then. The only easy solution would be a tax rebate on the premium and for that as the good Dr Cullen cynically expressed if you can afford health insurance you don’t need a tax break.

by IT GUY | 24th Jan 25, 5:17pm 1737692248

I have proposed above on here before as a best result for minimum effort. Its actually to get those who can almost afford on private.

Of course even the rich may bulk at costs at age 80, again an investment type product for life may work, very hard to model future costs , easier to model possible current costs.

by Let me be Frank | 24th Jan 25, 5:23pm 1737692580

How much 'money' would be required to guarantee the service (in the appropriate location) when needed?....i would suggest no figure would provide such for an entire population, but a universal service could provide the best we could manage for all.

by IT GUY | 24th Jan 25, 5:27pm 1737692830

Even in the UK many good corporate packages have healthcare.

by Let me be Frank | 24th Jan 25, 6:20pm 1737696015

So does NZ....but you need to define healthcare. My parents both had private policies since the beginning of private insurance but were uncovered for a multitude of conditions and it didnt cover end of life care. The reality is that any health service can only provide that which is available no matter the money available and if the service (think staff/expertise/facilities) are not available (in sufficient quantity) then no amount of funds will suffice.

The best way to provide is to estimate what is required , work out what can be provided, and plan accordingly

by speckles | 24th Jan 25, 8:53pm 1737705193

Our southern cross policy for my family cost more than that pa. and lets face it, in medical terms that is limited cover, very little serious risk covered.

by M0ralHazard | 24th Jan 25, 5:10pm 1737691812

I can't image that $6k insurance would go very far on a fully privatised health service. If you have your hip replaced in a private hospital and there are post op complications, guess where you end up currently? It's a public underwrite of private risk

by IT GUY | 24th Jan 25, 5:35pm 1737693301

Would go a long way for people not likely to claim, but go no where for retired people over 65

by morepork | 24th Jan 25, 5:46pm 1737693993

$6k/year is chump change, Seymour really wants to impoverish us all. As far as I know, the only developed country with a private healthcare system is the US, and they spend >$12k USD per person per year on healthcare. A for profit system is not affordable in NZ unless we deny a significant fraction of the country adequate care.

I guess he's not happy that we have disposable income after the existing rent seekers that he wants to introduce a new one.

by JimboJones | 24th Jan 25, 6:06pm 1737695198

I think the Aussies may have a similar system to what he is proposing?

by paashaas | 24th Jan 25, 6:10pm 1737695417

". As far as I know, the only developed country with a private healthcare system is the US,"

You clearly do not know much. Many countries have a mix of private/public similar to that of the US , with generally better outcomes. US system is reasonably unique in having extremely high costs .

Netherlands system for example is similar - health insurance is mostly private ( but mandatory ) , average costs per capita are about 50% of that in the US . From personal experience I would say Dutch system - while being very far from perfect - functions somewhat better than what we have here in NZ .

by Peter M | 24th Jan 25, 10:34pm 1737711270

I would say as a fellow Dutchman it works far better than in New Zealand and therefore I am privately insured here.

by Gracey | 24th Jan 25, 7:52pm 1737701566

10 years ago it was $65 000 for a cardiac bypass. It's at least, at least! $25 000 for a hip replacement. $7200+ a day in ICU for a respiratory issue eg pneumonia (post sugery), pneumonoitis following the flu. Lets talk numbers David Seymour. And will insurance cover contraception and pregnancy care? Or will it be like the US where you pay for that (healthy pregancy US$35 000). And if you have a baby who needs PICU - see ICU cost. Will insurance cover Mental health care or is he happy to watch the suicide rate get even worse. Will the insurance companies be profit driven ie - you don't get what you put in as a patient because there has to be a company profit. Will the insurance company person, who gets a bonus for saving the company money, get to decide what treatment you should get - rather than the Dr/best medical practice. Does he know that the true cost of a patient walking into a GP is about $140. Will people want to pay that, can they? If they can't what happens then? Lets get it all out - lets get the true cost of healthcare, procedure by procedure, equipment, be transparent. Those who have pets know the true cost, and we can't just put humans down if we can't afford the treatment.

by Gracey | 24th Jan 25, 7:41pm 1737700882

... age and pre-existing conditions. All cardiac kids - no chance, as an example.

by AN Other | 24th Jan 25, 4:24pm 1737689043

Rail, a second time around.

Surely we have some yet-to-be-knighted merchant banker scum that will knock up a business case, settle on a knock down price and go in with others to buy it (then asset strip it some more to get their money back before selling it on again).

