A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; TM Property listing load rises, services shift to expansion, migration flows slow, tourist arrivals speed up, a2 Milk has huge cash hoard, swaps and NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Heretaunga Building society trimmed its two year fixed rate to 6.00%. We are expecting a notable change to be announced tomorrow. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heretaunga Building Society cut its 6 month TD rate to 4.90%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

LISTINGS SURGE
Listings on Trade Me Property are at a five year high in January while asking prices were in decline.

10 MONTH CONTRACTION ENDS
The services sector expanded slightly in January, as did the manufacturing sector - results that point toward an economic recovery later in the year.

BACK TO A STEADY STATE?
Population gain from migration dropped below +1000 in December. The outflow of NZ citizens appears to have peaked while inflows of foreign migrants have declined.

GETTING BACK TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS
Overseas tourist arrivals tend to peak in December and this latest month was no different. December visitor arrivals were +12.8% higher than a year ago, approaching 2016 levels. But they were -11% lower than the December 2018 levels. One source of tourists has fully recovered back to pre-pandemic levels - the US.

NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 is up +0.6% in 3pm trade, up +1.5% over the past week, but down -0.5% over the past month. There were 45 gainers today, led by a2 Milk's +17% rise on a strong interim earnings report. (And the company now has $1 bln in cash reserves!) Synlait has risen a similar rise. Freightways is up +2.0, and Spark up +1.7%. There were 35 decliners, led by Kathmandu down -2.4%, Mercury down -2.0%, manawa Energy down -1.7%, and Auckland Airport down -1.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare was up 1.0% today

A SLOW START TO THE WEEK
Global financial markets will head into Tuesday (NZT) trade quiet because it is Presidents Day in the US. Wall Street will not be open, nor banks.

POWDER SHED PENALTY
Rangi Wyatt Stephen Savage Senior has been ordered to pay compensation of $126,214 to investors and a pecuniary penalty of $142,500 for breaching the Financial Markets Conduct Act in a High Court judgment. The proceedings were based on a regulated public offer for the sale of shares in The Powder Shed Tokoroa Limited (Powder Shed). Mr Savage was the sole director of Powder Shed. The High Court found Mr Savage breached the FMCA by making false or misleading representations, making a regulated offer without a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), and accepting an application for a transfer of financial products without a PDS.

CONSERVATIVE MORTGAGE BOOK
In its October-December 2024 quarterly update, Westpac Group presentation documents showed a small uplift in 30+ day mortgage arrears to 1.08%. It has been a long time since this metric has exceeded 1%, even if it is still very low. 91% of their New Zealand mortgage book has an LVR of 80% or less; 50% is less than 60%.

COVID ECHOES
An Auckland man was sentenced to community detention for tax fraud after falsely claiming $23,600 in COVID relief money. Vaibhav Kaushik was charged with using a document to claim a pecuniary advantage and was sentenced in the Auckland District Court to six months community detention – the maximum allowed – and the judge ordered reparation to be paid in full by 1 April 2025. The defrauded money was used it for personal items and gambling.

SWAP RATES PROBABLY LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps on Friday at 3.82%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.49%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 1.68%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +7 bps at 4.68% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.61% and up +2 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.59% and up +1 bp from this morning. Their 2yr is unchanged at 4.26%, so that positive curve is still at +23 bps where it was on Friday.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is up +0.6% in late Monday trade. But the ASX200 is down -0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is unchanged in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.6%, but Shanghai is down a minor -0.1% its open. Singapore has opened up +0.4%. Wall Street won't be opening tomorrow due to their holiday. But the futures market indicates taht a +0.4% rise is on the cards when they do on Wednesday NZT.

OIL UNCHANGED
The oil price is unchanged from this morning, now just on US$70.50/bbl in the US, and at over US$74.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED YET AGAIN
The carbon price is still within its tight range, today still at NZ$63/NZU. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMs
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$13 from this morning, now at US$2895/oz.

NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar has risen +10 bps from this morning, now at 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 90.20 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 54.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 67.4 and up +10 bps.

BITCOIN SLIPS
The bitcoin price is down -0.5% from this morning's open, now at US$96,562. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».