Random other bits and pieces:

Housing and Development

Trade Measurement (currently part of MBIE)

Ministry for Regulation (on a Sale and Lease Back arrangement)

Like when John Clarke et al were making "The Games" prior to the Sydney Olympics, it's getting harder to get the satire out before reality sees it happen.

by JimboJones | 24th Jan 25, 4:29pm 1737689367

I wouldn't be worried if they sold the following:

Air NZ
Half of Kiwibank

But they won't get much. I can't think of much else.

by Baywatch | 24th Jan 25, 4:39pm 1737689993

You will own nothing and be happy...I bet they are singing that song around Davos campfires at the moment? Wonder if JK got a invite?

by Advisor | 24th Jan 25, 6:10pm 1737695423

Luxon and Willis sing from JK's songsheet that foreign ownership of local assets is good for the economy. Don't worry about what that does to our current account deficit, which is already at unsustainable levels.

The gov has thought it through: milking more cows and selling the bulk products to our new trading partners will get us there.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 24th Jan 25, 4:40pm 1737690027

Where did Seymour get "Healthcare is costing New Zealanders $6000 per person" from?

And - just to keep things in perspective - how much does Seymour think it should cost?

And most pertinently ... Does he think it'll cost less under the USA model?

Or put another way - We need to have more rigorous disclosure on who is funding charlatans like Seymour.

by agnostium | 24th Jan 25, 5:33pm 1737693235

The privatised USA model is the most expensive and has the worst outcomes on average. Of course, it's great for the super rich. Exactly what Seymour wants.

by Advisor | 24th Jan 25, 6:18pm 1737695919

The US healthcare model is clearly designed to transfer income and wealth from the working classes to the asset-owning classes.

Hospitals and big pharma keep jacking up their prices, meanwhile insurance companies deny claims for no good reason (keeps a good number of insanely overpaid lawyers and experts employed) and yet keep jacking up premiums. This helps large corporations enslave workers who cannot otherwise afford insurance premiums.

As a cherry on top, small businesses cannot bear the high cost of employee benefits such as medical insurance and therefore cannot compete for talent with the big fish.

by Cheetahlegs66 | 24th Jan 25, 6:23pm 1737696221

Why select the USA? I worked in healthcare and have first hand experience as a patient (ECG, echo and MRI) in Switzerland. The level of care is phenomenal, and private insurance is mandatory. Free healthcare is dead. NZ just hasn’t woken up to it. Oh, premiums don’t change as you age.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 24th Jan 25, 7:37pm 1737700656

Methinks you're misrepresenting Healthcare in Switzerland as it's a government regulated scheme and far from the USA model.

by Nzdan | 24th Jan 25, 6:20pm 1737696036

I dunno, non-means tested Superannuation costs New Zealanders $4000 per person and that's including those who receive it. About $4800 if you count only under 65's.

So $6000 per person is probably about right for Healthcare.

by blobbles | 24th Jan 25, 11:01pm 1737712873

Exactly, what an absolute numpty. A fully privatised health care system would be far more expensive for terrible outcomes, USA is the literal example of that.

But him and his donors would have the best care and the best hospitals, essentially paid for by people poorer than them, so of course he wants it.

by M0ralHazard | 24th Jan 25, 5:12pm 1737691959

And it will all be sold off to overseas owners who will want a decent return on their investment. I thought we wanted to improve our balance of payments?

by Squishy | 24th Jan 25, 4:41pm 1737690091

Following the inflation print BoJ raised, as expected:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-24/bank-of-japan-raises…

by J.C. | 24th Jan 25, 6:18pm 1737695897

Gold in JPY is rallying and just broke another all time high. Gold/JPY is +50% since Jan ‘24.

Gold/NZD up to $4,850.

by Baywatch | 24th Jan 25, 5:08pm 1737691685

Go the NZ peso!

by Squishy | 24th Jan 25, 5:12pm 1737691966

We need to start shopping on payday instead of waiting until the weekend when our spending power has been inflated away.

by J.C. | 24th Jan 25, 8:09pm 1737702566

Queensland state govt's interest bill is now equivalent to 11 new hospitals each year.

The numbers are breathtaking. Back in 2019, just before the advent of the pandemic, Queenslanders owed the world $68 billion in the form of gross government debt (for what it is worth, NSW and Victoria owed $62 billion and $51 billion, respectively).

Based on the new mid-year budget published on Thursday, Queensland’s debt will soar to $218 billion by 2028, which means it has managed to burn through $150 billion of taxpayer cash since the crisis.

Since each state has a different population base, one should also consider this indebtedness on a per capita basis. In 2019, NSW and Victoria owed about $8000 per person. The higher infrastructure spending required to support stronger population growth in Queensland contributed to relatively greater debt, summing to about $13,000 per person.

https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/queensland-to-pay-interest-bil…

by IT GUY | 24th Jan 25, 9:14pm 1737706480

Still low per person so lets PARTY ON

by redcows1 | 25th Jan 25, 9:23am 1737750228

Well doh, just add more people is the answer.